New Street Research managing partner Pierre Ferragu recently explained why Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) EV credits is only icing on the cake for the electric car maker. Tesla reported a revenue of $8.771 billion with a net income of $331 million in Q3, with regulatory credits accounting for $397 million of the EV maker’s earnings.
When asked about how regulatory credits have boosted Tesla’s numbers this year, Ferragu told Fox Business that the EV credits aren’t a big part of the electric car maker’s future valuation at all. This is partly due to regulatory credits being short-term, and Tesla’s vehicle margins.
“Why are you looking at profits of this year? You know Tesla is trading on maybe, like over 100x that, more than 100x that, so that’s not reason to drive our valuation of TSLA. What really matters is how much profit Tesla makes in 2025, in 2030. We’ve had a string of conversations about that,” said Ferragu.
He explained his stance further, saying: “So, to give you a sense of that, in 2025, I have Tesla making $16 of earnings per share just out of the auto business. And in that, there’s absolutely no credit revenues. We don’t have credit revenues in our model. Credit revenues are very short-term, have a very short duration, so you arrive at about $1.5 billion in pure profit this year. So that’s like free money Tesla gets and Tesla will be able to reinvest in their business.”
A big portion of Tesla’s EV credits come from its Fiat pooling deal which was estimated to be worth $1.8 billion through 2023 by Baird analyst Ben Kallo. Recently, Honda joined Tesla’s pooling deal with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), probably increasing TSLA’s profitability with EV credits.
Many TSLA bulls, specifically retail investors who have accumulated a good number of shares over the years, agree with Ferragu’s assessment of Tesla’s use of EV credits. As TSLA Bull @stevenmarkryan explained, EV credits are more of a byproduct of Tesla doing what it is already doing. During his interview with Fox Business, Ferragu strived to explain Tesla’s profitability without EV credits on the table.
“But that money is going away relatively rapidly in the next three or four years. And that’s not part of the overall picture. What really matters today is to look at the gross margins of Tesla excluding the regulatory credits. And excluding credits, Tesla’s gross margins is about 20%, it’s a leading gross margin for a car manufacturer. And it continues to expand as the Model Y is a higher margin, the Model Y is included in the mix. That’s what really matters, and credits have nothing to blame there,” Ferragu said.
Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target for TSLA to $540. “Mine is a tad above that. It’s $578. They’re getting closer to the truth,” Ferragu commented during his interview.
In October, Ferragu released a New Street Research analysis on Tesla and set his $578 TSLA price target for the company. The analysis hinted at a decade of hyper-growth for Tesla. In it, Ferragu and his fellow analysts estimated that Tesla had an addressable market of 20 million units. The S3XY lineup directly addressed 8 million units with an additional “trading up” opportunity of 12 million units. The Cybertruck added an extra 3 million units to the equation.
Recently, Tesla joined the Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) along with 28 other companies, like Rivian, Duke Energy, Seimens, and Lucid Motors. ZETA wants to reach 100% EV adoption by 2030 in the United States. In Europe, the EU Commission plans to enforce stricter emission standards that could kill the combustion engine by 2025. Other countries seem be preparing for an EV-lead auto industry as well, which could bring about Tesla’s hyper-growth in the next decade.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reveals when SpaceX will perform first-ever Starship catch
“Starship catch is probably flight 13 to 15, depending on how well V3 flights go,” Musk said.

Elon Musk revealed when SpaceX would perform the first-ever catch attempt of Starship, its massive rocket that will one day take life to other planets.
On Tuesday, Starship aced its tenth test flight as SpaceX was able to complete each of its mission objectives, including a splashdown of the Super Heavy Booster in the Gulf, the deployment of eight Starlink simulators, and another splashdown of the ship in the Indian Ocean.
It was the first launch that featured a payload deployment:
SpaceX Starship Flight 10 was so successful, it’s breaking the anti-Musk narrative
SpaceX was transparent that it would not attempt to catch the Super Heavy Booster, something it has done on three previous occasions: Flight 5 on October 13, 2024, Flight 7 on January 16, and Flight 8 on March 6.
This time, it was not attempting to do so. However, there are bigger plans for the future, and Musk detailed them in a recent post on X, where he discussed SpaceX’s plans to catch Starship, which would be a monumental accomplishment.
Musk said the most likely opportunities for SpaceX to catch Starship itself would be Flight 13, Flight 14, and Flight 15, but it depends on “how well the V3 flights go.”
The Starship launched with Flight 10 was a V2, which is the same size as the subsequent V3 rocket but has a smaller payload-to-orbit rating and is less powerful in terms of initial thrust and booster thrust. Musk said there is only one more V2 rocket left to launch.
Starship catch is probably flight 13 to 15, depending on how well V3 flights go
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 27, 2025
V3 will be the version flown through 2026, as V4, which will be the most capable Starship build SpaceX manufactures, is likely to be the first company ship to carry humans to space.
Musk said that SpaceX planned to “hopefully” attempt a catch of Starship in 2025. However, it appears that this will likely be pushed back to 2026 due to timing.
SpaceX will take Starship catch one step further very soon, Elon Musk confirms
SpaceX would need to launch the 11th and 12th test flights by the end of the year in order to get to Musk’s expected first catch attempt of Flight 13. It’s not unheard of, but the company will need to accelerate its launch rate as it has only had three test flights this year.
News
Tesla Robotaxi rival Waymo confirms massive fleet expansion in Bay Area
New data from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) said Waymo had 1,429 vehicles operating in California, and 875 of them were “associated with a terminal in San Francisco,” according to The SF Examiner.

