In a new Tesla ($TSLA) note addressing the Inflation Reduction Act and Tesla, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas talks about Tesla’s potential to drive battery manufacturing efficiency at a “tera-scale that investors will value.”
The note, titled Tesla and the IRA: Birth of an American Green-Shoring Powerhouse? also addresses how Tesla will benefit from the IRA, Elon Musk as a U.S. energy ambassador, and the impact of Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1573014655555047425
“We believe Tesla’s demonstrated manufacturing prowess in cutting costs per car sold in half over the last decade has not been fully appreciated by investors. In our view, Tesla stands to benefit significantly over the next decade as tech advancements and regulatory support in the form of IRA tax credits drive down COGS per unit even further,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas noted that the cost of goods sold (COGS) per unit of production is a critical indicator at Tesla suggesting that its ability to reduce cost is not limited to the battery cell/pack.
“In our view, the reduction in COGS/unit can continue falling with continual learnings, higher volume per SKU, greater efficiency in supply chain, and other factors.”
"Through 2030 we forecast $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351B of free cash flow. By contrast, we forecast GM to generate approx $35B, or 1/10th, of Tesla's FCF. We think the magnitude & volatility of cash flows will be an extremely import driver of success in this market."
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 22, 2022
Other key takeaways from the note include:
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- Further significant opportunity for Tesla to reduce its battery costs.
- Tesla is likely to benefit from the production tax credit if there’s no change to the IRA as it’s currently written.
- Tesla may find itself as a consensus long in the institutional investor community for the first time since its 2010 IPO.
- Morgan Stanely believes that the Great U.S. Renewable Energy On-Shoring theme is equivalent to a “Cambrian explosion” in the amount of capital deployed in supporting U.S. infrastructure and avenues of expression.
- Elon Musk could become a U.S. Energy Ambassador.
“Will Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player drive a ‘narrative shift’ powerful enough to ‘on-board’ long-time skeptics in the name? Yes, Yes, we think so,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas also noted that Tesla is the easier name to own. It has “less execution risk and increasingly ‘less expensive’ than it once was.” He also forecasted $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351 billion of free cash flow through 2030.
Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission.ย
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News
Three things Tesla needs to improve with Full Self-Driving v14 release
These are the three things I’d like to see Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 improve.

