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Tesla Q1 Earnings Call: Tidbits You May Have Missed

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Tesla Fremont factory captured via drone [Source: Stephen Powelson]

Tesla reported Q1 financials yesterday which was unusually full of several surprises and all pretty positive for Tesla bulls.

Aside from learning that Elon Musk has set up camp at the Fremont factory and has a sleeping bag near the end of the Model X production line, the Tesla CEO also revealed several unique tidbits during the Q1 conference call.

The Tesla Fleet

Elon was asked what kind of advantage is the “fleet”? He answered that: “data is everything. Teslas drive million of miles per day. We will likely need an even larger amount of data: billions of miles per day. Once high volume statistics are available, we will be able to replace humans to improve on the number of fatalities.” Interestingly Elon stated that Tesla does not have a goal to forbid manual driving, but autonomous safety should always aid in avoiding accidents. But people that like to drive manually (i.e., people like me that like to set up “launch mode” while waiting on traffic lights) should be allowed to drive as they please [I know I’ll get comments for saying this :-)].

Model 3 

A very interesting new piece of information was the July 1, 2017 deadline for suppliers of Model 3 parts. Elon said that “one always needs a deadline,  even if July 1 for SURE will not be  met, as something is always late.” The model 3 will be the first car designed to be easy to make. When asked if there is any recourse against suppliers that fail commitments Elon said that Tesla will meet with the Team of each supplier, not just the CEO. And they will get commitments from what he called the “A-Team” of each supplier.

When asked if Tesla will need more capital this year, Elon stated that he does not want to rely on Model 3 reservations for capital. So there will be a need of a combination of capital & debt.

Regarding the demographic of Model 3 reservation holders, Elon disclosed that  93% of reservation holders are new Tesla customers, while 7% are owners.  And unexpectedly the Model 3 announcement actually increased demand of Model S vehicles.

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New plant(s) and Gigafactories?

The issue of the need for additional plants for Model 3 was raised by several brokers. Elon responded that manufacturing in Europe and Asia would be more efficient, but Tesla would not raise new funds for a new factory until Fremont was at capacity, possibly at 1M vehicles / year. One big “new” unexpected item in this regard was the prediction that Tesla would deliver 1M vehicles in 2020. And also unexpected was that Elon believes this is feasible in Fremont. On the other hand Elon asked himself  “but is it wise? Probably better to localize production by continent”. Similarly Elon was asked if Tesla would need a second Gigafactory for Model 3 delivery.  He answered that Tesla can continue to expand and not steal from Tesla Energy to deliver Model 3.

Production numbers

Elon disclosed that current production is at about 2,000 vehicles / week, with 40% Model X and 60% Model S.  He admitted also that “Model X is the most difficult car to manufacture EVER.”

The new production goal in  2018 is now 500K vehicles, 2 years earlier than originally expected, due to high Model 3 demand. The “S ramp” to that number is very difficult to predict, especially the early exponential part. He then opened his  “crystal ball”:  he actually predicted “maybe 100-150K Model S & X, 300-400K Model 3. Hard to say.”

Related: Tesla 2016 Q1 Earnings

Investor's Corner

Tesla “best positioned” for Trump tariffs among automakers: analyst

Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives recently shared his thoughts about Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) amidst the Trump administration’s tariffs. As per Ives, Tesla is best-positioned relative to its rivals when it comes to the ongoing tariff issue.

Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

Best Positioned

During an interview with Yahoo Finance, the segment’s hosts asked about his thoughts on Tesla, especially considering Musk’s work with the Trump administration. Musk has previously stated that the effects of tariffs on Tesla are significant due to parts that are imported from abroad.

“When it comes to the tariff issue, they are actually best positioned relative to the Detroit Big Three and others and obviously foreign automakers. Still impacted, Musk has talked about that, in terms of just auto parts,” Ives stated.

China and Musk

Ives also stated that ultimately, a big factor for Tesla in the coming months may be the Chinese market’s reactions to its tariff war. He also noted that the next few quarters will be pivotal for Tesla considering the brand damage that Elon Musk has incited due to his politics and work with the Trump administration.

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“When it comes to Tesla, I think the worry is where does retaliatory look like in China, in terms of buying domestic. I think that’s something that’s a play. And they have a pivotal six months head, in terms of what everything we see in Austin, autonomous, and the buildout. 