Tesla Robotaxi rival Waymo has confirmed that it has expanded its fleet of driverless ride-sharing vehicles in the Bay Area of California massively since its last public disclosure.
It is perhaps one of the most important metrics in the race for autonomous supremacy, along with overall service area. Tesla has seemed to focus on the latter, while expanding its fleet slowly to maintain safety.
Waymo, on the other hand, is bringing its fleet size across the country to significant levels. In March, it told The SF Examiner that there were over 300 Waymos in service in the San Francisco area, which was not a significant increase from the 250 vehicles on the road it reported in August 2023.
In May, the company said in a press release that it had more than 1,500 self-driving Waymos operating nationwide. More than 600 were in the San Francisco area.
Tesla analyst compares Robotaxi to Waymo: ‘The contrast was clear’
However, new data from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) said Waymo had 1,429 vehicles operating in California, and 875 of them were “associated with a terminal in San Francisco,” according to The SF Examiner.
CPUC data from March 2025 indicated that there were a total of 1,087 Waymo vehicles in California, with 762 located in San Francisco. Some were test vehicles, others were deployed to operate as ride-sharing vehicles.
The company’s August update also said that it deploys more than 2,000 commercial vehicles in the United States. That number was 1,500 in May. There are also roughly 400 in Phoenix and 500 in Los Angeles.
While Waymo has done a good job of expanding its fleet, it has also been able to expand its footprint in the various cities it is operating in.
Most recently, it grew its geofence in Austin, Texas, to 90 square miles. This outpaced Tesla for a short period before the company expanded its Robotaxi service area earlier this week to roughly 170 square miles.
Tesla one-ups Waymo once again with latest Robotaxi expansion in Austin
The two companies have drastically different approaches to self-driving, as Waymo utilizes LiDAR, while Tesla relies solely on cameras for its suite. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made no mistake about which he believes to be the superior solution to autonomy.
News
Tesla launches Full Self-Driving in a new region
Today, Tesla launched Full Self-Driving in Australia for purchase by car buyers for $10,100, according to Aussie automotive blog Man of Many, which tried out the suite earlier this week.

Tesla has launched its Full Self-Driving suite in a new region, marking a significant step in the company’s progress to expand its driver assistance suite on a global scale.
It is also the first time Tesla has launched FSD in a right-hand-drive market.
Today, Tesla launched Full Self-Driving in Australia for purchase by car buyers for $10,100, according to Aussie automotive blog Man of Many, which tried out the suite earlier this week.
Previously, Basic and Enhanced Autopilot suites were available, but the FSD capability now adds Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control, along with all the features of the previous two Autopilot suites.
🚨 Tesla has officially launched Full Self-Driving in Australia for the price of $10,100 outright.
The move marks a significant step in Tesla’s progress to expand the suite on a global scale pic.twitter.com/zzHa8Ngqls
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 28, 2025
It is the first time Tesla has launched the suite by name in a region outside of North America. In China, Tesla has “City Autopilot,” as it was not permitted to use the Full Self-Driving label for regulatory reasons.
However, Tesla still lists Full Self-Driving (Supervised) as available in the U.S., Canada, China, Mexico, and Puerto Rico.
The company teased the launch of the suite in Australia earlier this week, and it appeared to have been released to select media members in the region earlier this week:
Tesla FSD upcoming Australia release seemingly teased bv media
The rollout of Full Self-Driving in the Australian market will occur in stages, as Model 3 and Model Y vehicles with Hardware 4 will receive the first batch of FSD rollouts in the region.
TechAU also reported that “the initial deployment of FSDs in Australia will roll out to a select number of people outside the company, these people are being invited into Tesla’s Early Access Program.”
Additionally, the company reportedly said it is “very close” to unlocking FSD in customer cars:
BREAKING: Tesla has officially announced that FSD (Supervised) is launching in Australia, marking a huge milestone for the company.
The rollout will happen in stages. HW4 Model 3s and Model Ys will get it first. Tesla says it is “very close” to being unlocked in customer cars.… pic.twitter.com/r1dYnFRa6o
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) August 28, 2025
Each new Tesla sold will also come with a 30-day free trial of the suite.
Australia is the sixth country to officially have Full Self-Driving available to them, following the United States, Canada, China, Mexico, and Puerto Rico.
Here’s the first look at the suite operating in Australia:
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