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SpaceX’s surprise Falcon 9 drone ship landing explained ahead of Cargo Dragon launch

SpaceX is set for an unexpected drone ship landing on Wednesday and explained earlier today why Falcon 9 will be taking that detour. (Richard Angle)

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Speaking in a press briefing prior to NASA’s next Cargo Dragon launch, a SpaceX official shed some light on a surprise Falcon 9 drone ship landing planned for Wednesday, revealing the circumstances behind the unique decision.

A few days ago, it became clear that SpaceX and NASA and decided to perform a drone ship booster landing attempt after Cargo Dragon’s CRS-19 launch, an unusual trajectory compared to the more typical return-to-launch-site (RTLS) Landing Zone recoveries. Teslarati discussed this quandary earlier today.

“As it turns out, this Falcon 9 landing is a bit of mystery: it’s unclear why exactly SpaceX has decided to land the booster at sea instead of the usual Landing Zone recoveries that have followed most recent Cargo Dragon launches. Typically, the low insertion orbit (~200 km x ~390 km) and relatively low mass of Cargo Dragon (less than 10 tons or 22,000 lb) means that Falcon 9 has (literally) tons of propellant left over, giving it the margins needed to flip around, cancel out a huge amount of horizontal velocity, and boost 100+ km (62+ mi) back to shore.

Instead, new Falcon 9 booster B1058 is scheduled to land aboard drone ship OCISLY some 350 km (220 mi) downrange, an unusual distance. For reference, SpaceX’s May 2019 CRS-17 mission is the only time Falcon 9 has landed at sea after a CRS launch since CRS-8, the rocket’s first successful drone ship recovery. That scenario was forced because LZ-1/2 had coincidently been showered in Crew Dragon debris after C201 exploded during testing. Even then, OCISLY was stationed just 20 or so kilometers offshore, meaning that Falcon 9 B1056 still performed a routine Return To Launch Site (RTLS) landing in spirit.”


Teslarati.com — December 3rd

Falcon 9 B1048 lands aboard drone ship OCISLY after its fourth successful launch. In a surprise, SpaceX’s next launch is now also expected to feature a drone ship recovery. (SpaceX)

According to Jessica Jensen, SpaceX’s director of Dragon mission management, the actual reason behind Falcon 9 B1058’s surprise drone ship landing is relatively simple and was more or less one of the possibilities posed earlier today at Teslarati.

“[It’s] also possible that CRS-19 will follow in the footsteps of CRS-18, which sported a prototype Falcon 9 upper stage designed to push the enveloped of its orbital longevity. Falcon 9 B1056 still managed to land at LZ-1 after CRS-18, but a more ambitious follow-on test could potentially require much more propellant, accounting for the drone ship’s position further downrange “

Much as predicted, SpaceX is essentially going to perform an even more ambitious coast test, requiring significantly larger propellant margins that took away from Falcon 9’s own landing propellant budget. For whatever reason, the gray coating covering the CRS-18 upper stage’s RP-1 (refined kerosene) tank is not present on Falcon 9. Based on a picture taken of the horizontal rocket by a NASA Social CRS-19 attendee, CRS-19’s upper stage looks no different than any other.

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Jensen says that the coast test will be performed for unspecified “other” customers, presumably referring to the US Air Force (USAF) and other commercial customers interested in direct-to-geostationary (GEO) launch services. Direct GEO launches require rocket upper stages to perform extremely long coasts in orbit, all while fighting the hostile vacuum environment’s temperature swings and radiation belts and attempting to prevent cryogenic propellant from boiling off or freezing solid. In simple terms, it’s incredibly difficult to build a reliable, high-performance upper stage capable of remaining fully functional after 6-12+ hours in orbit.

Although SpaceX said that the test was for “other” customers, that may well have been a cryptic way to avoid indicating that one such customer might be NASA itself. NASA is in the midst of a political battle for the Europa Clipper spacecraft’s launch contract, which is currently legally obligated to launch on NASA’s SLS rocket. Said rocket will likely cost on the order of >$2 billion per launch, meaning that simply using Falcon Heavy or Delta IV Heavy could save no less than ~$1.5 billion. Incredibly, that means that simply using a commercial launch vehicle could save NASA enough money to fund an entire Curiosity-sized Mars rover or even a majority of the cost of building a dedicated Europa lander. Such a launch would demand every ounce of Falcon Heavy’s performance, including a very long orbital coast.