As Tesla plans to release Full Self-Driving version 14 this week after CEO Elon Musk detailed a short delay in its rollout, there are several things that continue to plague what are extremely well-done drives by the suite.
Tesla Full Self-Driving has truly revolutionized the way I travel, and I use it for the majority of my driving. However, it does a few things really poorly, and these issues are consistent across many drives, not just one.
Tesla Full Self-Driving impressions after three weeks of ownership
Musk has called FSD v14 “sentient” and hinted that it would demonstrate drastic improvements from v13. The current version is very good, and it commonly performs some of the more difficult driving tasks well. I have found that it does simple, yet crucial things, somewhat poorly.
These are the three things I’d like to see Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 improve.
Navigation, Routing, and Logical Departure
My biggest complaint is how poorly the navigation system chooses its route of departure. I’ve noticed this specifically from where I Supercharge. The car routinely takes the most illogical route to leave the Supercharger, a path that would require an illegal U-turn to get on the correct route.
I managed to capture this yesterday when leaving the Supercharger to go on a lengthy ride using Full Self-Driving:
You’ll see I overrode the attempt to turn right out of the lot by pushing the turn signal to turn left instead. If you go right, you’ll go around the entire convenience store and end up approaching a traffic light with a “No U-Turn” sign. The car has tried to initiate a U-turn at this light before.
If you’re attempting to get on the highway, you simply have to leave the convenience store on a different route (the one I made the vehicle go in).
It then attempted to enter the right lane when the car needed to remain in the left lane to turn left and access the highway. I manually took over and then reactivated Full Self-Driving when it was in the correct lane.
To achieve Unsupervised Full Self-Driving, such as navigating out of a parking lot and taking the logical route, while also avoiding illegal maneuvers, is incredibly crucial.
Too Much Time in the Left Lane on the Highway
It is illegal to cruise in the left lane on highways in all 50 U.S. states, although certain states enforce it more than others. Colorado, for example, has a law that makes it illegal to drive in the left lane on highways with a speed limit of 65 MPH or greater unless you are passing.
In Florida, it is generally prohibited to use the left lane unless you are passing a slower vehicle.
In Pennsylvania, where I live, cruising in the left lane is illegal on limited-access highways with two or more lanes. Left lanes are designed for passing, while right lanes are intended for cruising.
Full Self-Driving, especially on the “Hurry” drive mode, which drives most realistically, cruises in the left lane, making it in violation of these cruising laws. There are many instances when it has a drastic amount of space between cars in the right lane, and it simply chooses to stay in the left lane:
The clip above is nearly 12 minutes in length without being sped up. In real-time, it had plenty of opportunities to get over and cruise in the left lane. It did not do this until the end of the video.
Tesla should implement a “Preferred Highway Cruising Lane” option for two and three-lane highways, allowing drivers to choose the lane that FSD cruises in.
It also tends to pass vehicles in the slow lane at a speed that is only a mile an hour or two higher than that other car.
This holds up traffic in the left lane; if it is going to overtake a vehicle in the right lane, it needs to do it faster and with more assertiveness. It should not take more than 5-10 seconds to pass a car. Anything longer is disrupting the flow of highway traffic.
Parking
Full Self-Driving does a great job of getting you to your destination, but parking automatically once you’re there has been a pain point.
As I was arriving at my destination, it pulled in directly on top of the line separating two parking spots. It does this frequently when I arrive at my house as well.
Here’s what it looked like yesterday:
Parking is one of the easier tasks Full Self-Driving performs, and Autopark does extremely well when the driver manually chooses the spot. I use Autopark on an almost daily basis.
However, if I do not assist the vehicle in choosing a spot, its performance pulling into spaces is pretty lackluster.
With a lot of hype surrounding v14, Tesla has built up considerable anticipation among owners who want to see FSD perform the easy tasks well. As of now, I believe it does the harder things better than the easy things.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk teases previously unknown Tesla Optimus capability
Elon Musk revealed over the weekend that the humanoid robot should be able to utilize Tesla’s dataset for Full Self-Driving (FSD) to operate cars not manufactured by Tesla.

Elon Musk revealed a new capability that Tesla Optimus should have, and it is one that will surely surprise many people, as it falls outside the CEO’s scope of his several companies.
Tesla Optimus is likely going to be the biggest product the company ever develops, and Musk has even predicted that it could make up about 80 percent of the company’s value in the coming years.
Teasing the potential to eliminate any trivial and monotonous tasks from human life, Optimus surely has its appeal.
However, Musk revealed over the weekend that the humanoid robot should be able to utilize Tesla’s dataset for Full Self-Driving (FSD) to operate cars not manufactured by Tesla:
Probably
โ Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 5, 2025
FSD would essentially translate from operation in Tesla vehicles from a driverless perspective to Optimus, allowing FSD to basically be present in any vehicle ever made. Optimus could be similar to a personal chauffeur, as well as an assistant.
Optimus has significant hype behind it, as Tesla has been meticulously refining its capabilities. Along with Musk’s and other executives’ comments about its potential, it’s clear that there is genuine excitement internally.
This past weekend, the company continued to stoke hype behind Optimus by showing a new video of the humanoid robot learning Kung Fu and training with a teacher:
๐จ Some have wondered if this is ‘staged’ or if Optimus is teleoperated here
Elon Musk said this is completely AI https://t.co/N69uDD6OVM
โ TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 4, 2025
Tesla plans to launch its Gen 3 version of Optimus in the coming months, and although we saw a new-look robot just last month, thanks to a video from Salesforce CEO and Musk’s friend Marc Benioff, we have been told that this was not a look at the company’s new iteration.
Instead, Gen 3’s true design remains a mystery for the general public, but with the improvements between the first two iterations already displayed, we are sure the newest version will be something special.
Investor's Corner
Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.

Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the companyโs record-breaking third quarter of 2025.ย
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.
On Teslaโs vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025
During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report.ย
โOn 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,โ the firm wrote in its note.
A bright spot in Tesla Energy
Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Teslaโs full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024โs 1.8 million total, Teslaโs energy storage business remains a bright spot in the companyโs results.
โTesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,โ the firm stated.
Teslaโs strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.
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