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Tesla Robotaxi execution should lead to valuation ‘far exceeding current levels’: analyst

RBC Capital bumped its price target on Tesla stock slightly from $319 to $325.

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Credit: @TerrapinTerpene/X

Tesla’s Robotaxi platform is the primary focus for the automaker currently, and based on what has been outlined by the company as goals for the project, one firm is saying that the company’s valuation should “far exceed even current levels.”

The Robotaxi is a self-driving ride-hailing service that Tesla plans to implement in current and future vehicle builds. CEO Elon Musk and other executives have said that “the vast majority of the Tesla fleet that we’ve made is capable of being a Robotaxi,” thanks to its development of Over-the-Air software updates that increase the capability of the vehicle with a simple download.

Currently, the Robotaxi platform is only active in a portion of Austin, Texas, but Tesla is expanding to other markets, including California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. California will be the next market to open its doors to the Tesla Robotaxi platform.

But the name of the game is execution, and that’s what Tesla is aiming for in a timely fashion. If it can come through on all of its current goals, its valuation could explode, and one firm is holding steady on that narrative as Tesla continues to work toward expanding Robotaxi.

On Tuesday, RBC Capital analysts bumped their price target on Tesla shares (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $325 from $319, primarily due to the Robotaxi expansion and its success:

“Should Tesla be successful on all of its goals, its valuation could far exceed even current levels. The Austin Robotaxi launch has been better than many feared, and the company is looking to expand in more cities.”

There are some risks to Tesla’s narrative, but they fall outside the scope of what the company can control. In relation to Robotaxi, regulatory hurdles remain. Some regions may be slower than others to give Tesla the proper licensing to operate in their jurisdiction. This could slow the pace of Robotaxi expansion, bringing some overhang to the story.

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Additionally, Tesla is fending off narratives of slowing demand, and the White House’s decision to revoke the $7,500 EV tax credit from consumers could temper sales past Q3.

Nevertheless, Robotaxi is where Tesla’s true value seems to be focused. Successfully launching a driverless ride-sharing platform is where the company is putting all of its eggs, and revolutionizing passenger travel is where the focus lies.

RBC Capital’s note continued:

“Regulatory hurdles remain, however. Further, we expect the end of IRA credits and high levels of used EV inventory to pressure the auto business for the next several quarters.”

The slight price target bump puts RBC Capital’s expectations near where the stock is trading, as it is currently priced at around $320 at 9:54 a.m. on the East Coast.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets another new price target as recent events ‘remove large overhang’

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) got another new price target this week after one firm said that recent events “have removed a large overhang on the stock.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) got another new price target this week after one firm said that recent events “have removed a large overhang on the stock.”

This year, Tesla has had an up-and-down performance on Wall Street, but gains over the past month have overshadowed much of the skepticism and pressure on the stock.

However, over the past 30 days, a lot of good things have happened: Tesla has shown it has a lot of demand for its vehicles, which will likely translate to good delivery figures, it figured out a compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk, and the company’s clear focus on Robotaxi and Optimus puts it in a good position for the future as the focus comes off of quarterly deliveries.

Tesla board reveals reasoning for CEO Elon Musk’s new $1 trillion pay package

Deutsche Bank recognized these potential catalysts and wrote in a note to investors:

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“Ahead of 3Q25 deliveries next week, we raise our near-term estimates given stronger volume in the quarter, but keep our full-year and 2026 outlook mostly unchanged. We think Elon Musk’s clear focus on Tesla’s most important efforts (Robotaxi and Optimus) and the recent compensation package have removed a large overhang on the stock going forward, will allow Tesla to benefit from being a leader in embodied AI.”

These points specifically pushed Deutsche Bank’s reasoning for pushing its price target to $435 from $345.

In terms of quarterly deliveries, the firm expects Tesla to report 461,500 for the quarter. “We expect +20% growth in China and N. America, with some decline in Europe as competition and branding continue to weigh in on demand,” Deutsche Bank said.

Wall Street firm makes shock move for Tesla Q3 delivery prediction

Overall, IR-compiled consensus estimates put deliveries at 443,100:

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Tesla received other price target boosts this week, including one from Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who bumped his outlook on the stock from $500 to a Street-high $600.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets new Street-high price target with high hopes for autonomy domination

“We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full-scale volume production begins of the autonomous and robotics roadmap.”

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Credit: Tesla Europe and Middle East | X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a new Street-high price target from Wedbush’s Dan Ives today, who cited high hopes for the company’s prowess in the autonomous sector.