NASA’s ambitious and exciting Europa Clipper mission is being held back by the joint NASA-Congress SLS rocket. (NASA/Teslarati)

Regardless of the prospective beneficiaries of SpaceX’s planned Falcon 9 upper stage test, CRS-19 is scheduled to launch no earlier than 12:51 pm EST (16:51 UTC), December 4th. High upper-level winds may delay the mission 24 hours to December 5th but for now, it remains on track for Wednesday.

Check out Teslarati’s Marketplace! We offer Tesla accessories, including for the Tesla Cybertruck and Tesla Model 3.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Chevy answers Tesla’s new ‘Standard’ offerings with an actually affordable EV

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Credit: KilowattStation | X

Chevy answered Tesla’s new Standard Model 3 and Model Y offerings with its second-generation Bolt EV, a car that actually appeals to those who were looking for affordability.

Earlier this week, Tesla unveiled the Model 3 and Model Y Standard, two stripped-down versions of the cars of the same name it already offers. The Long Range versions are now labeled as “Premium,” while the Performance configurations stand alone.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

However, many people were sort of upset with what Tesla came to market with. For well over a year, it has been transparent that it was planning to develop affordable models, and this year, it was forced to take action to counter the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit.

The Model 3 Standard starts at $36,990, while the Model Y Standard comes in at $39,990. While these are cheaper than the company’s Premium offerings, many fans said that Tesla missed the mark with the pricing, as these numbers are not necessarily “affordable.”

At the very least, they will likely miss the mark in helping Tesla regain annual growth rates for its deliveries. Tesla will likely rely on its “unboxed process,” which will be used to manufacture the Cybercab and potentially other affordable models in the future. These will be priced at below $30,000.

Other carmakers are making their moves and were able to undercut Tesla’s new Standard offerings, Chevrolet being one of them.

This week, the company launched its second-gen Bolt EV, which starts at just $28,995.

Here are the full specs:

  • 65 kWh LFP battery
  • 255 miles of range (EPA estimated)
  • Native NACS port for Tesla Supercharger accessibility without an adapter
  • Up to 150 kW charging speed
  • Bidirectional power of 9.6 kW
  • Front-Wheel-Drive
  • 10-80% charging in just 26 minutes
  • No Apple CarPlay or Android Auto
  • SuperCruise capable
  • 11.3″ touchscreen, 11″ digital gauge cluster
  • 16 cubic feet of cargo capacity
  • Other Trims
    • RS – $32,000
    • Base LT – $28,995
  • Deliveries begin in early 2026

Let’s be frank: Tesla fans are unlikely to bat an eye at other OEM offerings. However, first-time EV buyers might be looking for something more price accessible, so vehicles under $30,000 are where they will look first, at least for most people.

If money isn’t an option, people will consider spending a minimum of $37,000 on a new vehicle, especially an EV, as a first-time owner.

The Bolt EV could be something that does well, especially considering its one of only a handful of EVs that are priced at around $30,000 brand new in the U.S.

The others are:

  • Nissan Leaf S ($28,140)
  • Mini Cooper SE ($30,900)
  • Fiat 500e ($32,500)

While these cars are priced at around $30,000 and are affordable, they each offer minimal range ratings. The Nissan Leaf S and Fiat 500e have just 149 miles, while the Mini Cooper SE has 114 miles.

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Tesla Model S makes TIME’s list of Best Inventions

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla’s flagship sedan, the Model S, has officially been named one of TIME Magazine’s Best Inventions of the 2000s. It joins its sibling, the Model 3, which made the list in 2017.

The Model S is among the most crucial developments in the automotive industry in the last century.

Just as the Ford Model T made its mark on passenger transportation, becoming the first combustion engine vehicle to be successfully developed and marketed at a time when horse and buggy were the preferred mode of transportation, the Model S revolutionized things a step further.

