

Investor's Corner
Tesla prepares for S&P 500 inclusion: What TSLA investors can expect
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will officially join the S&P 500 index on December 21. Friday’s market activity may set the stage for TSLA’s grand entrance into the S&P 500 index.
The following are some factors to keep in mind as Tesla enters its final trading day before its formal inclusion into the S&P 500.
Quadruple Witching
Quadruple Witching occurs on the third Friday of the month every quarter in March, June, September and December. During quadruple witching, single-stock options, stock-index options, single-stock futures, and stock-index futures expire.
The last trading day before Tesla enters the S&P 500 index will be a quadruple witching day. Traders told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that heavy volumes from expired options and futures could boost liquidity, resulting in a smooth entry for TSLA into the S&P 500 index. RBC Capital Markets estimates that 3% of about $4.7 trillion assets passively tracking the S&P will trade on Friday.
Dark Pools aka Alternative Trading Systems (ATS)
Dark Pools are private exchanges, usually between entities like big banks or institutional clients. Dark Pools give investors the opportunity to place large orders without disrupting the public exchange price while they were looking for a buyer or seller.
Some Tesla investors have wondered if Dark Pool orders were reflected in TSLA’s recent stock activity, especially in terms of volume. According to Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily, the identities of ATS clients are not disclosed but their orders are reported through consolidated tapes, which are also called tape reports.
Dark Pool orders are immediately recorded on tape reports no later than 10 seconds after execution to the Trade Reporting Facilities (TRFs) run by Nasdaq and NYSE in conjunction with FINRA. FINRA considers Dark Pool orders as Over-the-Counter (OTC) equity transactions. OTC equity transactions executed outside normal market hours must be reported by 8:15 a.m. (EST) by the next market open.
Closing Cross Expectations
According to Nasdaq, Closing Cross orders make up almost 10% of its average daily volume. On-close orders allow investors to specifically request an execution at the closing price.
Closing Cross orders could set the weight and price of TSLA as it enters the S&P 500 on Monday, December 21. Tesla investors believe Tesla’s market activity will significantly increase a few minutes before and after the closing bell. Maurer explained that index tracking funds would probably try to buy shares at the closing price to match the S&P 500’s performance as close as possible.
Tracking Errors
Tracking Errors usually occur when an ETF or hedge fund does not effectively match the performance of its benchmark. Given Tesla’s dedicated retail investors, some traders question whether enough sellers will be available during Friday’s trading to fill the large orders index funds are expected to buy at the market close.
If there aren’t enough sellers to fill buyer orders, it could result in big swings for Tesla shares, reported the WSJ.
TSLA stock closed at $655.90 per share at the closing bell on Thursday. As of this writing, Tesla stocks are up 2.91% at $674.74 per share.
Watch Tesla Daily‘s video below to learn more about Dark Pools and On-Close orders.
The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. Leave a comment down below or email us at tips@teslarati.com. You can reach me at maria@teslarati.com.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm
ISS said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package, which was proposed by the company last month, has hit its first bit of adversity from proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS).
Musk has called the firm “ISIS,” a play on its name relating it to the terrorist organization, in the past.
“ISIS”
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 27, 2021
The pay package aims to lock in Musk to the CEO role at Tesla for the next decade, as it will only be paid in full if he is able to unlock each tranche based on company growth, which will reward shareholders.
However, the sum is incredibly large and would give Musk the ability to become the first trillionaire in history, based on his holdings. This is precisely why ISS is advising shareholders to vote against the pay plan.
The group said that Musk’s pay package will lock him in, which is the goal of the Board, and it is especially important to do this because of his “track record and vision.”
However, it also said the size of the pay package will enable Musk to have access to “extraordinarily high pay opportunities over the next ten years,” and it will have an impact on future packages because it will “reduce the board’s ability to meaningfully adjust future pay levels.”
The release from ISS called the size of Musk’s pay package “astronomical” and said its design could continue to pay the CEO massive amounts of money for even partially achieving the goals. This could end up in potential dilution for existing investors.
If Musk were to reach all of the tranches, Tesla’s market cap could reach up to $8.5 trillion, which would make it the most valuable company in the world.
