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U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated
EV adoption in the U.S. happening much faster than anticipated, according to an observation of research by Recurrent Auto which is focused on providing transparency and confidence in pre-owned EV transactions. The research directly contradicts and challenges a statement by Jack Hollis, the executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor North America.
According to Hollis, consumer demand isn’t sufficient enough for the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles to develop as fast as everyone would like. He added that battery electric vehicles cost too much and that the infrastructure isn’t ready for recharging the batteries away from home.
“I don’t think the market is ready. I don’t think the infrastructure is ready. And even if you were ready to purchase one, and if you could afford it … they’re still too high,” Hollis said.
Recurrent Auto: EV adoption is happening faster than expected
In an interview with Teslarati, Recurrent CEO, Scott Case shared an observation of a study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) which has released a market projection for EV adoption annually since 2018.
Scott told me that Recurrent noticed that BCG repeated the same analysis four times since 2018 and has gotten it wrong each time.
“What we’ve seen every time they’ve done this is that they’ve just missed their forecast and gotten too low every single time.”
He said what was really interesting was that they were seeing BCG’s forecast and noticed that despite having all of the data and models, they’ve been “systematically under forecasting how fast the EV adoption is going to happen.”
The graph above shows how the EV sales projection for 2030 by BCG changed each time it released a report. According to BCG, EV sales projections in the U.S. for 2030 continued to grow to:
- 21% in the 2018 report
- 26% in the 2020 report
- 42% in the 2021 report
- 53% in the 2022 report
What Scott and the team at Recurrent found strange was that in the course of four years, the U.S. EV sales projections for 2030 more than doubled growing from an estimated 21% to 53%.
Scott pointed out that BCG isn’t the only company that has consistently missed how quickly the auto market is transitioning.
“The market adoption is just happening faster than any moment in the past. This is not about when we get to complete it, or what the numbers have been already. It’s what the best industry experts are forecasting about how fast this is going to happen.”
“We still have eight years between now and 2030. How many more times is this going to get forecasted? Eventually, they will get it right because we’ll be in 2030 and we’ll know exactly how many cars were sold that are EVs versus combustion engines. But there’s clearly only one direction that this adoption forecast is going.”
3 Major Factors
Scott went over the three major factors BCG uses in its model.
“First, it’s what are the projections for battery prices? This is a huge component of the cost of EVs. Second, is what the vehicle selection looks like and how many automakers are adopting different models. And the third is government policy changes. When you think about those three factors and over the course of the 2018-2022 models, you can sort of understand what’s been changing.”
Scott added that there was a 97% cost reduction in lithium-ion battery prices over the past three decades up to 2018.
“Since 2018, the decrease in cost flattened out, and even over the last year, it increased somewhat because of the supply chain difficulties and global issues. That’s not what was going on in this model. It’s not the battery price changes that are causing this forecast.”
“I think what you’re seeing over the course of this four-year period is the second factor. It’s vehicle selection and it translates into how many automakers are adopting and adding vehicles to their fleet. That’s a function of how automakers understand what consumers want to buy. I would say that this is a true reflection of market demand and not any government policy whether it’s a ban or a tax credit.”
Scott pointed out that next year, the Tesla Model Y will be the global best-selling vehicle without any help from any tax credit.
“You know what car it’s knocking off? It’s the Toyota Camry.”
One thing that BCG’s 2022 forecast did not include was the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act which was signed just last month. Another thing not reflected in the 2022 forecast was California’s proposed ban on the sale of gasoline vehicles in 2034.
“California just passed the total ban on new ICE sales in 2035. Washington State where I live has–it’s nonbinding but it’s a 2030 cut-off. I’m not sure either of those is actually going to be needed because I think that the market going to take care of the transition well before those sales projections happen.”
“The most recent run of the BCG estimate was in the spring. They ran the model in the spring and published it in June. At that point, the Inflation Reduction Act was dead. Everyone thought the EV tax credit was dead and done. That doesn’t even reflect the impact of that. I would expect the next time that this model gets to run in 2023, you’ve got the impact of the EV tax credit which is a ten-year run, and the California gas car ban for 2035.”
He also said the bans will probably not be needed due to how fast the market is transitioning to EVs before they take effect. The forecast will most likely be even higher once they account for tax credits and the changing government policies.
“There’s room to grow here.”
Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission.
Your feedback is important. If you have any comments, concerns, or see a typo, you can email me at johnna@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @JohnnaCrider1
News
Tesla reveals some crazy Supercharging (and Diner) stats from Q3
In an update posted by Tesla’s Charging account on X, it revealed several interesting tidbits about Supercharger growth.

