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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says Starship (BFS) hop tests could start in early 2019

Starship... or BFWTF? :) (NASASpaceflight /u/bocachicagal)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has taken to Twitter to share an unexpected wealth of detail about the “radical” and largely unpublicized design changes the company’s Starship and Super Heavy (BFS & BFB) have undergone in 2018.

Beside information ranging from discussions of metallurgy to overall design philosophy and comparisons, the eccentric CEO also offered the most concrete target yet for the beginning of prototype spaceship (BFS/Starship) hop tests in South Texas – “March/April [2019]”.

On one hand, this expeditious new testing schedule – acknowledged by Musk himself to be “much sooner than expected” – is a thrilling prospect, given that it implies that a nearly full-scale prototype of Starship (or something vaguely approximating the spacecraft) could take its first baby steps into the air as early as the first quarter of 2019. On the other hand, however, this is an almost bafflingly large schedule change considering that SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell asserted that a prototype of BFS (now Starship) could begin “hopping” by late 2019, speaking in September 2018.

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Schedules (especially aerospace program schedules) do certainly tend to be chaotic and jumpy, but it’s almost inconceivable that any given project – regardless of the scope or scale – could wind up reaching completion nine months earlier than previously forecasted without suffering one or several dramatic compromises, typically involving lower-fidelity testing and prototypes or watered-down deliverables. It’s unclear if BFR has suffered the same fate, but – to put it lightly – the South Texas sight greeting the eyes of close followers of SpaceX’s BFR program is downright unbelievable.

BFWhat?!

Given the very recent and conspicuous additions of triangular appendages that look precisely like rudimentary fins and an obvious nose cone assembly, the only possible conclusion to draw from photos of SpaceX’s Boca Chica facilities taken in the last week or two is that the company (and/or contractors) are busy building something related to Starship. At least in these early stages, the… thing being built could be best described as what might come to mind if you asked an imaginative kid to build a full-scale sculpture of Tintin’s spaceship on a budget of maybe $500,000.

More likely than not, this could be a case of things being more than they seem. To most, it may almost look like an elaborate prank, but that assumes that we know the full story and have a decent working understanding of aerospace prototyping. For the vast majority of us, that is simply not the case – what looks like a spade is probably not a spade.

At the end of the day, the most basic of observations – that this purported ‘Starship prototype’ will begin hop tests with extraordinarily powerful Raptor engines installed as few as three months from now – suggest that this spooky metal contraption will be used to conduct the most basic of Starship tests. As such, it will probably never travel much faster than Falcon 9’s Grasshopper and F9R predecessors, which tended to gently accelerate from the ground to as high as a kilometer or two before slowly heading back down for a powered landing.

 

Given that SpaceX has already refined this complex and challenging task to a reliable science with Falcon 9 and Merlin 1D, it’s unclear why a very similar test campaign would be of serious value to the company without simultaneously testing full-fidelity control surfaces (fins), exotic new stainless steel propellant tank technologies, and more. Perhaps SpaceX just really wants to ensure that Starship will be capable of landing and taking off from an unprepared and angled surface of the type it could (will?) experience on Mars. Maybe the company simply wants to have a bare-minimum flying platform capable of testing and refining multi-engine configurations of Raptor.

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Taken by NSF user bocachicagal, this photo shows a small glimpse of a panel-less portion of one of the odd shiny structures popping up in Boca Chica. It certainly does not look like the sort of thing that could stand up to high-speed intra-atmosphere flights. (bocachicagal – NASASpaceflight)

All that can be said for sure at the moment is that the public simply does not have the full story to explain the moderately shocking activity going on in Boca Chica. Musk did state that he would provide another technical update on the status of Starship and the BFR program as a whole in the first half of 2019, but only after the first Starship hopper flights have begun. It would seem that those on the sidelines will simply have to wallow in confusion and wild speculation for another ~3-4 months at minimum, hopefully only going moderately insane as a result.

In the meantime, copious thanks are owed to NASASpaceflight members bocachicagal and Nomadd for their relentless and thorough coverage of SpaceX’s activities in the obscure far south of the Texan coast, as well as their courteous permission for media outlets like Teslarati to republish their photos. Cheers!


For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk reiterates his most optimistic prediction yet with “UHI” forecast

Despite his polarizing nature, Elon Musk is, at his core, an optimist.

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Joel Kowsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Despite his polarizing nature, Elon Musk is, at his core, an optimist. If he were not one, he would never have founded Tesla or SpaceX, or pursued projects such as Neuralink or xAI.

Musk’s optimism was on full display on social media platform X recently, when he shared what could very well be his most optimistic prediction yet.

