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What is the S-Curve? Why Tesla’s Model 3 can reach high volume production

Source: Teslarati

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The S-Curve: Tesla CEO Elon Musk is constantly referring to it, but what does it even mean? It could be the reason Tesla’s Model 3 revolutionizes the automotive industry.

The California-based electric car maker recently tweeted a visual representation of the S curve to make things clear for Tesla fans.

Essentially, the S-Curve is a production prediction that requires a company to invest vast amounts of money and resources at the beginning of production to work out the most efficient option. It’s about diffusion of innovation — as new ideas are tested, efficiency is reached, which leads to a higher volume of production.

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As factory production ramps up, the low volume numbers in the beginning allow management to tweak and adjust logistics in order to create a product in the most efficient manner.

This requires time and energy, and results in a lot of trial-and-error for a company. As the company produces more of its product and fine-tunes its process, it becomes more efficient until it reaches full volume production.

Musk clarified further during the Q2 earnings report on Aug. 2.

“Model 3 drive units as well as battery packs made with our proprietary 2170 form factor cells are being built on new lines at Gigafactory 1. We are now fine-tuning these manufacturing lines to significantly increase the production rate,” Musk said. “We wish we could do all of this faster and get everyone’s Model 3 to them right away. It’s important to understand that our production ramp will follow an S-Curve, meaning that it will begin slowly, grow exponentially, then start to tail off once we achieve full production.”

These first few stages are the “production hell” that Musk nodded to during last week’s Model 3 delivery event. The S-Curve requires a patience that Tesla fans have learned to endure and skeptics on Wall Street have boiled about.

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Melissa Schilling, professor of management and organizations at NYU’s Stern School of Business, recently told CNBC that the beginning of the S-Curve requires a company to pump a lot of money into their production line while getting very little in return.

As Model 3 production ramps up, it will reach full efficiency and tail off production increases will begin to plateau.

“As you start getting to the top, you’ve picked all the low-hanging fruit,” Schilling said. “Now (you) need to spend a lot more to get further.”

So as time moves on for Musk and Tesla, production will become more efficient and high-volume goals will be met.

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I'm an East Coast reporter for Teslarati. Contact me at matt@teslarati.com

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Tesla adds new feature that will be great for crowded parking situations

This is the most recent iteration of the app and was priming owners for the slowly-released Holiday Update.

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Credit: Grok

Tesla has added a new feature that will be great for crowded parking lots, congested parking garages, or other confusing times when you cannot seem to pinpoint where your car went.

Tesla has added a new Vehicle Locator feature to the Tesla App with App Update v4.51.5.

This is the most recent iteration of the app and was priming owners for the slowly-released Holiday Update.

While there are several new features, which we will reveal later in this article, perhaps one of the coolest is that of the Vehicle Locator, which will now point you in the direction of your car using a directional arrow on the home screen. This is similar to what Apple uses to find devices:

In real time, the arrow gives an accurate depiction of which direction you should walk in to find your car. This seems extremely helpful in large parking lots or unfamiliar shopping centers.

Getting to your car after a sporting event is an event all in itself; this feature will undoubtedly help with it:

Tesla’s previous app versions revealed the address at which you could locate your car, which was great if you parked on the street in a city setting. It was also possible to use the map within the app to locate your car.

However, this new feature gives a more definitive location for your car and helps with the navigation to it, instead of potentially walking randomly.

It also reveals the distance you are from your car, which is a big plus.

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Along with this new addition, Tesla added Photobooth features, Dog Mode Live Activity, Custom Wraps and Tints for Colorizer, and Dashcam Clip details.

All in all, this App update was pretty robust.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk shades Waymo: ‘Never really had a chance’

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk shaded Waymo in a post on X on Wednesday, stating the company “never really had a chance” and that it “will be obvious in hindsight.”

Tesla and Waymo are the two primary contributors to the self-driving efforts in the United States, with both operating driverless ride-hailing services in the country. Tesla does have a Safety Monitor present in its vehicles in Austin, Texas, and someone in the driver’s seat in its Bay Area operation.

Musk says the Austin operation will be completely void of any Safety Monitors by the end of the year.

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With the two companies being the main members of the driverless movement in the U.S., there is certainly a rivalry. The two have sparred back and forth with their geofences, or service areas, in both Austin and the Bay Area.

While that is a metric for comparison now, ultimately, it will not matter in the coming years, as the two companies will likely operate in a similar fashion.

Waymo has geared its business toward larger cities, and Tesla has said that its self-driving efforts will expand to every single one of its vehicles in any location globally. This is where the true difference between the two lies, along with the fact that Tesla uses its own vehicles, while Waymo has several models in its lineup from different manufacturers.

The two also have different ideas on how to solve self-driving, as Tesla uses a vision-only approach. Waymo relies on several things, including LiDAR, which Musk once called “a fool’s errand.”

This is where Tesla sets itself apart from the competition, and Musk highlighted the company’s position against Waymo.

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Jeff Dean, the Chief Scientist for Google DeepMind, said on X:

“I don’t think Tesla has anywhere near the volume of rider-only autonomous miles that Waymo has (96M for Waymo, as of today). The safety data is quite compelling for Waymo, as well.”

Musk replied:

“Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla. This will be obvious in hindsight.”

Tesla stands to have a much larger fleet of vehicles in the coming years if it chooses to activate Robotaxi services with all passenger vehicles. A simple Over-the-Air update will activate this capability, while Waymo would likely be confined to the vehicles it commissions as Robotaxis.

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Tesla AI5 project begins to move forward

According to a new report from Sedaily, Samsung is accelerating its preparation for U.S. production of the AI5 chips by hiring veteran engineers for its Customer Engineering team.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla supplier Samsung is preparing to manufacture the AI5 chip, which will launch the company’s self-driving efforts even further, with its latest move.

According to a new report from Sedaily, Samsung is accelerating its preparation for U.S. production of the AI5 chips by hiring veteran engineers for its Customer Engineering team, which will help resolve complex foundry challenges, stabilize production and yields, and ensure manufacturing goes smoothly for the new project.

The hiring push signals that Tesla’s AI5 project is moving forward quickly at Samsung, which was one of two suppliers to win a contract order from the world’s leading EV maker.

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TSMC is the other. TSMC is using its 3nm process, reportedly, while Samsung will do a 2nm as a litmus test for the process.

The different versions are due to the fact that “they translate designs to physical form differently,” CEO Elon Musk said recently. The goal is for the two to operate identically, obviously, which is a challenge.

Some might remember Apple’s A9 “Chipgate” saga, which found that the chips differed in performance because of different manufacturers.

The AI5 chip is Tesla’s next-generation hardware chip for its self-driving program, but it will also contribute to the Optimus program and other AI-driven features in both vehicles and other projects. Currently, Tesla utilizes AI4, formerly known as HW4 or Hardware 4, in its vehicles.

Tesla teases new AI5 chip that will revolutionize self-driving

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AI5 is specialized for use by Tesla as it will work in conjunction with the company’s Neural Networks, focusing on real-time inference to make safe and logical decisions during operation.

Musk said it was an “amazing design” and an “immense jump” from Tesla’s current AI4 chip. It will be roughly 40 times faster, and have 8 times the raw compute, with 9 times the memory capacity. It is also expected to be three times as efficient per watt as AI4.

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AI5 will make its way into “maybe a small number of units” next year, Musk confirmed. However, it will not make its way to high-volume production until 2027. AI5 is not the last step, either, as Musk has already confirmed AI6 would likely enter production in mid-2028.

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