Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) is scheduled to post its second-quarter financial results later today after markets close. A live Q&A session would be held by Tesla’s management at 2:30 p.m. PT (5:30 p.m. ET), which would allow the company to discuss several key developments in its projects, as well as potential headwinds that investors could expect for the coming quarters.
Despite an ongoing chip shortage that has negatively affected the automotive industry, Tesla’s second-quarter vehicle deliveries and production were impressive. With this in mind, here is a brief outline of what TSLA investors could expect for Tesla’s Q2 2021 earnings results.
Analyst Ratings to Date
Wall Street currently has a consensus $686.94 12-month price target on TSLA stock, based on 38 analysts covering the company. As per The Deep Dive, eight of these analysts maintain a “Strong Buy” rating, six analysts have a “Buy” rating, 15 have a “Hold” rating, five have a “Sell” rating, and four have a “Strong Sell” rating on Tesla.
Price targets for Tesla shares vary among the analysts covering the company, though the Street high as of writing comes from Elazar Advisors, which maintain a price target of $1,471 per share. The lowest price target for TSLA stock stands at $67 from GLJ Research, though this figure seems more like a statement than a serious estimate considering Gordon Johnson’s record with Tesla.
Revenue Estimates
So far, 22 analysts have posted revenue estimates for Tesla’s Q2 2021 results. The mean revenue estimate among the 22 analysts is $11.299 billion, a numbest that’s been flat as of late. The highest estimates from the Street predict that Tesla would post revenue of $12.827 billion, while the lowest estimate points to the company posting $9.5 billion of revenue.
-->EBITDA Estimates
There are currently 11 analysts who have posted their second-quarter EBITDA estimates for Tesla. So far, the mean EBITDA estimate among these 11 analysts stands at $2 billion. Street high estimates currently sit at $2.5 billion in EBITDA, while the lowest estimate sits at $1.5 billion.
Earnings per Share
Analysts currently estimate that Tesla’s second-quarter earnings per share would be at $0.98 per share. So far, the Street high estimate for Tesla’s Q2 2021 EPS stands at $1.34 per share, while the lowest estimate stands at $0.62 per share.
Other Topics to Expect
Tesla is currently in the middle of its largest ramp to date, despite the challenging landscape in the automotive market today due to the chip shortage and other supply chain difficulties. With this in mind, Tesla executives may cover a number of pertinent topics for its near-term growth, such as the launch of Giga Berlin and Gigafactory Texas, the expansion of Gigafactory Shanghai, and the ramp of its 4680 battery cell production.
The progress of vehicles like the Tesla Semi and the Cybertruck would likely be discussed as well. Tesla may also discuss its progress with its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving suite, which recently switched to a vision-only approach that no longer uses radar data. Tesla’s Energy division is also moving forward despite a battery cell shortage, with the company recently launching a Virtual Power Plant project in California.
Disclaimer: I am long TSLA.
-->Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla Model 3 named New Zealand’s best passenger car of 2025
Tesla starts rolling out FSD V14.2.1 to AI4 vehicles including Cybertruck
