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Tesla FSD in China could add $2.3 billion in annual earnings by 2030: Bank of America

Credit: Tesla Tutorials/YouTube

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Bank of America seems to be seeing the potential of Full Self Driving (FSD) for Tesla’s future in China. In a note, the bank noted that FSD has the potential to boost the electric vehicle maker’s earnings by $2.3 billion by 2030 if the advanced driver-assist suite sees increased adoption among the company’s customers in China. 

Elon Musk’s unannounced trip to China this past weekend suggested that Tesla is laying the foundation for FSD’s release in the country. This was hinted at in Tesla’s partnership with internet giant Baidu for navigation and mapping data. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers also noted that Tesla has cleared data security and processing requirements in the country. 

FSD (Supervised) has so far only been released to the United States and Canada. Thus, the system’s most advanced features are only available to consumers in the two countries. In the US, FSD can be purchased outright for $8,000 or subscribed as a service for $99 per month. FSD is available for Chinese customers for RMB 64,000 ($8,800), but no subscriptions are available yet.

As noted by Bank of America, if Tesla releases FSD as a $99 service in China, and if a quarter of the estimated 1.6 million Tesla drivers in the country subscribe to FSD, it could provide Tesla with half a billion in annual revenue, as noted in an Insider report. 

“But with a gross margin likely to exceed 70% the earnings benefit could be ~$350 million. This number could increase meaningfully over time and, based on IHS projections for TSLA’s China auto sales, could be $2.3 billion in annual earnings by 2030 under the same assumptions,” Bank of America noted. 

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Bank of America noted that FSD may also generate zero earnings in China if Tesla gets pressured to release the system at no cost to consumers to give itself an edge against rivals in the country. Even in such a scenario, however, Bank of America noted that Tesla will still benefit from China’s FSD users as they would likely accelerate the system’s neural network training. 

“Competition is increasing from domestic manufacturers, and FSD will help TSLA catch up to, and potentially exceed, other EV offerings on the market. Combined with recent price cuts in China (by RMB 14,000, or ~$1,930), this could spur volume growth,” Bank of America noted. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla rolls out tasty new trade-in deal for a limited time

Tesla has rolled out a tasty new trade-in deal in the United Kingdom for a limited time, knocking just over the equivalent of $5,000 off of the price of a new or inventory Model 3 or Model Y.

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Tesla has rolled out a tasty new trade-in deal in the United Kingdom for a limited time, knocking just over the equivalent of $5,000 off of the price of a new or inventory Model 3 or Model Y.

The move, which could be a great way to incentivize sales in the United Kingdom, will take off £3,750 ($5,043) from the price of either of Tesla’s two most popular models, but it’s only valid until March 31, 2026. It requires the order and delivery to take place within the first quarter to qualify for the discount.

The bonus is designed to lower the cost barrier for switching to electric vehicles, stacking the £3,750 on top of the actual trade-in value of any eligible car — this includes petrol, diesel, or even an EV from another automaker. It applies to both new builds and inventory vehicles, including test drive and showroom models, but excludes certified pre-owned Teslas.

This promotion comes amid intensifying competition in the European EV sector. Chinese giant BYD, which snatched the EV sales title from Tesla for 2025, has been aggressively expanding in the European market, undercutting prices and capturing market share with its widely affordable models, including the Seagull.

Tesla’s strategy echoes similar incentives that have been offered in other markets at different times. With UK EV adoption hovering around 20 percent of new car sales in 2025, such deals could accelerate the transition, especially as government mandates phase out fossil fuels by 2035.

There have been enthusiastic reactions to the offer on X, the social media platform owned by Tesla CEO Elon Musk. These incentive programs are few and far between, and are never predictable in terms of availability. However, Tesla could be using this discount to get the year off to a good start.

For potential buyers, the deal underscores Tesla’s agility in a competitive landscape. As EV infrastructure improves and battery tech advances, incentives like this could tip the scales for those who might be more hesitant to make the jump.

With Q1 2026 deliveries ramping up and Tesla coming off a yearly decline in deliveries, the company is undoubtedly looking to push things forward and get the year off to a great start.

