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Tesla (TSLA) shows recovery amid analyst’s bullish outlook after Fremont factory tour

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Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) started showing some recovery on Monday, trading up 4.70% at $275.61 per share during the opening bell. The company’s apparent recovery comes amidst news of Wall Street’s optimism on Tesla stock, despite the noise presently surrounding the company.

In a recent note to clients, Baird analyst Ben Kallo stated that while there is a lot of drama over Tesla today, the company is still worth investing in. The analyst also noted that he was recently given a tour of the Fremont factory, and he came away “incrementally positive” about Tesla. Kallo outlined his observations from the tour in a note published on Monday titled Tesla, Inc.: Buy Even with Drama in LBC.

Kallo took particular notice of the advantages brought about by Gigafactory 1, which he believes will give Tesla a competitive advantage in the market. The analyst also gave TSLA a “Fresh Pick” rating amidst the company’s improving fundamentals, which would likely drive shares higher.

“Gigafactory 1 creates a significant barrier for competition and manufacturing capability should be a competitive advantage for TSLA over the long term. We believe TSLA’s Gigafactory enables the company to drive down costs through an industrialization of battery pack assembly and economies of scale. While negative headlines around management turnover and executive leadership could be an overhang, we are labeling TSLA a ‘Fresh Pick’ as we believe strong fundamentals should drive shares higher,” Kallo wrote.

The Baird analyst maintained a “Buy” rating and a $411 price target for Tesla, which corresponds to a 56.1% upside from Friday’s close at $263.24 per share. Kallo also noted that he is convinced that Tesla’s results for the second half of 2018 would likely beat expectations.

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Adam Kobeissi, founder and editor in chief of The Kobeissi Letter, also adopted a somewhat bullish outlook on Tesla stock. Kobeissi noted that he is considering selling put options on shares in the wake of former Tesla Chief Accounting Officer David H. Morton’s departure from the company and Elon Musk’s behavior. In his newsletter, Kobeissi noted that the decline in Tesla stock’s price appears to be a “mispricing.”

“The reason I am doing so is because these recent events have had little impact on TSLA’s fundamentals but led to a $100 decline in the stock, which appears to be mispricing,” he wrote.

Tesla is currently aiming to produce a record number of Model 3 this third quarter, with the company targeting a production of 50,000-55,000 units of the electric car. While these targets are ambitious, a blog post written by CEO Elon Musk and posted on Tesla’s official website last Friday noted that the company is poised to have the “most amazing quarter” in its history, and it is about to build and deliver “more than twice as many cars” as it did last quarter.

As of writing, Tesla shares are up 4.47% at $275.00 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Wall Street firm makes shock move for Tesla Q3 delivery prediction

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

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(Credit: Tesla)

A Wall Street firm is making a shocking move ahead of Tesla’s Q3 delivery report, increasing its forecast for the quarter.

Tesla is set to report its deliveries for the third quarter sometime next week at the beginning of October. There has been quite a bit of speculation about Tesla’s performance in terms of deliveries for the quarter, as many firms and investors are curious about how strong it could be.

There have been a few things working in Tesla’s favor, including the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which stimulated demand as consumers wanted to take advantage of the discount before it was no longer available.

Tesla also has launched an attractive revamp to the Model Y this year, which was the best-selling car in the world for the past two years. These two points have helped Tesla with demand specifically this year, but this quarter has been especially strong because of the tax credit phase-out.

With that being said, one Wall Street firm chose to push its delivery prediction for the third quarter up about ten percent.

Tesla makes a big change to reflect new IRS EV tax credit rules

UBS analysts said they adjusted their delivery targets for Tesla from 431,000 to 475,000, stating it was “more in line with buyside expectations in the 470-475k range.”

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The firm continued:

“[The company should have] strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.” 

If it manages to reach what UBS thinks it will, deliveries would be the highest for Tesla since late 2024, and the firm believes it could “potentially [be] the highest ever” for the company in a single quarter.

Tesla delivered over 495,000 cars in Q4 2024, so it would truly need an anomaly to capture that crown in Q3.

For the full year, UBS believes Tesla will deliver 1.62 million cars in 2025.

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Mizuho raises Tesla (TSLA) price target on stronger 2026 outlook

Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Mizuho Securities has lifted its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $450 from $375, citing a more optimistic view of the electric vehicle market in 2026. 

The firm stated that potential tariff headwinds appear less severe than earlier expected, while EV production volumes are trending higher across major automakers. Mizuho also retained Tesla’s “Outperform” rating despite short-term industry challenges.

Mizuho’s take

Mizuho analysts now forecast Tesla will deliver about 1.91 million vehicles in 2026, slightly down from their previous estimate of 1.95 million but still above Wall Street consensus. The firm pointed to Tesla’s planned lower-cost “Model 2” and potential Robotaxi launches as key drivers for growth over the next two years.

“We see TSLA maintaining key leadership in the U.S. BEV market despite some near-term challenges,” Vijay Rakesh, managing director at Mizuho, wrote in a research note. 

The note also highlighted Elon Musk’s recently approved compensation package and his $1 billion stock purchase, which Mizuho believes could align incentives with Tesla’s long-term projects, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report. These include advancing autonomous driving technology and pushing development of humanoid robots, both of which remain central to Musk’s vision of the company’s future.

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Mizuho is not the only firm that has cited Tesla’s long-term projects and the company’s leadership position in the AI and auto sector. In a recent note, Piper Sandler highlighted that despite the growing number of legitimate competitors for Tesla in places like China, the company still has a foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.

Piper Sandler also noted that competitors still look to Tesla for advancements in real-world AI applications. “Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,,” the firm noted.

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Piper Sandler raises Tesla (TSLA) target after China trip, cites robotics leadership

Analysts concluded that Tesla is still the benchmark that competitors rely on for innovation.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Piper Sandler boosted its Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $500 from $400, maintaining an “Overweight” rating after a research trip to China. 

The firm cited Tesla’s leadership in artificial intelligence and robotics as central to its thesis, even as Chinese electric vehicle makers grow more competitive. Analysts concluded that Tesla is still the benchmark that competitors rely on for innovation.

A China visit

During its visit, Piper Sandler met with several Chinese EV manufacturers, many of which are vertically integrated and expanding rapidly. Analysts noted that these “fast followers” represent Tesla’s most significant competitive challenge. However, executives from multiple companies acknowledged Tesla’s foundational role in shaping the industry’s direction, TipRanks stated in a report.

One automaker told Piper Sandler that “without Tesla going from 0 to 1, we can’t go from 1 to 100,” highlighting the Elon Musk-led company’s enduring influence. Analysts said the remarks reflect both admiration and dependence on Tesla’s early innovations, particularly in areas such as battery integration, vehicle software, and AI-powered features.

Tesla’s leadership

Piper Sandler’s report emphasized that while Chinese automakers are formidable in design and production, they look to Tesla for advancements in “real-world” AI applications. Tesla’s focus on autonomous driving and robotics continues to distinguish it from competitors, making the company Piper Sandler’s top investment idea in this space.

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“Building AI-enabled machines requires data, talent, chips, and engineering prowess. Tesla compares favorably vs. the Chinese on all of these fronts,” Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter stated in a note. 

Piper Sandler also shared some of its expectations for Tesla this year, stating that it is estimating that the company will delivery ~495k vehicles this third-quarter, possibly attaining a new all-time record. The firm, however, stated that its 2026 outlook for Tesla is shakier, as the EV maker could just hit ~1.9 million units, which could include as many as 350k affordable “Model 2” vehicles.

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