Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 to begin in second half of 2019: report
The development of Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 continues to move at a rapid pace, with recent reports suggesting that electric car production in the upcoming facility could begin as early as the second half of 2019. Provided that there are no delays in the construction of the factory itself, and provided that Tesla can ship and set up its production lines on time, the latter half of 2019 could signal the beginning of Model 3 production in China.
Local media outlet Caijing.com noted that the factory is about to begin construction, particularly since the 864,885-square meter plot of land in the Lingang Industrial Zone has been leveled. In a post on its official WeChat account, the Shanghai government further indicated that Mayor Ying Yong and Vice Mayor Wu Qing have met with Tesla’s leaders in China while checking the company’s new vehicles like the Model 3. During their visit, the Shanghai officials reportedly encouraged parties involved in the project to expedite the construction of Gigafactory 3 even more.
The progress of Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 has been nothing short of remarkable. When Elon Musk announced the target timeline for the project earlier this year, the company’s critics were immediately skeptical. Tesla initially noted that vehicle production in Gigafactory 3 would start roughly two years after the facility’s construction begins, ramping to an output of 500,000 vehicles per year 2-3 years after. The timeline, which could only be described as classic Elon Musk, was met with doubts from Wall Street. Consumer Edge Research senior auto analyst James Albertine, for one, dubbed Gigafactory 3’s timeline as “not feasible.”
Despite its initial timeline already being met by raised eyebrows from Wall Street, Tesla announced an even more aggressive target for the project after its stellar third quarter. In its Q3 vehicle production and deliveries report, Tesla noted that it was accelerating the construction of Gigafactory 3. The company also noted that it expects the facility’s construction to be rapid and capital-efficient, thanks to lessons learned from the Model 3 ramp in the United States.
Beyond the lessons from the Model 3 ramp, credit is due to the Chinese government for its support for Tesla and the upcoming factory. Local state media has been openly supportive of the project and Tesla as a whole, and the government even bent its rules a little by allowing the electric car maker to become the sole owner of Gigafactory 3. The government’s support became particularly evident when Tesla went unchallenged in its bid for an 864,885-square meter plot of land in Shanghai’s Lingang area, as well as in the rapid release of low-interest loans for the project from local Shanghai banks.
November 29th 2018, Tesla Direct Experience Center officially grand opening at the Wenzhou Fortune Experience Center. To date, Tesla has more than 44 direct experience centers and service centers in mainland China 🇨🇳 .$TSLA #Tesla #China #TeslaChina pic.twitter.com/X8nJHVJCNz
— vincent (@vincent13031925) November 30, 2018
The Chinese government’s favor for Tesla has allowed the company to maintain a strong brand in the country, despite challenges posed by a 40% import tariff placed on the Model S and Model X due to the trade war between China and the United States. Even before US President Donald Trump announced on Twitter that the Chinese government has agreed to “reduce and remove” import tariffs on vehicles from the United States, Tesla’s electric cars, particularly the Model 3, have been garnering a lot of interest among Chinese consumers. This interest became evident during a recent job fair at the Lingang Industrial Zone, when Tesla was forced to extend its hiring hours due to the overwhelming number of applicants for job openings at Gigafactory 3.
Considering China’s reputation for building large-scale facilities in record time, an initial Model 3 production run in Gigafactory 3 by the second half of 2019 is actually quite feasible. With the country’s capability to construct the facility quickly, the start of Model 3 production in China next year would likely be limited only by Tesla’s capability to ship and set up its vehicle production lines on time. If Tesla can accomplish this, there is very little that can go in the way of Gigafactory 3 producing the Model 3 for the local Chinese market before 2019 ends.
Tesla has the potential to be a force in China’s auto market, particularly as the country is aggressively pushing the electrification of its transport sector. China is on track to sell 2 million electric vehicles by 2020 and attain an ICE to EV ratio of 1:1 by 2030. Tesla’s Gigafactory 3, which is expected to produce 500,000 cars per year, could go a long way in helping the country achieve its own ambitious electric car goals, particularly as the company is expected to produce its two mass-market vehicles in the facility — the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y SUV.
Elon Musk
Trump’s invite for Elon just reshuffled Tesla’s big Signature Delivery Event
Tesla rescheduled its final Model S farewell to May 20 after Musk joined Trump in China.
Tesla has rescheduled its Model S and Model X Signature Edition delivery event to Wednesday, May 20, 2026, after abruptly calling off the original May 12 celebration. The event will take place at Tesla’s factory at 45500 Fremont Boulevard in Fremont, California, the same location where the Model S first rolled off the line in 2012. Invitees received a follow-up email asking them to reconfirm attendance and download a new QR code ticket, with Tesla noting that all travel and accommodation expenses remain the buyer’s responsibility.
The reason behind the original cancellation came into focus the same day it was announced. President Trump invited Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, and executives from Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Meta to join his trip to China this week for a summit with President Xi Jinping. The agenda covers trade, artificial intelligence, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war, following weeks of escalating friction between Washington and Beijing over AI technology, sanctions, and rare earth exports. Trump wrote on Truth Social, “I am very much looking forward to my trip to China, an amazing Country, with a Leader, President Xi, respected by all.”
