Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) analysts settle on bullish outlooks after impressive Q3 Earnings
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) revealed an impressive third-quarter in terms of production, deliveries, and profitability during its Q3 Earnings Call on October 21st. The quarter was referred to as “our best quarter in history” by CEO Elon Musk, and analysts at various Wall Street firms have revised their price target outlooks for the electric automaker.
Analysts at Baird, JMP Securities, Oppenheimer, Wedbush, and Canaccord Genuity all revised their outlooks for Tesla’s stock by increasing their price targets. The boost in PTs without a doubt came from Tesla’s impressive Q3 performance, but each analyst had their own reasoning for the figure they came up with.
Baird
Baird analysts Ben Kallo and David Katter bumped their price target to $488 from $450, marking the second time they’ve upgraded Tesla’s outlook in October. The Baird analysts also upgraded TSLA shares to “Outperform.” Interestingly, Kallo and Katter’s note to investors indicated that they were wrong for downgrading the stock to a “Neutral” rating in January, stating that their move was “too early.” After their revised “Neutral” rating, TSLA shares soared over 400% on the year.
“Clearly incorrect, we are now upgrading share as we think TSLA has the substantial access and ability to deploy capital, and has multiple ways to drive substantial revenue growth,” Baird’s note said to investors. “Tesla’s competitive moat over peers is substantial (and growing, enabled buy rapid capital deployment) and we think it is unlikely traditional OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] will be able to effectively compete over time.”
JMP Securities
Joseph Osha and Hilary Cauley of JMP Securities boosted their price targets for TSLA stock to $516 after the Q3 Earnings Call. The two analysts also upgraded the stock with an “Outperform” rating.
“In terms of the stock, we have tried to keep our eye on the horizon as opposed to being influenced by quarter-to-quarter developments. Even though commentary yesterday caused us to raise our outlook for 2021, it does not by itself give us cause to change our stance on the stock,” JMP wrote to investors in a note. “That said, we do believe the outlook for margins and for cash flow generation over the next several years appears to be higher than we thought. This impacts not only our financial model, but also the level of risk we assign to our 2025 outcome and the multiple we apply.”
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch boosted his price target to $486 from $451 and also placed an “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock. Rusch is a notable Tesla bull who has advised long-term investors to buy the automaker’s stock “on any near-term weakness.” Additionally, Rusch has stated in the past that perhaps Tesla’s biggest advantage is software and Over-the-Air Updates, which have stumped legacy automakers.
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In terms of the Q3 Earnings Call, Rusch’s outlook is based on financials and Tesla’s future developments. “We are encouraged by improving manufacturing margins and factory throughput, which gives us comfort in raising out-year GM estimates and PT,” he said. “We are watching closing for accelerating growth in recurring revenue from insurance, financing, software-driven applications like robotaxi’s, which may begin to shift valuation multiples higher.”
Wedbush
Wedbush’s Dan Ives boosted his Bull Case price target to $800 following the Q3 Earnings Call and reflects on the potential of Giga Shanghai’s output as a clear indicator of Tesla’s future success. While his base price target remained at $500 with a “Neutral” rating, Ives does see overwhelming EV demand growth playing out in Tesla’s favor.
“China remains the ‘hearts and lungs’ of the Tesla demand growth story playing out over the next year along with underlying Europe EV strength playing out in the field,” Ives wrote. “We are raising our bull case from $700 to $800 reflecting these improving demand/profitability dynamics heading into 2021 for Tesla despite a soft macro and COVID backdrop.”
Canaccord Genuity
Jed Dorsheimer of Canaccord Genuity maintained a “Hold” rating but boosted his price target to $419 from $377. Dorsheimer’s main outlook has been boosted based on Tesla’s focus on automotive manufacturing, which has been a main concern moving forward to increase efficiency and production output.
“TSLA remains a juggernaut in the EV space that deserves credit for the vision and willingness to challenge the status quo in auto manufacturing. We maintain our HOLD rating though, as we feel the bull-bear debate is unlikely to abate and valuation appears rich by any standard,” Dorsheimer’s note to investors stated.
Tesla recorded its fifth-consecutive quarterly profit, non-GAAP earnings of $0.76 per share, $809M GAAP operating income and a $5.9B increase in cash and cash equivalents.
Tesla (TSLA) crushes Q3 earnings with record profit, accelerates global growth
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Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
SpaceX stock did the opposite of what most of Wall Street expected this week, when the day designed to be its most dangerous turned into a rally, and the rally kept going.
Thursday marked the first major lockup expiration since SpaceX’s June IPO, making roughly 911.5 million insider held shares eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the company’s public float. Analysts and short sellers had spent weeks bracing for a flood of selling, especially after the stock fell 13 percent following its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. Instead, shares rose 6.1 percent Thursday to close at $114.92, and by Friday they were trading near $129, up more than another 12 percent on the day.
SpaceX shorts get warned by Musk ally, echoing Tesla’s early struggles
The setup made the outcome notable. Short interest had climbed to roughly 34 percent of the float heading into earnings, among the highest of any large cap stock, with about 95 percent of available shares to borrow already on loan. CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers twice in the weeks before the lockup, writing on X that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” then following up on the morning of earnings with “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
When the newly unlocked shares hit the market and the selloff never showed up, some of that short position appears to have started unwinding. TipRanks reported that options activity shifted toward bullish strategies like put selling and risk reversals following the rally, with roughly $600 million in options premium trading Thursday alone. Retail buyers also stepped in during the earnings dip, according to Vanda Research.
