In a new Tesla ($TSLA) note addressing the Inflation Reduction Act and Tesla, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas talks about Tesla’s potential to drive battery manufacturing efficiency at a “tera-scale that investors will value.”
The note, titled Tesla and the IRA: Birth of an American Green-Shoring Powerhouse? also addresses how Tesla will benefit from the IRA, Elon Musk as a U.S. energy ambassador, and the impact of Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1573014655555047425
“We believe Tesla’s demonstrated manufacturing prowess in cutting costs per car sold in half over the last decade has not been fully appreciated by investors. In our view, Tesla stands to benefit significantly over the next decade as tech advancements and regulatory support in the form of IRA tax credits drive down COGS per unit even further,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas noted that the cost of goods sold (COGS) per unit of production is a critical indicator at Tesla suggesting that its ability to reduce cost is not limited to the battery cell/pack.
“In our view, the reduction in COGS/unit can continue falling with continual learnings, higher volume per SKU, greater efficiency in supply chain, and other factors.”
"Through 2030 we forecast $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351B of free cash flow. By contrast, we forecast GM to generate approx $35B, or 1/10th, of Tesla's FCF. We think the magnitude & volatility of cash flows will be an extremely import driver of success in this market."
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 22, 2022
Other key takeaways from the note include:
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- Further significant opportunity for Tesla to reduce its battery costs.
- Tesla is likely to benefit from the production tax credit if there’s no change to the IRA as it’s currently written.
- Tesla may find itself as a consensus long in the institutional investor community for the first time since its 2010 IPO.
- Morgan Stanely believes that the Great U.S. Renewable Energy On-Shoring theme is equivalent to a “Cambrian explosion” in the amount of capital deployed in supporting U.S. infrastructure and avenues of expression.
- Elon Musk could become a U.S. Energy Ambassador.
“Will Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player drive a ‘narrative shift’ powerful enough to ‘on-board’ long-time skeptics in the name? Yes, Yes, we think so,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas also noted that Tesla is the easier name to own. It has “less execution risk and increasingly ‘less expensive’ than it once was.” He also forecasted $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351 billion of free cash flow through 2030.
Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission.
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Elon Musk confirms Tesla Semi will enter high-volume production this year
Musk shared his update in a post on social media platform X.
Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla will begin high-volume production of the Class 8 all-electric Semi this year.
He shared his update in a post on social media platform X.
Musk confirms Tesla Semi production ramp
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reaffirmed on X that the Semi is finally moving into volume production, posting on Sunday that “Tesla Semi starts high volume production this year.”
The update comes as Tesla refreshed its Semi lineup on its official website, an apparent hint that the program is transitioning from limited pilots into wider commercial deployment. As per Tesla’s official website, two variants of the Semi will be offered to consumers: Standard and Long Range.
The Standard trim offers up to 325 miles of range with an energy consumption rating of 1.7 kWh per mile and a gross combination weight rating of 82,000 pounds. The Long Range version pushes driving range to 500 miles, with Tesla noting a higher curb weight of about 23,000 pounds, likely due to a larger battery pack.
Both trims support fast charging, with Tesla stating that the Semi can recover up to 60% of its range in 30 minutes using compatible charging infrastructure.
Broader Tesla Semi rollout
Tesla has already delivered production Semi units to select partners, including snack and beverage giant PepsiCo as well as logistics behemoth DHL, which confirmed that its truck operates daily in California, traveling roughly 100 miles per day and requiring charging just about once a week.
The company has also partnered with Uber Freight, as noted in a Benzinga report, with Tesla executives previously describing the agreement as a way for fleet operators to experience the Semi’s lower operating and maintenance costs firsthand.
With Musk now publicly committing to high-volume production, the Semi appears poised to move beyond pilot programs and into scaled commercial use, an important step in Tesla’s wider push to electrify heavy-duty and long-range trucking.
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Tesla tops France reliability rankings, beating Toyota for the first time
The milestone was celebrated by CEO Elon Musk on social media platform X.
