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U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated

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U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated

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EV adoption in the U.S. happening much faster than anticipated, according to an observation of research by Recurrent Auto which is focused on providing transparency and confidence in pre-owned EV transactions. The research directly contradicts and challenges a statement by Jack Hollis, the executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor North America.

According to Hollis, consumer demand isn’t sufficient enough for the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles to develop as fast as everyone would like. He added that battery electric vehicles cost too much and that the infrastructure isn’t ready for recharging the batteries away from home.

“I don’t think the market is ready. I don’t think the infrastructure is ready. And even if you were ready to purchase one, and if you could afford it … they’re still too high,” Hollis said.

Recurrent Auto: EV adoption is happening faster than expected

In an interview with Teslarati, Recurrent CEO, Scott Case shared an observation of a study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) which has released a market projection for EV adoption annually since 2018.

Scott told me that Recurrent noticed that BCG repeated the same analysis four times since 2018 and has gotten it wrong each time.

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“What we’ve seen every time they’ve done this is that they’ve just missed their forecast and gotten too low every single time.”

He said what was really interesting was that they were seeing BCG’s forecast and noticed that despite having all of the data and models, they’ve been “systematically under forecasting how fast the EV adoption is going to happen.”

 

Credit: Recurrent Auto

The graph above shows how the EV sales projection for 2030 by BCG changed each time it released a report. According to BCG, EV sales projections in the U.S. for 2030 continued to grow to:

  • 21% in the 2018 report
  • 26% in the 2020 report
  • 42% in the 2021 report
  • 53% in the 2022 report

What Scott and the team at Recurrent found strange was that in the course of four years, the U.S. EV sales projections for 2030 more than doubled growing from an estimated 21% to 53%.

Scott pointed out that BCG isn’t the only company that has consistently missed how quickly the auto market is transitioning.

“The market adoption is just happening faster than any moment in the past. This is not about when we get to complete it, or what the numbers have been already. It’s what the best industry experts are forecasting about how fast this is going to happen.”

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“We still have eight years between now and 2030. How many more times is this going to get forecasted? Eventually, they will get it right because we’ll be in 2030 and we’ll know exactly how many cars were sold that are EVs versus combustion engines. But there’s clearly only one direction that this adoption forecast is going.”

3 Major Factors

Scott went over the three major factors BCG uses in its model.

“First, it’s what are the projections for battery prices? This is a huge component of the cost of EVs. Second, is what the vehicle selection looks like and how many automakers are adopting different models. And the third is government policy changes. When you think about those three factors and over the course of the 2018-2022 models, you can sort of understand what’s been changing.”

Scott added that there was a 97% cost reduction in lithium-ion battery prices over the past three decades up to 2018.

“Since 2018, the decrease in cost flattened out, and even over the last year, it increased somewhat because of the supply chain difficulties and global issues. That’s not what was going on in this model. It’s not the battery price changes that are causing this forecast.”

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“I think what you’re seeing over the course of this four-year period is the second factor. It’s vehicle selection and it translates into how many automakers are adopting and adding vehicles to their fleet. That’s a function of how automakers understand what consumers want to buy. I would say that this is a true reflection of market demand and not any government policy whether it’s a ban or a tax credit.”

Scott pointed out that next year, the Tesla Model Y will be the global best-selling vehicle without any help from any tax credit.

“You know what car it’s knocking off? It’s the Toyota Camry.”

One thing that BCG’s 2022 forecast did not include was the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act which was signed just last month. Another thing not reflected in the 2022 forecast was California’s proposed ban on the sale of gasoline vehicles in 2034.

“California just passed the total ban on new ICE sales in 2035. Washington State where I live has–it’s nonbinding but it’s a 2030 cut-off. I’m not sure either of those is actually going to be needed because I think that the market going to take care of the transition well before those sales projections happen.”

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“The most recent run of the BCG estimate was in the spring. They ran the model in the spring and published it in June. At that point, the Inflation Reduction Act was dead. Everyone thought the EV tax credit was dead and done. That doesn’t even reflect the impact of that. I would expect the next time that this model gets to run in 2023, you’ve got the impact of the EV tax credit which is a ten-year run, and the California gas car ban for 2035.”

He also said the bans will probably not be needed due to how fast the market is transitioning to EVs before they take effect. The forecast will most likely be even higher once they account for tax credits and the changing government policies.

“There’s room to grow here.”

Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission. 

Your feedback is important. If you have any comments, concerns, or see a typo, you can email me at johnna@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @JohnnaCrider1

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Tesla hints a smaller pickup truck could be on the way

Tesla has considered a smaller EV pickup, and sounds as if it is actively developing one in its Design Studio.

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tesla pickup
An artist's render of the Tesla Pickup Truck. (Credit: Emre Husman)

Tesla hinted that a smaller pickup truck could be on the way, but the company did not clarify whether it would be an abbreviated version of the Cybertruck, or a new design altogether.

The Cybertruck is unlike any vehicle that has ever come before it. Some other vehicles, like the DeLorean, have had similar shapes, but no manufacturer or pickup brand has ever tried to build such an interesting and unorthodox truck, especially in the quantity Tesla builds them.

Only available in North America and the United Arab Emirates (for order as of now, as deliveries are not expected until the end of this year), the Cybertruck has not made its way to areas like Europe or Asia, where Tesla has a sizeable presence. Much of this is due to the sheer size of the pickup, which would not be an ideal vehicle for many of the tight streets and various traffic conditions.

Elon Musk hints at smaller Tesla Cybertruck version down the road

Tesla already made the Cybertruck smaller before it started manufacturing it and delivering it to customers in October 2023. This was to help it fit inside the Boring Company tunnels, but it also seemed as if it just needed a slight scaling back for general public use.

