Connect with us
Crew Dragon is lifted off the deck of SpaceX recovery vessel GO Searcher after safely arriving at Port Canaveral, March 10th. (NASA) Crew Dragon is lifted off the deck of SpaceX recovery vessel GO Searcher after safely arriving at Port Canaveral, March 10th. (NASA)

SpaceX

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says Crew Dragon reusability a “major improvement”

Crew Dragon is lifted off the deck of SpaceX recovery vessel GO Searcher after safely arriving at Port Canaveral, March 10th. (NASA)

Published

on

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company’s next-generation Crew Dragon spacecraft is a “major improvement” over its Cargo Dragon (Dragon 1) predecessors after successfully demonstrating a number of reusability-focused upgrades during the vehicle’s launch and splashdown debut.

Even as SpaceX’s longer-term development groups aim to make the company’s Dragon spacecraft all but redundant with Starship and Super Heavy, the apparent success of Crew Dragon’s upgrades will be valuable for years to come. Ultimately, “major” improvements in reusability will allow SpaceX to reuse Dragon 2 far more efficiently, improving availability for both its Crew and Cargo programs and potentially cutting the operating cost and longevity of each spacecraft as the company begins to transition its workforce to BFR.

Although the question cuing Musk was non-specific, the SpaceX CEO immediately focused his reply on whether or not unspecified “upgrades” to Crew Dragon were able to keep sensitive hardware dry. SpaceX’s Cargo Dragon program has roughly seven years of experience with launching, recovering, and refurbishing orbital-class spacecraft after ocean landings and the subsequent seawater immersion. The fact that the Dragon 2 concept was almost immediately demonstrated with propulsive land-landing capabilities speaks to just how annoying a problem it was to try to keep an orbital spacecraft easily reusable while still relying upon water landing for recovery.

As it turns out, many of the engineering solutions best known to ensure structural and thermal integrity of a spacecraft on-orbit are often at ends with the separate task of ensuring that the same spacecraft remains thoroughly water-proof through launch, reentry, and splashdown. Many of these problems center around the materials that are best for each solution. The sorts of polymers (i.e. plastics) best known for their roles in sealing certain things off from other things are frequently very pliable, soft, and flexible. The orbital environment is extremely unfriendly to polymers like this, where constant and extreme thermal cycling couples with vacuum, radiation, and something known as atomic (or free radical) oxygen to rapidly turn pliable polymers brittle.

Different sealants and plastic or rubber gaskets are visible all over Crew Dragon, ranging from the red gasket around the nose cone area to white lines filling in gaps between the spacecraft’s dozens of different external panels.

A ‘brittle seal’, as many will know, is an oxymoron. Sealants that become brittle in space often scarcely behave like sealants at all after weeks (or months) in orbit, meaning that their ability to prevent moisture intrusion can be dramatically deteriorated. From an engineering perspective, Crew Dragon’s many seals and gaskets are first and foremost intended to protect the spacecraft from the elements while still on Earth, where static fire attempts and weather during launch windows could require it to weather extreme heat, cold, rainstorms, ice, and high winds. SpaceX engineers appear to have managed to solve the latter problem while also accounting for a need to protect the spacecraft after launch for the sake of easier refurbishment.

However, sealing the spacecraft from the elements – both before and after launch – is just one of many challenges for safe operations and efficient reusability. Up next, as Musk notes, is protecting Crew Dragon’s 16 Draco maneuvering thrusters and 8 SuperDraco abort thrusters from water damage, as well as sealing off vulnerable avionics for reuse. With respect to avionics, Musk is very likely referring to the electronics and sensing equipment housed under Dragon 2’s retractable nose cone, a new feature for SpaceX.

SpaceX's 'DragonFly' prototype was briefly used to test Dragon 2's propulsive landing capabilities before the program was cancelled. Most of the technology remains a part of Crew Dragon, however... (SpaceX)
Crew Dragon featured intriguing panels covering its Super Draco engine nozzles, presumably meant to prevent water from entering. (NASA)

Due to the fact that Crew Dragon’s SuperDraco abort thrusters are only meant to be used in a namesake abort scenario, SpaceX appears to have chosen to implement a more permanent solution for protecting them from water intrusion after splashdown. The challenge of panels like those covering the SuperDracos is that they need to be easily destructible to prevent a cascade of high-velocity debris from wreaking havoc in the event of ignition. They also need to survive the conditions on orbit, make it through the heat and buffeting of reentry and descent, and survive the initial impact with the ocean surface, all while keeping SuperDracos dry.

As such, it should come as no surprise to find CEO Elon Musk praising the engineering behind the presumably successful solutions to these complex problems, although credit is also due to the technicians that turned CAD files, test results, and aspirations into practical, functioning hardware.

An overview of the expected modifications needed to turn a Crew Dragon into a Cargo Dragon 2. (NASA OIG)

If Crew Dragon can achieve a similar level of success after spending more like half a year in space during operational crew transport missions, the spacecraft’s reusability improvements will end up benefiting both Crew Dragon and Cargo Dragon 2. The Cargo variant of Dragon 2 is designed as a relatively minor modification to flight-proven Crew Dragon capsules and slightly-upgraded trunks and could debut as early as mid-2020 after Cargo Dragon 1 enters retirement.

Check out Teslarati’s Marketplace! We offer Tesla accessories, including for the Tesla Cybertruck and Tesla Model 3.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Advertisement
Comments

Elon Musk

SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff

Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.

Published

on

By

Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.

The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.

Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.

Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry

None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.

The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.

Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.

Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says

Published

on

Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.

The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.

Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.

There are plenty of ways the company can do this:

Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts

SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.

SpaceX is charging Anthropic massive money for its compute

High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity

The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.

Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.

Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.

High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online

GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.

Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications

Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.

These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.

Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages

SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.

Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.

SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.

Continue Reading

Elon Musk

Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking

Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.

Published

on

By

Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.

On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.

Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.

The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.

For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.

Continue Reading