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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) stock gets upgraded to “Outperform” at RBC Capital Markets

Credit: @_bennettm_/Twitter

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Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) may be feeling some pressure on Monday’s intraday, but the electric vehicle maker actually received a rather optimistic outlook from RBC Capital Markets. In recent comments, analyst Joseph Spak raised his rating for Tesla from “Perform” to “Outperform,” though he lowered his price target from $1,175 to $1,100 per share.

It’s not only Tesla that is seeing some pressure today. The broader markets also seem poised to fall sharply over fears related to inflation and the possibility of a recession. Tesla stock, for its part, has declined over 30% this year amid Covid-19-related challenges in China and Elon Musk’s efforts to acquire social media platform Twitter.

According to RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak, however, Tesla’s second-quarter margins could surprise as investors are already primed for lower delivery figures. So far, analysts polled by Factset are expecting Tesla to deliver about 287,000 vehicles in Q2 2022. That’s quite a bit lower than the company’s results in the first quarter, when Tesla delivered over 310,000 vehicles from January to March 2022.

The following are Spak’s comments:

“Near-term set-up seems favorable. Visible Alpha 2Q22 consensus delivery forecast is 279k units, though we believe the buyside expects a ~250k print effectively in line with our new 249k forecast. With investors primed for lower deliveries, we believe 2Q22 margins can surprise to upside.

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“1Q22 auto GM ex-credits was 30% and walking q/q lower volume, higher depreciation weigh, but pricing can offset (see our walk inside). We forecast 2Q22 auto GM ex-credits at ~28.6%. Visible Alpha consensus 2Q22 auto gross margins ex-credits is 26.4%, but that is also built on that 279k unit forecast which is likely to come down.”

“So we see the potential for low margin expectations and hence a margin beat. Looking ahead, we are positive as well. For 3Q22, RBC i s at 396k deliveries vs. consensus at 378k, and we see 2H22 auto gross margins >30% as Shanghai gets back to pace, Berlin and Texas ramp, and pricing gains continue,” the analyst noted.

RBC credited Tesla’s efforts to secure critical materials that it would need to ramp its operations to a significant scale. The firm also cited Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part 3, which seems focused on scaling Tesla to such a degree that it could have a notable effect on the world as a whole.

“(Tesla’s) early focus on vertical integration (not just batteries/raw materials but also motors, semis, software) is likely to pay off especially as industry supply of critical materials may become an issue in 2027/28 and TSLA may be able to control more of their own destiny.

“Indeed, it appears Elon’s Master Plan Part 3 is likely to focus on achieving very large scale to shift the transportation/energy infrastructure. TSLA earnings and cash generation over the coming years, in addition to their ability to use their stock as currency, can help them build out and secure materials giving them a strong competitive advantage,” RBC noted.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.

Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.

Building confidence

In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.

Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.

https://twitter.com/AIStockSavvy/status/1975893527344345556

Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious

While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.

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“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.

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Investor's Corner

Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025. 

The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.

On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025

During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report. 

“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.

A bright spot in Tesla Energy

Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.

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“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated. 

Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.

JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

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