Investor's Corner
Tesla crushes expectations by wrapping up 2021 with 936k vehicle deliveries
Tesla has released its fourth-quarter and full-year vehicle production and delivery report, and it is quite incredible. Over the course of 2021, Tesla produced an extremely impressive 930,422 vehicles. Full-year deliveries were even more insane, with the EV maker completing 936,172 handovers during the year.
As per the company’s report, Tesla produced a total of 24,390 Model S and Model X and 906,032 Model 3 and Model Y in 2021. Among the 936,172 vehicles delivered, 24,964 were Model S and Model X and 911,208 were Model 3 and Model Y. The numbers prove the strength of vehicles like the Model 3 and Model Y in their respective segments, as both vehicles received multiple price adjustments over the year.
Production & deliveries in Q4 exceeded 300k vehicles https://t.co/xE7LnWG0va
— Tesla (@Tesla) January 2, 2022
The fourth quarter’s results are nothing to scoff at either. In Q4 2021, Tesla produced a total of 305,840 vehicles comprised of 13,109 Model S and Model X and 292,731 Model 3 and Model Y. Tesla also delivered a total of 308,600 vehicles comprised of 11,750 Model S and Model X and 296,850 Model 3 and Model Y.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2021 production and delivery results are pretty amazing, and they easily beat consensus estimates from analysts. FactSet consensus pointed to Tesla delivering 267,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter and 897,000 for the full year of 2021.
Tesla easily beats consensus estimates on Q4 and 2021 deliveries. $TSLA Delivered 308,600 in Q4 vs. estimate of 267K and 936,172 for 2021 vs the Factset consensus of 897K
— Phil LeBeau (@Lebeaucarnews) January 2, 2022
Needless to say, Tesla had an extremely successful 2021. This was despite headwinds such as a chip shortage, a supply chain crisis, and an increasing number of competition from both new EV makers and veteran automakers. The coming year would likely be even better for Tesla, as the company is still looking to optimize its operations in Giga Shanghai while commencing vehicle production in Giga Berlin and Gigafactory Texas.
Below is Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2021 vehicle production and delivery report.
AUSTIN, Texas, January 2, 2022 – In the fourth quarter, we achieved production of more than 305,000 vehicles and deliveries of over 308,000 vehicles. In 2021, we delivered over 936,000 vehicles.
Thank you to all of our customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders and supporters who helped us achieve a great year.
Q4 2021
| Production | Deliveries | Subject to operating lease accounting | |
| Model S/X | 13,109 | 11,750 | 17% |
| Model 3/Y | 292,731 | 296,850 | 5% |
| Total | 305,840 | 308,600 | 5% |
2021
| Production | Deliveries | ||
| Model S/X | 24,390 | 24,964 | |
| Model 3/Y | 906,032 | 911,208 | |
| Total | 930,422 | 936,172 |
***************
Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q4 earnings. Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook
Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.
Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.
Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.
While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.
The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.
Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings
Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.
They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.
Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.
Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.
Ives said in a note on October 2:
“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”
Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.
Investor's Corner
Bank of America raises Tesla PT to $471, citing Robotaxi and Optimus potential
The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.
Bank of America has raised its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target by 38% to $471, up from $341 per share.
The firm also kept a Neutral rating on the electric vehicle maker, citing strong progress in autonomy and robotics.
Robotaxi and Optimus momentum
Bank of America analyst Federico Merendi noted that the firm’s price target increase reflects Tesla’s growing potential in its Robotaxi and Optimus programs, among other factors. BofA’s updated valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model extending through 2040, which shows the Robotaxi platform accounting for 45% of total value. The model also shows Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus contributing 19%, and Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Energy segment adding 17% and 6% respectively.
“Overall, we find that TSLA’s core automotive business represents around 12% of the total value while robotaxi is 45%, FSD is 17%, Energy Generation & Storage is around 6% and Optimus is 19%,” the Bank of America analyst noted.
Still a Neutral rating
Despite recognizing long-term potential in AI-driven verticals, Merendi’s team maintained a Neutral rating, suggesting that much of the optimism is already priced into Tesla’s valuation.
“Our PO revision is driven by a lower cost of equity capital, better Robotaxi progress, and a higher valuation for Optimus to account for the potential entrance into international markets,” the analyst stated.
Interestingly enough, Tesla’s core automotive business, which contributes the lion’s share of the company’s operations today, represents just 12% of total value in BofA’s model.
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst: ‘near zero chance’ Elon Musk’s $1T comp package is rejected
“There is a near-zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting.”
A Tesla analyst says there is “zero chance” that CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package is rejected, a testament to the loyalty and belief many shareholders and investors have in the frontman.
Tesla investors will vote on November 6 at the annual Shareholder Meeting to approve a new compensation package for Musk, revealed by the company’s Board of Directors earlier this month.
The package, if approved, would give Musk the opportunity to earn $1 trillion in stock, an ownership concentration of over 27 percent (a major request of Musk’s), and a solidified future at the company.
The Tesla Community on X, the social media platform Musk bought in 2023, is overwhelmingly in favor of the pay package, though a handful of skeptics remain.
Nevertheless, the big pulls of this vote are held by proxy firms and other large-scale investors. Two of them, Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis, said they would be voting against Musk’s proposed compensation plan.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm
Today, the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA) said it would vote in favor of Musk’s newly-proposed pay day, making it the first large-scale shareholder to announce it would support the CEO’s pay.
One analyst said that Musk’s payday is inevitable. Gary Black of the Future Fund said today there is a “near-zero chance” that shareholders will allow Musk’s pay package to be rejected:
“There is a near-zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting.”
He added an alternative perspective from Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who said that he had a better chance of starting for the New York Yankees than the comp package not being approved.
There is a near zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting. As Wedbush analyst Dan Ives (@divestech) colorfully put it in a Yahoo Finance interview on October 23rd: “I have a better chance of starting for…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 27, 2025
Black’s the Future Fund sold its Tesla holdings earlier this year. He explained that the firm believed the company’s valuation was too disconnected from fundamentals, citing the P/E ratio of 188x and declining earnings estimates.
The firm maintained its $310 price target, and shares were trading at $356.90 that day.
Shares closed at $452.42 today.
The latest predictions from betting platform Kalshi have shown Musk’s comp package has a 94 percent chance of being approved:
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 20, 2025
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