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Tesla bull shares insights on why regulatory credits don’t matter for TSLA’s profitability

(Credit: Gabeincal)

Published

5 years ago

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New Street Research managing partner Pierre Ferragu recently explained why Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) EV credits is only icing on the cake for the electric car maker. Tesla reported a revenue of $8.771 billion with a net income of $331 million in Q3, with regulatory credits accounting for $397 million of the EV maker’s earnings.

When asked about how regulatory credits have boosted Tesla’s numbers this year, Ferragu told Fox Business that the EV credits aren’t a big part of the electric car maker’s future valuation at all. This is partly due to regulatory credits being short-term, and Tesla’s vehicle margins.

“Why are you looking at profits of this year? You know Tesla is trading on maybe, like over 100x that, more than 100x that, so that’s not reason to drive our valuation of TSLA. What really matters is how much profit Tesla makes in 2025, in 2030. We’ve had a string of conversations about that,” said Ferragu.

He explained his stance further, saying: “So, to give you a sense of that, in 2025, I have Tesla making $16 of earnings per share just out of the auto business. And in that, there’s absolutely no credit revenues. We don’t have credit revenues in our model. Credit revenues are very short-term, have a very short duration, so you arrive at about $1.5 billion in pure profit this year. So that’s like free money Tesla gets and Tesla will be able to reinvest in their business.” 

A big portion of Tesla’s EV credits come from its Fiat pooling deal which was estimated to be worth $1.8 billion through 2023 by Baird analyst Ben Kallo. Recently, Honda joined Tesla’s pooling deal with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), probably increasing TSLA’s profitability with EV credits. 

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Many TSLA bulls, specifically retail investors who have accumulated a good number of shares over the years, agree with Ferragu’s assessment of Tesla’s use of EV credits. As TSLA Bull @stevenmarkryan explained, EV credits are more of a byproduct of Tesla doing what it is already doing. During his interview with Fox Business, Ferragu strived to explain Tesla’s profitability without EV credits on the table. 

“But that money is going away relatively rapidly in the next three or four years. And that’s not part of the overall picture. What really matters today is to look at the gross margins of Tesla excluding the regulatory credits. And excluding credits, Tesla’s gross margins is about 20%, it’s a leading gross margin for a car manufacturer. And it continues to expand as the Model Y is a higher margin, the Model Y is included in the mix. That’s what really matters, and credits have nothing to blame there,” Ferragu said.  

Tesla, VW lead the charge for EV dominance as EU sets plan to end combustion engines in 2025

Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target for TSLA to $540. “Mine is a tad above that. It’s $578. They’re getting closer to the truth,” Ferragu commented during his interview.

In October, Ferragu released a New Street Research analysis on Tesla and set his $578 TSLA price target for the company. The analysis hinted at a decade of hyper-growth for Tesla. In it, Ferragu and his fellow analysts estimated that Tesla had an addressable market of 20 million units. The S3XY lineup directly addressed 8 million units with an additional “trading up” opportunity of 12 million units. The Cybertruck added an extra 3 million units to the equation. 

Recently, Tesla joined the Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) along with 28 other companies, like Rivian, Duke Energy, Seimens, and Lucid Motors. ZETA wants to reach 100% EV adoption by 2030 in the United States. In Europe, the EU Commission plans to enforce stricter emission standards that could kill the combustion engine by 2025. Other countries seem be preparing for an EV-lead auto industry as well, which could bring about Tesla’s hyper-growth in the next decade.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Tesla Supercharger Diner food menu gets a sneak peek as construction closes out

What are you ordering at the Tesla Diner?

Published

10 hours ago

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July 18, 2025

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Credit: BradGoldbergMD | X

The Tesla Supercharger Diner in Los Angeles is nearing completion as construction appears to be winding down significantly. However, the more minor details, such as what the company will serve at its 50s-style diner for food, are starting to be revealed.

Tesla’s Supercharger Diner is set to open soon, seven years after CEO Elon Musk first drafted the idea in a post on X in 2018. Musk has largely come through on most of what he envisioned for the project: the diner, the massive movie screens, and the intended vibe are all present, thanks to the aerial and ground footage shared on social media.

We already know the Diner will be open 24/7, based on decals placed on the front door of the restaurant that were shared earlier this week. We assume that Tesla Optimus will come into play for these long and uninterrupted hours.

The Tesla Diner is basically finished—here’s what it looks like

As far as the food, Tesla does have an email also printed on the front door of the Diner, but we did not receive any response back (yet) about what cuisine it will be offering. We figured it would be nothing fancy and it would be typical diner staples: burgers, fries, wings, milkshakes, etc.

