New Street Research managing partner Pierre Ferragu recently explained why Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) EV credits is only icing on the cake for the electric car maker. Tesla reported a revenue of $8.771 billion with a net income of $331 million in Q3, with regulatory credits accounting for $397 million of the EV maker’s earnings.
When asked about how regulatory credits have boosted Tesla’s numbers this year, Ferragu told Fox Business that the EV credits aren’t a big part of the electric car maker’s future valuation at all. This is partly due to regulatory credits being short-term, and Tesla’s vehicle margins.
“Why are you looking at profits of this year? You know Tesla is trading on maybe, like over 100x that, more than 100x that, so that’s not reason to drive our valuation of TSLA. What really matters is how much profit Tesla makes in 2025, in 2030. We’ve had a string of conversations about that,” said Ferragu.
He explained his stance further, saying: “So, to give you a sense of that, in 2025, I have Tesla making $16 of earnings per share just out of the auto business. And in that, there’s absolutely no credit revenues. We don’t have credit revenues in our model. Credit revenues are very short-term, have a very short duration, so you arrive at about $1.5 billion in pure profit this year. So that’s like free money Tesla gets and Tesla will be able to reinvest in their business.”
A big portion of Tesla’s EV credits come from its Fiat pooling deal which was estimated to be worth $1.8 billion through 2023 by Baird analyst Ben Kallo. Recently, Honda joined Tesla’s pooling deal with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), probably increasing TSLA’s profitability with EV credits.
Many TSLA bulls, specifically retail investors who have accumulated a good number of shares over the years, agree with Ferragu’s assessment of Tesla’s use of EV credits. As TSLA Bull @stevenmarkryan explained, EV credits are more of a byproduct of Tesla doing what it is already doing. During his interview with Fox Business, Ferragu strived to explain Tesla’s profitability without EV credits on the table.
“But that money is going away relatively rapidly in the next three or four years. And that’s not part of the overall picture. What really matters today is to look at the gross margins of Tesla excluding the regulatory credits. And excluding credits, Tesla’s gross margins is about 20%, it’s a leading gross margin for a car manufacturer. And it continues to expand as the Model Y is a higher margin, the Model Y is included in the mix. That’s what really matters, and credits have nothing to blame there,” Ferragu said.
Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target for TSLA to $540. “Mine is a tad above that. It’s $578. They’re getting closer to the truth,” Ferragu commented during his interview.
In October, Ferragu released a New Street Research analysis on Tesla and set his $578 TSLA price target for the company. The analysis hinted at a decade of hyper-growth for Tesla. In it, Ferragu and his fellow analysts estimated that Tesla had an addressable market of 20 million units. The S3XY lineup directly addressed 8 million units with an additional “trading up” opportunity of 12 million units. The Cybertruck added an extra 3 million units to the equation.
Recently, Tesla joined the Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) along with 28 other companies, like Rivian, Duke Energy, Seimens, and Lucid Motors. ZETA wants to reach 100% EV adoption by 2030 in the United States. In Europe, the EU Commission plans to enforce stricter emission standards that could kill the combustion engine by 2025. Other countries seem be preparing for an EV-lead auto industry as well, which could bring about Tesla’s hyper-growth in the next decade.
Elon Musk
Tesla Korea hiring AI Chip Engineers amid push for high-volume AI chips
Tesla Korea stated that it is seeking “talented individuals to join in developing the world’s highest-level mass-produced AI chips.”
In a recent post on X, Tesla Korea announced that it is hiring AI Chip Design Engineers as part of a project aimed at developing what the company describes as the world’s highest-volume AI chips. CEO Elon Musk later amplified the initiative.
Tesla Korea stated that it is seeking “talented individuals to join in developing the world’s highest-level mass-produced AI chips.”
“This project aims to develop AI chip architecture that will achieve the highest production volume in the world in the future,” Tesla Korea wrote in its post on X.
As per Tesla Korea, those who wish to apply for the AI Chip Design Engineer post should email Ai_Chips@Tesla.com and include “the three most challenging technical problems you have solved.”
Elon Musk echoed the hiring push in a separate post. “If you’re in Korea and want to work on chip design, fabrication or AI software, join Tesla!” he wrote.
The recruitment effort in South Korea comes as Tesla accelerates development of its in-house AI chips, which power its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, Optimus humanoid robot, and data center training infrastructure.
