News
U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated
EV adoption in the U.S. happening much faster than anticipated, according to an observation of research by Recurrent Auto which is focused on providing transparency and confidence in pre-owned EV transactions. The research directly contradicts and challenges a statement by Jack Hollis, the executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor North America.
According to Hollis, consumer demand isn’t sufficient enough for the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles to develop as fast as everyone would like. He added that battery electric vehicles cost too much and that the infrastructure isn’t ready for recharging the batteries away from home.
“I don’t think the market is ready. I don’t think the infrastructure is ready. And even if you were ready to purchase one, and if you could afford it … they’re still too high,” Hollis said.
Recurrent Auto: EV adoption is happening faster than expected
In an interview with Teslarati, Recurrent CEO, Scott Case shared an observation of a study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) which has released a market projection for EV adoption annually since 2018.
Scott told me that Recurrent noticed that BCG repeated the same analysis four times since 2018 and has gotten it wrong each time.
“What we’ve seen every time they’ve done this is that they’ve just missed their forecast and gotten too low every single time.”
He said what was really interesting was that they were seeing BCG’s forecast and noticed that despite having all of the data and models, they’ve been “systematically under forecasting how fast the EV adoption is going to happen.”
The graph above shows how the EV sales projection for 2030 by BCG changed each time it released a report. According to BCG, EV sales projections in the U.S. for 2030 continued to grow to:
- 21% in the 2018 report
- 26% in the 2020 report
- 42% in the 2021 report
- 53% in the 2022 report
What Scott and the team at Recurrent found strange was that in the course of four years, the U.S. EV sales projections for 2030 more than doubled growing from an estimated 21% to 53%.
Scott pointed out that BCG isn’t the only company that has consistently missed how quickly the auto market is transitioning.
“The market adoption is just happening faster than any moment in the past. This is not about when we get to complete it, or what the numbers have been already. It’s what the best industry experts are forecasting about how fast this is going to happen.”
“We still have eight years between now and 2030. How many more times is this going to get forecasted? Eventually, they will get it right because we’ll be in 2030 and we’ll know exactly how many cars were sold that are EVs versus combustion engines. But there’s clearly only one direction that this adoption forecast is going.”
3 Major Factors
Scott went over the three major factors BCG uses in its model.
“First, it’s what are the projections for battery prices? This is a huge component of the cost of EVs. Second, is what the vehicle selection looks like and how many automakers are adopting different models. And the third is government policy changes. When you think about those three factors and over the course of the 2018-2022 models, you can sort of understand what’s been changing.”
Scott added that there was a 97% cost reduction in lithium-ion battery prices over the past three decades up to 2018.
“Since 2018, the decrease in cost flattened out, and even over the last year, it increased somewhat because of the supply chain difficulties and global issues. That’s not what was going on in this model. It’s not the battery price changes that are causing this forecast.”
“I think what you’re seeing over the course of this four-year period is the second factor. It’s vehicle selection and it translates into how many automakers are adopting and adding vehicles to their fleet. That’s a function of how automakers understand what consumers want to buy. I would say that this is a true reflection of market demand and not any government policy whether it’s a ban or a tax credit.”
Scott pointed out that next year, the Tesla Model Y will be the global best-selling vehicle without any help from any tax credit.
“You know what car it’s knocking off? It’s the Toyota Camry.”
One thing that BCG’s 2022 forecast did not include was the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act which was signed just last month. Another thing not reflected in the 2022 forecast was California’s proposed ban on the sale of gasoline vehicles in 2034.
“California just passed the total ban on new ICE sales in 2035. Washington State where I live has–it’s nonbinding but it’s a 2030 cut-off. I’m not sure either of those is actually going to be needed because I think that the market going to take care of the transition well before those sales projections happen.”
“The most recent run of the BCG estimate was in the spring. They ran the model in the spring and published it in June. At that point, the Inflation Reduction Act was dead. Everyone thought the EV tax credit was dead and done. That doesn’t even reflect the impact of that. I would expect the next time that this model gets to run in 2023, you’ve got the impact of the EV tax credit which is a ten-year run, and the California gas car ban for 2035.”
He also said the bans will probably not be needed due to how fast the market is transitioning to EVs before they take effect. The forecast will most likely be even higher once they account for tax credits and the changing government policies.
“There’s room to grow here.”
Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission.
Your feedback is important. If you have any comments, concerns, or see a typo, you can email me at johnna@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @JohnnaCrider1
Tesla teased its entrance into a new market with a confusing and what appeared to be cryptic message on the social media platform X.
The company has been teasing its entrance into several markets, including Africa, which would be a first, and South America, where it only operates in Chile.
In September, Tesla started creating active job postings for the Colombian market, hinting it would expand its presence in South America and launch in a new country for the first time in two years.
The jobs were related to various roles, including Associate Sales Manager, Advisors in Sales and Delivery, and Service Technicians. These are all roles that would indicate Tesla is planning to launch a wide-scale effort to sell, manage, and repair vehicles in the market.
Last night, Tesla posted its latest hint, a cryptic video that seems to show the outline of Colombia, teasing its closer than ever to market entry:
— Tesla North America (@tesla_na) November 12, 2025
This would be the next expansion into a continent where it does not have much of a presence for Tesla. Currently, there are only two Supercharger locations on the entire continent, and they’re both in Chile.