According to pictures taken by @Tesla_lighting_, which were shared by Not a Tesla App, the food will be just that: quick and affordable meals that diners do well. It’s nothing crazy, just typical staples you’d find at any diner, just with a Tesla twist:

As the food menu is finalized, we will be sure to share any details Tesla provides, including a full list of what will be served and its prices.

Additionally, the entire property appears to be nearing its final construction stages, and it seems it may even be nearing completion. The movie screens are already up and showing videos of things like SpaceX launches.

There are many cars already using the Superchargers at the restaurant, and employees inside the facility look to be putting the finishing touches on the interior.

It’s almost reminiscent of a Tesla version of a Buc-ee’s, a southern staple convenience store that offers much more than a traditional gas station. Of course, Tesla’s version is futuristic and more catered to the company’s image, but the idea is the same.

It’s a one-stop shop for anything you’d need to recharge as a Tesla owner. Los Angeles building permits have not yet revealed the date for the restaurant’s initial operation, but Tesla may have its eye on a target date that will likely be announced during next week’s Earnings Call.

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News

Tesla’s longer Model Y did not scale back requests for this vehicle type from fans

Tesla fans are happy with the new Model Y, but they’re still vocal about the need for something else.

Published

1 day ago

on

July 17, 2025

By

Credit: AlwinArt/Twitter

Tesla launched a slightly longer version of the Model Y all-electric crossover in China, and with it being extremely likely that the vehicle will make its way to other markets, including the United States, fans are still looking for something more.

The new Model Y L in China boasts a slightly larger wheelbase than its original version, giving slightly more interior room with a sixth seat, thanks to a third row.

Tesla exec hints at useful and potentially killer Model Y L feature

Tesla has said throughout the past year that it would focus on developing its affordable, compact models, which were set to begin production in the first half of the year. The company has not indicated whether it met that timeline or not, but many are hoping to see unveilings of those designs potentially during the Q3 earnings call.

However, the modifications to the Model Y, which have not yet been officially announced for any markets outside of China, still don’t seem to be what owners and fans are looking forward to. Instead, they are hoping for something larger.

A few months ago, I reported on the overall consensus within the Tesla community that the company needs a full-size SUV, minivan, or even a cargo van that would be ideal for camping or business use.

Tesla is missing one type of vehicle in its lineup and fans want it fast

That mentality still seems very present amongst fans and owners, who state that a full-size SUV with enough seating for a larger family, more capability in terms of cargo space for camping or business operation, and something to compete with gas cars like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or electric ones like the Volkswagen ID.BUZZ.

We asked the question on X, and Tesla fans were nearly unanimously in support of a larger SUV or minivan-type vehicle for the company’s lineup:

Here’s what some of the respondents said:

Tesla is certainly aware that many of its owners would like the company to develop something larger that competes with the large SUVs on the market.

However, it has not stated that anything like that is in the current plans for future vehicles, as it has made a concerted effort to develop Robotaxi alongside the affordable, compact models that it claims are in development.

It has already unveiled the Robovan, a people-mover that can seat up to 20 passengers in a lounge-like interior.

The Robovan will be completely driverless, so it’s unlikely we will see it before the release of a fully autonomous Full Self-Driving suite from Tesla.

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Energy

Tesla launches first Virtual Power Plant in UK – get paid to use solar

Tesla has launched its first-ever Virtual Power Plant program in the United Kingdom.

Published

1 day ago

on

July 17, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla Energy | X

Tesla has launched its first-ever Virtual Power Plant program in the United Kingdom. This feature enables users of solar panels and energy storage systems to sell their excess energy back to the grid.

Tesla is utilizing Octopus Energy, a British renewable energy company that operates in multiple markets, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States, as the provider for the VPP launch in the region.

The company states that those who enroll in the program can earn up to £300 per month.

Tesla has operated several VPP programs worldwide, most notably in California, Texas, Connecticut, and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico. This is not the first time Tesla has operated a VPP outside the United States, as there are programs in Australia, Japan, and New Zealand.

This is its first in the UK:

Tesla is not the only company that is working with Octopus Energy in the UK for the VPP, as it joins SolarEdge, GivEnergy, and Enphase as other companies that utilize the Octopus platform for their project operations.

It has been six years since Tesla launched its first VPP, as it started its first in Australia back in 2019. In 2024, Tesla paid out over $10 million to those participating in the program.

Tesla VPP program in California hits new capacity milestone

Participating in the VPP program that Tesla offers not only provides enrolled individuals with the opportunity to earn money, but it also contributes to grid stabilization by supporting local energy grids.

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