Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 Earnings is ‘one of the most important’ for Elon Musk and Co.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) fourth-quarter earnings call is being described as “one of the most important” for CEO Elon Musk and Co. by an analyst.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives describes tomorrow’s earnings as crucial, especially based on Musk’s potential comments regarding 2023 delivery targets, automotive gross margins, and overall outlook for the company moving forward.
While every quarter is important for Tesla we would highlight tomorrow’s call/guidance commentary as one of the most important moments in the history of Tesla and for Musk. Delivery targets for 2023 (1.8 mm the bogey), Auto gross margins, and Musk commentary/outlook key tmrw
— Dan Ives (@DivesTech) January 24, 2023
Tesla’s 2023 Delivery Targets
After delivering a million units in a year for the first time in 2022, with 1.313 million cars delivered globally, Tesla is still going to be looking for year-over-year growth.
“Over a multi-year horizon we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries,” Tesla wrote in its Q3 2022 earnings shareholder deck. “The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, factory uptime, operational efficiency, and the capacity and stability of the supply chain.”
This was a 40 percent increase from 2021 figures. However, it is not necessarily straightforward.
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Tesla dealt with some production shutdowns last year in Shanghai, its biggest contributor to global manufacturing for the past two years. With ramp-ups continuing at Berlin, and products like the Cybertruck expected to launch this year in Texas, along with surges in demand thanks to price decreases, Tesla is sure to see growth this year. However, Ives seems interested in what Musk’s synopsis of the full year could be.
Automotive Gross Margins
After Tesla cut prices globally by as much as $13,000 in the United States and 13 percent in other markets, consumers felt the positives as the cars became more affordable. However, from an investor standpoint, it is much more complicated.
Tesla had the third-best operating margins globally, trailing only Ferrari and BMW. In Q3, the company posted 27.9 percent automotive gross margins, which was unchanged from Q2 but a decrease from the 32.9 percent the company posted in Q1.
Price cuts from Tesla were seen as a way to trigger global demand, which many analysts felt the company was battling against as more competitors entered the EV sector. However, Tesla had raised prices many times over the past two years due to supply chain issues. It seems, while the automaker was making so much per unit, consumers were still looking for an affordable yet competitive EV option from the company.
Overall Outlook for 2023
Perhaps the biggest question on the minds of Tesla investors, especially the company’s “permabulls,” is whether Musk’s attention will remain fixated on Tesla or Twitter. While his acquisition of the social media platform has seemed to take up much of Musk’s time, he has recently solidified that Tesla is the priority.
This has not alleviated the drop the stock felt last year, as Tesla shares dropped over 60 percent in 2022. Slightly recovering so far in 2023 with a 32 percent increase in value so far this year, investors will likely want to know what Musk’s overall plans are for Tesla, and what his potential level of commitment will be.
Many are still questioning how the CEO is splitting his time between the two companies. However, with Tesla expecting to ramp up several projects this year, including a new Semi production facility and the aforementioned Cybertruck, Musk could have his hand in more of the Tesla pie through 2023 than he did in late 2022.
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Ives said in a note to investors:
“Tesla is Musk and Musk is Tesla. With all the worries about Musk’s attention on Twitter, selling Tesla stock, name a new Twitter CEO, and other noise created by this ongoing soap opera….this is a key moment of truth for Musk. Elon needs to give investors comfort around this tight wire balancing act and reiterate his goals for the year and lay out the strategic vision despite a near-term dark macro. Musk is not shy about his negative view of the economy, but how does that weave in with Tesla’s outlook? Also Musk giving some insight into the China situation, Twitter situation will be in the bright spotlight for the Street.”
Wedbush has a $175 price target and maintained its Outperform rating. The firm said it “ultimately believe[s] tomorrow’s call/guidance will be one of the most important moments in Tesla’s (and Musk’s) history.”
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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SpaceX stock did the opposite of what most of Wall Street expected this week, when the day designed to be its most dangerous turned into a rally, and the rally kept going.
Thursday marked the first major lockup expiration since SpaceX’s June IPO, making roughly 911.5 million insider held shares eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the company’s public float. Analysts and short sellers had spent weeks bracing for a flood of selling, especially after the stock fell 13 percent following its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. Instead, shares rose 6.1 percent Thursday to close at $114.92, and by Friday they were trading near $129, up more than another 12 percent on the day.
SpaceX shorts get warned by Musk ally, echoing Tesla’s early struggles
The setup made the outcome notable. Short interest had climbed to roughly 34 percent of the float heading into earnings, among the highest of any large cap stock, with about 95 percent of available shares to borrow already on loan. CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers twice in the weeks before the lockup, writing on X that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” then following up on the morning of earnings with “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
When the newly unlocked shares hit the market and the selloff never showed up, some of that short position appears to have started unwinding. TipRanks reported that options activity shifted toward bullish strategies like put selling and risk reversals following the rally, with roughly $600 million in options premium trading Thursday alone. Retail buyers also stepped in during the earnings dip, according to Vanda Research.
The fundamentals behind the stock have not changed much in a week. SpaceX’s revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and the company’s AI segment growing 247 percent. What spooked investors on Tuesday was the spending side. Capital expenditures jumped to more than $18 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with AI investment alone rising from $749 million to $15.8 billion. Wall Street remains split on whether that spending is building infrastructure SpaceX needs or outrunning what the business can currently support, a debate Teslarati has tracked since shares first came under pressure.