Tesla has revealed some pretty crazy Supercharging statistics from the third quarter, and there was also a very interesting tidbit regarding the Diner it opened in Los Angeles, as well.
In an update posted by Tesla’s Charging account on X, it revealed several interesting tidbits about Supercharger growth, as well as usage and environmental offset, all occurring in the third quarter:
- 4,000 new Supercharger stalls opened, up 18% year-over-year
- 1.8 TWh of energy delivered to vehicles, up 29% year-over-year
- 842 million liters of gasoline saved, equivalent to 2 billion kilograms of CO2 offset
- 54 million quarterly charging sessions, up 31% year-over-year
The most useful and impressive statistics here are the 4,000 new Supercharger stalls opened in the third quarter, and the environmental impact of gasoline saved. More chargers are crucial to keep up with the increase of EVs on the road, even non-Teslas, as many OEMs have access to the company’s network.
Additionally, the environmental impact of using fewer gallons of gasoline for passenger transportation reduces our reliance on fossil fuels. This is still something that Tesla strives for to this day, as Elon Musk detailed in the Master Plan.
On a lighter note, Tesla also detailed the number of Tesla Burgers it sold at its Supercharger Diner in Los Angeles in Q3. It’s a pretty impressive number:
- 50,000 Tesla Burgers sold, up 100% tastiness
Tesla’s Supercharger Diner first opened in late July, so it has been in operation for a little over two months so far.
Tesla Supercharger Diner officially opens: menu, prices, features, and more
In the roughly 70 days the Diner has been in operation, Tesla has managed to sell about 715 burgers each day. This is incredibly impressive considering the company’s focus on localized, sustainably sourced ingredients and how it stacks up against a fast food franchise like McDonald’s.
The average McDonald’s franchise sells approximately 14,000 burgers per month, Grok says. Tesla would have outpaced that by a considerable margin if its statistics are accurate. It’s pretty impressive.
🚨 4,000 new Supercharger Stalls opened in Q3, with 54 million charging sessions occuring, up 31% year-over-year
Oh, and the Tesla Diner sold 50,000 hamburgers https://t.co/0eRLgDKkXV pic.twitter.com/1PfmEZ27Uy
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 1, 2025
Tesla’s Supercharger presence is felt in many countries across the world, with over 70,000 stalls available. While many EV owners charge at home, the expansion of the Supercharger Network is a necessary thing to have for commuters, road trips, and longer travel.
Tesla has done a great job of being inclusive to other EV makers as well.
Elon Musk
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
Here are five reasons Tesla might be in better shape without the tax credit being available.

The $7,500 EV tax credit has officially expired, as it came to its closure at midnight on September 30. Many are wondering what will happen to the EV makers in the United States that had a huge competitive advantage over their competitors, a $7,500 discount that could be applied at the point of sale.
Tesla stands to thrive from the lack of tax credit, and although it is hard to believe, brighter days could be ahead for the company, starting with Q4, which began today.
Here are five reasons Tesla might be in better shape without the tax credit being available:
No Tax Credit Means Price Cuts
Tesla has to adjust its pricing strategy now that the $7,500 tax credit is gone, and when it lost the previous tax credit after reaching its cap in 2019, it used a more affordable model to surge sales. At the time, that more affordable model was the Model 3.
Tesla boosted deliveries by over 50 percent that year without any tax credit by simply offering a cheaper model. The credit, in a way, distorts the market, and companies, while attempting to innovate, are able to offer the discount with the help of the government.
Tesla price cuts push EV market toward affordability with broader influence
Companies will now have to weigh what they can discount their vehicles by to keep profits reasonable, but also stoke demand.
Ultimately, Tesla has the ability to use manufacturing and technological efficiencies to increase affordability. It has more control to fluctuate pricing, and price cuts could be on the way.
The Playing Field Becomes Fairer
Companies like Ford and General Motors have also reaped the benefits of the tax credit, but their situation is much different than Tesla’s.
Ford and GM are not profitable on their EV projects, so the EV tax credit has been relied upon to mask high production costs and dealer markups, which have widely impacted their demand. Ford is among the more popular brands that have dipped their toes into the EV market, but they have been forced to adjust their strategy on several occasions due to a lack of profits.
Tesla’s vehicles have been profitable for some time, and the company has been able to make money from its offerings faster. Cybertruck was profitable after just one year of production.
