New Street Research managing partner Pierre Ferragu recently explained why Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) EV credits is only icing on the cake for the electric car maker. Tesla reported a revenue of $8.771 billion with a net income of $331 million in Q3, with regulatory credits accounting for $397 million of the EV maker’s earnings.
When asked about how regulatory credits have boosted Tesla’s numbers this year, Ferragu told Fox Business that the EV credits aren’t a big part of the electric car maker’s future valuation at all. This is partly due to regulatory credits being short-term, and Tesla’s vehicle margins.
“Why are you looking at profits of this year? You know Tesla is trading on maybe, like over 100x that, more than 100x that, so that’s not reason to drive our valuation of TSLA. What really matters is how much profit Tesla makes in 2025, in 2030. We’ve had a string of conversations about that,” said Ferragu.
He explained his stance further, saying: “So, to give you a sense of that, in 2025, I have Tesla making $16 of earnings per share just out of the auto business. And in that, there’s absolutely no credit revenues. We don’t have credit revenues in our model. Credit revenues are very short-term, have a very short duration, so you arrive at about $1.5 billion in pure profit this year. So that’s like free money Tesla gets and Tesla will be able to reinvest in their business.”
A big portion of Tesla’s EV credits come from its Fiat pooling deal which was estimated to be worth $1.8 billion through 2023 by Baird analyst Ben Kallo. Recently, Honda joined Tesla’s pooling deal with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), probably increasing TSLA’s profitability with EV credits.
Many TSLA bulls, specifically retail investors who have accumulated a good number of shares over the years, agree with Ferragu’s assessment of Tesla’s use of EV credits. As TSLA Bull @stevenmarkryan explained, EV credits are more of a byproduct of Tesla doing what it is already doing. During his interview with Fox Business, Ferragu strived to explain Tesla’s profitability without EV credits on the table.
“But that money is going away relatively rapidly in the next three or four years. And that’s not part of the overall picture. What really matters today is to look at the gross margins of Tesla excluding the regulatory credits. And excluding credits, Tesla’s gross margins is about 20%, it’s a leading gross margin for a car manufacturer. And it continues to expand as the Model Y is a higher margin, the Model Y is included in the mix. That’s what really matters, and credits have nothing to blame there,” Ferragu said.
Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target for TSLA to $540. “Mine is a tad above that. It’s $578. They’re getting closer to the truth,” Ferragu commented during his interview.
In October, Ferragu released a New Street Research analysis on Tesla and set his $578 TSLA price target for the company. The analysis hinted at a decade of hyper-growth for Tesla. In it, Ferragu and his fellow analysts estimated that Tesla had an addressable market of 20 million units. The S3XY lineup directly addressed 8 million units with an additional “trading up” opportunity of 12 million units. The Cybertruck added an extra 3 million units to the equation.
Recently, Tesla joined the Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) along with 28 other companies, like Rivian, Duke Energy, Seimens, and Lucid Motors. ZETA wants to reach 100% EV adoption by 2030 in the United States. In Europe, the EU Commission plans to enforce stricter emission standards that could kill the combustion engine by 2025. Other countries seem be preparing for an EV-lead auto industry as well, which could bring about Tesla’s hyper-growth in the next decade.
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Tesla Supercharger left offline as Swedish court backs union strike
The completed Supercharger has been stalled for nearly two years amid Tesla’s conflict with the IF Metall union in Sweden.
Tesla’s Supercharger station in Ljungby, Sweden will remain without power after a Swedish administrative court rejected the company’s appeal to force a grid connection to the site. The completed Supercharger has been stalled for nearly two years amid Tesla’s conflict with the IF Metall union in Sweden.
The court ruled that the ongoing union strike against Tesla Sweden is valid grounds for the Supercharger’s connection delay, as noted in an Allt Om Elbil report.
The Ljungby Supercharger was one of the first charging stations that were denied grid access after IF Metall launched its strike against Tesla Sweden in late 2023. Electricians at local grid operator Ljungby Energinät were pulled into a sympathy strike by the Seko union, preventing the site’s connection.
Tesla reported both Ljungby Energinät and Gävle Energi Elnät AB to the Swedish Energy Market Inspectorate, arguing that grid operators failed to meet their legal obligation to provide connection to the location within a reasonable time frame.
The regulator ruled that the strike represented a valid exception under Swedish law, however, citing constitutional protections for industrial actions.
Tesla responded by appealing to the Administrative Court in Linköping, claiming it had the right to connection within a reasonable period, generally no more than two years. Tesla Sweden also argued that the country’s Electricity Act conflicts with EU law. The court rejected those arguments.
