In a new Tesla ($TSLA) note addressing the Inflation Reduction Act and Tesla, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas talks about Tesla’s potential to drive battery manufacturing efficiency at a “tera-scale that investors will value.”
The note, titled Tesla and the IRA: Birth of an American Green-Shoring Powerhouse? also addresses how Tesla will benefit from the IRA, Elon Musk as a U.S. energy ambassador, and the impact of Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player
https://twitter.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1573014655555047425
“We believe Tesla’s demonstrated manufacturing prowess in cutting costs per car sold in half over the last decade has not been fully appreciated by investors. In our view, Tesla stands to benefit significantly over the next decade as tech advancements and regulatory support in the form of IRA tax credits drive down COGS per unit even further,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas noted that the cost of goods sold (COGS) per unit of production is a critical indicator at Tesla suggesting that its ability to reduce cost is not limited to the battery cell/pack.
“In our view, the reduction in COGS/unit can continue falling with continual learnings, higher volume per SKU, greater efficiency in supply chain, and other factors.”
"Through 2030 we forecast $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351B of free cash flow. By contrast, we forecast GM to generate approx $35B, or 1/10th, of Tesla's FCF. We think the magnitude & volatility of cash flows will be an extremely import driver of success in this market."
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) September 22, 2022
Other key takeaways from the note include:
-
- Further significant opportunity for Tesla to reduce its battery costs.
- Tesla is likely to benefit from the production tax credit if there’s no change to the IRA as it’s currently written.
- Tesla may find itself as a consensus long in the institutional investor community for the first time since its 2010 IPO.
- Morgan Stanely believes that the Great U.S. Renewable Energy On-Shoring theme is equivalent to a “Cambrian explosion” in the amount of capital deployed in supporting U.S. infrastructure and avenues of expression.
- Elon Musk could become a U.S. Energy Ambassador.
“Will Tesla’s emergence as a U.S. infrastructure player drive a ‘narrative shift’ powerful enough to ‘on-board’ long-time skeptics in the name? Yes, Yes, we think so,” Jonas wrote.
Jonas also noted that Tesla is the easier name to own. It has “less execution risk and increasingly ‘less expensive’ than it once was.” He also forecasted $TSLA to generate an aggregate of $351 billion of free cash flow through 2030.
Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission.
Your feedback is important. If you have any comments, or concerns, or see a typo, you can email me at johnna@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter at @JohnnaCrider1.
Teslarati is now on TikTok. Follow us for interactive news & more.
Elon Musk
Tesla to launch in India in July with vehicles already arriving: report
Tesla is finally making serious moves toward launching in India, with showrooms opening in July, a report claims.

Tesla is finally bringing its business to India, a new report indicates, as the company is already shipping vehicles from China to the market where it has attempted to launch business for several years.
We first heard of Tesla planning to launch in India about a decade ago when CEO Elon Musk and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in California at the Fremont Factory in 2015.
Over the years, the two have hinted that the automaker would eventually land in India, but issues with import duties have delayed Tesla’s attempts.
Now, there seems to be some serious movement in Tesla’s plans, as it has reportedly shipped the first batch of vehicles from China to India, according to Bloomberg. The outlet says these are Model Y Rear-Wheel-Drive configurations.
Tesla is also planning for other parts of the launch, like preparing for Supercharging, aftermarket parts and merchandise purchasing for vehicle owners and fans, and spare parts from various regions, including the United States, China, and the Netherlands.
The company and the Indian government must have come to some sort of agreement that was catalyzed by Musk and Modi’s meeting in February in the U.S.
It is a long time coming, and it now gives Tesla access to an incredibly vast market in India, where a very small percentage of 2024’s total automotive sales were comprised of electric vehicles.
Another interesting tidbit about the launch is that the vehicles will be coming from Gigafactory Shanghai and not Gigafactory Berlin as previously thought. Reports from other publications, like Reuters, indicated the German production facility was building vehicles for India early last year.
India has a very strict policy that favors domestic manufacturing, which is why the import duties were so high for foreign automakers looking to bring their product into the market. These duties were reduced from 110 percent to just 15 percent, as long as companies aim to invest in India and meet certain investment and sales targets.
News
SpaceX and Elon Musk share insights on Starship Ship 36’s RUD
Starship Ship 36 experienced a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly during a static fire attempt.