Tesla will obviously need to expand upon this crucial part of the ownership experience to enable a more confident consumer base in South America as a whole. However, it is not impossible, as many other EV charging infrastructures are available, and home charging is always a suitable option for those who have access to it.
Surprisingly, Tesla seems to be more concerned about these middle-market countries as opposed to the larger markets in South America, but that could be by design.
If Tesla were to launch in Brazil initially, it may not be able to handle the uptick in demand, and infrastructure expansion could be more difficult. Brazil may be on its list in the upcoming years, but not as of right now.
@teslarati 🚨🚨 Tesla Full Self-Driving and Yap is the best driving experience #tesla #fsd #yapping ♬ I Run – HAVEN.
News
Tesla expands crucial Supercharging feature for easier access
It is a useful tool, especially during hours of congestion. However, it has not been super effective for those who drive non-Tesla EVs, as other OEMs use UI platforms like Google’s Android Auto or Apple’s iOS.
Tesla has expanded a crucial Supercharging feature that helps owners identify stall availability at nearby locations.
Tesla said on Tuesday night that its “Live Availability” feature, which shows EV owners how many stalls are available at a Supercharger station, to Google Maps, a third-party app:
Live availability of Superchargers now in Google Maps pic.twitter.com/DJvS83wVxm
— Tesla Charging (@TeslaCharging) November 11, 2025
Already offering it in its own vehicles, the Live Availability feature that Teslas have is a helpful feature that helps you choose an appropriate station with plugs that are immediately available.
A number on an icon where the Supercharger is located lets EV drivers know how many stalls are available.
It is a useful tool, especially during hours of congestion. However, it has not been super effective for those who drive non-Tesla EVs, as other OEMs use UI platforms like Google’s Android Auto or Apple’s iOS.
Essentially, when those drivers needed to charge at a Supercharger that enables non-Tesla EVs to plug in, there was a bit more of a gamble. There was no guarantee that a plug would be available, and with no way to see how many are open, it was a risk.
Tesla adding this feature allows people to have a more convenient and easier-to-use experience if they are in a non-Tesla EV. With the already expansive Supercharger Network being available to so many EV owners, there is more congestion than ever.
This new feature makes the entire experience better for all owners, especially as there is more transparency regarding the availability of plugs at Supercharger stalls.
It will be interesting to see if Tesla is able to expand on this new move, as Apple Maps compatibility is an obvious goal of the company’s in the future, we could imagine. In fact, this is one of the first times an Android Auto feature is available to those owners before it became an option for iOS users.
Apple owners tend to get priority with new features within the Tesla App itself.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s Boring Co goes extra hard in Nashville with first rock-crushing TBM
The Boring Company’s machine for the project is now in final testing.
The Boring Company is gearing up to tackle one of its toughest projects yet, a new tunnel system beneath Nashville’s notoriously tough limestone terrain. Unlike the soft-soil conditions of Las Vegas and Austin, the Music City Loop will require a “hard-rock” boring machine capable of drilling through dense, erosion-resistant bedrock.
The Boring Company’s machine for the project is now in final testing.
A boring hard-rock tunneling machine
The Boring Company revealed on X that its new hard-rock TBM can generate up to 4 million pounds of grip force and 1.5 million pounds of maximum thrust load. It also features a 15-filter dust removal system designed to keep operations clean and efficient during excavation even in places where hard rock is present.
Previous Boring Co. projects, including its Loop tunnels in Las Vegas, Austin, and Bastrop, were dug primarily through soft soils. Nashville’s geology, however, poses a different challenge. Boring Company CEO and President Steve Davis mentioned this challenge during the project’s announcement in late July.
“It’s a tough place to tunnel, Nashville. If we were optimizing for the easiest places to tunnel, it would not be here. You have extremely hard rock, like way harder than it should be. It’s an engineering problem that’s fairly easy and straightforward to solve,” Davis said.
Nashville’s limestone terrain
Experts have stated that the city’s subsurface conditions make it one of the more complex tunneling environments in the U.S. The Outer Nashville Basin is composed of cherty Mississippian-age limestone, a strong yet soluble rock that can dissolve over time, creating underground voids and caves, as noted in a report from The Tennessean.
Jakob Walter, the founder and principal engineer of Haushepherd, shared his thoughts on these challenges. “Limestone is generally a stable sedimentary bedrock material with strength parameters that are favorable for tunneling. Limestone is however fairly soluble when compared to other rack materials, and can dissolve over long periods of time when exposed to water.
“Unexpected encounters with these features while tunneling can result in significant construction delays and potential instability of the excavation. In urban locations, structures at the ground surface should also be constantly monitored with robotic total stations or similar surveying equipment to identify any early signs of movement or distress,” he said.
Tesla teases new market entrance with confusing and cryptic message
Tesla expands crucial Supercharging feature for easier access
Elon Musk’s Boring Co goes extra hard in Nashville with first rock-crushing TBM
-
News5 days agoTesla shares rare peek at Semi factory’s interior
-
Elon Musk5 days agoTesla says texting and driving capability is coming ‘in a month or two’
-
News4 days agoTesla makes online ordering even easier
-
News4 days agoTesla Model Y Performance set for new market entrance in Q1
-
News5 days agoTesla Cybercab production starts Q2 2026, Elon Musk confirms
-
News5 days agoTesla China expecting full FSD approval in Q1 2026: Elon Musk
-
News6 days agoTesla Model Y Performance is rapidly moving toward customer deliveries
-
News3 days agoTesla is launching a crazy new Rental program with cheap daily rates