Robots and humans

The Tesla CEO recently responded to a post from David Scott Patterson, who estimated that all jobs will be replaced by AI and robots easily by 2030. In his post, Patterson noted that if robots are sold at the same rate as vehicles, it could result in an output of 320 million robots per year. 

Musk responded that eventually, intelligent humanoid robots will far exceed the population of humans, and “there will be many robots in industry for every human to provide products & services.” 

Musk is already taking steps to achieve such a future. Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is expected to see its first “legion” produced this 2025. During an All-Hands meeting earlier this year, Musk also hinted to Tesla employees that the company will try to produce about 50,000 Optimus robots next year. 

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Universal High Income (UHI)

Musk has shared similar sentiments in the past, so it was no surprise that some X users asked the CEO how humans could sustain their lives when robots replace working individuals. To this, Musk responded that a Universal High Income (UHI) would be implemented, which should provide people with the best medical care, food, and transport available.

“There will be universal high income (not merely basic income). Everyone will have the best medical care, food, home, transport and everything else. Sustainable abundance,” Musk wrote in his post

Musk’s comment about sustainable abundance seems to be a prevalent theme in his recent optimistic comments. During Tesla’s second quarter earnings call, for example, Musk hinted that his Master Plan Part Four will describe a path towards sustainable abundance in a post-autonomy world.

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Tesla FSD upcoming Australia release seemingly teased bv media

The videos showed FSD navigating lane changes, slowing for traffic, and handling curves without driver input.

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Credit: Tesla AI/X

New videos from Australia have fueled speculations that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) will be rolling out in the country soon. 

The videos, which were shared widely on social media, showed Teslas navigating lane changes, slowing for traffic, and handling curves without driver input, but still with active supervision.

New FSD footage

One video, posted by lifestyle outlet Man of Many and narrated by journalist Ben McKimm, highlighted how quickly the system responded to real-world conditions. McKimm seemed quite impressed with FSD’s performance, stating that the vehicle performs maneuvers much like a human driver. 

Another video, which featured reporter Danielle Collin, featured a Tesla operating on public roads using its FSD (Supervised) system. Similar to McKimm, Collin seemed very impressed with the capabilities of FSD, as the vehicle was reacting to things like stop signs on its own. 

No regulatory barriers

This isn’t the first time the software has been seen on Australian roads. Earlier this year, Tesla released a clip of a Model 3 driving through Melbourne’s central business district with no visible driver input. A second video later surfaced from Sydney, reinforcing expectations that Australia could be among the first right-hand-drive markets to receive access.

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According to Tesla’s Australian website, FSD (Supervised) uses 360-degree camera visibility to manage blind spots, execute lane changes, and maintain awareness of surrounding vehicles, cyclists, and motorcycles. While Tesla notes that constant human oversight is still required for now, FSD is designed to handle city intersections, multi-lane highways, and traffic signals.

In an earlier statement to news.com.au, Tesla country director Thom Drew previously confirmed there were “no blockers in Australia” for a supervised release of FSD, similar to North America. “It’s something our business is working on releasing,” Drew said, though he did not provide a timeline.

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Tesla Careers website is hinting at preparations for a monster Q3 and Q4

Tesla has gone live with several dozen openings for Delivery Vehicle Prep specialists on its Careers website.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla seems to be preparing for a monster Q3 and Q4 2025. This was, at least, hinted at by some job openings that have been observed by industry watchers in Tesla’s Careers website.

Job listing trends

As observed by avid Tesla watchers on social media, the electric vehicle maker has gone live with several dozen openings for Delivery Vehicle Prep specialists on its Careers website. In North America alone, about 69 job openings for the position have been listed by the company. 

The role of a Delivery Vehicle Prep specialist is notable, as they help with vehicle preparation, vehicle inspections, effective lot management, and active collaboration with your team to enhance pre-delivery processes. Considering that the position ensures that cars are handed over to customers in the best way possible, it seems futile for Tesla to ramp up its hiring for the post if it is not expecting large volumes of deliveries in the coming months.

Increasing demand

Tesla’s vehicle sales in the first and second quarters of the year have been quite throttled due to a variety of factors, from the changeover to the Model Y in the Fremont Factory, Gigafactory Shanghai, Gigafactory Berlin, and Gigafactory Texas, to the rise of anti-Tesla sentiment due to CEO Elon Musk’s political activities earlier this year. These factors are no longer affecting Tesla this Q3, and the company tends to deliver a notable amount of its vehicles in the fourth quarter. 

With this in mind, it would appear that Tesla is indeed preparing for a massive uptick in its vehicle deliveries for the remaining months of the year. The company, after all, would likely be quite busy, especially with the upcoming introduction of the new Model 3 Performance and the rollout of Tesla China’s recently unveiled Model Y L. Expectations are also high that Tesla is preparing to roll out more affordable variants of its vehicles later this year.

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