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Model 3 Delayed by Model X ‘Manufacturing’ Challenges?

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Tesla Motors Manufacturing Plant
Tesla Motors Manufacturing Plant

Musk didn’t describe the Model X production challenges but the “real” answer may be battery range for a large, Model X. (Photo Credit: Steve Jurvetson)

11/20 Update: Looks like the two issues surrounding the Model X, heavy falcon wing doors and lack of battery range, have some pointing to BMW’s carbon fiber material, according to ValueWalk.

Tesla Motors earnings conference call provided some revelatory bits of information from Elon Musk and company, with one particular interesting item: the front electric motor in the new all-wheel drive Model S 85D could be in some shape or form in the Model 3 sedan.

(**Of note, Musk mentioned that there will be no more Performance 85 Model S without all the wheel-drivetrain; aids Tesla Motors manufacturing efficiency.)

Musk “seemed to indicate” that this new front motor in the all-wheel drive could be the prototype for the 2017 Model 3, mass-market electric car. This was in response to one analyst’s question on whether the delay with the Model X launch will affect the release and R&D for the Model 3 electric car?

Musk says,”The development of the small motor for the the dual motor car (Model S 85D), and smaller drive unit, in a lot of ways, is a precursor for the Model 3. It represents a significant improvement in cost, in steady state power, a number of other factors. It’s basically—it’s like a second generation motor essentially, that’s a good pathfinder for Model 3 on the powertrain side.”

But what about the Model X? What exactly are the challenges?  Musk’s comment were pretty cryptic.

Musk says, “We could certainly—it would be quite easy for us to make one (Model X), a handful of production units that are saleable and don’t really move the needle. So, what really matters is at what point can we get to scale production of a really high quality car and that’s really in the third quarter. We also learned a lesson in manufacturing that you have issues that are sometimes one out of 100, but unless you make 100 of something, you don’t see it.”

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A cautionary manufacturing approach is smart considering the very slow rollout of Model S sedans in 2012, but I’m not buying this “manufacturing” spin—though mainstream media has been.  The non-answer seems to point to what Green Car Reports’s John Voelcker mentioned in late October: battery pack range issues for a really heavy SUV/crossover.

Musk mentioned that the Model X version is close to a “Beta version,” and let’s hope this is true. They need this car to be a success and provide much needed revenue, a bridge vehicle to the Model 3.

Just today, long-time value investor, Ron Baron, CEO of Baron Funds, says, “All of us will likely be Tesla customers in 25 years.” His reasoning is Tesla’s laser-beam focus on electric cars and head start on electric vehicle manufacturing, agains the muddled strategies by bigger automakers, excluding BMW.

Baron says, “As a result, they are developing electric expertise so slowly that the lead Tesla has built up through its fast growing staff … may soon become insurmountable.” So, maybe this dual-drive technology for the Model X and Model S 85D will pay off.


 

As an aside, make sure you read the Motor Trend article, “2015 Tesla Model S P85D First Test,” describing their road test with the Model S all-wheel drive Model S 85D. Love these prose gems from the article:

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 But scrambling to the same 60 mph time in the P85D bears no resemblance to that at all. With one transmission gear and no head-bobbing shifts, it’s instead a rail-gun rush down a quarter-mile of asphalt bowling lane. Nothing in the drivetrain reciprocates; every part spins. There’s no exhaust smell; the fuel is invisible. The torque impacts your body with the violence of facing the wrong way on the train tracks when the whistle blows. Within the first degree of its first revolution, 100 percent of the motors’ combined 687 lb-ft slams the sense out of you. A rising-pitch ghost siren augers into your ears as you’re not so much.


"Grant Gerke wears his Model S on his sleeve and has been writing about Tesla for the last five years on numerous media sites. He has a bias towards plug-in vehicles and also writes about manufacturing software for Automation World magazine in Chicago. Find him at Teslarati

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk drops a surprise update on Boring Company’s next big dig

Musk says Boring Company could shrink the Austin to San Antonio drive to just minutes.

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Elon Musk says The Boring Company is working on what he called “a simple, precursor Hyperloop” tunnel connecting Austin and San Antonio, targeting speeds above 200 mph and cutting a drive that can take up to two and a half hours down to a consistent under 30 minutes. Musk posted the idea on X Sunday, in a reply to a repost of an AI generated video imagining a science fiction future with human colonies on other worlds, which he shared with the line “This is the future we shall bring into being.”


The Boring Company’s own account picked up the idea in the same thread, adding a detail about how the trip would actually work: “Because Loop/Hyperloop is express (i.e. no intermediate stops), one could travel from an Austin parking lot to a favorite San Antonio restaurant in about 30 minutes. As long as they both have Loop stations.” That framing ties the proposed intercity link to the same station model the company already runs in Las Vegas, where riders enter the tunnel network through small, garage style stops rather than one central terminal.

This is not the company’s first run at the Austin to San Antonio corridor. Boring Company floated tunnels between the two cities as far back as 2021, and later competed for a separate San Antonio Loop project tied to the airport before that specific bid stalled. Pitches for tunnels in Chicago, Los Angeles, and a New York to Washington corridor have followed a similar pattern of big announcement without a shovel in the ground.

