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SpaceX's workhorse Falcon 9 rocket expected to reach major launch milestone in 2020
Hours after SpaceX launched its 240th new Starlink satellite into orbit, Elon Musk took to Twitter to cryptically reveal that the company’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket could “reach triple digits this year” if everything goes according to plan.
Designed and built by SpaceX in the late 2000s, the Falcon 9 rocket launched for the first time in June 2010. Developed for the unfathomably low price of $300 million from clean-sheet design to first orbital launch, the original single-core Falcon 9 rocket – known as V1.0 – was about 48m (160 ft) tall, weighed 333 metric tons (735,000 lb) fully fueled, and was capable of launching almost 10.5 metric tons (23,000 lb) into low Earth orbit (LEO). Famously, when provided with Falcon 9’s basic specifications and characteristics, an independent NASA study estimated that the rocket’s development would have cost the agency anywhere from $1.7 billion to $4 billion to design and build.
NASA came to this conclusion in 2011, less than a year after Falcon 9’s first launch, and that the disconnect between the status quo held by NASA and the broader US spaceflight industry and what SpaceX tangibly achieved came to almost perfectly symbolize the rocket’s first six or so years of operations. Although SpaceX stumbled hard with two catastrophic rocket failures in June 2015 and September 2016, the company ultimately picked itself up, learned from those still-agonizing lessons, and has since shaped Falcon 9 into one of the most capable, reliable, reusable, and prolific launch vehicles ever flown. That latter characteristic – the sheer volume of launches Falcon 9 has come to represent – is what CEO Elon Musk was referring to earlier this week.
Specifically, after Wednesday’s flawless launch, Falcon 9 has now launched 80 times in its 9.5-year career, while Starlink V1 L3 marked the workhorse rocket’s 52nd consecutive success of 79 total. Impressively, while those 52 launches represent almost 65% of all of Falcon 9’s missions, SpaceX has dramatically improved the rocket’s reliability and availability over the last few years. In short, Falcon 9 has completed 52 consecutively successful launches in exactly 36 months (January 2017 to January 2020), meaning that nearly two-thirds of its lifetime launches have occurred in less than a third of the time Falcon 9 has been operational.
Put a different way, since the start of 2017, SpaceX has – on average – launched Falcon 9 more than four times (1.4 launches/month) as often as the rocket managed in its first 6.5 years of operations (1 launch every 2.7 months). Tweeting on January 29th, 2020 in response to an overview of the number of launches performed by each operational US rocket, CEO Elon Musk hinted that he believes “Falcon 9 will achieve triple digits” in 2020.
In other words, Musk thinks that SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket will be able to reach more than 100 lifetime launches by the end of 2020 — a feat that will require at least 20 additional Falcon 9 launches over the next 11 months. Speaking hours after SpaceX completed its third launch in January 2020 alone, it’s not hard to imagine – assuming, as Musk did, that “all goes well – that Falcon 9 will manage another 20 launches this year.
Averaged out, SpaceX has performed a launch every 9.7 days in January. Extrapolated to the rest of the year and assuming no improvement, SpaceX could theoretically perform as many as 37 launches in 2020. It’s worth noting, however, that SpaceX’s third launch of the month was ready for flight as early as January 21st but was delayed more than a week by bad weather – obviously out of the company’s control. Had weather permitted, SpaceX even had a fourth launch planned this month – a Starlink mission that is now expected sometime in early February.
In simple terms, it would take one or several major upsets to prevent Falcon 9 from reaching >100 lifetime launches later this year. Even if every single customer launch abruptly slips into 2021, SpaceX has still said that it has plans for 20-24 dedicated Starlink launches in 2020 alone, potentially singlehandedly carrying Falcon 9 over the 100-launch crest.
Falcon 9’s next launch – the fourth Starlink v1.0 mission – is currently scheduled no earlier than (NET) early February, followed by another Starlink mission later that month and Cargo Dragon’s final space station resupply mission NET March 2nd.
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Elon Musk revealed new information on Tesla’s AI5, previously known as Hardware 5, chip, for self-driving, which will be manufactured by both Samsung and TSMC.
The AI5 chip is Tesla’s next-generation hardware chip for its self-driving program, Optimus humanoid robots, and other AI-driven features in both vehicles and other applications. It will be the successor to the current AI4, previously known as Hardware 4, which is currently utilized in Tesla’s newest vehicles.
Elon Musk reveals Tesla’s HW5 release date, and that it won’t be called HW5
AI5 is specially optimized for Tesla use, as it will work alongside the company’s Neural Networks to focus on real-time inference to make safe and logical decisions during operation. It was first teased by Tesla in mid-2024 as Musk called it “an amazing design” and “an immense jump” from the current AI4 chip.
It will be roughly 4o times faster, have 8 times the raw compute, 9 times the memory capacity, 5 times the memory bandwidth, and 3 times the efficiency per watt.
It will be manufactured by both TSMC and Samsung at their Arizona and Texas fab locations, respectively.
Here’s what Musk revealed about the chip yesterday:
Different Versions
Samsung and TSMC will make slightly different versions of the AI5 chip, “simply because they translate designs to physical form differently.” However, Musk said the goal is that its AI software would work identically.
