In a new Tesla ($TSLA) note addressing the Inflation Reduction Act and Tesla, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas talks about Tesla’s potential to drive battery manufacturing efficiency at a “tera-scale that investors will value.”
The note, titled Tesla and the IRA: Birth of an American Green-Shoring Powerhouse? also addresses how Tesla will benefit from the IRA, Elon Musk as a U.S. energy ambassador, and the impact of Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1573014655555047425
“We believe Tesla’s demonstrated manufacturing prowess in cutting costs per car sold in half over the last decade has not been fully appreciated by investors. In our view, Tesla stands to benefit significantly over the next decade as tech advancements and regulatory support in the form of IRA tax credits drive down COGS per unit even further,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas noted that the cost of goods sold (COGS) per unit of production is a critical indicator at Tesla suggesting that its ability to reduce cost is not limited to the battery cell/pack.
“In our view, the reduction in COGS/unit can continue falling with continual learnings, higher volume per SKU, greater efficiency in supply chain, and other factors.”
"Through 2030 we forecast $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351B of free cash flow. By contrast, we forecast GM to generate approx $35B, or 1/10th, of Tesla's FCF. We think the magnitude & volatility of cash flows will be an extremely import driver of success in this market."
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 22, 2022
Other key takeaways from the note include:
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- Further significant opportunity for Tesla to reduce its battery costs.
- Tesla is likely to benefit from the production tax credit if there’s no change to the IRA as it’s currently written.
- Tesla may find itself as a consensus long in the institutional investor community for the first time since its 2010 IPO.
- Morgan Stanely believes that the Great U.S. Renewable Energy On-Shoring theme is equivalent to a “Cambrian explosion” in the amount of capital deployed in supporting U.S. infrastructure and avenues of expression.
- Elon Musk could become a U.S. Energy Ambassador.
“Will Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player drive a ‘narrative shift’ powerful enough to ‘on-board’ long-time skeptics in the name? Yes, Yes, we think so,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas also noted that Tesla is the easier name to own. It has “less execution risk and increasingly ‘less expensive’ than it once was.” He also forecasted $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351 billion of free cash flow through 2030.
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Tesla has officially shown that it is eyeing two new states for Robotaxi operation in the U.S., as it hopes to add the new areas to its ever-growing list of places where the suite is either active or in the testing phase.
Tesla first launched its Robotaxi suite in Austin, Texas, in late June. It expanded the suite to the San Francisco Bay Area just a month later. Since then, it has not launched any public rides in any other states, but it has gained several approvals for early testing.
In preparation for operation in new states, Tesla routinely lists job postings on its Careers website, which helps align potential employees with opportunities ahead of regulatory approvals. This is a strategy that allows Tesla to start operations immediately upon licensing for testing.
Tesla started hiring Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in Arizona and Nevada months before the company gained any sort of approvals from state governments for Robotaxi. However, those approvals eventually came in the form of testing licenses, which allow the company to perform validation ahead of its public launch.
Tesla begins validating Robotaxi in a new area, hinting at expansion
Now, Tesla has posted job listings for Vehicle Operators for Autopilot in two new states: Colorado and Illinois. The Colorado job listing is located in Aurora, a suburb of Denver. Tesla is looking for Robotaxi operators in Chicago as well.
These postings hint toward Tesla’s continuing efforts to expand Robotaxi to new places. Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk said the company would like to have Robotaxi available to at least half of the U.S. population.
It has expanded significantly since its initial launch in late June, but it is still a far way off from where Tesla would like it to be by year’s end.
So far, Tesla has job listings for Autopilot Vehicle Operators in Arizona, California, Texas, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Illinois.
Tesla’s advertising strategy has taken a drastic turn as the company’s upcoming Shareholder Meeting will feature perhaps the most crucial vote in its history: the approval of CEO Elon Musk’s new pay package.
For years, the issue of Tesla’s advertising and marketing strategy has been a major point of conversation for investors in fans. It seems to be split right down the middle, with half wanting Tesla to set aside some money for advertising. The other half, just the opposite.
