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U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated

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U.S. EV adoption is happening faster than anticipated

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EV adoption in the U.S. happening much faster than anticipated, according to an observation of research by Recurrent Auto which is focused on providing transparency and confidence in pre-owned EV transactions. The research directly contradicts and challenges a statement by Jack Hollis, the executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor North America.

According to Hollis, consumer demand isn’t sufficient enough for the mass adoption of battery electric vehicles to develop as fast as everyone would like. He added that battery electric vehicles cost too much and that the infrastructure isn’t ready for recharging the batteries away from home.

“I don’t think the market is ready. I don’t think the infrastructure is ready. And even if you were ready to purchase one, and if you could afford it … they’re still too high,” Hollis said.

Recurrent Auto: EV adoption is happening faster than expected

In an interview with Teslarati, Recurrent CEO, Scott Case shared an observation of a study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) which has released a market projection for EV adoption annually since 2018.

Scott told me that Recurrent noticed that BCG repeated the same analysis four times since 2018 and has gotten it wrong each time.

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“What we’ve seen every time they’ve done this is that they’ve just missed their forecast and gotten too low every single time.”

He said what was really interesting was that they were seeing BCG’s forecast and noticed that despite having all of the data and models, they’ve been “systematically under forecasting how fast the EV adoption is going to happen.”

 

Credit: Recurrent Auto

The graph above shows how the EV sales projection for 2030 by BCG changed each time it released a report. According to BCG, EV sales projections in the U.S. for 2030 continued to grow to:

  • 21% in the 2018 report
  • 26% in the 2020 report
  • 42% in the 2021 report
  • 53% in the 2022 report

What Scott and the team at Recurrent found strange was that in the course of four years, the U.S. EV sales projections for 2030 more than doubled growing from an estimated 21% to 53%.

Scott pointed out that BCG isn’t the only company that has consistently missed how quickly the auto market is transitioning.

“The market adoption is just happening faster than any moment in the past. This is not about when we get to complete it, or what the numbers have been already. It’s what the best industry experts are forecasting about how fast this is going to happen.”

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“We still have eight years between now and 2030. How many more times is this going to get forecasted? Eventually, they will get it right because we’ll be in 2030 and we’ll know exactly how many cars were sold that are EVs versus combustion engines. But there’s clearly only one direction that this adoption forecast is going.”

3 Major Factors

Scott went over the three major factors BCG uses in its model.

“First, it’s what are the projections for battery prices? This is a huge component of the cost of EVs. Second, is what the vehicle selection looks like and how many automakers are adopting different models. And the third is government policy changes. When you think about those three factors and over the course of the 2018-2022 models, you can sort of understand what’s been changing.”

Scott added that there was a 97% cost reduction in lithium-ion battery prices over the past three decades up to 2018.

“Since 2018, the decrease in cost flattened out, and even over the last year, it increased somewhat because of the supply chain difficulties and global issues. That’s not what was going on in this model. It’s not the battery price changes that are causing this forecast.”

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“I think what you’re seeing over the course of this four-year period is the second factor. It’s vehicle selection and it translates into how many automakers are adopting and adding vehicles to their fleet. That’s a function of how automakers understand what consumers want to buy. I would say that this is a true reflection of market demand and not any government policy whether it’s a ban or a tax credit.”

Scott pointed out that next year, the Tesla Model Y will be the global best-selling vehicle without any help from any tax credit.

“You know what car it’s knocking off? It’s the Toyota Camry.”

One thing that BCG’s 2022 forecast did not include was the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act which was signed just last month. Another thing not reflected in the 2022 forecast was California’s proposed ban on the sale of gasoline vehicles in 2034.

“California just passed the total ban on new ICE sales in 2035. Washington State where I live has–it’s nonbinding but it’s a 2030 cut-off. I’m not sure either of those is actually going to be needed because I think that the market going to take care of the transition well before those sales projections happen.”

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“The most recent run of the BCG estimate was in the spring. They ran the model in the spring and published it in June. At that point, the Inflation Reduction Act was dead. Everyone thought the EV tax credit was dead and done. That doesn’t even reflect the impact of that. I would expect the next time that this model gets to run in 2023, you’ve got the impact of the EV tax credit which is a ten-year run, and the California gas car ban for 2035.”

He also said the bans will probably not be needed due to how fast the market is transitioning to EVs before they take effect. The forecast will most likely be even higher once they account for tax credits and the changing government policies.

“There’s room to grow here.”

Note: Johnna is a Tesla shareholder and supports its mission. 

Your feedback is important. If you have any comments, concerns, or see a typo, you can email me at johnna@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @JohnnaCrider1

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk is setting high expectations for Tesla AI5 and AI6 chips

Musk confirmed this week that Tesla had just completed a design review for AI5.

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Image used with permission for Teslarati. (Credit: Tom Cross)

Elon Musk is setting high expectations for Tesla’s in-house silicon program. As per Musk in a set of recent posts on X, Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 will be game-changing. 

Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 are incredibly important for Tesla’s future, which will likely be built on the back of very high-volume products like Optimus and the Cybercab.

