Investor's Corner
Tesla gets lower price targets from Jefferies, Morgan Stanley despite 110% YoY growth
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is facing new reservations from Wall Street, with analysts from Jefferies and Morgan Stanley lowering their price targets for the company. This was despite Tesla’s strong year-on-year growth, which saw Q1 2019’s electric car deliveries represent a 110% increase compared to Q1 2018.
In a note on Monday, Philippe Houchois from Jefferies lowered his price target for Tesla stock from $450 to $400. Houchois’ more conservative estimates followed the company’s release of its first-quarter vehicle delivery and production report, which revealed that Tesla delivered ~30% fewer vehicles in Q1 2019 compared to Q4 2018.
“While Q1 disappointed, the critical tests in our view remain demand elasticity in Q2 as lower-priced M3 versions become available and sorting out logistics,” Houchois said.
The Jefferies analyst also noted that Tesla’s recent deal with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, which will require the legacy automaker to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros to allow the electric car maker’s vehicles to be counted as part of its fleet in the region. By doing this, FCA will avoid fines for violating new European Union emission rules. In his note, Houchois stated that the deal could help Tesla generate more income.
“The announcement of an ‘Open Pool’ with FCA (Fiat Chrysler) to reduce calculated CO2 emissions in Europe could generate several $ million of cash income, possibly starting this year. The Tesla equity story remains stressful but we continue to see value in Tesla leading the charge towards attractive and more affordable battery EVs when most competitors continue to enter at the high end where the EV/ICE trade-off is assumed to be highest,” he wrote.
Apart from Houchois, longtime Tesla analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley also expressed his increasing concerns about Tesla’s funding this year. Similar to his stance in 2018, Jonas estimated that Tesla will likely raise equity in Q3 2019. “The fundamental narrative around Tesla appears more clouded than we have seen in several years. Signs of weakening demand have raised long-standing questions about the company’s ability to fund itself as an independent company,” he said.
Jonas also lowered his price target for Tesla stock from $260 to $240 per share.
While Tesla’s Q1 2019 vehicle delivery and production reports show a steep decline from the company’s figures in Q4 2018, portfolio manager Ken Kam noted that the electric car maker’s year-on-year growth actually paints a far less grim picture. Kam notes that Tesla’s annual growth between Q1 2018 and Q1 2019 is actually 110%, an impressive figure considering that Tesla was dealing with production issues during the first two quarters of the previous year.
Kam also argues that Tesla’s 110% year-over-year increase is a far better result than its peers in the auto industry, with GM announcing a 7% drop from Q1 2018, Ford announcing a decline of 1.6% in the same period, and Fiat Chrysler decreasing by 3% year over year. From this one year perspective, Tesla appears to be one of very few automakers that is actually growing.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading -0.95% at $272.34 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Tesla CEO Elon Musk teases insane capabilities of next major FSD update
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