What is different this time is the balance sheet, especially since The Boring Company closed a 3 billion dollar funding round led by investors in the United Arab Emirates earlier this month at a valuation near 23 billion dollars, giving the tunneling company more capital to chase speculative projects than it had during its earlier Texas pitches. The company is also mid-build on two other intercity systems it has actually broken ground on, inc;luding a Nashville tunnel linking downtown to the airport, where a second boring machine finished commissioning in June, and its Las Vegas network, where the station count keeps climbing on paper faster than tunnels get dug.

That gap between announcement and execution is the reason to treat Sunday’s post as an opening bid rather than a project. A tunnel spanning roughly 80 miles between two metro areas, running at speeds Boring Company has not demonstrated over any real distance, would dwarf anything the company has built. For now, the Austin to San Antonio Hyperloop exists as a caption under an AI generated space video.

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Tesla eyes supply partners for Optimus mass production

Tesla certified three Chinese suppliers for Optimus mass production, signaling its robot timeline is accelerating.

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Concept rendering of Tesla Optimus in mass production

Tesla’s robotics team traveled to Ningbo, in China’s Zhejiang province, on September 16 and spent the following day auditing component suppliers for Optimus, according to a Bloomberg report cited by RobotAIGeek. The visit moved three manufacturers from provisional status to certified mass production partners: Tuopu Group, which handles actuators and chassis components, Ningbo Joyson Electronic, a sensor supplier, and Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls, which builds thermal management systems. All three already supply parts to Tesla’s electric vehicles, and the audit reportedly came with fresh orders that supply chain reports put at an initial batch of roughly 5,000 units.

Tuopu, Joyson, and Sanhua built their manufacturing base serving the automotive industry, where tolerances and volume requirements are already close to what a mass produced humanoid robot demands. Sanhua in particular has history here. Teslarati reported last October that the company had received a roughly $685 million order for linear actuators tied to Optimus, a volume industry watchers estimated could cover around 180,000 robots once production ramped.

Supply chain reports tied to this week’s audit put Tesla’s near term production goal at about 1,000 Optimus units a week by late September, rising to 2,000 to 2,500 units a week by the end of the year. That pace would put real weight behind the timeline Tesla has been building toward since May, when it wound down Model S and Model X production at Fremont to convert that floor space into a dedicated Optimus line targeting one million units annually. JPMorgan analysts who toured the factory in August confirmed the conversion took roughly four months, a pace Musk has called unprecedented for a facility that size.

New drone video shows Tesla’s Optimus Factory reaching a turning point

Fremont is only the first phase. A second, larger Optimus plant is rising at Gigafactory Texas, where drone footage shared by Joe Tegtmeyer last week showed the structural steel nearing completion on the north end of the building. Tesla has said that facility is meant to eventually support production of up to 10 million units a year, though volume output there is not expected before 2027.

Commercial sales of Optimus are still targeted for the second half of 2027, but production is expected to start well before then. JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta has said Tesla’s “Optimus Academy” program, which uses early units to collect real world training data inside Tesla’s own facilities, is expected to be running later this year. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma described the Ningbo audits as “a positive commercialization signal for China’s humanoid supply chain,” noting that sentiment could improve further if the visit leads to confirmed supplier nominations and larger orders. The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index rose about 1.4% on the news, though it remains down roughly 30% for the year.

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Elon Musk’s next Uranium in Uranus merch is Boring Company’s weirdest tease yet

Elon Musk teased a glowing new Boring Company merch idea, complete with a Geiger counter.

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Concept rendering of Boring Company Uranium in Uranus merch tease via Grok
Concept rendering of Boring Company Uranium in Uranus merch tease via Grok

Elon Musk teased the next piece of Boring Company merchandise on X Saturday, and it is exactly as unserious as fans of the company’s product history have come to expect. “The next @boringcompany merch will put Uranium in Uranus,” Musk wrote in a thread posted early Saturday morning. He followed up by explaining that the item would glow in the dark, “because otherwise how could you find it,” and that a Geiger counter would be sold separately as “an optional strap-on.”

Musk closed the thread with a line that doubles as a mission statement for the tunneling company’s merchandise arm: “It’s not easy coming up with something that is both outrageously unsellable and yet extremely popular.”

The Boring Company has built a small but consistent side business out of novelty items that start as jokes and end up selling out. The company’s Not-a-Flamethrower raised roughly $10 million in a few days back in 2018, moving all 20,000 units it produced. Its Burnt Hair perfume, priced around $100 a bottle, sold out fast enough that scalpers were flipping units on eBay for ten times the retail price. Boring Bricks, made from tunneling spoil, followed the same playbook of teasing a product on X months before it became real.

Musk has not said what the actual item will be, only that it involves uranium and glows in the dark. Given the pattern, that vagueness is probably intentional. Past merch announcements have started as one-line jokes and taken weeks or months to turn into an actual product listing on the company’s site, and there is no guarantee this one follows through at all.

The timing lines up with a period of real momentum for the Boring Company outside of the joke merchandise. The company said last week it plans to double the number of operational stations on its Vegas Loop by the end of the year, a target tied to a hiring push for drivers and operations managers. Prufrock-5, one of the company’s tunnel boring machines, also just wrapped a test tunnel in Bastrop, Texas, and is expected to relaunch on its next assignment in November.

Whether the uranium joke turns into an actual product remains to be seen. Musk’s post did not include a price, a shipping date, or even a name for the item, which has historically meant a Boring Company website page goes up quietly, password protected, sometime before an announcement.

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