Ives boosted his price target from $500 to $600 today, reflecting the firm’s view that “an accelerated AI path for the company is now on the horizon and investors are underestimating the transformation underway at the company.”

In a new note written to investors on Friday, Ives cited that Tesla’s next stage of growth has arrived as Elon Musk has re-entered his role as a “wartime CEO,” which gives the company a huge advantage over its competitors.

Musk, when fully committed to Tesla, does his best work, and Ives believes the company’s mark on the autonomous sector will continue to expand with the help of the Trump White House.

He wrote:

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“Musk is now driving Tesla into its next stage of growth as ‘wartime CEO,’ and we expect Robotaxis to be rolled out aggressively to over 30 US cities within the next year. We estimate the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla, and we fully expect under a Trump White House over the coming yea,r these key initiatives will now get fast-tracked as the federal regulatory spiderweb that Musk & Co. have encountered over the past few years around FSD/autonomous clears significantly under Trump. Trump wants the US to stay ahead of China in this AI Arms Race, and autonomous is a key factor in who wins AI….with Tesla playing a major role on Robotaxis.”

Most of the note focused on the long-term outlook for Tesla, which is where some of the most drastic claims were made, including ones that estimated a monstrous valuation for the company moving forward.

Ives said Wedbush is under the impression that Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap as early as the beginning of 2026 and a $3 trillion valuation by the end of the year. This growth will be primarily driven by the AI portion of the company’s projects:

“We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap early 2026 in a bull case scenario and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 as full-scale volume production begins of the autonomous and robotics roadmap. The AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story, and we believe the march to an AI-driven valuation for TSLA over the next 6-9 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s installed base and the acceleration of Cybercab in the US representing the golden goose for Musk & Co.”

In the near term, the only true issue at hand is deliveries, which Tesla should likely have a strong quarter thanks to the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit. Ives says he expects a beat of Q3 numbers, driven by an “improving demand out of China.”

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He also said that while he expects this quarter to be strong, Tesla should aim to return to a run-rate of 500,000 deliveries every quarter, equating to approximately 2 million units per year. This will be driven by new, more affordable models, with the tax credit going away:

“On the near-term delivery front we are seeing a stabilization of demand globally that should enable Tesla to beat the Street’s 3Q delivery number with improving demand out of China. Getting back to a ~500k quarterly run-rate will be important as Tesla now looks to introduce new models to its customer base in 2026. There continues to be weak pockets in Europe but we believe Tesla is now starting to see signs of improvement in demand with a stronger growth trajectory into 2026.”

Tesla shares are up over 1.7 percent so far today, trading at around $430.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk trolls Tesla stock skeptics after 23 percent one month boost

“A lot of people thought Tesla stock would collapse as the tax credits came to an end this month,” Musk wrote. “Guess not.”

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Elon Musk spent some time trolling Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) skeptics following the company’s 23 percent boost over the past month.

Tesla’s rally on Wall Street over the past several weeks has completely erased any losses investors felt since the start of 2025. So far this year, shares have risen by over 13 percent.

Most of this has been evident over the past month, as the company has seen a nearly 25 percent increase in the past thirty days.

With the imminent abolishment of the $7,500 EV tax credit, some analysts and investors expected the stock to take a hit. It is no secret that the tax credit’s expiration will impact demand to some extent. In the short term, it has been strong for the company’s delivery outlook in Q3.

Musk trolled those who thought the stock would respond negatively to the tax credit going away:

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The strength of Tesla shares over the past several weeks has prompted several analysts to adjust price targets and their firms’ overall outlook with the company’s automotive division, as well as its other projects.

Mizuho analysts pushed their price target from $375 to $450, mostly due to Tesla’s strength moving forward as a leader in the U.S. EV market.

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Vijay Rakesh, managing director at the firm, wrote in a note to investors:

“We see TSLA maintaining key leadership in the U.S. BEV market despite some near-term challenges.”

Mizuho raises Tesla (TSLA) price target on stronger 2026 outlook

Some of this strength relies on the rollout of the lower-cost “Model 2,” which Tesla said it built the first production units of in its Q2 Earnings Shareholder Deck.

Goldman Sachs also increased its Tesla price target from $300 to $395, which is still below the current trading levels.

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However, the firm is more bullish on the company’s humanoid robotics and autonomy projects:

“If Tesla can have [an] outsized share in areas such as humanoid robotics and autonomy, then there could be upside to our price target.”

Tesla shares are currently trading at $424.54 at the time of publication.

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