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U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated

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U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated

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EV adoption in the U.S. happening much faster than anticipated, according to an observation of research by Recurrent Auto which is focused on providing transparency and confidence in pre-owned EV transactions. The research directly contradicts and challenges a statement by Jack Hollis, the executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor North America.

According to Hollis, consumer demand isn’t sufficient enough for the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles to develop as fast as everyone would like. He added that battery electric vehicles cost too much and that the infrastructure isn’t ready for recharging the batteries away from home.

“I don’t think the market is ready. I don’t think the infrastructure is ready. And even if you were ready to purchase one, and if you could afford it … they’re still too high,” Hollis said.

Recurrent Auto: EV adoption is happening faster than expected

In an interview with Teslarati, Recurrent CEO, Scott Case shared an observation of a study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) which has released a market projection for EV adoption annually since 2018.

Scott told me that Recurrent noticed that BCG repeated the same analysis four times since 2018 and has gotten it wrong each time.

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“What we’ve seen every time they’ve done this is that they’ve just missed their forecast and gotten too low every single time.”

He said what was really interesting was that they were seeing BCG’s forecast and noticed that despite having all of the data and models, they’ve been “systematically under forecasting how fast the EV adoption is going to happen.”

 

Credit: Recurrent Auto

The graph above shows how the EV sales projection for 2030 by BCG changed each time it released a report. According to BCG, EV sales projections in the U.S. for 2030 continued to grow to:

  • 21% in the 2018 report
  • 26% in the 2020 report
  • 42% in the 2021 report
  • 53% in the 2022 report

What Scott and the team at Recurrent found strange was that in the course of four years, the U.S. EV sales projections for 2030 more than doubled growing from an estimated 21% to 53%.

Scott pointed out that BCG isn’t the only company that has consistently missed how quickly the auto market is transitioning.

“The market adoption is just happening faster than any moment in the past. This is not about when we get to complete it, or what the numbers have been already. It’s what the best industry experts are forecasting about how fast this is going to happen.”

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“We still have eight years between now and 2030. How many more times is this going to get forecasted? Eventually, they will get it right because we’ll be in 2030 and we’ll know exactly how many cars were sold that are EVs versus combustion engines. But there’s clearly only one direction that this adoption forecast is going.”

3 Major Factors

Scott went over the three major factors BCG uses in its model.

“First, it’s what are the projections for battery prices? This is a huge component of the cost of EVs. Second, is what the vehicle selection looks like and how many automakers are adopting different models. And the third is government policy changes. When you think about those three factors and over the course of the 2018-2022 models, you can sort of understand what’s been changing.”

Scott added that there was a 97% cost reduction in lithium-ion battery prices over the past three decades up to 2018.

“Since 2018, the decrease in cost flattened out, and even over the last year, it increased somewhat because of the supply chain difficulties and global issues. That’s not what was going on in this model. It’s not the battery price changes that are causing this forecast.”

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“I think what you’re seeing over the course of this four-year period is the second factor. It’s vehicle selection and it translates into how many automakers are adopting and adding vehicles to their fleet. That’s a function of how automakers understand what consumers want to buy. I would say that this is a true reflection of market demand and not any government policy whether it’s a ban or a tax credit.”

Scott pointed out that next year, the Tesla Model Y will be the global best-selling vehicle without any help from any tax credit.

“You know what car it’s knocking off? It’s the Toyota Camry.”

One thing that BCG’s 2022 forecast did not include was the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act which was signed just last month. Another thing not reflected in the 2022 forecast was California’s proposed ban on the sale of gasoline vehicles in 2034.

“California just passed the total ban on new ICE sales in 2035. Washington State where I live has–it’s nonbinding but it’s a 2030 cut-off. I’m not sure either of those is actually going to be needed because I think that the market going to take care of the transition well before those sales projections happen.”

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“The most recent run of the BCG estimate was in the spring. They ran the model in the spring and published it in June. At that point, the Inflation Reduction Act was dead. Everyone thought the EV tax credit was dead and done. That doesn’t even reflect the impact of that. I would expect the next time that this model gets to run in 2023, you’ve got the impact of the EV tax credit which is a ten-year run, and the California gas car ban for 2035.”

He also said the bans will probably not be needed due to how fast the market is transitioning to EVs before they take effect. The forecast will most likely be even higher once they account for tax credits and the changing government policies.

“There’s room to grow here.”

Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission. 

Your feedback is important. If you have any comments, concerns, or see a typo, you can email me at johnna@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @JohnnaCrider1

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 earnings: Wall Street’s reactions

Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 results delivered the highest quarterly revenue in company history, and Wall Street analysts are taking notice. 

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 results delivered record quarterly revenues, and Wall Street is taking notice. 

The automaker reported $28.1 billion in revenue, topping estimates of $26.4 billion, while non-GAAP EPS landed at $0.50 versus $0.54 expected. Despite the slight earnings miss, Tesla’s free cash flow surged to nearly $4.0 billion and total cash on hand jumped to $41.6 billion, a new high.

The following are some of Wall Street’s reactions to Tesla’s third-quarter results.

Mizuho

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh maintained an “Outperform” rating on Tesla and raised the firm’s price target to $485 from $460 per share, pointing to Tesla’s next-generation autonomy roadmap. “We see 2026E better with stronger FSD traction and deliveries. TSLA is focusing on AI5/HW5 with ~40x gains gen/gen, while ramping Robotaxis and FSD into 2026E–27E.”

Rakesh also highlighted that Mizuho sees Tesla as “well-positioned” to lead “physical AI with Cybercab/FSD traction, humanoid longer term, offset by near-term demand headwinds.”