None of that resolves the bigger question hanging over the stock. Thursday’s release was only the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, with roughly $800 billion worth of additional shares scheduled to become eligible through October, and Musk’s own stake stays locked until next June. If this week is any indication, the market is treating that supply as something it can absorb rather than something to fear, at least for now.
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Cybertruck
Tesla Cybertruck production snaps back after ugly supplier fight
Cybertrucks are piling up again at Giga Texas after Tesla’s court win against a parts supplier.
Cybertruck production at Giga Texas is showing its first visible recovery since Tesla sued a supplier last month over withheld manufacturing tooling.
Aerial observer Joe Tegtmeyer flew over the Austin factory Wednesday morning and counted roughly 100 or more Cybertrucks filling the outbound lot, a sharp jump from the thin numbers seen in recent weeks. The flyover came a day after a judge granted Tesla a temporary restraining order against Angstrom Automotive Group, the parts supplier at the center of the dispute.
Tesla filed an emergency lawsuit in late July after Angstrom told the automaker it planned to close the Troy, Texas facility where Tesla’s die-cast tools, trim dies and other Cybertruck stamping equipment were housed. According to Tesla’s complaint, a shipment of 700 finished parts never left the building, and when Tesla sent representatives to retrieve its equipment, accompanied by law enforcement, they were turned away. Angstrom allegedly then asked for an extra $250,000 a week to keep operating, which Tesla’s filing described as holding its own property for ransom.
TESLA: U.S. District Judge Christopher R. Wolfe of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, Waco Division granted Tesla a Temporary Restraining Order and Writ of Replevin in its dispute with Angstrom Automotive (Case No. 6:26-cv-00477).
The order authorizes… https://t.co/E1DKcQSxMn pic.twitter.com/LR8aAiV2Og
— S.E. Robinson, Jr. (@SERobinsonJr) August 5, 2026
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The restraining order gives Tesla immediate right of entry to Angstrom’s facility to recover the tooling. It is temporary, with a fuller hearing still to come, but the speed of Wednesday’s rebound suggests the Angstrom shortage was indeed the main bottleneck limiting Cybertruck output. Outbound lot counts are an imperfect measure of actual production, since finished trucks can sit for days before shipping, but a lot that full after a lean stretch is a meaningful signal.
Cybertruck output at Giga Texas has fluctuated all year as Tesla worked through supply issues and introduced new trims, including a cheaper Dual Motor AWD version that drew strong early demand.
Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has cautioned investors shorting SpaceX shares, drawing a direct parallel to the intense short-selling pressure Tesla faced in its early public years.
Responding to reports of elevated short interest in the newly public rocket, satellite, and AI company, Palihapitiya noted that similar dynamics played out with Tesla, where aggressive short sellers ultimately “went broke.”
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12, 2026, in the largest IPO on record, pricing at $135 per share. Shares quickly surged to an all-time high of $225.64 just days later, briefly implying a valuation exceeding $2 trillion. The stock has since retreated sharply amid valuation concerns, lockup expiration fears, and broader market dynamics.
By early August, it traded near $108–$125, representing a roughly 50 percent decline from the peak and bringing the market capitalization closer to the $1.5–1.7 trillion range. On August 4, shares closed up more than 9 percent at $125.33 ahead of earnings before facing pressure in after-hours and premarket trading.
Short interest has climbed dramatically. According to S3 Partners data widely cited in market reports, short positions reached approximately 219.3 million shares by late July, about 34 percent of the limited public float of roughly 640 million shares, and represented a notional value of around $24.6 billion.
Utilization of shares available to borrow hit 95 percent, with borrow fees rising. This level of shorting exceeded the dollar value of short bets against Tesla at the time and built rapidly ahead of two catalysts: the company’s first post-IPO earnings and an August 6 lockup expiration that could free up to 911.5 million additional shares.
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CEO Elon Musk has issued warnings of his own. In mid-July, as short interest approached one-third of the float, he posted that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” reiterating his view that the company could ultimately be worth more than Earth if it achieves its goals.
On August 4, just before earnings, Musk responded to the latest short-interest data by saying, “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
SpaceX delivered its first quarterly results as a public company after the close on August 4. Second-quarter revenue rose 92 percent year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating consensus estimates near $6.8–6.9 billion.
The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or 9 cents per share, better than the roughly 23–24 cent loss expected. Starlink/connectivity contributed about $4.3 billion (up 66 percent), while the AI business generated $2.6 billion (up roughly 250 percent). Capital expenditures were heavy at $18.4 billion, largely tied to AI infrastructure. Management projected a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end 2026 and outlined a path toward $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
The combination of Chamath’s historical reminder, Musk’s repeated alerts, and the company’s ambitious growth targets underscores the high-stakes debate surrounding SPCX. Short sellers are positioned for near-term supply pressure from the lockup, while long-term bulls point to Starlink scale, Starship progress, and AI compute expansion as reasons the bears may ultimately face the same fate as many early Tesla skeptics.
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Elon Musk and SpaceX shrugs off the trading day Wall Street feared most
