News
Tesla stock (TSLA) could double thanks to edge in battery tech: Wall St veteran
Gary Black, a private investor who was once considered as one of Wall Street’s most prominent analysts in the tobacco industry, believes he has found the reason why Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) continues to climb. According to the finance veteran, a lot of it has to do with the company’s battery technology that just so happens to be head and shoulders above the competition.
On Thursday, Tesla’s stock ended the day at $404.04 a share, giving the company a $73 billion market value. Both of these are records for the electric car maker, and there may be more upside if the company meets its delivery and production targets this fourth quarter. That being said, Black noted in a statement to Barron’s that a lot of Tesla’s momentum is due to the company’s batteries, which give its vehicles like the Model S their industry-leading range.
“When you talk to dealers and non-EV users, the biggest obstacle to buying an EV is battery charge. People want the most range,” Black said.
Recent electric car releases from veteran automakers have only emphasized Tesla’s lead in efficiency and range. A Model 3 Standard Range Plus, for example, starts at $39,990 and offers 250 miles of emission-free driving. On the other hand, a Porsche Taycan Turbo, which costs about $150,000, will only offer 201 miles of range as per estimates from the EPA. That’s 20% less range for the Taycan at over three times the cost of the Model 3 Standard Range Plus.
While a longtime short thesis against Tesla argues that the young company will be buried by electric cars from more experienced rivals, Black remains confident that Tesla will continue to thrive. The veteran noted that Mercedes has delayed the release of its electric car, the EQC, in the United States. Meanwhile, Jaguar and Audi’s battery-powered vehicles have lagged in sales. Part of this is likely due to the vehicles’ range, as well as their lack of a dedicated charging infrastructure like Tesla’s Supercharger Network.
Considering its lead in battery tech, Black believes that Tesla’s sales could hit 1.8 million units annually by 2024. This would equate to around 10% of the United States car market and $8 billion in earnings before interest, taxes or depreciation. This also means that TSLA stock could double to about $800 per share in 2024. “I’m a value investor but I like to buy growth companies at a discount to intrinsic value,” Black said.
This becomes particularly feasible when Tesla’s constant improvements to its battery tech are taken into account. President of Automotive Jerome Guillen previously stated that Tesla’s batteries are never static, as they are always in a constant state of improvement. The company has been pretty secretive about the details of its latest battery tech innovations, but the unveiling of vehicles like the Cybertruck, whose top-tier variant goes over 500 miles of range for a price that’s less than $70,000, suggests that these improvements are significant.
Tesla currently holds 78% of the electric vehicle market in the United States. Black believes that with competition steadily increasing, the company must be prepared to see its overall presence in the market drop to around 40%. He thinks that drivers who currently utilize electric cars will eventually grow from 3% to 25% of the market, equivalent to 1.8 million battery-powered vehicles on the road. Nevertheless, if competition continues to be as anemic as it has been so far, Tesla may end up holding on to its dominant market share in the US’ EV industry longer than expected.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
News
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla’s domestic sales in China held steady in November with around 73,000 units delivered, but a closer look at the Model Y L’s numbers hints at an emerging shift towards pricier variants that could very well be boosting average selling prices and margins.
This suggests that the addition of the Model Y L to Tesla China’s lineup will not result in a case of cannibalization, but a possible case of “premiumization” instead.
Tesla China’s November domestic numbers
Data from the a Passenger Car Association (CPCA) indicated that Tesla China saw domestic deliveries of about 73,000 vehicles in November 2025. This number included 34,000 standard Model Y units, 26,000 Model 3 units, and 13,000 Model Y L units, as per industry watchers.
This means that the Model Y L accounted for roughly 27% of Tesla China’s total Model Y sales, despite the variant carrying a ~28% premium over the base RWD Model Y that is estimated to have dominated last year’s mix.
As per industry watcher @TSLAFanMtl, this suggests that Tesla China’s sales have moved towards more premium variants this year. Thus, direct year-over-year sales comparisons might miss the bigger picture. This is true even for the regular Model Y, as another premium trim, the Long Range RWD variant, was also added to the lineup this 2025.
November 2025 momentum
While Tesla China’s overall sales this year have seen challenges, the Model Y and Model 3 have remained strong sellers in the country. This is especially impressive as the Model Y and Model 3 are premium-priced vehicles, and they compete in the world’s most competitive electric vehicle market. Tesla China is also yet to roll out the latest capabilities of FSD in China, which means that its vehicles in the country could not tap into their latest capabilities yet.
Aggregated results from November suggest that the Tesla Model Y took the crown as China’s #1 best-selling SUV during the month, with roughly 34,000 deliveries. With the Model Y L, this number is even higher. The Tesla Model 3 also had a stellar month, seeing 25,700 deliveries during November 2025.
Cybertruck
Tesla Cybertruck earns IIHS Top Safety Pick+ award
To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.
The Tesla Cybertruck has achieved the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety’s (IIHS) highest honor, earning a Top Safety Pick+ rating for 2025 models built after April 2025.
The full-size electric pickup truck’s safety rating is partly due to the vehicle’s strong performance in updated crash tests, superior front crash prevention, and effective headlights, among other factors. To commemorate the accolade, the official Cybertruck account celebrated the milestone on X.
Cybertruck’s IIHS rating
As per the IIHS, beginning with 2025 Cybertruck models built after April 2025, changes were made to the front underbody structure and footwell to improve occupant safety in driver-side and passenger-side small overlap front crashes. The moderate overlap front test earned a good rating, and the updated side impact test also received stellar marks.
The Cybertruck’s front crash prevention earned a good rating in pedestrian scenarios, with the standard Collision Avoidance Assist avoiding collisions in day and night tests across child, adult crossing, and parallel paths. Headlights with high-beam assist compensated for limitations, contributing to the top award.
Safest and most autonomous pickup
The Cybertruck is one of only two full-size pickups to receive the IIHS’ Top Safety Pick + rating. It is also the only one equipped with advanced self-driving features via Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system. Thanks to FSD, the Cybertruck can navigate inner city streets and highways on its own with minimal supervision, adding a layer of safety beyond passive crash protection.
Community reactions poured in, with users praising the vehicle’s safety rating amidst skepticism from critics. Tesla itself highlighted this by starting its X post with a short clip of a Cybertruck critic who predicted that the vehicle will likely not pass safety tests. The only question now is, of course, if the vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating from the IIHS will help the Cybertruck improve its sales.
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Tesla Model Y L is gaining momentum in China’s premium segment