Tesla Cybertruck achieves positive gross margin for first time
Removing subsidies will expose the financial weaknesses of those domestic competitors, and we will likely see those companies scale back their EV efforts in the coming months and years. This will help Tesla more than having access to the tax credit would, which is something CEO Elon Musk has said for years:
First of all, Tesla hasn’t had that consumer tax credit for years & we didn’t ask for this one – GM & Ford did
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 6, 2022
In my view, we should end all government subsidies, including those for EVs, oil and gas
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 14, 2024
Tesla’s Maturity Shows and Investor Confidence Will Boost
Tesla was once dismissed as a subsidy-dependent startup, but that narrative truly died years ago, as it continued to perform well against competitors even after losing the tax credit.
Musk has said himself that the cancellation of these subsidies “will only help Tesla,” as it will highlight the company’s ability to be self-sufficient.
Elon Musk reiterates call for all subsidies on all industries to be removed
Using things like manufacturing efficiencies and vertical integration, Tesla has been less dependent than others on help to build its cars. If anything, investors will likely see the next few months as a make-or-break period for companies building EVs.
Subsidies Sometimes Can Inhibit True Innovation
Some companies can tend to become complacent when government subsidies are offered on their products. Instead of making things better and trying to find new ways to make cars more affordable, some can lean on the help they’re getting.
After subsidies ended for Tesla in 2019, the company achieved two major breakthroughs: the Cybertruck and its energy storage projects scaled to gigawatt-hours. The argument is not that Tesla becomes complacent with the tax credits, but the company is going to feel more pressure to fight for innovation now that its back is up against the wall.
It already offers a better product from a tech standpoint, so affordability could truly be the next major change we see.
Affordable Models Will Be Even More Sought After
Tesla will launch its affordable models this quarter, and with no more tax credit to lean on, these new cars will be what many consumers go for.
If Tesla can launch a model that is close to $30,000 without a tax credit, the company stands to regain a significant portion of its market share from competitors that have eroded it over the past few years. This will undercut the vast majority of electric cars that are currently offered.
- 2025 Nissan Leaf S Trim – $28,140
- 2025 Fiat 500e Base Trim – $32,500
- 2025 Chevrolet Equinox EV – $33,600
Those are the three most affordable EVs available in the U.S. right now, and those prices are without the EV tax credit. If Tesla can get close to $30,000, it will truly make a mark and there might not be all that much of a change in its yearly delivery figures.
News
Tesla makes first move to counter loss of $7500 EV tax credit
Essentially, Tesla is reducing the price of a vehicle for those who choose to lease the vehicle by $6,500.

Tesla has made its first move to counter the loss of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit by offering a $6,500 lease credit, which it is offering internally.
Essentially, Tesla is reducing the price of a vehicle for those who choose to lease the vehicle by $6,500, which is a bit of a double-edged sword. However, it appears the company had this strategy ready to fire with the expiration of the EV tax credit, which occurred last night.
Tesla makes a big change to reflect new IRS EV tax credit rules
Tesla is offering the lease credit automatically, it says on its website, as the monthly payment amount already reflects the $6,500 discount. The company said in its terms:
“Monthly lease payment already includes the $6,500 Tesla lease credit, which is subject to change or end at any time. Order does not guarantee eligibility.”
The lease credit offer mostly offsets the loss of the tax credit, although, from a financial standpoint, it seems Tesla will take a bit of a hit in its profit margins. It will be interesting to see how long the company maintains the lease incentive because of its pressure on profits.
Lease pricing for the Model 3 and Model Y was also adjusted by Tesla after the expiration of the tax credit at midnight. The company increased these prices by up to 11 percent, as the Model Y’s payment range increased from $479 to $529 to between $529 and $599.
NEWS: Tesla has increased lease pricing for the Model Y and Model 3 in the U.S. by up to 11%, but Tesla has also introduced a $6,500 lease credit to help offset the loss of the EV credit.
“Monthly lease payment already includes the $6,500 Tesla lease credit, which is subject to… pic.twitter.com/NyHV1VBH3x
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 1, 2025
Model 3 prices came up from between $349 and $699 to $429 and $759.
These are with default options, including $3,000 down, a 36-month lease period, and 10,000 miles per year.
How Tesla’s sales will respond to the removal of the tax credit is one of the more discussed topics in the community over the past few months.
EV tax credit rule adjustment provides short-term win, but long-term warning
It was relatively evident that the Trump Administration planned to get rid of any subsidies for electric vehicles, something that Tesla CEO Elon Musk supported.
However, the true impact likely will not be seen until Q1 2026, as the credit will still be applied to any order placed before September 30. Leases do not apply to this condition, as deliveries had to be completed by yesterday to apply. Deliveries made after September 30 must be financed or paid for in cash.
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