Musk sets high expectations

Musk confirmed this week that Tesla had just completed a design review for AI5, which will initially be manufactured by TSMC in Taiwan before production ramps in Arizona. As per Musk, consolidating Tesla’s chip design efforts into one architecture has allowed the company to focus its silicon talent on delivering a single high-performance platform. 

“Just had a great design review today with the Tesla AI5 chip design team! This is going to be an epic chip. And AI6 to follow has a shot at being the best (by) AI chip by far. Switching from doing 2 chip architectures to 1 means all our silicon talent is focused on making 1 incredible chip. No-brainer in retrospect,” Musk wrote in his post.

In a follow-up post, the CEO also stated that the company’s upcoming AI5 chip “will probably be the best inference chip of any kind” for models below ~250 billion parameters, with the “lowest cost silicon and best performance per watt.” Musk added that AI6, which follows AI5, “has a shot at being the best AI chip by far.”

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AI6 as Dojo’s successor

While AI5 is nearing production, Musk has also pointed to AI6 as Tesla’s next major target. The chip will be manufactured at Samsung’s upcoming Texas facility, part of a multibillion-dollar deal to support Tesla’s next-generation products such as the Cybercab and the Optimus humanoid robot. Musk also noted that AI6 could effectively replace Project Dojo as Tesla’s training platform, given its potential for both inference and training workloads.

Industry veterans have echoed this view, with former Apple and Rivian engineer Phil Beisel suggesting that “AI6 is now Dojo.” Musk appeared to agree, responding with a “bullseye” emoji. Musk has also noted on X that he would personally be walking the line in Samsung’s upcoming AI6 factory in Texas, to make sure that the facility’s output is accelerated according to Tesla’s requirements. 

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk: Neuralink could restore partial vision to the blind next year

The executive posted the update on social media platform X.

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Credit: Steve Jurvetson/Twitter

Elon Musk has suggested that Neuralink could attempt to restore limited sight to visually impaired patients as early as 2026. 

The executive posted the update on social media platform X amid news of Neuralink’s first successful Telepathy implants outside the United States. 

Blindsight trials

In a response to a post from Neuralink’s official X account about its first Canadian patients, Musk wrote that the company is “Aiming to restore (limited) sight to the completely blind next year.” The update was well-received on social media, as the device would most likely provide notable quality of life improvements to patients. Neuralink’s current implant, Telepathy, is already changing lives today, and the same will likely be true for Blindsight.

This was not the first time that Musk has provided an update to Neuralink’s Blindsight trials. Earlier this year, Musk told the Qatar Economic Forum that the first human implantation of Blindsight could occur early 2026, potentially in the United Arab Emirates. Neuralink has explored collaboration with the Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi to perform the initial surgery. Blindsight has also received a “breakthrough device” designation from the US FDA, hinting at the implant’s development.

Blindsight’s potential

Musk has previously described Blindsight as Neuralink’s brain-computer interface (BCI) designed to restore vision. During Neuralink’s 2022 Show & Tell event, Musk stated that Blindsight would target the brain’s visual cortex, bypassing damaged eyes entirely to generate visual perception. This means that vision could be restored even for people who were born blind. 

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“The first two applications we’re going to aim for in humans are restoring vision, and I think this is notable in that even if someone has never had vision ever, like they were born blind, we believe we can still restore vision. The visual part of the cortex is still there. Even if they’ve never seen before, we’re confident they could see,” Musk said.

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Sweden Mediation Institute throws in the towel on Tesla vs IF Metall union conflict

After nearly two years, the union’s strike has become the country’s longest labor dispute to date.

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Credit: @NicklasNilsso14/X

Sweden’s Mediation Institute has formally ended its efforts to resolve the conflict between Tesla Sweden and trade union IF Metall. After nearly two years, the union’s strike has become the country’s longest labor dispute to date. 

Launched 677 days ago by the IF Metall union, the strike was intended to push Tesla Sweden into signing a collective agreement. Tesla Sweden, however, remained firm, maintaining that its working conditions are already better than union standards.

Mediation Institute withdraws

The state-run Mediation Institute, which had been involved early in the strike, confirmed this week that it was officially closing the case. The two parties have had several meetings, but neither side has been able to come to an agreement.

Director General Irene Wennemo described the effort as unprecedented in difficulty in a comment to Ekot. “We have tried in every possible way to get the parties to come closer to each other in a way that allows this conflict to end. But now we have come to the end of the road and have realized that it is just as good to end the case,” she told the Swedish outlet.

Union signals flexibility

The mediators noted in their final report that Tesla Sweden had limited authority in the talks, with key decisions appearing to rest with executives in the United States. The situation, they stated, created barriers to compromise that made the conflict “unlike anything else.” Tesla has maintained throughout that its Swedish workers already receive strong benefits and protections without the need for a formal collective agreement, as noted in a CarUp report.

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IF Metall, for its part, has begun hinting that it was open to alternatives. This was highlighted by Union Chair Marie Nilsson, who noted that while the preferred outcome of the country’s longest strike in history is a signed agreement, “other alternative solutions” are now on the table. “You can do it in different ways. The easiest thing would be to sign a collective agreement. But when that is not possible, we have to find other alternative solutions as well, so we are open to discussion,” the union official stated.

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