Investor's Corner
Tesla starts setting the stage for the $35k base Model 3’s production ramp
Tesla’s production ramp for the Model 3 has not been easy for the company. Since starting the production of the electric sedan last year, the Model 3 ramp has been beset by multiple challenges, including bottlenecks in both the Fremont factory and Gigafactory 1. That said, Tesla appears to have hit its stride in manufacturing the electric sedan in Q3.
The company’s production and delivery numbers for the quarter are yet to be announced, but estimates, including those from Tesla’s staunchest critics from Wall Street, are high that the company has achieved its target of manufacturing and delivering more than 50,000 Model 3 in the third quarter. And this is despite the company only producing three variants of the electric sedan — the Long Range RWD, Dual Motor AWD, and Dual Motor Performance Model 3. The variant of the electric car that is designed to be a true disruptor in the auto industry — the $35,000 Standard trim Model 3 — is yet to enter production.
The absence of the $35,000 base trim Model 3 in Tesla’s lineup is one of the remaining bear thesis against the company. Some of Tesla’s more aggressive short-sellers even insist that the $35,000 Model 3 is a myth. Kelly Blue Book analyst Rebecca Lindland, who canceled her Model 3 reservation due to delays in the electric car’s production, previously noted to Forbes that she is not sure Tesla will ever make the vehicle.
“I’m not sure there will ever be any $35,000 cars. I think there’s a chance the company will eventually say they’re canceling that version because there wasn’t as much customer interest, that nobody wanted it,” she said.
Elon Musk begs to differ. Earlier this year, Musk noted that Tesla would need to hit its stride producing the higher-margin Model 3 variants before it can begin manufacturing the $35,000 Standard trim Model 3. Musk has since provided brief updates on the vehicle, such as its estimated start of production in Q1 2019, as well as an AWD Dual Motor option for the electric car. Tesla’s head of investor relations Martin Viecha provided an estimated timeline for the electric car’s production while facilitating a tour of Gigafactory 1 as well, stating that the $35,000 base Model 3’s would ramp “in the next eight months,” translating to an April or May rollout.
Considering recent updates from Tesla’s Model 3 ramp, it appears that the electric car maker is starting to make preparations for the vehicle’s production. Gigafactory 1, for example, is set to receive upgrades from Panasonic that would enable it to produce more battery cells. Yoshio Ito, head of Panasonic’s automotive business, noted that three new battery cell production lines would be completed sooner than the Japanese company’s initial “end-of-2018” estimate. Apart from this, Tesla is also receiving upgrades in the form of new Grohmann machines that are expected to be installed at the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4. The new Grohmann machines are designed to make module production in Gigafactory 1 three times faster and three times cheaper.
In the final weekend of Q3, updates from Elon Musk and the Tesla community suggested that the production ramp for the Model 3 is going even further. In an email to employees, Musk noted that production of Model 3 drive units had reached a rate of 10,000 per week. Reservation holders in forums such as the r/TeslaMotors subreddit have also noted that the estimated timeline for the $35,000 base Model 3 has remained consistent over the past months. As of October 1, reservation holders are given a 3-6 month timeline for the production of the $35,000 electric sedan.
The Tesla Model 3 is a critical part of Elon Musk’s Master Plan, which involved creating a mass-market car that is a preferable alternative to comparably-priced fossil fuel-powered vehicles. At $35,000, the Standard trim Model 3 would be in the same price range as some of America’s most ubiquitous cars like the Toyota Camry, whose top-of-the-line XSE V6 trim is priced at $34,950. Thus, if Tesla plays its cards right, the vehicle could become not just a top-selling electric car — it could very well be a fossil fuel car killer.
In true Tesla fashion, even the $35,000 Standard trim Model 3 is packed with features that are characteristic of the company. The base Model 3 has an estimated range of 220 miles per charge, a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds, and a top speed of 130 mph. Just like Tesla’s less affordable vehicles, the base Model 3 is fitted advanced safety features, including eight cameras, forward radar, and 12 ultrasonic sensors enabling active safety technologies including collision avoidance and automatic emergency braking. Six front row airbags and two side curtain airbags are also fitted on the entry-level vehicle.
Investor's Corner
Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements
Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.
Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.
Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.
Building confidence
In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.
Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.
Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious
While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.
“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.
Investor's Corner
Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.
Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025.
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.
On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025
During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report.
“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.
A bright spot in Tesla Energy
Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.
“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated.
Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.
JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.
Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.
Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025
The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.
The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”
JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.
There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.
JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.
Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.
Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.
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