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Tesla Gigafactory 3 seems to be preparing for the Model Y production ramp

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There is a lot at stake riding in Tesla’s Gigafactory 3, the first facility of the electric car maker that would be established and operated in a foreign country. Giga 3 is set to be the first of Tesla’s next-generation Gigafactories as well, since the facility would be capable of producing both battery packs and electric cars on-site. 

Tesla actually lucked out with Gigafactory 3, as it was able to secure a permit from the Chinese government to operate the facility without a local partner earlier this year. Tesla’s business license for the facility, which would be built in Shanghai, was granted to Tesla Motors Hong Kong Co., LLC, the electric car maker’s HK division, last May. The company also registered the capital for the Shanghai site at 100 million yuan, which corresponds to about $15.8 million. Interestingly, the initial filings of the company were absent of any references to battery production and electric car manufacturing.

That is, until now. A recent report from Sina Finance has noted that Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. recently registered a capital increase for its upcoming facility. The increase was significant, with the electric car maker now listing a capital of 4.67 billion yuan, which corresponds to about $680 million. Tesla Shanghai also revised its filings for the facility, mentioning references to battery separators, battery management systems, as well as electric car components such as powertrains and other electronic devices that are utilized in the company’s vehicles. 

Tesla’s grand opening of its Changsha, China store. [Credit: @vincent13031925/Twitter]

Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 would likely rival Gigafactory 1 in size once it’s completed, especially considering that the Shanghai-based facility will be producing both batteries and electric cars. Despite this, Elon Musk noted in the company’s Q2 2018 earnings call that Giga 3 would likely not cost as much as Gigafactory 1, which is expected to cost up to $5 billion once it’s complete. Musk’s initial estimate for Giga 3 is $2 billion, on account of optimizations that it learned from the Model 3 ramp.

“With respect to Gigafactory CapEx, I think we learned a tremendous amount with Gigafactory 1, and we’re confident that we can do the Gigafactory in China for a lot less. I think it’s probably closer to — this is just a guess, but probably closer to $2 billion, and that should be at a higher — and that would be sort of at the 250,000-vehicle per year rate. So I think we can be a lot more efficient with CapEx, and that would include at least a factory module and pack production, body shop, paint shop, and general assembly. Might even be less than that, but that’s about the right number for that,” Musk said.

A reporter from Beijing Business Daily noted that with the revised capital, around 30% of the funds are now ready for Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory. Perhaps even more notable were reports that the Shanghai government is assisting Tesla to obtain loans from Chinese banks to fund the construction of the facility.

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It should be noted that Gigafactory 3 does not need to be fully completed before the facility could start building battery packs and electric cars. Gigafactory 1, for example, is less than 30% complete, but it is already supporting the demand for battery packs and powertrains from the Model 3 production ramp. The Model 3’s current production pace is no joke, either, as the company is reportedly on track to building at least 50,000 Model 3 this quarter.

An artist’s render of the Tesla Model Y. [Credit: Miguel Massé/Twitter]

With this in mind, Tesla only needs to get critical portions of Gigafactory 3 working before the facility could start producing vehicles. Such a strategy actually taps into a particularly impressive expertise of the country’s workforce, considering that China’s builders are proficient in quickly constructing modular structures. This type of construction was showcased by the country’s workforce when it completed the construction of a 57-story skyscraper in just 19 days back in 2015. If Tesla opts to adopt a similar construction method for Gigafactory 3, the facility could come alive well in time for the production of the company’s next big vehicle — the Tesla Model Y.

Elon Musk has noted that the Model Y would likely be built sometime next year. Being a crossover SUV, the Model Y would compete in one of the auto industry’s most competitive markets. The Model Y is expected to have a demand of up to 1 million vehicles per year, making it even more popular than the Model 3. Tesla has been quite tight-lipped about the facility where the Model Y would be constructed. Considering Tesla’s updates with Gigafactory 3, as well as Elon Musk’s past statements about the Model Y being built in China; there is a good chance that Giga 3’s vehicle production lines would likely be designed for the electric crossover.

Back in July, Tesla noted that it expects Gigafactory 3’s vehicle production to start roughly two years after construction begins. In true Tesla fashion, the company intends to ramp the facility’s production rate to 500,000 vehicles per year within 2-3 years. This aggressive timeline has been met by doubts in the United States, with Consumer Edge Research senior auto analyst James Albertine dubbing the company’s targets as “not feasible.” Fortunately for Tesla, its is a company that operates best when it is proving its skeptics wrong.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

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It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

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It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

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We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

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Elon Musk

Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

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tesla showroom
Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

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Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

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“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

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Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk issues dire warning to Tesla (TSLA) shorts

This time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk has issued a dire warning to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) short sellers. If they do not exit their position by the time Tesla attains autonomy, pain will follow. 

Musk has shared similar statements in the past, but this time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

Musk’s short warning

The Tesla CEO’s recent statement came as a response to Tesla retail shareholder and advocate Alexandra Merz, who shared a list of the electric vehicle maker’s short-sellers. These include MUFG Securities EMEA, Jane Street Group, Clean Energy Transition LLP, and Citadel Advisors, among others. As per the retail investor, some of Tesla’s short-sellers, such as Banque Pictet, have been decreasing their short position as of late.

In his reply, Elon Musk stated that Tesla shorts are on borrowed time. As per the CEO, TSLA shorts would be wise to exit their short position before autonomy is reached. If they do not, they will be wiped out. “If they don’t exit their short position before Tesla reaches autonomy at scale, they will be obliterated,” Musk wrote in his post.

Tesla’s autonomous program

Tesla short sellers typically disregard the progress that the company is making on its FSD program, which is currently being used in pilot ride-hailing programs in Austin and the Bay Area. While Tesla has taken longer than expected to attain autonomy, and while Musk himself admits to becoming the boy who cried FSD for years, autonomy does seem to be at hand this year. Tesla’s Unsupervised FSD is being used in Robotaxi services, and FSD V14 is poised to be released soon as well.

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Elon Musk highlighted this in a response to X user Ian N, who noted that numerous automakers such as Audi, BMW, Fiat-Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Toyota have all promised and failed in delivering autonomous systems for their vehicles. Thus, Tesla might be very late in the release of its autonomous features, but the company is by far the only automaker that is delivering on its promises today. Musk agreed with this notion, posting that “I might be late, but I always deliver in the end.”

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