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What is the S-Curve? Why Tesla’s Model 3 can reach high volume production

Source: Teslarati

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The S-Curve: Tesla CEO Elon Musk is constantly referring to it, but what does it even mean? It could be the reason Tesla’s Model 3 revolutionizes the automotive industry.

The California-based electric car maker recently tweeted a visual representation of the S curve to make things clear for Tesla fans.

Essentially, the S-Curve is a production prediction that requires a company to invest vast amounts of money and resources at the beginning of production to work out the most efficient option. It’s about diffusion of innovation — as new ideas are tested, efficiency is reached, which leads to a higher volume of production.

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As factory production ramps up, the low volume numbers in the beginning allow management to tweak and adjust logistics in order to create a product in the most efficient manner.

This requires time and energy, and results in a lot of trial-and-error for a company. As the company produces more of its product and fine-tunes its process, it becomes more efficient until it reaches full volume production.

Musk clarified further during the Q2 earnings report on Aug. 2.

“Model 3 drive units as well as battery packs made with our proprietary 2170 form factor cells are being built on new lines at Gigafactory 1. We are now fine-tuning these manufacturing lines to significantly increase the production rate,” Musk said. “We wish we could do all of this faster and get everyone’s Model 3 to them right away. It’s important to understand that our production ramp will follow an S-Curve, meaning that it will begin slowly, grow exponentially, then start to tail off once we achieve full production.”

These first few stages are the “production hell” that Musk nodded to during last week’s Model 3 delivery event. The S-Curve requires a patience that Tesla fans have learned to endure and skeptics on Wall Street have boiled about.

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Melissa Schilling, professor of management and organizations at NYU’s Stern School of Business, recently told CNBC that the beginning of the S-Curve requires a company to pump a lot of money into their production line while getting very little in return.

As Model 3 production ramps up, it will reach full efficiency and tail off production increases will begin to plateau.

“As you start getting to the top, you’ve picked all the low-hanging fruit,” Schilling said. “Now (you) need to spend a lot more to get further.”

So as time moves on for Musk and Tesla, production will become more efficient and high-volume goals will be met.

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Elon Musk reiterates his most optimistic prediction yet with “UHI” forecast

Despite his polarizing nature, Elon Musk is, at his core, an optimist.

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Joel Kowsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Despite his polarizing nature, Elon Musk is, at his core, an optimist. If he were not one, he would never have founded Tesla or SpaceX, or pursued projects such as Neuralink or xAI.

Musk’s optimism was on full display on social media platform X recently, when he shared what could very well be his most optimistic prediction yet.

Robots and humans

The Tesla CEO recently responded to a post from David Scott Patterson, who estimated that all jobs will be replaced by AI and robots easily by 2030. In his post, Patterson noted that if robots are sold at the same rate as vehicles, it could result in an output of 320 million robots per year. 

Musk responded that eventually, intelligent humanoid robots will far exceed the population of humans, and “there will be many robots in industry for every human to provide products & services.” 

Musk is already taking steps to achieve such a future. Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is expected to see its first “legion” produced this 2025. During an All-Hands meeting earlier this year, Musk also hinted to Tesla employees that the company will try to produce about 50,000 Optimus robots next year. 

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Universal High Income (UHI)

Musk has shared similar sentiments in the past, so it was no surprise that some X users asked the CEO how humans could sustain their lives when robots replace working individuals. To this, Musk responded that a Universal High Income (UHI) would be implemented, which should provide people with the best medical care, food, and transport available.

“There will be universal high income (not merely basic income). Everyone will have the best medical care, food, home, transport and everything else. Sustainable abundance,” Musk wrote in his post

Musk’s comment about sustainable abundance seems to be a prevalent theme in his recent optimistic comments. During Tesla’s second quarter earnings call, for example, Musk hinted that his Master Plan Part Four will describe a path towards sustainable abundance in a post-autonomy world.

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Tesla FSD upcoming Australia release seemingly teased bv media

The videos showed FSD navigating lane changes, slowing for traffic, and handling curves without driver input.

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Credit: Tesla AI/X

New videos from Australia have fueled speculations that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) will be rolling out in the country soon. 

The videos, which were shared widely on social media, showed Teslas navigating lane changes, slowing for traffic, and handling curves without driver input, but still with active supervision.

New FSD footage

One video, posted by lifestyle outlet Man of Many and narrated by journalist Ben McKimm, highlighted how quickly the system responded to real-world conditions. McKimm seemed quite impressed with FSD’s performance, stating that the vehicle performs maneuvers much like a human driver. 

Another video, which featured reporter Danielle Collin, featured a Tesla operating on public roads using its FSD (Supervised) system. Similar to McKimm, Collin seemed very impressed with the capabilities of FSD, as the vehicle was reacting to things like stop signs on its own. 

No regulatory barriers

This isn’t the first time the software has been seen on Australian roads. Earlier this year, Tesla released a clip of a Model 3 driving through Melbourne’s central business district with no visible driver input. A second video later surfaced from Sydney, reinforcing expectations that Australia could be among the first right-hand-drive markets to receive access.

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According to Tesla’s Australian website, FSD (Supervised) uses 360-degree camera visibility to manage blind spots, execute lane changes, and maintain awareness of surrounding vehicles, cyclists, and motorcycles. While Tesla notes that constant human oversight is still required for now, FSD is designed to handle city intersections, multi-lane highways, and traffic signals.

In an earlier statement to news.com.au, Tesla country director Thom Drew previously confirmed there were “no blockers in Australia” for a supervised release of FSD, similar to North America. “It’s something our business is working on releasing,” Drew said, though he did not provide a timeline.

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Tesla Careers website is hinting at preparations for a monster Q3 and Q4

Tesla has gone live with several dozen openings for Delivery Vehicle Prep specialists on its Careers website.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla seems to be preparing for a monster Q3 and Q4 2025. This was, at least, hinted at by some job openings that have been observed by industry watchers in Tesla’s Careers website.

Job listing trends

As observed by avid Tesla watchers on social media, the electric vehicle maker has gone live with several dozen openings for Delivery Vehicle Prep specialists on its Careers website. In North America alone, about 69 job openings for the position have been listed by the company. 

The role of a Delivery Vehicle Prep specialist is notable, as they help with vehicle preparation, vehicle inspections, effective lot management, and active collaboration with your team to enhance pre-delivery processes. Considering that the position ensures that cars are handed over to customers in the best way possible, it seems futile for Tesla to ramp up its hiring for the post if it is not expecting large volumes of deliveries in the coming months.

Increasing demand

Tesla’s vehicle sales in the first and second quarters of the year have been quite throttled due to a variety of factors, from the changeover to the Model Y in the Fremont Factory, Gigafactory Shanghai, Gigafactory Berlin, and Gigafactory Texas, to the rise of anti-Tesla sentiment due to CEO Elon Musk’s political activities earlier this year. These factors are no longer affecting Tesla this Q3, and the company tends to deliver a notable amount of its vehicles in the fourth quarter. 

With this in mind, it would appear that Tesla is indeed preparing for a massive uptick in its vehicle deliveries for the remaining months of the year. The company, after all, would likely be quite busy, especially with the upcoming introduction of the new Model 3 Performance and the rollout of Tesla China’s recently unveiled Model Y L. Expectations are also high that Tesla is preparing to roll out more affordable variants of its vehicles later this year.

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