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Tesla Q3 deliveries expected to exceed 440k as Benchmark holds $475 target

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

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(Credit: Tesla)

Benchmark has reiterated its “Buy” rating and $475 price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the company prepares to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries in the coming days. 

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

Benchmark’s estimates

Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that he expects Tesla’s deliveries to hit around 442,000 vehicles this Q3, which is under the 448,000-unit consensus but still well above the 384,000 vehicles that the company reported in Q2 2025. According to the analyst, some optimistic estimates for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are as high as mid-460,000s.

“Tesla is expected to report 3Q25 global production and deliveries on Thursday. We model 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s. A solid sequential uptick off 2Q25’s ~384,000, a measured setup into year-end given a choppy incentive/pricing backdrop,” the analyst wrote.

Benchmark is not the only firm that holds an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Q3 results. Deutsche Bank raised its own delivery forecast to 461,500, while Piper Sandler lifted its price target to $500 following a visit to China to assess market conditions. Cantor Fitzgerald also reiterated an “Overweight” rating and $355 price target for TSLA stock.

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Stock momentum meets competitive headwinds

Tesla’s anticipated Q3 results are boosted in part by the impending expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, which analysts believe has encouraged buyers to finalize vehicle purchases sooner, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla shares have surged nearly 30% in September, raising expectations for a strong delivery report. Benchmark warned, however, that some volatility may emerge in the coming quarter.

“With the stock up sharply into the print (roughly ~28-32% in September), its positioning raises the bar for an upside surprise to translate into further near-term strength; we also see risk of volatility if regional mix or ASPs underwhelm. We continue to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as certain EV incentives/credits tighten or roll off in select markets, potentially creating 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness,” the analyst wrote.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk slams ING Deustchland for denying TSLA shareholders ability to vote

Musk posted his criticism of the firm in a post on social media platform X. 

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk has slammed ING Deutschland after the bank confirmed that it was not offering a way for clients to vote in the upcoming 2025 Tesla Annual Shareholders Meeting.

Musk posted his criticism of the firm in a post on social media platform X. 

Musk’s criticism

Musk’s criticism of ING Deutschland came as a response to the bank’s comment to a Tesla shareholder. The shareholder, Maximilian Auer, noted that he has not received a response from the German bank’s customer support on how he could vote with his TSLA shares. In response to the Auer’s comment, ING Deutschland confirmed that it does not offer such a service.

“We do not offer the proxy voting process or the transmission of a control number. There is no legal obligation to do so for general meetings under foreign law,” ING Deutschland wrote in its post.

The firm’s reply received a lot of criticism from users on X, with many stating that such comments could drive clients away. Elon Musk later weighed in with some strong words of his own, stating that the bank is effectively denying shareholders the ability to vote. “Denying shareholders the ability to vote, as you are doing, certainly should be a crime,” Musk wrote in a post on X.

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Tesla’s annual meeting

Tesla’s upcoming annual meeting this year is particularly important as shareholders are voting on the approval of Elon Musk’s new CEO performance award. The pay package, which could pave the way for Musk to become a trillionaire, is also designed to increase his stake in the electric vehicle maker to 25%. This, Musk stated, should prevent activist shareholder advisory firms to disrupt the company.

Tesla highlighted the importance of this year’s annual meeting in a post on X. 

“We pay for outstanding performance – not for promises. In 2018, shareholders approved a groundbreaking CEO Performance Award that delivered extraordinary value. At our Annual Meeting on November 6, Tesla shareholders can vote on a pay-for-performance plan designed to drive our next era of transformational growth and value creation. Seven years ago, Elon Musk had to deliver billions to shareholders – now it’s trillions.

“This plan creates a path for Elon to secure voting rights and will retain him as a leader of the company for many years to come. But as explained below, Elon only receives voting rights after he has delivered economic value to you. Your vote matters. Vote ‘FOR’ Proposal 4!” Tesla wrote in its post on X. 

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Investor's Corner

Tesla price target raised to $490 at Canaccord on strong deliveries, energy growth

The revised target implies about 10% upside from Tesla’s last close at $443.21. 

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a significant boost from Canaccord Genuity this week, with analysts lifting their price target to $490 from $333 and reiterating a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.  

The revised target implies about 10% upside from Tesla’s last close at $443.21. 

New vehicle launches

Canaccord’s research across roughly 30 countries pointed to higher delivery volumes than anticipated, breaking the slowdown from earlier this year, as noted in an Investing.com report. Analysts noted that Tesla’s upcoming vehicle launches are expected to sustain sales momentum globally, even as U.S. tax credits phase out after the third quarter. The firm stated that new models will play a central role in broadening the company’s appeal across multiple markets and customer segments.