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Tesla’s VP of Powertrain, Lars Moravy, spoke on Saturday at the X Takeover about a significant change in the Tesla lineup that has been discussed internally by the company, as questions relating to the Cybertruck’s size and its ability to be useful or practical in other markets continue to be questioned.

He was asked, “Do you see a need for a smaller, more globally scalable version to serve broader, more urban or international segments of the pickup market?”

He said:

“We always talked about making a smaller pickup. I think in the future, as more and more of the Robotaxi comes into the world, we look at those options and we think about, ‘Okay, that kind of service is useful not just for people, but also for goods.”

He continued by stating that Tesla has been working in its Design Studio, located in Hawthorne, California, with potential designs:

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“We’ve definitely been churning in the design studio about what we might do to serve that need, for sure.”

The question and answer start at the 22:22 mark of the video below:

It sounds as if the question is phrased as, “Will Tesla develop a smaller Cybertruck?” while Lars’s answer only specifies “pickup,” and not necessarily “a smaller Cybertruck.”

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It also seems that, if Tesla is doing as much work as it sounds like in the Design Studio, perhaps it is mulling a new pickup design altogether. The Cybertruck has been the best-selling electric pickup on many occasions from a quarterly perspective, and it was the best-selling EV pickup in 2024.

Tesla has designed smaller pickups in the past, but they’ve never made it to market. An exhibit at the Petersen Automotive Museum in Los Angeles showed internal drawings of pickup concepts that Tesla considered for its lineup.

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Tesla’s new affordable Model Y details teased in new sighting

The affordable Tesla Model Y could be the perfect starter car for a Robotaxi service.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla has been very secretive about any details surrounding its affordable vehicles, but a new sighting seems to have provided a first glimpse at the company’s cheaper Model Y. Based on the sighting, it appears that the vehicle will indeed be a stripped-out version of the all-electric crossover, but it could be the perfect starter car for a Robotaxi service.

Affordable Tesla

During the second quarter earnings call, Tesla VP for Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy stated that more affordable models will be available for everyone in Q4. He also confirmed that the production of the vehicles really did start in June, just as stated in Tesla’s previous Update Letters. 

Tesla executives, however, did not provide specific details about the affordable cars, save for a previous comment stating that they would be quite similar to what the company currently offers today. This has brought speculations that Tesla’s more affordable vehicles that were listed in its Update Letters will just be stripped-out versions of cars like the Model Y.

Recent Sighting

These speculations seemed to be accurate, at least based on a recent sighting of the affordable car that has recently been posted on social media. The video, which was reportedly captured in California, featured a stripped-out Model Y with several characteristics that will likely make it notably more affordable. 

Based on the video, it would appear that the affordable Model Y will feature no split headlights and no glass roof. The indirect light bar also seems to be absent from the vehicle. Inside, the vehicle did not seem to have cupholder covers and no rear screen. Its seats also look like Tesla’s non-ventilated vegan leather seats.

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Interestingly enough, the vehicle, despite its evident cost-cutting measures, still features a front bumper camera. Considering that the car will be produced with Tesla’s AI6 chip, it would seem that Tesla is also designing the vehicle as an ideal car for its Robotaxi service.

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Elon Musk shares details on Tesla AI6 production deal with Samsung

Tesla is already laying the groundwork for the ramp of its next-generation products.

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tesla-supercomputer-pre-dojo
Credit: Tim Zaman/Twitter

Elon Musk has provided some details about Tesla’s AI6 production deal with South Korean tech giant Samsung. As per Musk, Samsung’s upcoming Texas fabrication facility will be dedicated to the production of Tesla’s AI6 chip.

Musk’s update suggests that Tesla is already laying the groundwork for the ramp of its next-generation products like the Cybercab and Optimus.

Samsung AI6 production reports

On Sunday, Bloomberg News claimed that Samsung will be producing semiconductors for Tesla in a $16.5 billion deal. As per the report, Samsung is currently producing Tesla’s AI4 chip, and the deal will help the South Korean tech giant gain some ground back from competitors in the semiconductor market.

Elon Musk confirmed the news on X, stating that the $16.5 billion is actually just the bare minimum. As per Musk, the deal with Samsung will likely be “much more than that.” And in a later comment, Musk clarified that the actual output of Samsung’s Tesla AI6 plant will “likely be several times higher” than what has been reported.

Musk shared a critical detail that would likely allow Samsung to maximize its AI6 output. “Samsung agreed to allow Tesla to assist in maximizing manufacturing efficiency. This is a critical point, as I will walk the line personally to accelerate the pace of progress. And the fab is conveniently located not far from my house,” Musk wrote in his post.

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Elon Musk on AI5 and AI6

Tesla currently produces vehicles with its AI4 chip, which is produced by Samsung. As per the CEO, Tesla’s AI5 chip, which just finished its design, will be produced by TSMC. The AI5 chip will be produced initially in Taiwan, and then in Arizona, the CEO noted.

Elon Musk’s comments about AI6 and Samsung’s output suggest that Tesla is really preparing to enter a stage in its growth that involves production at a scale that’s never been seen before. Tesla’s speed is quite notable, though it seems safe to assume that the actual rollout of AI6 will still be a few years away. 

In a few years, Tesla will probably be mass producing the Cybercab and Optimus, as well as more affordable vehicles that will likely see more adoption from mainstream customers. This means that Samsung’s AI6 ramp will likely be just in time to support Tesla’s outputs for its Optimus bots, its Cybercabs, and its mass market affordable cars.

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