Tesla launches 200mph Model S “Gold” Signature in invite-only purchase
The vehicles at the center of all this are the last Model S and Model X units Tesla will ever build. Priced at $159,420 each, the 250 Model S and 100 Model X Signature Edition units come finished in Garnet Red with a one-year no-resale agreement, giving Tesla right of first refusal if the owner decides to sell. As Teslarati reported, the Model S defined Tesla’s early identity as a serious luxury automaker, and the Fremont factory line that built it is now being converted to manufacture Optimus humanoid robots.
Musk’s inclusion in the China delegation drew attention given his very public relationship with Trump, and the invitation signals the two have moved past and past grievances. Trump originally brought Musk on to lead the Department of Government Efficiency following his inauguration, and despite a sharp public dispute in mid-2025, the two have appeared together repeatedly in recent months. A seat on the China trip, the most diplomatically consequential visit of Trump’s current term, puts Musk back at the table on U.S. economic policy at a moment when Tesla’s China revenue remains one of the company’s most important financial pillars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors from a fiscal standpoint, at least that is what Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler, a top Wall Street firm covering the company, says.
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Analyst Alexander Potter, in the firm’s latest “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” built a comprehensive framework covering 17 separate product lines.
This granular approach values Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, in-house insurance, Supercharging network, and a standalone robotaxi operation—at approximately $400 per share, without assigning any value to Optimus or related inference-as-a-service opportunities.
“At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” Potter stated in the note. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Tesla shares and a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot-related businesses— a figure the analyst views as potentially conservative.
The updated model incorporates elements often overlooked by other sell-side analysts, such as detailed forecasts for Tesla’s insurance operations, Supercharger revenue, and a distinct valuation for the robotaxi business separate from FSD software licensing. It also accounts for Tesla’s 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time.
Potter acknowledged that his estimates for 2026 and 2027 fall below Wall Street consensus, citing factors like declining deliveries from certain discontinued models and reduced regulatory credit income.
However, he expressed limited concern, noting that traditional vehicle delivery metrics are expected to matter less over time as FSD subscriber growth and robotaxi deployment metrics gain prominence. On Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the humanoid robot program, combined with inference services, “arguably will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” though the firm has not yet produced formal long-term forecasts for these segments.
Tesla shares have traded near the $400 range in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing investor focus on the company’s autonomous driving progress and expansion into robotics and AI. The Optimus project remains in early development stages, with Tesla aiming to deploy the robots initially for internal factory tasks before broader commercial applications.
This Piper Sandler analysis highlights the growing emphasis among some investors and analysts on Tesla’s long-term technology platform potential beyond its current automotive and energy businesses.
As with any forward-looking valuation, outcomes will depend on execution timelines, technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals for autonomous systems, and market adoption of humanoid robotics—areas that carry significant uncertainty and execution risk.
The note underscores a common theme in Tesla coverage: differing views on how to quantify emerging high-growth opportunities like robotics within the company’s overall enterprise value. Investors are advised to consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence regarding these speculative elements.
Elon Musk
Tesla confirmed HW3 can’t do Unsupervised FSD but there’s more to the story
Tesla confirmed HW3 vehicles cannot run unsupervised FSD, replacing its free upgrade promise with a discounted trade-in.
Tesla has officially confirmed that early vehicles with its Autopilot Hardware 3 (HW3) will not be capable of unsupervised Full Self-Driving, while extending a path forward for legacy owners through a discounted trade-in program. The announcement came by way of Elon Musk in today’s Tesla Q1 2026 earnings call.
🚨 Our LIVE updates on the Tesla Earnings Call will take place here in a thread 🧵
Follow along below: pic.twitter.com/hzJeBitzJU
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 22, 2026
The history here matters. HW3 launched in April 2019, and Tesla sold Full Self-Driving packages to owners on the understanding that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. Some owners paid between $8,000 and $15,000 for FSD during that period. For years, as FSD’s AI models grew more demanding, HW3 vehicles fell progressively further behind, eventually landing on FSD v12.6 in January 2025 while AI4 vehicles moved to v13 and then v14. When Musk acknowledged in January 2025 that HW3 simply could not reach unsupervised operation, and alluded to a difficult hardware retrofit.
The near-term offering is more concrete. Tesla’s head of Autopilot Ashok Elluswamy confirmed on today’s call that a V14-lite will be coming to HW3 vehicles in late June, bringing all the V14 features currently running on AI4 hardware. That is a meaningful software update for owners who have been frozen at v12.6 for over a year, and it represents genuine effort to keep older hardware relevant. Unsupervised FSD for vehicles is now targeted for Q4 2026 at the earliest, with Musk describing it as a gradual, geography-limited rollout.
For HW3 owners, the over-the-air V14-lite update is welcomed, and the discounted trade-in path at least acknowledges an old obligation. What happens next with the trade-in pricing will define how this chapter ultimately gets written. If Tesla prices the hardware path fairly, acknowledges what early adopters are owed, and delivers V14-lite on the June timeline it committed to today, it has a real opportunity to convert one of the longest-running sore subjects among early adopters into a loyalty story.
Trump’s invite for Elon just reshuffled Tesla’s big Signature Delivery Event
Tesla launches its solution to rare but relevant Supercharger problem