“The Administrative Court today finds that granting the company’s request in practice applies to the same thing as the blockade and that it would mean that the blockade would be ineffective.
“Such a decision would contradict the principle that labor market conflicts should be resolved to the greatest extent possible by the labor market parties, not by the state. The industrial action is also constitutionally protected,” Chief Councilor Ronny Idstrand stated.
The court also concluded that the Electricity Act does not conflict with EU regulations and that special reasons justified the extended delay.
While the ruling was unanimous, Tesla Sweden may appeal the decision to a higher administrative court.
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Tesla China exports 50,644 vehicles in January, up sharply YoY
The figure also places Tesla China second among new energy vehicle exporters for the month, behind BYD.
Tesla China exported 50,644 vehicles in January, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
This marks a notable increase both year-on-year and month-on-month for the American EV maker’s Giga Shanghai-built Model 3 and Model Y. The figure also places Tesla China second among new energy vehicle exporters for the month, behind BYD.
The CPCA’s national passenger car market analysis report indicated that total New Energy Vehicle exports reached 286,000 units in January, up 103.6% from a year earlier. Battery electric vehicles accounted for 65% of those exports.
Within that total, Tesla China shipped 50,644 vehicles overseas. By comparison, exports of Giga Shanghai-built Model 3 and Model Y units totaled 29,535 units in January last year and just 3,328 units in December.
This suggests that Tesla China’s January 2026 exports were roughly 1.7 times higher than the same month a year ago and more than 15 times higher than December’s level, as noted in a TechWeb report.
BYD still led the January 2026 export rankings with 96,859 new energy passenger vehicles shipped overseas, though it should be noted that the automaker operates at least nine major production facilities in China, far outnumering Tesla. Overall, BYD’s factories in China have a domestic production capacity for up to 5.82 million units annually as of 2024.
Tesla China followed in second place, ahead of Geely, Chery, Leapmotor, SAIC Motor, and SAIC-GM-Wuling, each of which exported significant volumes during the month. Overall, new energy vehicles accounted for nearly half of China’s total passenger vehicle exports in January, hinting at strong overseas demand for electric cars produced in the country.
China remains one of Tesla China’s most important markets. Despite mostly competing with just two vehicles, both of which are premium priced, Tesla China is still proving quite competitive in the domestic electric vehicle market.
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Tesla adds a new feature to Navigation in preparation for a new vehicle
After CEO Elon Musk announced earlier this week that the Semi’s mass production processes were scheduled for later this year, the company has been making various preparations as it nears manufacturing.
Tesla has added a new feature to its Navigation and Supercharger Map in preparation for a new vehicle to hit the road: the Semi.
After CEO Elon Musk announced earlier this week that the Semi’s mass production processes were scheduled for later this year, the company has been making various preparations as it nears manufacturing.
Elon Musk confirms Tesla Semi will enter high-volume production this year
One of those changes has been the newly-released information regarding trim levels, as well as reports that Tesla has started to reach out to customers regarding pricing information for those trims.
Now, Tesla has made an additional bit of information available to the public in the form of locations of Megachargers, the infrastructure that will be responsible for charging the Semi and other all-electric Class 8 vehicles that hit the road.
Tesla made the announcement on the social media platform X:
We put Semi Megachargers on the map
→ https://t.co/Jb6p7OPXMi pic.twitter.com/stwYwtDVSB
— Tesla Semi (@tesla_semi) February 10, 2026
Although it is a minor development, it is a major indication that Tesla is preparing for the Semi to head toward mass production, something the company has been hinting at for several years.
Nevertheless, this, along with the other information that was released this week, points toward a significant stride in Tesla’s progress in the Semi project.
Now that the company has also worked toward completion of the dedicated manufacturing plant in Sparks, Nevada, there are more signs than ever that the vehicle is finally ready to be built and delivered to customers outside of the pilot program that has been in operation for several years.
For now, the Megachargers are going to be situated on the West Coast, with a heavy emphasis on routes like I-5 and I-10. This strategy prioritizes major highways and logistics hubs where freight traffic is heaviest, ensuring coverage for both cross-country and regional hauls.
California and Texas are slated to have the most initially, with 17 and 19 sites, respectively. As the program continues to grow, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Washington, New York, and Nevada will have Megacharger locations as well.
For now, the Megachargers are available in Lathrop, California, and Sparks, Nevada, both of which have ties to Tesla. The former is the location of the Megafactory, and Sparks is where both the Tesla Gigafactory and Semifactory are located.
Tesla Supercharger left offline as Swedish court backs union strike
Tesla China exports 50,644 vehicles in January, up sharply YoY