Although it was not the first EV to be developed, the Tesla Model S was the EV that put EVs on the map. In 2012, TIME recognized the Model S as a piece of technology that could truly transform the car industry.

The publication wrote:

“This electric four-door sedan has the lines of a Jaguar, the ability to zip for 265 miles (426 km) on one charge—that’s the equivalent of 89 m.p.g. (2.6 L/100 km)—and touchscreen controls for everything from GPS navigation to adjusting the suspension.”

Looking back, TIME was right on. The Tesla Model S was truly a marvel for its time, and it, along with the OG 2008 Roadster, can be seen as the first two EVs to push electrification to the mainstream.

As TIME described this year, the Model S “proved to be a game-changing experience for electric vehicles,” and it ended up truly catalyzing things for not only the industry, but Tesla as well.

The Model S acted as a fundraiser of sorts for future vehicles, just as the Model X did. They paved the way for the Model 3 and Model Y to be developed and offered by Tesla at a price point that was more acceptable and accessible to the masses.

The Current State of the Tesla Model S

The Model S contributes to a very small percentage of Tesla sales. The company groups the Model S with the Model X and Cybertruck in its quarterly releases.

Last year, that grouping sold 85,133 total units, a small percentage of the 1.789 million cars it delivered to customers in 2024.

Things looked to be changing for the Model S and the Model X this year, as Tesla teased some improvements to the two cars with a refresh. However, it was very underwhelming and only included very minor changes.

Lucid CEO shades Tesla Model S: “Nothing has changed in 12 years now”

It appeared as if Tesla was planning to sunset the two cars, and while it has not taken that stance yet, it seems more likely that the company will begin taking any potential options to heart.

CEO Elon Musk said a few years ago that the two cars were only produced due to “sentimental reasons.”

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analysts are expecting the stock to go Plaid Mode soon

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Credit: Tesla Mania

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a few weeks of overwhelmingly bullish events, and it is inciting several analysts to change their price targets as they expect the stock to potentially go Plaid Mode in the near future.

Over the past week, Tesla has not only posted record deliveries for a single quarter, but it has also rolled out its most robust Full Self-Driving (Supervised) update in a year. The new version is more capable than ever before.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive

However, these are not the only things moving the company’s overall consensus on Wall Street toward a more bullish tone. There are, in fact, several things that Tesla has in the works that are inciting stronger expectations from analysts in New York.

TD Cowen

TD Cowen increased its price target for Tesla shares from $374 to $509 and gave the stock a ‘Buy’ rating, based on several factors.

Initially, Tesla’s positive deliveries report for Q3 set a bullish tone, which TD Cowen objectively evaluated and recognized as a strong sign. Additionally, the company’s firm stance on ensuring CEO Elon Musk is paid is a positive, as it keeps him with Tesla for more time.

Elon Musk: Trillionaire Tesla pay package is about influence, not wealth

Musk, who achieved each of the tranches on his last pay package, could obtain the elusive title as the world’s first-ever trillionaire, granted he helps Tesla grow considerably over the next decade.

Stifel

Stifel also increased its price target on Tesla from $440 to $483, citing the improvements Tesla made with its Full Self-Driving suite.

The rollout of FSD v14.1 has been a major step forward for the company. Although it’s in its early stages, Musk has said there will be improved versions coming within the next two weeks.

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Analysts at the firm also believe the company has a chance to push an Unsupervised version of FSD by the end of the year, but this seems like it’s out of the question currently.

It broke down the company’s FSD suite as worth $213 per share, while Robotaxi and Optimus had a $140 per share and $29 per share analysis, respectively.

Stifel sees Tesla as a major player not only in the self-driving industry but also in AI as a whole, which is something Musk has truly pushed for this year.

UBS

While many firms believe the company is on its way to doing great things and that stock prices will rise from their current level of roughly $430, other firms see it differently.

UBS said it still holds its ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla shares, but it did increase its price target from $215 to $247.

It said this week in a note to investors that it adjusted higher because of the positive deliveries and its potential value with AI and autonomy. However, it also remains cautious on the stock, especially considering the risks in Q4, as nobody truly knows how deliveries will stack up.

In the last month, Tesla shares are up 24 percent.

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