Tesla has been transparent that the money it would spend on advertising, marketing, and public relations is better set aside for the development of future products.
However, it has recently adopted a different tone in advertising, pushing some commercials on social media platforms like X and Instagram.
For the first time, an ad was seen on streaming services like Paramount+, but it wasn’t promoting Tesla’s products directly. Instead, it was more of a message for shareholders to vote on Musk’s pay package, something Tesla feels is a necessity:
Well this is a first. Tesla is running paid ads on Paramount+ encouraging people to vote their $TSLA shares ahead of the annual shareholder meeting on November 6th.
“Tesla is on the precipice of its next wave of transformations growth, and we need your support; We urge you to… pic.twitter.com/FTo5eFQJRZ
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 14, 2025
“The future of Tesla is in your hands,” the ad reads at the end. It seems as if Tesla is taking whatever steps it needs to accomplish the task of getting Musk a new pay package and retaining him as its CEO.
On September 5, Tesla officially outlined its plans for a CEO Performance Award for Musk. It would require him to lift Tesla’s market capitalization to about $8.5 trillion, up from the $1.36 trillion it sits at today.
Elon Musk’s new pay plan ties trillionaire status to Tesla’s $8.5 trillion valuation
It is obvious that Tesla is really hoping to get the pay package passed and is willing to shift some of its budget to encourage shareholders to vote.
However, there are some interesting perspectives on the move, and it’s sort of strange to see Tesla not advertising its vehicles or products, but only its pay package that would get its CEO paid.
Some of those who saw the ad are questioning the strategy:
Definitely a sign of desperation for $TSLA. They wouldn’t need to beg for votes if the BOD just did their job and held Elon accountable for his actions in the past. His blatant disregard for Tesla’s brand and the actions he takes in the public eye are exactly why I voted NO.
— squawksquare (@squawksquare) October 14, 2025
Doesn’t this taste wrong to anyone else?
No ads for the business? Only for the CEOs pay package?
— Schrodinger’s Wealth (@BosCybertruck) October 14, 2025
Tesla is validating Robotaxi in a new area, and as the company has continued to gain some additional permissions to begin testing in new states, it seems its Full Self-Driving-based ride-hailing project is moving toward a larger footprint.
Two Robotaxi units with LiDAR validation equipment were spotted in Gilbert, Arizona, recently, showing that Tesla is aiming to launch its ride-hailing service in the state soon:
TESLA ROBOTAXI SPOTTED VALIDATING IN GILBERT, AZ! :0 pic.twitter.com/kqtQEBwl8Y
— Greggertruck (@greggertruck) October 11, 2025
Another unit was spotted in Tempe, Arizona:
Spotted this one and another one behind it in Tempe, AZ. I also saw a pair driving from Mesa to Tempe. Looks like they’re validating the entire east valley. I haven’t seen any in the west valley yet. pic.twitter.com/gFWTHhmBLT
— TechCat (@elviswjr) October 12, 2025
These types of validation vehicles have been spotted in several areas ahead of their launch as a public ride-hailing service for passengers. Tesla first launched Robotaxi in Austin, Texas, back in late June, and since then, it has expanded to the Bay Area of California.
However, Tesla has continued to attempt to expand Robotaxi to other areas as well, including Nevada and Arizona. It has also been working toward approvals in other states based on job postings, as Tesla is hiring for Autopilot Vehicle Operators in New York and Florida, as well.
The expansion of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service has been an effort that Tesla has been spending a lot of time on over the past few months. CEO Elon Musk said the expansion aims to bring Robotaxi to at least half of the U.S. population by the end of the year, but there is still plenty of work to be done.
Tesla Robotaxi heads to a new major Texas city for the first time
Tesla did make its Robotaxi app public in recent months, allowing more members of the public to experience the suite for themselves, as long as they could get to Austin or the Bay Area.
In the coming months, it seems more apparent that Tesla will take a broader focus on expanding Robotaxi, especially with the fact that these validation vehicles are being spotted throughout different parts of the United States.
Tesla eyes two new states for Robotaxi
Tesla launched an ad for Elon Musk’s pay package on Paramount+
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