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Tesla (TSLA) shows recovery amid analyst’s bullish outlook after Fremont factory tour

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Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) started showing some recovery on Monday, trading up 4.70% at $275.61 per share during the opening bell. The company’s apparent recovery comes amidst news of Wall Street’s optimism on Tesla stock, despite the noise presently surrounding the company.

In a recent note to clients, Baird analyst Ben Kallo stated that while there is a lot of drama over Tesla today, the company is still worth investing in. The analyst also noted that he was recently given a tour of the Fremont factory, and he came away “incrementally positive” about Tesla. Kallo outlined his observations from the tour in a note published on Monday titled Tesla, Inc.: Buy Even with Drama in LBC.

Kallo took particular notice of the advantages brought about by Gigafactory 1, which he believes will give Tesla a competitive advantage in the market. The analyst also gave TSLA a “Fresh Pick” rating amidst the company’s improving fundamentals, which would likely drive shares higher.

“Gigafactory 1 creates a significant barrier for competition and manufacturing capability should be a competitive advantage for TSLA over the long term. We believe TSLA’s Gigafactory enables the company to drive down costs through an industrialization of battery pack assembly and economies of scale. While negative headlines around management turnover and executive leadership could be an overhang, we are labeling TSLA a ‘Fresh Pick’ as we believe strong fundamentals should drive shares higher,” Kallo wrote.

The Baird analyst maintained a “Buy” rating and a $411 price target for Tesla, which corresponds to a 56.1% upside from Friday’s close at $263.24 per share. Kallo also noted that he is convinced that Tesla’s results for the second half of 2018 would likely beat expectations.

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Adam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of The Kobeissi Letter, also adopted a somewhat bullish outlook on Tesla stock. Kobeissi noted that he is considering selling put options on shares in the wake of former Tesla Chief Accounting Officer David H. Morton’s departure from the company and Elon Musk’s behavior. In his newsletter, Kobeissi noted that the decline in Tesla stock’s price appears to be a “mispricing.”

“The reason I am doing so is because these recent events have had little impact on TSLA’s fundamentals but led to a $100 decline in the stock, which appears to be mispricing,” he wrote.

Tesla is currently aiming to produce a record number of Model 3 this third quarter, with the company targeting a production of 50,000-55,000 units of the electric car. While these targets are ambitious, a blog post written by CEO Elon Musk and posted on Tesla’s official website last Friday noted that the company is poised to have the “most amazing quarter” in its history, and it is about to build and deliver “more than twice as many cars” as it did last quarter.

As of writing, Tesla shares are up 4.47% at $275.00 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms

However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon. Musk replied, basically confirming it.

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elon musk side profile
Joel Kowsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk confirmed through a post on X that a SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is on the way after hinting at it several times earlier this year.

It also comes one day after Bloomberg reported that SpaceX was aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion, adding that it wanted to raise $30 billion.

Musk has been transparent for most of the year that he wanted to try to figure out a way to get Tesla shareholders to invest in SpaceX, giving them access to the stock.

He has also recognized the issues of having a public stock, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.

However, it appears Musk is ready for SpaceX to go public, as Ars Technica Senior Space Editor Eric Berger wrote an op-ed that indicated he thought SpaceX would go public soon.

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Musk replied, basically confirming it:

Berger believes the IPO would help support the need for $30 billion or more in capital needed to fund AI integration projects, such as space-based data centers and lunar satellite factories. Musk confirmed recently that SpaceX “will be doing” data centers in orbit.

AI appears to be a “key part” of SpaceX getting to Musk, Berger also wrote. When writing about whether or not Optimus is a viable project and product for the company, he says that none of that matters. Musk thinks it is, and that’s all that matters.

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It seems like Musk has certainly mulled something this big for a very long time, and the idea of taking SpaceX public is not just likely; it is necessary for the company to get to Mars.

The details of when SpaceX will finally hit that public status are not known. Many of the reports that came out over the past few days indicate it would happen in 2026, so sooner rather than later.

But there are a lot of things on Musk’s plate early next year, especially with Cybercab production, the potential launch of Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, and the Roadster unveiling, all planned for Q1.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving statistic impresses Wall Street firm: ‘Very close to unsupervised’

The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving performance and statistics continue to impress everyone, from retail investors to Wall Street firms. However, one analyst believes Tesla’s driving suite is “very close” to achieving unsupervised self-driving.

On Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said that Tesla’s recent launch of Full Self-Driving version 14 increased the number of miles traveled between interventions by a drastic margin, based on data compiled by a Full Self-Driving Community Tracker.

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The data shows there was a significant jump in miles traveled between interventions as Tesla transitioned drivers to v14.1 back in October. The FSD Community Tracker saw a jump from 441 miles to over 9,200 miles, the most significant improvement in four years.

Interestingly, there was a slight dip in the miles traveled between interventions with the release of v14.2. Piper Sandler said investor interest in FSD has increased.

Full Self-Driving has displayed several improvements with v14, including the introduction of Arrival Options that allow specific parking situations to be chosen by the driver prior to arriving at the destination. Owners can choose from Street Parking, Parking Garages, Parking Lots, Chargers, and Driveways.

Additionally, the overall improvements in performance from v13 have been evident through smoother operation, fewer mistakes during routine operation, and a more refined decision-making process.

Early versions of v14 exhibited stuttering and brake stabbing, but Tesla did a great job of confronting the issue and eliminating it altogether with the release of v14.2.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk also recently stated that the current v14.2 FSD suite is also less restrictive with drivers looking at their phones, which has caused some controversy within the community.

Although we tested it and found there were fewer nudges by the driver monitoring system to push eyes back to the road, we still would not recommend it due to laws and regulations.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.1 texting and driving: we tested it

With that being said, FSD is improving significantly with each larger rollout, and Musk believes the final piece of the puzzle will be unveiled with FSD v14.3, which could come later this year or early in 2026.

Piper Sandler reaffirmed its $500 price target on Tesla shares, as well as its ‘Overweight’ rating.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets price target boost, but it’s not all sunshine and rainbows

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.

Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’

Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.

He wrote:

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“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”

Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.

Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.

He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:

“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”

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Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”

Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.

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