The fundamentals behind the stock have not changed much in a week. SpaceX’s revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and the company’s AI segment growing 247 percent. What spooked investors on Tuesday was the spending side. Capital expenditures jumped to more than $18 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with AI investment alone rising from $749 million to $15.8 billion. Wall Street remains split on whether that spending is building infrastructure SpaceX needs or outrunning what the business can currently support, a debate Teslarati has tracked since shares first came under pressure.
None of that resolves the bigger question hanging over the stock. Thursday’s release was only the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, with roughly $800 billion worth of additional shares scheduled to become eligible through October, and Musk’s own stake stays locked until next June. If this week is any indication, the market is treating that supply as something it can absorb rather than something to fear, at least for now.
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Cybertruck
Tesla Cybertruck production snaps back after ugly supplier fight
Cybertrucks are piling up again at Giga Texas after Tesla’s court win against a parts supplier.
Cybertruck production at Giga Texas is showing its first visible recovery since Tesla sued a supplier last month over withheld manufacturing tooling.
Aerial observer Joe Tegtmeyer flew over the Austin factory Wednesday morning and counted roughly 100 or more Cybertrucks filling the outbound lot, a sharp jump from the thin numbers seen in recent weeks. The flyover came a day after a judge granted Tesla a temporary restraining order against Angstrom Automotive Group, the parts supplier at the center of the dispute.
Tesla filed an emergency lawsuit in late July after Angstrom told the automaker it planned to close the Troy, Texas facility where Tesla’s die-cast tools, trim dies and other Cybertruck stamping equipment were housed. According to Tesla’s complaint, a shipment of 700 finished parts never left the building, and when Tesla sent representatives to retrieve its equipment, accompanied by law enforcement, they were turned away. Angstrom allegedly then asked for an extra $250,000 a week to keep operating, which Tesla’s filing described as holding its own property for ransom.
TESLA: U.S. District Judge Christopher R. Wolfe of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, Waco Division granted Tesla a Temporary Restraining Order and Writ of Replevin in its dispute with Angstrom Automotive (Case No. 6:26-cv-00477).
The order authorizes… https://t.co/E1DKcQSxMn pic.twitter.com/LR8aAiV2Og
— S.E. Robinson, Jr. (@SERobinsonJr) August 5, 2026
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The restraining order gives Tesla immediate right of entry to Angstrom’s facility to recover the tooling. It is temporary, with a fuller hearing still to come, but the speed of Wednesday’s rebound suggests the Angstrom shortage was indeed the main bottleneck limiting Cybertruck output. Outbound lot counts are an imperfect measure of actual production, since finished trucks can sit for days before shipping, but a lot that full after a lean stretch is a meaningful signal.
Cybertruck output at Giga Texas has fluctuated all year as Tesla worked through supply issues and introduced new trims, including a cheaper Dual Motor AWD version that drew strong early demand.
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has cautioned investors shorting SpaceX shares, drawing a direct parallel to the intense short-selling pressure Tesla faced in its early public years.
Responding to reports of elevated short interest in the newly public rocket, satellite, and AI company, Palihapitiya noted that similar dynamics played out with Tesla, where aggressive short sellers ultimately “went broke.”
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12, 2026, in the largest IPO on record, pricing at $135 per share. Shares quickly surged to an all-time high of $225.64 just days later, briefly implying a valuation exceeding $2 trillion. The stock has since retreated sharply amid valuation concerns, lockup expiration fears, and broader market dynamics.
By early August, it traded near $108–$125, representing a roughly 50 percent decline from the peak and bringing the market capitalization closer to the $1.5–1.7 trillion range. On August 4, shares closed up more than 9 percent at $125.33 ahead of earnings before facing pressure in after-hours and premarket trading.
Short interest has climbed dramatically. According to S3 Partners data widely cited in market reports, short positions reached approximately 219.3 million shares by late July, about 34 percent of the limited public float of roughly 640 million shares, and represented a notional value of around $24.6 billion.
Utilization of shares available to borrow hit 95 percent, with borrow fees rising. This level of shorting exceeded the dollar value of short bets against Tesla at the time and built rapidly ahead of two catalysts: the company’s first post-IPO earnings and an August 6 lockup expiration that could free up to 911.5 million additional shares.
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CEO Elon Musk has issued warnings of his own. In mid-July, as short interest approached one-third of the float, he posted that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” reiterating his view that the company could ultimately be worth more than Earth if it achieves its goals.
On August 4, just before earnings, Musk responded to the latest short-interest data by saying, “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
SpaceX delivered its first quarterly results as a public company after the close on August 4. Second-quarter revenue rose 92 percent year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating consensus estimates near $6.8–6.9 billion.
The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or 9 cents per share, better than the roughly 23–24 cent loss expected. Starlink/connectivity contributed about $4.3 billion (up 66 percent), while the AI business generated $2.6 billion (up roughly 250 percent). Capital expenditures were heavy at $18.4 billion, largely tied to AI infrastructure. Management projected a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end 2026 and outlined a path toward $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
The combination of Chamath’s historical reminder, Musk’s repeated alerts, and the company’s ambitious growth targets underscores the high-stakes debate surrounding SPCX. Short sellers are positioned for near-term supply pressure from the lockup, while long-term bulls point to Starlink scale, Starship progress, and AI compute expansion as reasons the bears may ultimately face the same fate as many early Tesla skeptics.
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