Elon Musk and SpaceX provided an explanation for the Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly (RUD) of Starship Ship 36 on Wednesday. As per Musk, preliminary data suggests that a nitrogen composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) in the vehicle’s payload bay failed below its proof pressure.
On Wednesday evening, Ship 36 experienced a RUD during a static fire attempt. Videos of the incident that were shared online showed Starship Ship 36 exploding into a massive fireball at its launchpad in Starbase, Texas. Images taken in the aftermath of the explosion showed significant damage to the plumbing in the area. The site’s pad structure was also destroyed.
Elon Musk shared some information immediately after the incident. In a response to a post from space enthusiast @Erdayastronaut, Musk stated that “Preliminary data suggests that a nitrogen COPV in the payload bay failed below its proof pressure.”
Musk also noted that, “If further investigation confirms that this is what happened, it is the first time ever for this design.”
SpaceX provided more insight into the incident in a post on its official website.
“After completing a single-engine static fire earlier this week, the vehicle was in the process of loading cryogenic propellant for a six-engine static fire when a sudden energetic event resulted in the complete loss of Starship and damage to the immediate area surrounding the stand.
“The explosion ignited several fires at the test site, which remains clear of personnel and will be assessed once it has been determined to be safe to approach. Individuals should not attempt to approach the area while safing operations continue,” SpaceX wrote in its post.
SpaceX highlighted that despite Starship Ship 36’s RUD, the incident will not result in any hazards to the surrounding communities in the Rio Grande Valley. And in a post on X, SpaceX also confirmed that everyone in the Starship team was safe and accounted for after Ship 36’s explosion.
While Ship 36’s RUD is a speed bump for the Starship program, SpaceX is a company that is known to grow stronger with every adversity. Thus, it would not be surprising if SpaceX implemented numerous improvements to Starship after this incident–improvements that would make the vehicle more reliable and safer than before.
News
Tesla has started rolling out initial round of Robotaxi invites
Tesla is putting safety above all in its initial Robotaxi rollout.

Tesla has started rolling out an initial round of invites for its upcoming Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.
Screenshots shared by several Tesla community members who received the invites provided a quick overview of the autonomous ride-hailing service.
As noted in a techAU report, the initial round of Robotaxi service invites has gone to longtime Tesla owners and active members of the EV community. These include owners such as @SawyerMerritt, @BLKMDL3, @WholeMarsBlog, @ItsKimJava, and @HerbertOng, all of whom shared screenshots of the invitation that Tesla has sent about the upcoming service.
You’re Invited to Early Access of Tesla Robotaxi!
The Future is Now! You’re invited to Early Access of Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin, TX!
As an Early Access rider, you can be among the first to use our new Robotaxi App and experience an autonomous ride within our geofenced area in Austin. Through this exclusive preview, you’ll have the opportunity to provide valuable feedback on our Robotaxi service.
Based on Tesla’s message, it appears that participation in the service would be strictly invite-only for now. Participants must also download Tesla’s dedicated Robotaxi App to hail a ride. Rides can also be requested and initiated to and from any location within a geofenced area of Austin.
The robotaxi service will be available from 6:00 AM to 12:00 AM, seven days a week, though these hours may change depending on factors such as inclement weather. Interestingly enough, Tesla is inviting the first participants of the Robotaxi program to share photos and videos of their experience with the service.
While the vehicles themselves are autonomous and would operate without human input, the Robotaxis would still be accompanied by a Tesla staff member to monitor the vehicle. This strategy suggests that Tesla is really putting safety above all in its initial Robotaxi rollout.
-
News2 weeks ago
I took a Tesla Cybertruck weekend Demo Drive – Here’s what I learned
-
Elon Musk2 weeks ago
Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge
-
News1 week ago
First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX
-
Elon Musk2 weeks ago
X account with 184 followers inadvertently saves US space program amid Musk-Trump row
-
Elon Musk2 weeks ago
SpaceX to decommission Dragon spacecraft in response to Pres. Trump war of words with Elon Musk
-
News2 weeks ago
Tesla adds useful Model 3/Y feature home chargers will love
-
News2 weeks ago
Tesla announces massive new achievement with 8 million cars produced
-
Elon Musk1 week ago
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reveals new details about Robotaxi rollout