Tesla has been steadily expanding its silicon development teams globally. In recent months, the company has posted roles in Austin and Palo Alto for silicon module process engineers across lithography, etching, and other chip fabrication disciplines, as noted in a Benzinga report.
Tesla Korea’s hiring efforts align with the company’s long-term goal of designing and producing AI chips at massive scale. Musk has previously stated that Tesla’s future AI chips could become the highest-volume AI processors in the world.
The move also comes amid Tesla’s broader expansion into AI initiatives. The company recently committed about $2 billion into xAI as part of a Series E funding round, reinforcing its focus on artificial intelligence across vehicles, robotics, and compute infrastructure.
Elon Musk
SpaceX and xAI tapped by Pentagon for autonomous drone contest
The six-month competition was launched in January and is said to carry a $100 million award.
SpaceX and its AI subsidiary xAI are reportedly competing in a new Pentagon prize challenge focused on autonomous drone swarming technology, as per a report from Bloomberg News.
The six-month competition was launched in January and is said to carry a $100 million award.
Bloomberg reported that SpaceX and xAI are among a select group invited to participate in the Defense Department’s effort to develop advanced drone swarming capabilities. The goal is reportedly to create systems that can translate voice commands into digital instructions and manage fleets of autonomous drones.
Neither SpaceX, xAI, nor the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit has commented on the report, and Reuters said it could not independently verify the details.
The development follows SpaceX’s recent acquisition of xAI, which pushed the valuation of the combined companies to an impressive $1.25 trillion. The reported competition comes as SpaceX prepares for a potential initial public offering later this year.
The Pentagon has been moving to speed up drone deployment and expand domestic manufacturing capacity, while also seeking tools to counter unauthorized drone activity around airports and major public events. Large-scale gatherings scheduled this year, including the FIFA World Cup and America250 celebrations, have heightened focus on aerial security.
The reported challenge aligns with broader Defense Department investments in artificial intelligence. Last year, OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and xAI secured Pentagon contracts worth up to $200 million each to advance AI capabilities across defense applications.
Elon Musk previously joined AI and robotics researchers in signing a 2015 open letter calling for a ban on offensive autonomous weapons. In recent years, however, Musk has spoken on X about the strengths of drone technologies in combat situations.
News
Doug DeMuro names Tesla Model S the Most Important Car of the last 30 years
In a recent video, the noted reviewer stated that the choice was “not even a question.”
Popular automotive reviewer and YouTuber Doug DeMuro has named the 2012 Tesla Model S as the most important car of the last 30 years.
In a recent video, the noted reviewer stated that the choice was “not even a question,” arguing that the Model S did more to change the trajectory of the auto industry than any other vehicle released since the mid-1990s.
“Unquestionably in my mind, the number one most important car of the last 30 years… it’s not even a question,” DeMuro said. “The 2012 Tesla Model S. There is no doubt that that is the most important car of the last 30 years.”
DeMuro acknowledged that electric vehicle adoption has faced recent headwinds. Still, he maintained that long-term electrification is inevitable.
“If you’re a rational person who’s truthful with yourself, you know that the future is electric… whether it’s 10, 20, 30 years, the future will be electric, and it was the Model S that was the very first car that did that truthfully,” he said.
While earlier EVs like the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt arrived before the Model S, DeMuro argued that they did not fundamentally shift public perception. The Model S proved that EVs “could be cool, could be fast, could be luxurious, could be for enthusiasts.” It showed that buyers did not have to make major compromises to drive electric.
He also described the Model S as a cultural turning point. Tesla became more than a car company. The brand expanded into Superchargers, home energy products, and a broader tech identity.
DeMuro noted that the Leaf and Volt “made a huge splash and taught us that it was possible.” However, he drew a distinction between being first and bringing a technology into the mainstream.
“It’s rarely about the car that does it first. It’s about the car that brings it into the mainstream,” he said. “The Model S was the car that actually won the game even though the Leaf and Volt scored the first.”
He added that perhaps the Model S’ most surprising achievement was proving that a new American automaker could succeed. For decades, industry observers believed the infrastructure and capital requirements made that nearly impossible.
“For decades, it was generally agreed that there would never be another competitive American car company because the infrastructure and the investment required to start up another American car company as just too challenging… It was just a given basically that you couldn’t do it. And not only did they go it, but they created a cultural icon… That car just truly changed the world,” he said.
Tesla Korea hiring AI Chip Engineers amid push for high-volume AI chips
SpaceX and xAI tapped by Pentagon for autonomous drone contest