“But the brand issues that Musk self-inflicted is dealing with in terms of demand destruction in Europe and the US. And that’s why this is a key few quarters ahead for Tesla and also for Musk to make, in my opinion, the right decision to take a step back from the administration,” Ives noted.

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Tesla negativity “priced into the stock at its current levels:” CFRA analyst

The CFRA analyst has given Tesla a price target of $360 per share.

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Credit: Tesla China

In recent comments to the Schwab Network, CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson stated that a lot of the “negative sentiment towards Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is priced into the stock at its current levels.”

The CFRA analyst has given Tesla a price target of $360 per share.

Q1 A Low Point in Sales

The CFRA analyst stated that Tesla’s auto sales likely bottomed last quarter, as noted in an Insider Monkey report. This was, Nelson noted, due to Q1 typically being the “weakest quarter for automakers.” He also highlighted that all four of Tesla’s vehicle factories across the globe were idled in the first quarter.

While Nelson highlighted the company’s changeover to the new Model Y as a factor in Q1, he also acknowledged the effects of CEO Elon Musk’s politics. The analyst noted that while Tesla lost customers due to Musk’s political opinions, the electric vehicle maker has also gained some new customers in the process.

CFRA’s Optimistic Stance

Nelson also highlighted that Tesla’s battery storage business has been growing steadily over the years, ending its second-best quarter in Q1 2025. The analyst noted that Tesla Energy has higher margins than the company’s electric vehicle business, and Tesla itself has a very strong balance sheet.

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The CFRA analyst also predicted that Tesla could gain market share in the United States because it has less exposure to the Trump administration’s tariffs. Teslas are the most American-made vehicles in the country, so the Trump tariffs’ effects on the company will likely be less notable compared to other automakers that produce their cars abroad.

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Tesla average transaction prices (ATP) rise in March 2025: Cox Automotive

Tesla Model Y and Model 3 saw an increase in their average transaction price (ATP) in March 2025.

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Credit: Tesla/X

Data recently released from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book has revealed that electric vehicles such as the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 saw an increase in their average transaction price (ATP) in March 2025.

Cox Automotive’s findings were shared in a press release

March 2025 EV ATPs

As noted by Cox, new electric vehicle prices in March were estimated to be $59,205, a 7% increase year-over-year. In February, new EV prices had an ATP of $57,015. The average transaction price for electric vehicles was 24.7% higher than the overall auto industry ATP of $47,462.

As per Cox, “Compared to the overall industry ATP ($47,462), EV ATPs in March were higher by nearly 25% as the gap between new ICE and new EV grows wider. EV incentives continued to range far above the industry average. In March, the average incentive package for an EV was 13.3% of ATP, down from the revised 14.3% in February.”

Tesla ATPs in Focus

While Tesla saw challenges in the first quarter due to its factories’ changeover to the new Model Y, the company’s ATPs last month were estimated at $54,582, a year-over-year increase of 3.5% and a month-over-month increase of 4.5%. A potential factor in this could be the rollout of the Tesla Model Y Launch Series, a fully loaded, limited-edition variant of the revamped all-electric crossover that costs just under $60,000.

This increase, Cox noted, was evident in Tesla’s two best-selling vehicles, the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover, the best-selling car globally in 2023 and 2024. “ATPs for Tesla’s two core models – Model 3 and Model Y – were higher month over month and year over year in March,” Cox wrote.

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Cox’s Other Findings

Beyond electric vehicles, Cox also estimated that new vehicle ATPs held steady month-over-month and year-over-year in March at $47,462, down slightly from the revised-lower ATP of $47,577 in February. Sales incentives in March were flat compared to February at 7% of ATP, though they are 5% higher than 2024, when incentives were equal to 6.7% of ATP. 

Estimates also suggest that new vehicle sales in March topped 1.59 million units, the best volume month in almost four years. This was likely due to consumers purchasing cars before the Trump administration’s tariffs took effect. As per Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox, all things are pointing to higher vehicle prices this summer. 

“All signs point to higher prices this summer, as existing ‘pre-tariff’ inventory is sold down to be eventually replaced with ‘tariffed’ inventory. How high prices rise for consumers is still very much to be determined, as each automaker will handle the price puzzle differently. Should the White House posture hold, our team is expecting new vehicles directly impacted by the 25% tariff to see price increases in the range of 10-15%,” Keating stated.

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