Tesla has made its own attempts to woo shareholders into voting for the pay package, which it feels is crucial not only for retaining Musk but also for continuing to create value for shareholders.
Tesla launched an ad for Elon Musk’s pay package on Paramount+
Musk has also said he would like to have more ownership control of Tesla, so he would not have as much of an issue with who he calls “activist shareholders.”
Investor's Corner
Barclays lifts Tesla price target ahead of Q3 earnings amid AI momentum
Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.

Barclays has raised its price target for Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA), with the firm’s analysts stating that the electric vehicle maker is approaching its Q3 earnings with two contrasting “stories.”
Analyst Dan Levy adjusted his price target for TSLA stock from $275 to $350, while maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating for the EV maker.
Tesla’s AI and autonomy narrative
Levy told investors that Tesla’s “accelerating autonomous and AI narrative,” amplified by CEO Elon Musk’s proposed compensation package, is energizing market sentiment. The analyst stated that expectations for a Q3 earnings-per-share beat are supported by improved vehicle delivery volumes and stronger-than-expected gross margins, as noted in a TipRanks report.
Tesla has been increasingly positioning itself as an AI-driven company, with Elon Musk frequently emphasizing the long-term potential of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and products like Optimus, both of which are heavily driven by AI. The company’s AI focus has also drawn the support of key companies like Nvidia, one of the world’s largest companies today.
Still cautious on TSLA
Despite bullish AI sentiments, Barclays maintained its caution on Tesla’s underlying business metrics. Levy described the firm’s stance as “leaning neutral to slightly negative” heading into the Q3 earnings call, citing concerns about near-term fundamentals of the electric vehicle maker.
Barclays is not the only firm that has expressed its concerns about TSLA stock recently. As per previous reports, BNP Paribas Exane also shared an “Underperform” rating on the company due to its two biggest products, the Robotaxi and Optimus, still generating “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” BNP Paribas, however, also estimated that Tesla will have an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040, and more than 11 million FSD subscriptions by 2030.
Investor's Corner
BNP Paribas Exane initiates Tesla coverage with “Underperform” rating
The firm’s projections for Tesla still include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has received a bearish call from BNP Paribas Exane, which initiated coverage on the stock with an Underperform rating and a $307 price target, about 30% below current levels.
The firm’s analysts argued that Tesla’s valuation is driven heavily by artificial intelligence ventures such as the Robotaxi and Optimus, which are both still not producing any sales today.
Tesla’s valuation
In its note, BNP Paribas Exane stated that Tesla’s two AI-led programs, the Robotaxi and Optimus robots, generate “zero sales today, yet inform ~75% of our ~$1.02 trillion price target.” The research firm’s model projected a maximum bull-case valuation of $2.7 trillion through 2040, but after discounting milestone probabilities, its base-case valuation remained at $1.02 trillion.
The analysts described their outlook as optimistic toward Tesla’s AI ventures but cautioned that the stock’s “unfavorable risk/reward is clear,” adding that consensus earnings expectations for 2026 remain too high. Tesla’s market cap currently stands around $1.44 trillion with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $92.7 billion, which BNP Paribas argued does not justify Tesla’s P/E ratio of 258.59, as noted in an Investing.com report.
Tesla and its peers
BNP Paribas Exane’s report also included a comparative study of the “Magnificent Seven,” finding Tesla’s current market valuation as rather aggressive. “Our unique comparative analysis of the ‘Mag 7’ reveals the extreme nature of TSLA’s valuation, as the market implicitly says TSLA’s 2035 earnings (~55% of which will be driven by Robotaxi & Optimus, w/ zero sales now) have the same level of risk & value-appropriation as the ‘Mag 6’s’ 2026 earnings,” the firm noted.
The firm’s projections for Tesla include an estimated 525,000 active Robotaxis by 2030, 17 million cumulative Optimus robot deliveries by 2040 priced above $20,000 each, and more than 11 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions by 2030. Interestingly enough, these seem to be rather optimistic projections for one of the electric vehicle maker’s more bearish estimates today.
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