With all the buzz surrounding the upcoming Model 3 unveil and how Tesla will likely book 100,000 reservations within the first 24 hours of reservation opening, we decided to do a little math of our own to see what that may mean given some basic assumptions. We know that there are 221 Tesla stores worldwide that will begin taking Model 3 reservation at 10 am local time. Of those stores, there’s a high probability – based on feedback from staff at Tesla stores regarding the volume of inquiries around the Model 3 March 31st in-store reservation process – that hundreds of people will already be lined up, many of which camped overnight to guarantee their early spot in line, before the store opens. It’s important to note that we are assuming 24 hours from a 10am Pacific time opening and not 10am from the Sydney Australia Tesla Store which is 18 hours ahead.
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) March 24, 2016
Assuming each of the 221 Tesla stores can process a very conservative 30 reservations per hour, though some stores are preparing to handle 50 reservations or more per hour for the duration of the store’s opening hours, we can project a low of 53,000 Model 3 reservations will be placed before store closing on March 31st. These are from people that physically lined up at stores to place their reservations.