This was a real concern for some who are familiar with chip manufacturing, as Apple’s A9 “Chipgate” saga seemed to be echoing through Tesla.
Back in 2015, it was found that Apple’s A9 chips had different performances based on who manufactured them. TSMC and Samsung were both building the chips, but it was found that Samsung’s chips had shorter battery life than TSMC-fabricated versions.
Apple concluded that the variance was about 2-3 percent. However, Tesla will look to avoid this altogether.
Release and Implementation into Vehicles
Musk said that some samples will be available next year, and “maybe a small number of units” would equip the chip as well. However, high-volume production is only possible in 2027.
This means, based on Tesla’s own timeline for Cybercab production in Q2 2026, early iterations of the vehicle would rely on AI4. Many believe AI4 can be utilized for solved self-driving, but the power of subsequent versions, including AI5 and beyond, will be more capable.
AI6 and Beyond
AI6 will utilize the same fabs as AI5, but there would be a theoretical boost in performance by two times with this version.
AI6 could enter volume production by mid-2028. However, AI7, which Musk only briefly mentioned, “will need different fabs, as it is more adventurous.”
News
Tesla makes a splash at China’s Import Expo with Cybercab and Optimus
It appears that Elon Musk’s vision is something that still resonates with people.
Tesla’s fully autonomous Cybercab made its first appearance in the Asia-Pacific region at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai on November 5, becoming the centerpiece of an event that drew 12 of the world’s leading automakers.
The new model offers a glimpse into Tesla’s driverless ride-hailing future, and based on the reception of the event’s attendees, it appears that Elon Musk’s vision is something that still resonates with people.
Tesla showcases its driverless vision with the Cybercab
At this year’s expo, themed “Mobility, Infinite Possibilities,” Tesla’s futuristic two-seat Cybercab stood out as a showcase of complete autonomy. According to Tesla staff, the vehicle lacks both a steering wheel and pedals, relying entirely on Tesla’s cameras and an end-to-end neural network designed for full self-driving.
The Cybercab will ultimately serve in the company’s expanding Robotaxi fleet, a cornerstone of Elon Musk’s long-promised autonomous mobility network. During the event, a Tesla employee emphasized that the Cybercab’s model’s compact layout reflects real-world usage, as 92% of trips involve just one or two passengers, as noted in a Sina News report. Trips that require more passengers could easily be handled by the Model 3 and Model Y, which are both capable of seating four, or even five passengers.
Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot that is designed for both home and industrial use, was also present at the event. Similar to the Cybercab, Optimus also attracted quite a lot of attention from the event’s attendees.
Automakers reaffirm commitment to Chinese innovation
Other global automakers, including Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Honda, also displayed cutting-edge concept cars and intelligent systems, but few captured the same interest as Tesla’s bold showcase of its autonomy and robotics.
Beyond new models, this year’s CIIE highlighted a renewed focus on local innovation and collaboration in China’s rapidly evolving EV landscape. Executives from Volkswagen, Audi, and General Motors reaffirmed that their long-term strategies center on “in China, for China,” strengthening R&D operations and forming tech partnerships with domestic suppliers.
Elon Musk
Tesla gets big nod on Musk comp package from Charles Schwab
“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value.”
Tesla got a big nod of approval on CEO Elon Musk’s newly-proposed compensation package from Wall Street firm Charles Schwab after many shareholders believed the company was aiming to go against the new pay structure for its frontman.
Yesterday, we reported on many Tesla investors threatening to leave Charles Schwab as their broker after it was assumed the firm would vote against Musk’s pay package. The impression was that Schwab would utilize the same voting strategies as Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), which both said they would vote against the new compensation package.
However, Schwab reached out to TESLARATI directly yesterday to confirm that it had not made any statement on which way it would vote. It then confirmed to us that it would vote to support Musk’s pay package:
UPDATE: a Charles Schwab spokesperson has reached out to TESLARATI with the following statement:
“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value.… https://t.co/gG9iFhTgdJ
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 4, 2025
The statement to TESLARATI said:
“Schwab Asset Management’s approach to voting on proxy matters is thorough and deliberate. We utilize a structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value. We apply our own internal guidelines and do not rely on recommendations from Glass Lewis or ISS. In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”
Schwab also came out with a new statement just after that would be released to the public, stating that its delayed decision on the compensation package was due to its “structured process that focuses on protecting and promoting shareholder value.”
The firm uses a three-step program to determine its decision on a key vote like this one:
- board composition and quality
- actions a board has taken to drive strategy, deliver performance and manage relevant risks
- clarity and accessibility of reporting on key issues
It then said it applies its own internal guidelines and does not rely on recommendations from other firms, like Glass Lewis or ISS.
It continued:
“In accordance with this process, Schwab Asset Management intends to vote in favor of the 2025 CEO performance award proposal. We firmly believe that supporting this proposal aligns both management and shareholder interests, ensuring the best outcome for all parties involved.”
Charles Schwab then received kudos from the Tesla community on their decision to vote for Musk to receive this compensation package.
Tesla teases new AI5 chip that will revolutionize self-driving
Tesla makes a splash at China’s Import Expo with Cybercab and Optimus
Tesla gets big nod on Musk comp package from Charles Schwab
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