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SpaceX on track to become third most valuable private company in the world

SpaceX's valuation continues to skyrocket after a new funding round substantially increased the company's share price. (Richard Angle)

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SpaceX is on track to become the third most valuable private company in the world if it successfully raises a new round of funding.

First reported and confirmed by CNBC, SpaceX hopes to raise between $500 million and $1 billion via a new investment offering. The Series N round would ultimately value the company at $44 billion – second only to China’s Didi and Bytedance (known in the US for TikTok) – if SpaceX finds significant investor interest at the upgraded $270 share price. Based on the ~$3.4 billion SpaceX has raised over more than a dozen rounds in just the last several years, strong investor demand is all but guaranteed.

The confidence and interest of investors can be explained in large part by SpaceX’s spectacular success in the face of countless systemic and technological challenges, as well as its association with founder and Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Perhaps even more at odds with success than SpaceX’s near-term goals, Tesla’s meteoric rise and iron grip on the global consumer electric vehicle industry has unsurprisingly helped convince many that success is often just a matter of time for Musk’s calculated ventures.

Dozens of Starlink satellites streak through the night sky in this long exposure image. (Richard Angle)
Both SpaceX’s Starship and Starlink programs are in the midst of major, capital-intensive shifts in strategy. (NASASpaceflight – Nomadd)

Like several recent fundraising rounds, SpaceX is seeking investors willing to support the company’s long-term vision in the hopes that its Starship and Starlink programs will be as disruptive and revolutionary as they aim to be. CNBC reports that SpaceX is telling prospective investors that Starlink aims to become a major player in a range of industries with a potential global market of more than $1 trillion per year. That figure is almost certainly a best-case theoretical value assuming that SpaceX has completed a vast ~40,000-satellite Starlink constellation and is able to capture almost every single prospective customer.

It’s still within the realm of possibility, though. On its own, Starlink holds the potential to become one of the largest companies in the world – public or private – if SpaceX achieves every ambitious goal it’s set itself to. In that context, there’s a chance that acquiring a stake in SpaceX at a valuation of ~$44 billion will set investors up for unprecedented returns on the order of Tesla investors buying shares for $100-200 in the early 2010s.

60 Starlink v1.0 satellites stacked and ready for launch. (SpaceX)

Of course, that investment rationale doesn’t even touch on Starship, aside from the fact that Starship will be a necessity if SpaceX is to have any chance of launching and maintaining a constellation of tens of thousands of satellites. Beyond the Starship/Super Heavy launch vehicle’s integral role in future plans for Starlink, the next-generation rocket is arguably a much thornier technical challenge than Starlink while also offering far less return-on-investment (ROI) certainty. Relative to other industries, particularly those with demand for communications services, the global demand for commercial launch services is minuscule, representing just a few billion dollars per year.

Starship SN5. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
A senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship’s first orbital launch could still happen by the end of 2020. (SpaceX)

Even if Falcon 9 – let alone Starship – dramatically cuts the cost of access to orbit, there’s no guarantee beyond basic economic theory that lowering the barrier to entry will necessarily expand the market for launches. For a radical expansion in demand, entire new space-adjacent industries will have to be created given that the vast majority of modern demand comes from space-based communications companies.

SpaceX has known that this would be the case for at least half a decade, however, and is thus intelligently positioning Starlink as a primary investor focus as far as revenue and profit are concerned. Starlink would thus help SpaceX complete the Starship launch vehicle, which is far more focused on the company’s foundational goal of making humanity a multiplanetary species by enabling the creation of a self-sustaining city on Mars. Still, Starship will need to be revolutionarily affordable, reliable, and reusable for SpaceX to ever even dream of achieving that founding goal.

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In the process of tackling those technical challenges, Starship could very well expand the global space industry by one or several magnitudes, but it will remain a major wildcard up until the day it does.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla rival’s CEO makes shock suggestion to customers about Model Y

“The Model Y is a great car, and Tesla also announced a number of promotions yesterday, so you might want to consider it.”

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla rival Xiaomi is experiencing demand that is off-the-charts with its new YU7 crossover, which competes with the Model Y. The company’s CEO has stated that demand is truly outpacing what it can build, and that customers in limbo should consider the Model Y because “it’s a great car.”