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Lucid and Uber team with Nuro for new robotaxi program with Gravity SUV

The plan currently is to launch it to the public in the Bay later this year.

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Credit: Lucid

Lucid and Uber are teaming up with Nuro to launch an autonomous robotaxi program utilizing the automaker’s Gravity SUV. The project will be unveiled at CES 2026, introducing an in-cabin rider experience completely designed by Uber, the world’s largest ride-sharing service.

Back in 2025, the partnership between the three companies was announced, aiming to launch a unique ride-sharing platform using over 20,000 Lucid vehicles equipped with the Nuro Driver technology. The vehicles are owned and operated by Uber.

The companies have already initiated some testing in the San Francisco Bay Area, which is a big step in the right direction for the project. The plan currently is to launch it to the public in the Bay later this year. Nuro will lead the testing using robotaxi engineering prototypes that are supervised by autonomous vehicle operators.

Currently, there are over 100 robotaxis in the Engineering Test Fleet.

The Gravity vehicles are fitted with a next-gen sensor array featuring high-res cameras, solid-state LiDAR sensors, and radars that will provide a 360-perception model, as well as a “purpose-built roof-mounted halo designed to maximize sensor visibility,” which is seen on top of the Gravity unit above.

The halo also has integrated LEDs to help riders more easily identify the correct vehicle by displaying their initials. The halo will also provide clear status updates from pickup through dropoff.

These units for the robotaxi program between the three companies will start being produced later this year at Lucid’s Arizona AMP-1 factory.

Uber chose the Lucid Gravity specifically due to its “unprecedented comfort” and its reputation, as it was named to Car and Driver’s 10 Best for 2026. But Uber is customizing some things for the Gravity so that it is specifically catered to robotaxi riders:

  • For the first time, Uber is designing the in-vehicle rider experience, which will include interactive screens with entertainment and climate control options, as well as support contacts and vehicle maneuver requests, like a request to pull over.
  • It will also have in-vehicle visualization, showing what the robotaxi sees and its path in real-time. This will be a nice transition for those who are skeptical about driverless vehicles, and will show what the vehicle and its sensors, LiDAR, and cameras see.
  • The Gravity is also a sizeable SUV, which will give riders space for themselves and their luggage.

This is the latest application of a ride-hailing platform that leans on autonomy for its operation, essentially phasing out the need for human drivers in various markets, starting with the Bay Area.

More companies are dipping their toes in the project, giving them the opportunity to establish some early momentum, as there are only a handful of companies that are currently operating this in the United States. Uber, Lucid, and Nuro aim to be the next, and initiating this program at this time is big for their chance at success.

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Tesla Cybercab test fleet expands in Austin and Bay Area

In total, the Robotaxi fleet is comprised of 139 total vehicles in both Austin and the Bay Area. The vast majority of these units are Model Y cars, but the Cybercab is the most recent addition to the fleet. 

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Credit: Adan Guajardo

Tesla has expanded its fleet of Cybercab test units in both Austin and the Bay Area of California, as the vehicle is heading toward the first production stages, hopefully early this year.

As the first few units were spotted in Austin late last year, Tesla is now operating seven total Cybercab units in testing, three of which were spotted over the weekend in Texas. Bay Area testing just started on January 3, with both units also being added to the fleet on Saturday and Sunday.

In total, there are seven Cybercabs now operating, according to Robotaxi Tracker, each with different license plates that have been observed over the course of the last several weeks; the first unit was spotted in Austin on December 18.

The expansion of the Cybercab test fleet is a slow but steady process that Tesla is taking to get the car on public roads ahead of its initial production stages.

CEO Elon Musk said last week that Tesla has already started some test production phases of the vehicle at Gigafactory Texas, which is located outside of Austin.

Tesla Cybercab tests are going on overdrive with production-ready units

However, it will likely be some time before Tesla actually adds it to the fleet for rides that are available to the public. Tesla plans to build it without a steering wheel or pedals, so the company will have to reach Level 5 autonomy at that point before customers can hail rides and take it to their destination.

In total, the Robotaxi fleet is comprised of 139 total vehicles in both Austin and the Bay Area. The vast majority of these units are Model Y cars, but the Cybercab is the most recent addition to the fleet.

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