Tesla has overtaken Toyota to become France’s most reliable car brand in 2025, as per a new nationwide reliability ranking published by Auto Plus magazine.
The milestone was celebrated by CEO Elon Musk on social media platform X.
Tesla tops reliability ranking in France
Tesla ranked first overall in Auto Plus’ 2025 reliability study, surpassing long-time benchmark Toyota across all powertrain types, including gasoline, hybrid, and electric vehicles.
The ranking, published on February 6, 2026, evaluated early problems reported in 2025 on vehicles registered in France since January 1, 2018, with fewer than 150,000 kilometers on the odometer, as noted by a Numerama report. This marked Tesla’s first appearance in the magazine’s reliability rankings, which was enabled by the company’s growing vehicle population in the French market.
According to the publication, Tesla vehicles showed no recurring major defects beyond isolated suspension arm issues, which are covered under the company’s four-year or 80,000-kilometer warranty. Other reported issues were described as minor, including occasional screen glitches and door handle concerns.
Why this ranking differs from earlier criticism
Tesla’s top placement contrasts sharply with past assessments from the German Automobile Club (ADAC), which previously ranked the Model 3 and Model Y low in its technical inspection reports. Auto Plus noted that those inspections were focused heavily on factors such as brake disc wear, which are not necessarily the best benchmarks for overall vehicle reliability.
By focusing instead on real-world reliability data and early ownership issues, Auto Plus’ methodology offered a broader picture of how vehicles perform over time rather than how individual components age under inspection standards. The publication emphasized that electric vehicles, with far fewer moving parts than combustion-engine cars, are not inherently less reliable.
While the ranking supports the case that electric vehicles can match or exceed the reliability of traditional brands, the magazine acknowledged limitations in its analysis. Still, Tesla’s debut at the top of the list underscores how perceptions of EV durability are shifting as more long-term data becomes available in major automotive markets like France.
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Tesla’s Sweden standoff draws UAW support as unions widen pressure campaign
In a post shared on social media, the United Auto Workers stated that it stands with IF Metall workers who are striking against Tesla Sweden.
The United Auto Workers (UAW) has publicly expressed solidarity with Swedish union IF Metall as its strike against Tesla continues, adding international attention to the extended labor dispute in the European country.
UAW supports IF Metall’s strike
In a post shared on social media, the United Auto Workers stated that it stands with IF Metall workers who are striking against Tesla Sweden. UAW Region 8 Director Tim Smith stated that the union fully supports IF Metall’s efforts to secure a collective bargaining agreement with the automaker.
“UAW stands with IF Metall workers on strike against Tesla, fighting for a collective bargaining agreement. UAW Region 8 Director Tim Smith pledged the UAW’s full support and solidarity,” the UAW International Union stated in its post.
IF Metall launched its strike against Tesla Sweden in late 2023 over the electric car maker’s refusal to sign a collective agreement. The action has since been supported by other unions through sympathy strikes affecting ports, logistics, and service operations.
Tesla Sweden has maintained that it complies with Swedish labor laws and offers competitive pay and benefits, though the company has not publicly commented on the UAW’s latest show of support.
Tesla owners get union attention
Pro-union groups in Sweden have recently expanded their outreach beyond Tesla’s facilities and workforce. Activists have begun distributing informational leaflets against the EV maker directly on Tesla vehicles parked across Stockholm, as per a report from Swedish outlet Dagens Arbete.
The yellow slips, designed to resemble parking notices, urge regular Tesla owners to pressure the company into signing a collective agreement. Organizers involved in the effort have argued that the leaflets are intended to simply inform consumers rather than single out individual owners. When owners are present, however, activists stated that they explain the dispute verbally.
Tesla has not issued a public response regarding the leaflet distribution campaign as of writing.
Elon Musk confirms Tesla Semi will enter high-volume production this year
Tesla tops France reliability rankings, beating Toyota for the first time