“On the EV side, we expect more new models soon – as promised by management. These should help global sales momentum – and potentially help alleviate any post-3Q cliff in the U.S. after EV tax credits go away. And these new vehicles should be interesting,” analyst George Gianarikas noted.

The analysts also highlighted Tesla’s progress in autonomous driving. Earlier this month, the company secured approval from Arizona regulators to begin road testing its robotaxi program in the Phoenix metro area. The pilot program includes vehicles equipped with safety drivers, positioning Tesla to advance its ride-hailing ambitions while gathering critical real-world data.

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Expanding energy storage demand

In addition to vehicle growth, Canaccord emphasized Tesla’s rapidly expanding energy storage business as a major contributor to future earnings. With utilities and hyperscale data centers increasing adoption of battery storage, Tesla is positioned to benefit from rising demand for grid stability and on-site power solutions. Elon Musk’s xAI has already tapped Tesla energy for its facilities, highlighting broader use cases for Tesla’s energy business.

“In energy storage, we expect an improvement in momentum. We, the world, need more power, and we need more storage for both utilities and data centers. Hyperscaler data centers are looking for power that is not fully tied to the grid: “behind the meter” or distributed generation solutions that supply power directly to an onsite property but are still typically connected to the main utility grid,” the analyst noted.

The analysts also pointed to Musk’s new compensation package, which ties ambitious performance milestones directly to long-term shareholder returns. They view his ongoing leadership and alignment with investor outcomes as key positives, while acknowledging environmental risks tied to large-scale energy projects.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla stock pushes another firm to boost price target with a Buy rating

Gianarikas raised Canaccord’s price target on Tesla shares up to $490 from $333, as the stock has been well above the latter number for some time.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has pushed yet another Wall Street firm to boost its price target, but this time, shares have also held their ‘Buy’ rating, as Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas made both adjustments.

Gianarikas raised Canaccord’s price target on Tesla shares up to $490 from $333, as the stock has been well above the latter number for some time.

Shares are currently trading at around $443, and have not traded at $333 since the beginning of September. Tesla shares have increased by over 34 percent in the past month.

A new note written to investors from Gianarikas breaks down each division of the company and how it will contribute to Tesla’s overall growth through the next several quarters. Investors are certainly concerned about the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, but it’s important to note that Tesla is much more than an automotive stock play.

Affordable Models

Gianarikas notes that Canaccord expects higher deliveries this quarter, in part due to the removal of the tax credit, which will occur today.

The firm expects Tesla to offset the loss of the tax credit with the introduction of new, affordable models, something the company has stated it is working on and plans to introduce during the second half of this year.

Now, with just a quarter left in 2025, it seems Tesla plans to launch those models within the next three months. Canaccord said:

“…on the EV side, we expect more new models soon – as promised by management. These should help global sales momentum – and potentially help alleviate any post-3Q cliff in the US after EV tax credits go away. And these new vehicles should be interesting.”

Tesla Energy

The company’s Energy division is one that consistently flies under the radar and gets little attention. With an increase in data centers and the need for more power, Canaccord thinks this is where Tesla could see some true growth over the next few years:

“Fully using grid resources not only takes significant time and effort but is increasingly met with resistance from utilities and consumers as they express concerns about increasing power prices and impact on grid resiliency. Elon Musk himself used behind-the-meter solutions like methane gas turbines and generators in Memphis to build his xAI facility – although next time he should be careful not to pollute the environment when he does it. Energy storage will play a material role in behind-the-meter solutions.”

Elon Musk’s Comp Package

Locking up Musk for the next several years was a crucial part of keeping Tesla as a bullish stock play for many firms.

The new comp plan for CEO Elon Musk will benefit investors as well as the Tesla frontman, and although these tranches are challenging, they appear to be well within the realm of possibility.

“Those targets, if achieved, promise great returns for Tesla shareholders. Embedded in the upcoming shareholder vote is an opportunity for Tesla shareholders to potentially invest in xAI as well. Given Mr. Musk’s singular business achievements, we see his commitment to the company and bold targets as – mostly -a positive. $400B in EBITDA. Yowza. That’s one of Mr. Musk’s operational targets over a 10-year period and compares to ~$15B TTM as of 2Q25. Mr. Musk is who he is, and it is hard to underestimate him. But, a lot needs to go right for him to achieve it.”

Price Target and Rating

Gianarikas says there was a potential for a stock downgrade while mulling what forecast to put on Tesla shares, especially as the firm admits it “still struggles” with the valuation. Near-term, however, there are more catalysts than drawbacks.

With the affordable EVs presumably on the way, as well as plenty of momentum in Robotaxi and Optimus projects, Tesla is sitting in a good spot, especially from an investor perspective, Canaccord believes.

It ups its price target to $490 and reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating.

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