The Xiaomi YU7 has already gained an incredible number of orders so far. Its launch a few months ago had consumers busting down doors to place an order before others, and demand has been so high that customers will wait, on average, between 56 and 59 weeks for delivery.

Tesla Model Y meets new competition from Xiaomi 

Within 18 hours, Xiaomi received about 240,000 orders, CarScoops reported. Some customers are truly interested in the vehicle, but cannot wait the extended period to take delivery as they might need a car now.

Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun said on social meida that there are other cars out there that would be suitable as a replacement to the YU7:

“If you need to buy a car quickly, other China-produced new energy vehicles are pretty good.”

He explicitly mentioned the Model Y, Xpeng G7, and Li Auto i8.

Regarding the Model Y, he said:

“The Model Y is a great car, and Tesla also announced a number of promotions yesterday, so you might want to consider it.”

The Model Y has been the best-selling car in the world over the past two years, and it still leads in many markets as the most sought-after EV. However, in China, there are so many formidable competitors that customers are seemingly going for whatever they can get to first.

Of course, a car is a car, but Tesla has gained a more notable reputation for its industry-leading tech and driver assistance systems, including City Autopilot, which has been used in China for a few months now.

Tesla China owners share first impressions of FSD-style “City Autopilot”

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Tesla offers tasty Supercharging incentive as Q3 push continues

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is offering a tasty Supercharging incentive on inventory Model 3 units in Canada as it continues to push sales in the third quarter.

In the United States, Tesla is preparing for the end of the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit. While it is offering a multitude of incentives in the U.S. to help push sales of its vehicles before the credit goes away, it is not saving the deals for Americans exclusively.

Yesterday, the company announced it is now offering Free Supercharging for life on all Model 3 inventory in Canada, a massive incentive for those who would use the vehicle as a daily driver:

The deal would normally only apply to Superchargers located in Canada, meaning if a Canadian drove over the border into the United States and Supercharged, they would have to pay for it.

However, Tesla also confirmed that the charging deal would extend to the U.S. Canadians will be able to drive across the U.S. and Supercharge for free for the life of the vehicle.

Free Supercharging is such a great perk because the money an owner saves on charging factors directly into what they are saving if they were to own a gas car. While Supercharging and home charging are, on average, cheaper than filling up with gas, the savings are not massive.

When Supercharging is free, it can save consumers hundreds of dollars per month, especially if they plan to use the Tesla for their daily commute. Some people could fill their gas cars up two times a week to get to work, spending $80-$100 every five days on gas.

Tesla has been using incentives like this to push vehicles into customers’ hands. Q3 could be one of the best three-month spans in recent memory with the push it is making.

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Tesla is preparing to take on autonomy’s final boss

India’s city streets are notorious for their complexity and congestion.

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Credit: Whole Mars Catalog/YouTube

If there is any sign that Tesla is now confident about its self-driving program, it would be this. As could be seen on Tesla’s Careers page, the company is now hiring Autopilot Vehicle Operators in Delhi and Mumbai, India. 

As far as real-world traffic is concerned, one could argue that India’s city streets are the final boss of autonomous driving systems due to their complexity and congestion.

Tesla job openings

As per Tesla in its recent job openings, Prototype Vehicle Operators will be responsible for driving an engineering vehicle for extended periods and conducting dynamic audio and camera data collection for testing and training purposes. In both its job listings for Mumbai and Delhi, Tesla noted that successful applicants will be gathering real-world data on the weekends and around the clock. 

Considering the job openings in India, Tesla seems to be intent on rolling out its advanced driver-assist systems like FSD in the country. This is quite interesting, as Tesla is not hiring Prototype Vehicle Operators in other territories that recently launched, such as the Philippines. Perhaps Tesla intends to tackle FSD’s final boss of sorts before rolling out FSD in other territories.

FSD’s rollout

Tesla’s autonomous driving program uses the company’s Full Self-Driving system, which is currently available on vehicles in North America and China. Tesla, however, has a more advanced version of FSD called Unsupervised FSD, which is currently being used in vehicles that are part of the Robotaxi pilot in Austin and the Bay Area.

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Elon Musk has also recently announced on X that Tesla will be releasing FSD V14 in the coming weeks. He also shared a number of improvements that can be expected from FSD V14. “The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less,” Musk wrote in his post. 

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