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Wedbush

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterated his “Outperform” rating and $600 price target on Tesla. As per the analyst, “Tesla reported its FY3Q25 results featuring beats on the top-line while missing bottom-line expectations as the company benefitted from a pull-forward in its delivery segment with greater strength across EMEA and APAC while making gradual progress with its autonomous and energy businesses.” 

He also pointed to Musk’s upcoming compensation vote as a key inflection point: “We believe it will be approved by a wide margin despite some opposition,” Ives noted. “That will be incremental to keeping Musk as a war-time CEO as the company enters a critical AI expansion phase.”

Baird

Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated his “Outperform” rating and $548 per share price target for Tesla following the company’s Q3 2025 earnings results. He praised Tesla’s energy segment for delivering record results. 

“Energy demand is particularly high given grid constraints in several regions and a rapid build-out of infrastructure. We expect this piece of the business to capture more attention in the remainder of 2025 and moving into 2026 with the tipping points for longer-term initiatives (Optimus, robotaxi, etc.) more opaque,” Kallo noted.

Deepwater

Meanwhile, Deepwater’s Gene Munster struck a more measured tone. “The September numbers and earnings call were largely uneventful,” Munster said, adding that Tesla’s decision to move cautiously with robotaxis in Austin is the right one. 

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“Shares of TSLA traded down following Elon’s comment that he remains paranoid about the safety of Robotaxi given any accidents would represent a significant step back in terms of the public’s confidence in the fleet,” he wrote. Munster, however, emphasized that Tesla’s cash position is a major strength: “They have enough cash to will Elon’s vision into reality. It may take a lot longer than many expect, but they’ve got the cash to get there.”

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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s massive Q3 update reaffirms it’s not just a car company anymore

From record global deliveries to new AI breakthroughs, Megablock energy tech & next-gen Superchargers, Tesla showed why it’s still miles ahead.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla’s third-quarter update showcased a flurry of milestones across its vehicles, AI, and energy divisions. The company achieved record deliveries and energy storage deployments while launching new products in North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific. 

Tesla also emphasized its focus on scaling AI-powered autonomy and virtual power plant technology as part of its push towards Master Plan Part IV.

Global product rollouts and record regional performance

Tesla’s Q3 highlights revealed strong traction across multiple continents. In North America, the automaker launched the new Model 3 and Model Y Standard variants, each offering over 300 miles of range and starting below $40,000. The Model Y Performance also debuted, highlighting Tesla’s focus on sheer performance and driving dynamics.

In Europe and the Middle East, Model Y topped sales charts in Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Finland while reaching number one in the Netherlands and Denmark in September. Giga Berlin celebrated production of its 100,000th refreshed Model Y, including the first European-built Performance units. Tesla confirmed it’s working toward regulatory approval for its FSD Supervised software in Europe.

Across Asia-Pacific, Tesla introduced the Model YL in China, an extended wheelbase, six-seat version of its best-selling crossover SUV, and achieved record deliveries in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Singapore. The company also began Model Y deliveries in India, launched FSD Supervised in Australia and New Zealand, and confirmed South Korea is now its third-largest global market.

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AI, charging, and energy divisions

Tesla’s AI division rolled out version 14 of FSD Supervised, integrating key elements of its Robotaxi model and improving responses to complex driving scenarios. The company expanded its Austin Robotaxi fleet and launched a Bay Area ride-hailing pilot while announcing a U.S. semiconductor manufacturing deal with Samsung to boost AI compute capacity.

Tesla also introduced Grok, an AI vehicle companion, alongside new vehicle software like Low Power Mode and Light Sync. The company also introduced minor but notable convenience improvements, such as the ability to order food directly from the vehicle at the Tesla Diner in LA.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s energy business achieved record storage deployments and revealed “Megablock,” a next-generation industrial product built around Megapack 3s, slated for production in Houston by 2026. The Superharger Network grew 18% year-over-year as well, adding over 3,500 Supercharger stalls and debuting V4 cabinets capable of 500 kW passenger charging and up to 1,200 kW for Tesla Semi trucks.

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Tesla reveals its plans for Hardware 3 owners who are eager for updates

“We have not completely given up on HW3. These customers are very important. They are early adopters. We will definitely take care of you guys.”

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Tesla-Chips-HW3-1
Image used with permission for Teslarati. (Credit: Tom Cross)

Tesla has finally revealed its plans for Hardware 3 owners who are eager to have access to the latest versions of the company’s Full Self-Driving suite.

Tesla’s Hardware 3 vehicles feature an older chip that does not immediately give access to new versions of the FSD suite. Cars like the new Model Y have Hardware 4, often referred to as AI4, while Tesla is already working to develop AI5 chips with suppliers TSMC and Samsung.

However, during the Q3 Earnings Call on Wednesday, Tesla finally gave some information to those Hardware 3 owners who have been anxiously waiting for updates, and hopefully, this will give them some peace of mind.

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 earnings results

The comments came from Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja, who said that he is also impacted by the HW3 delays because his daily commuter is a HW3 vehicle.

He said:

“We have not completely given up on HW3. These customers are very important. They are early adopters. We will definitely take care of you guys.”

Additionally, Tesla’s Head of AI and Autopilot, Ashok Elluswamy, added that the company plans to offer a v14 Lite version of the Full Self-Driving (Supervised) suite in Q2 of next year.

The company has tried to give HW3 owners more opportunities to trade in their cars for new vehicles, giving them the opportunity to have access to the latest FSD software versions, which are prioritized for HW4 vehicles.

However, it is easier said than done to simply trade in your car and commit to a long-term financial commitment. For this reason, many HW3 owners have grown incredibly frustrated with how Tesla has handled the situation, especially considering they have been told they would be taken care of for several quarters now.

It appears that these owners will be waiting a tad longer for any sort of true progress, unless they have an interest in using the FSD transfer to get a new vehicle without paying for the suite once again.

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