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Tesla (TSLA) gets optimistic outlook from Wall St ahead of Q3 2018 earnings report

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Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) are holding their gains as the company heads towards its third-quarter earnings call. Following a 12.72% rise on Tuesday amidst the company’s earlier-than-expected earnings announcement and a vocal short-seller’s change of heart, Tesla stock was up 2.51% on Wednesday’s opening bell, breaching the $300 barrier and trading at $301.52 per share.

With the electric car maker invoking a sense of confidence with its upcoming earnings call, several Wall Street analysts have adopted an optimistic outlook on the company. JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha, for one, gave Tesla an “Outperform” rating and a $350 price target, citing the accumulated “expertise” that the company has exhibited in electric vehicle development and manufacturing.

Baird analyst Ben Kallo has also given Tesla an “Outperform” rating, stating that the company’s positive cash flow could prove sufficient to drive TSLA shares higher. With regards to the upcoming earnings call, Kallo noted that management might provide additional details on how the company intends to increase its production capabilities over the next few quarters.

New Street Research’s Pierre Ferragu has given TSLA stock a “Buy” rating, stating that he expects major free cash flow beat in the third quarter, and continued positive free cash flow in Q4 and beyond. Ferragu noted that Tesla might still raise equity down the line to strengthen its balance sheet, but the company would likely do it only in good market conditions and at the right price.

James Albertine of Consumer Edge further noted that Tesla’s fundamentals had seen a notable improvement in the third quarter, thanks to the ramp of higher-margin Model 3 that sold for around $50,000 to $55,000. The Wall Street analyst has an “Equalweight” rating on Tesla ahead of the company’s Q3 2018 earnings call.

Even Brian Johnson of Barclays, who has an “Underweight” rating on TSLA stock, notes that a sharp increase in Tesla’s deliveries and production have set up a “bear trap.” Johnson further stated that Tesla could have boosted its cash balance by about $800 million in the quarter, bringing the company’s balance to around $3.5 billion.

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Tesla shares have exhibited an immense amount of volatility in the past couple of months, partly due to the actions of Elon Musk. During August, for example, Musk posted a tweet stating that he was considering taking Tesla private at $420 per share, and that he had “funding secured.” The fallout of Musk’s “funding secured” tweet included an eventual lawsuit from the Securities and Exchange Commission, who alleged that the CEO misled investors with his Twitter announcement. Musk and the SEC would later reach a settlement, but the damage to Tesla stock would be notable.

Elon Musk giving YouTube tech reviewer Marques Brownlee a tour of the Fremont factory. [Credit: MKBHD/YouTube]

Despite the noise surrounding the company and its CEO, though, the fundamentals of Tesla have been exhibiting signs of improvement. When the company released its vehicle production and deliveries report, for one, Tesla revealed that in the third quarter, it had manufactured a total of 80,142 electric cars including 53,239 Model 3, and delivered a total of 83,500 vehicles, comprised of 55,840 Model 3, 14,470 Model S, and 13,190 Model X. VIN registrations for the Model 3 seem to be picking up this October, and a new variant of the electric sedan, the Mid Range Model 3 RWD, was unveiled earlier this month as well.

Overall, this upcoming Q3 2018 earnings call could be historic for the electric car maker. With Tesla out of “production hell,” the company might be on the cusp of entering an era where it is making money. In Elon Musk’s words earlier this year, it’s high time that Tesla starts showing some profit for all its hard work.  

Tesla’s Q3 Update letter would be posted on Tesla’s Investor Relations website after markets close today. Tesla would start its Q3 earnings call at 3:30 pm Pacific Time (6:30 pm Eastern Time).

As of writing, Tesla shares are trading -1.02% at $291.14 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Tesla blacklisted by Swedish pension fund AP7 as it sells entire stake

A Swedish pension fund is offloading its Tesla holdings for good.

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tesla
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla shares have been blacklisted by the Swedish pension fund AP7, who said earlier today that it has “verified violations of labor rights in the United States” by the automaker.

The fund ended up selling its entire stake, which was worth around $1.36 billion when it liquidated its holdings in late May. Reuters first reported on AP7’s move.

Other pension and retirement funds have relinquished some of their Tesla holdings due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in politics, among other reasons, and although the company’s stock has been a great contributor to growth for many funds over the past decade, these managers are not willing to see past the CEO’s right to free speech.

However, AP7 says the move is related not to Musk’s involvement in government nor his political stances. Instead, the fund said it verified several labor rights violations in the U.S.:

“AP7 has decided to blacklist Tesla due to verified violations of labor rights in the United States. Despite several years of dialogue with Tesla, including shareholder proposals in collaboration with other investors, the company has not taken sufficient measures to address the issues.”

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Tesla made up about 1 percent of the AP7 Equity Fund, according to a spokesperson. This equated to roughly 13 billion crowns, but the fund’s total assets were about 1,181 billion crowns at the end of May when the Tesla stake was sold off.

