In a new Tesla ($TSLA) note addressing the Inflation Reduction Act and Tesla, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas talks about Tesla’s potential to drive battery manufacturing efficiency at a “tera-scale that investors will value.”
The note, titled Tesla and the IRA: Birth of an American Green-Shoring Powerhouse? also addresses how Tesla will benefit from the IRA, Elon Musk as a U.S. energy ambassador, and the impact of Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1573014655555047425
“We believe Tesla’s demonstrated manufacturing prowess in cutting costs per car sold in half over the last decade has not been fully appreciated by investors. In our view, Tesla stands to benefit significantly over the next decade as tech advancements and regulatory support in the form of IRA tax credits drive down COGS per unit even further,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas noted that the cost of goods sold (COGS) per unit of production is a critical indicator at Tesla suggesting that its ability to reduce cost is not limited to the battery cell/pack.
“In our view, the reduction in COGS/unit can continue falling with continual learnings, higher volume per SKU, greater efficiency in supply chain, and other factors.”
"Through 2030 we forecast $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351B of free cash flow. By contrast, we forecast GM to generate approx $35B, or 1/10th, of Tesla's FCF. We think the magnitude & volatility of cash flows will be an extremely import driver of success in this market."
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 22, 2022
Other key takeaways from the note include:
-
- Further significant opportunity for Tesla to reduce its battery costs.
- Tesla is likely to benefit from the production tax credit if there’s no change to the IRA as it’s currently written.
- Tesla may find itself as a consensus long in the institutional investor community for the first time since its 2010 IPO.
- Morgan Stanely believes that the Great U.S. Renewable Energy On-Shoring theme is equivalent to a “Cambrian explosion” in the amount of capital deployed in supporting U.S. infrastructure and avenues of expression.
- Elon Musk could become a U.S. Energy Ambassador.
“Will Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player drive a ‘narrative shift’ powerful enough to ‘on-board’ long-time skeptics in the name? Yes, Yes, we think so,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas also noted that Tesla is the easier name to own. It has “less execution risk and increasingly ‘less expensive’ than it once was.” He also forecasted $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351 billion of free cash flow through 2030.
Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission.
Your feedback is important. If you have any comments, or concerns, or see a typo, you can email me at johnna@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter at @JohnnaCrider1.
Teslarati is now on TikTok. Follow us for interactive news & more.
Elon Musk
New details emerge on The Boring Company’s Universal tunnel plans
The materials outline staffing, construction timelines, tunnel configuration, and operational details that were not previously public.
Newly released bidding documents have shed light on how Elon Musk’s Boring Company plans to connect Universal Orlando Resort’s north campus to Universal Epic Universe.
The materials outline staffing, construction timelines, tunnel configuration, and operational details that were not previously public about the planned Loop system.
The Shingle Creek Transit & Utility Community Development District voted Feb. 11 to begin contract negotiations with The Boring Company after ranking it the top bidder for the Universal Orlando transport project. Now, evaluation documents obtained by local news media reveal how the company intends to execute the project, according to Attraction Insight.
The proposal describes a twin-tunnel configuration, with one tunnel in each direction. It also noted that permitting, design, and construction could take roughly a year and a half once approvals are secured. The company indicated it could deploy multiple tunnel boring machines and install temporary support infrastructure, including muck storage pits and stormwater systems, during construction.
Bid documents list eight internal specialists assigned to the project, including tunnel engineers, structural engineers, and tunnel boring machine experts. Six subcontractors would handle fire protection, communications, soil treatment, and concrete work.
The company stated it “has the necessary internally produced tunneling equipment and personnel immediately available to complete this project for the district as quickly as permits and approvals can be obtained.”
Operationally, the system would mirror the company’s Las Vegas Loop model, using Tesla vehicles to provide point-to-point transport rather than fixed-route buses. The proposal frames the concept as “on-demand, express transportation,” with vehicles dispatched as needed and capacity adjustable in real time.
Stations could be built underground or above ground with ramp access into tunnels. The documents also referenced potential future integration of a configurable Robovan for passengers and cargo, though capacity projections for the Orlando tunnels have not yet been disclosed.
The proposal states that the Loop can integrate “easily into environmentally sensitive areas,” but it does not provide detailed mitigation plans for Central Florida’s high water table and limestone geology, which is susceptible to sinkholes. The company has stated that it intends to hire an Orlando-based geotechnical firm to evaluate soil conditions.
News
Tesla Giga Berlin dispute against IG Metall union leads to investigation
As per a report from rbb24, police seized a laptop belonging to an IG Metall member at Tesla Giga Berlin on Tuesday afternoon.
German authorities have opened an investigation into an IG Metall union representative following allegations that a confidential works council meeting at Tesla’s Gigafactory Berlin was secretly recorded. The probe follows a criminal complaint filed by Tesla management last week.
As per a report from rbb24, police seized a laptop belonging to an IG Metall member at Tesla Giga Berlin on Tuesday afternoon. Prosecutors in Frankfurt (Oder) confirmed that an investigation is underway into a possible unauthorized audio recording of an internal works council meeting.
Under German law, recording a non-public meeting without consent may constitute a criminal offense.
Tesla stated that Gigafactory Berlin employees alerted management after allegedly discovering that an external union representative, who was attending the event as a guest, had recorded the session. Plant manager André Thierig stated in a post on X that the representative was “caught in action,” prompting the company to contact police and file a criminal complaint.
The seized device is now part of the investigation, and authorities will determine whether any unlawful recording had indeed occurred.
IG Metall has denied the accusation. In comments to German media, representatives rejected Tesla’s claim and described the electric vehicle maker’s allegation as an election campaign tactic ahead of upcoming works council elections.
The election at Tesla’s Grünheide plant is scheduled for March 2–4, 2026, with about 11,000 employees being eligible to vote. Regular works council elections in Germany are held every four years between March and May.
The incident comes amid tensions between Tesla and organized labor in Germany. While works councils operate independently from unions, IG Metall has been active at the plant and has previously criticized Tesla’s labor practices. Authorities, for their part, have not yet announced whether charges will be filed, though the investigation remains ongoing.
News
Tesla rolls out xAI’s Grok to vehicles across Europe
The initial rollout includes the United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, France, Portugal, and Spain.
Tesla is rolling out Grok to vehicles in Europe. The feature will initially launch in nine European territories.
In a post on X, the official Tesla Europe, Middle East & Africa account confirmed that Grok is coming to Teslas in Europe. The initial rollout includes the United Kingdom, Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, France, Portugal, and Spain, and additional markets are expected to be added later.
Grok allows drivers to ask questions using real-time information and interact hands-free while driving. According to Tesla’s support documentation, Grok can also initiate navigation commands, enabling users to search for destinations, discover points of interest, and adjust routes without touching the touchscreen, as per the feature’s official webpage.
The system offers selectable personalities, ranging from “Storyteller” to “Unhinged,” and is activated either through the App Launcher or by pressing and holding the steering wheel’s microphone button.
Grok is currently available only on Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, and Cybertruck vehicles equipped with an AMD infotainment processor. Vehicles must be running software version 2025.26 or later, with navigation command support requiring version 2025.44.25 or newer.
Drivers must also have Premium Connectivity or a stable Wi-Fi connection to use the feature. Tesla notes that Grok does not currently replace standard voice commands for vehicle controls such as climate or media adjustments.
The company has stated that Grok interactions are processed securely by xAI and are not linked to individual drivers or vehicles. Users do not need a Grok account or subscription to enable the feature at this time as well.
New details emerge on The Boring Company’s Universal tunnel plans
Tesla Giga Berlin dispute against IG Metall union leads to investigation
