Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) could be in striking distance of a short squeeze soon: Piper Jaffray
Back in the second quarter, Elon Musk predicted that the “short burn of the century” was coming soon. During that time, Tesla was racing to hit a Model 3 production rate of 5,000 units per week. The electric car maker did reach its Q2 production goals for the Model 3 then, though Elon Musk’s prediction did not come to pass.
If a recent statement from Wall Street is any indication, Tesla might actually be closing in on what could be a very notable and very realistic short squeeze.
In an appearance at CNBC’s Trading Nation, Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Jaffray, stated that Tesla’s outperformance has made life quite difficult for the company’s short-sellers. This has been particularly notable recently, as Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) soared higher even as the market mostly spiraled down. In the past three months alone, TSLA has gone up 37%, while the Nasdaq plunged 8%.
Such strength, according to Johnson, has been making short-sellers quite nervous. During his recent CNBC appearance, the Piper Jaffray chief market technician stated that Tesla’s short interest ratio has been falling since around April, when it peaked at 31% of the company’s float. Johnson noted that if Tesla breaks through a key level of resistance, the company could realistically be within striking distance of a massive short covering.
“If we get a close above this $390 level, it’s going to suggest a topside breakout with a measured price objective based on the charts perhaps about $525 to $550. The shorts are going to be covering quickly and providing even a further squeeze higher from here,” the chief market technician said.
For such a squeeze to happen, though, Tesla would have to break the high of $389.61 it achieved in September 2017. A move to $525 represents a 46% upside from TSLA stock’s current price of around $360 per share as well.
Tesla is positioned pretty well this fourth quarter to deliver a big blow to short-sellers. The company’s fundamentals, after all, have been showing signs of strength since the end of the third quarter, when Tesla surprised Wall Street by posting $6.8 billion in revenue. This fourth quarter, Tesla seems poised to produce and deliver another record number of electric cars, thanks to the introduction of the Mid Range Model 3 last October. The phase-out period of the $7,500 federal tax credit in the United States is also expected to push the company’s numbers for Q4 even further.
Tesla’s Fremont factory and Gigafactory 1 in Nevada seem to be operating optimally as well. Elon Musk has noted that Tesla is now at a point where producing 5,000 Model 3 per week is no big deal, and the pieces are being put in place for a ramp towards even higher production numbers. The Model 3’s most disruptive variant, the $35,000 Standard Range RWD version, is getting closer to production. Overseas, progress for the construction of Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai is also moving at an extremely rapid pace.
Tesla had the cards stacked against it for the most part of the year, but the company has powered through. With possibly even better fundamentals this fourth quarter, Elon Musk’s predicted “short burn of the century” might finally be coming — and just as it is with many things Tesla, it could just be happening in Elon Time.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +0.77% at $360.73.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments
Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.
Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.
Baron doubles down on Tesla
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.
“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.
A lifelong investment
Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.
“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”
Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.
@teslarati :rotating_light: This is why you need to use off-peak rates at Tesla Superchargers! #tesla #evcharging #fyp ♬ Blue Moon – Muspace Lofi
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