Tesla has had its share of labor lawsuits over the past few years, just as any large company deals with at some point or another. There have been claims of restrictions against labor union supporters, including one that Tesla was favored by judges, as they did not want pro-union clothing in the factory. Tesla argued that loose-fitting clothing presented a safety hazard, and the courts agreed.

tesla employee

(Photo: Tesla)

There have also been claims of racism at the Fremont Factory by a former elevator contractor named Owen Diaz. He was awarded a substantial sum of $137m. However, U.S. District Judge William Orrick ruled the $137 million award was excessive, reducing it to $15 million. Diaz rejected this sum.

Another jury awarded Diaz $3.2 million. Diaz’s legal team said this payout was inadequate. He and Tesla ultimately settled for an undisclosed amount.

AP7 did not list any of the current labor violations that it cited as its reason for

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Investor's Corner

xAI targets $5 billion debt offering to fuel company goals

Elon Musk’s xAI is targeting a $5B debt raise, led by Morgan Stanley, to scale its artificial intelligence efforts.

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(Credit: xAI)

xAI’s $5 billion debt offering, marketed by Morgan Stanley, underscores Elon Musk’s ambitious plans to expand the artificial intelligence venture. The xAI package comprises bonds and two loans, highlighting the company’s strategic push to fuel its artificial intelligence development.

Last week, Morgan Stanley began pitching a floating-rate term loan B at 97 cents on the dollar with a variable interest rate of 700 basis points over the SOFR benchmark, one source said. A second option offers a fixed-rate loan and bonds at 12%, with terms contingent on investor appetite. This “best efforts” transaction, where the debt size hinges on demand, reflects cautious lending in an uncertain economic climate.

According to Reuters sources, Morgan Stanley will not guarantee the issue volume or commit its own capital in the xAI deal, marking a shift from past commitments. The change in approach stems from lessons learned during Musk’s 2022 X acquisition when Morgan Stanley and six other banks held $13 billion in debt for over two years.

Morgan Stanley and the six other banks backing Musk’s X acquisition could only dispose of that debt earlier this year. They capitalized on X’s improved operating performance over the previous two quarters as traffic on the platform increased engagement around the U.S. presidential elections. This time, Morgan Stanley’s prudent strategy mitigates similar risks.

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Beyond debt, xAI is in talks to raise $20 billion in equity, potentially valuing the company between $120 billion and $200 billion, sources said. In April, Musk hinted at a significant valuation adjustment for xAI, stating he was looking to put a “proper value” on xAI during an investor call.

As xAI pursues this $5 billion debt offering, its financial strategy positions it to lead the AI revolution, blending innovation with market opportunity.

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Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge

Tesla’s future lies beyond cars—with robotaxis, humanoid bots & AI-driven factories. Cathie Wood predicts a 9x surge in 5 years.

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Cathie Wood shared that Tesla is her top stock pick. During Steven Bartlett’s podcast “The Diary Of A CEO,” the Ark Invest founder highlighted Tesla’s innovative edge, citing its convergence of robotics, energy storage, and AI.

“Because think about it. It is a convergence among three of our major platforms. So, robots, energy storage, AI,” Wood said of Tesla. She emphasized the company’s potential beyond its current offerings, particularly with its Optimus robots.

“And it’s not stopping with robotaxis; there’s a story beyond that with humanoid robots, and our $2,600 number has nothing for humanoid robots. We just thought it’d be an investment, period,” she added.

In June 2024, Ark Invest issued a $2,600 price target for Tesla, which Wood reaffirmed in a March Bloomberg interview, projecting the stock to reach this level within five years. She told Bartlett that Tesla’s Optimus robots would drive productivity gains and create new revenue streams.

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Elon Musk echoed Wood’s optimism in a CNBC interview last month.

“We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible,” Musk said.

Tesla’s stock has faced volatility lately, hitting a peak closing price of $479 in December after President Donald Trump’s election win. However, Musk’s involvement with the White House DOGE office triggered protests and boycotts, contributing to a stock decline of over 40% from mid-December highs by March.

The volatility in Tesla stock alarmed investors, who urged Musk to refocus on the company. In a May earnings call, Musk responded, stating he would be “scaling down his involvement with DOGE to focus on Tesla.” Through it all, Cathie Wood and Ark Invest maintained their faith in Tesla. Wood, in particular, predicted that the “brand damage” Tesla experienced earlier this year would not be long term.

Despite recent fluctuations, Wood’s confidence in Tesla underscores its potential to redefine industries through AI and robotics. As Musk shifts his focus back to Tesla, the company’s advancements in Optimus and other innovations could drive it toward Wood’s ambitious $2,600 target, positioning Tesla as a leader in the evolving tech landscape.

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