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DeepSpace: Firefly’s Alpha rocket to get a massive upgrade with ion thruster boost stage ⚡ ?

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Eric Ralph · June 18th, 2019

Welcome to the latest edition of DeepSpace! Each week, Teslarati space reporter Eric Ralph hand-crafts this newsletter to give you a breakdown of what’s happening in the space industry and what you need to know. To receive this newsletter (and others) directly and join our member-only Slack group, give us a 3-month trial for just $5.


Although the company quietly teased the concept for the first time several months ago, Firefly has released a detailed update on its Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), an ambitious spacecraft meant to complement its Alpha and Beta launch vehicles. If Firefly can deliver on the independent spacecraft’s technical promises, the combination of Alpha (~$15M) and OTV could help usher in a new era of small, high-performance satellites launched on small, high-performance rockets.

In fact, Rocket Lab – currently the world’s only truly commercial smallsat launch provider – has already demonstrated the power of this new paradigm, albeit on a smaller scale. After just one failed attempt, the first successful orbital launch of the company’s Electron rocket also marked the surprise debut of a tiny third stage used to circularize the payload’s orbit. After five successful uses in orbit, Rocket Lab has taken its third stage a step further, adding redundant avionics, solar arrays, and more to effectively create an independent spacecraft/satellite bus called Photon. By all appearances, Firefly’s OTV is much larger than Photon but is functionally quite similar. By taking advantage of Alpha’s significant performance benefits compared to Electron, Firefly has designed a third stage/spacecraft capable of delivering hundreds of kilograms to geostationary orbit, the Moon, and (perhaps) beyond.

Changing the delta V game

  • Generally speaking, OTV is quite small. According to Firefly’s Payload User’s Guide, the spacecraft will weigh just 130 kg (285 lb) dry and will carry perhaps 30-70 kg of xenon fuel for its electric ion thrusters. This is a critical differentiator relative to Rocket Lab’s Photon and kick stage, which rely on the inefficient (but simple and reliable) Curie chemical rocket engine.
    • According to Firefly, Alpha is designed to launch a max of 1000 kg (2200 lb) to a 200 km (125 mi) low Earth orbit (LEO). Given OTV’s ~200 kg wet mass, Alpha + OTV offer some incredible capabilities relative to the rocket’s size and design.
    • Powerful electric thrusters undeniably add a lot of complexity to any spacecraft that chooses to use them but that pain is often deemed worth it for the benefits they can offer. Most notably, ion propulsion is extremely efficient.
This graph demonstrates the potential performance benefits of Alpha + OTV relative to Alpha on its own. (Firefly)
  • Thanks to OTV’s efficient electric thrusters and light carbon composite structure, the potential benefits of Alpha + OTV are hard to believe for a rocket as (relatively) small as Alpha.
  • On its own, Alpha can only deliver a meaningful payload (~100 kg) to perhaps 4000 km (2500 mi). With OTV, Alpha can suddenly deliver ~600 kg to a circular geostationary orbit (~36,000 km, 22,300 mi) and upwards of 400-500 kg into orbit around the Moon.
    • For reference, despite weighing around 10% of Falcon 9, Alpha and OTV would offer perhaps 10-15% the performance of Falcon 9 to trans lunar injection (TLI). This utterly defies the general rule of thumb that as a rocket gets significantly smaller, its performance (particularly to higher-energy orbits) deteriorates disproportionately.
  • With OTV, Alpha – nominally a ~$15M launch vehicle relegated to LEO payloads – becomes an incredibly intriguing option for small geostationary communications satellites and small-scale public and private exploration of the Moon, near Earth asteroids, and maybe even Mars/Venus.
  • According to a senior Firefly investor and board member, Firefly hopes to have OTV ready for its orbital debut on Alpha’s third launch, tentatively scheduled no earlier than mid-2020.

Alpha readies for launch

  • Of course, OTV is a bird without wings without Firefly’s Alpha launch vehicle. Weighing 54,000 kg (120,000 lb) fully-fueled, Alpha is a two-stage rocket that will stand 1.8m (6ft) wide and 29m (95ft) tall. Powered by four Reaver engines, the first stage will produce ~740 kN (166,000 lbf), approximately 85% of one of Falcon 9’s nine Merlin 1D engines.
  • Firefly is working relentlessly towards an ambitious December 2019 Alpha launch debut, a target that will probably slip into early 2020 due to the inherent complexity of the task at hand. Critically, though, Firefly has made a huge amount of progress towards that goal.
    • Notably, Firefly’s second stage – powered by one vacuum-optimized Lightning engine – has already been qualified for launch with full-duration static fires at the company’s Texas facilities. Firefly is in the midst of preparing for an identical series of qualification tests for its more powerful first stage, shown above in the form of one Reaver engine attached to an Alpha S1 thrust structure.
    • As early as July, a full set of four Reaver engines will be installed on the same thrust structure to perform static fire testing, much like SpaceX gradually added Merlin 1D engines during Falcon 9 development testing.
  • If all goes as planned, Firefly will have completed its first Alpha rocket – first stage, second stage, and payload fairing – by October or November 2019. Expect plenty of new photos and updates as Alpha nears its inaugural launch.
Thanks for being a Teslarati Reader! Become a member today to receive an issue of DeepSpace in your inbox each week!

– Eric

 

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk claps back at France’s Tesla Full Self-Driving approval delay

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk clapped back at France’s decision to withhold the approval for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised system, projecting a clear and blunt message to French Transport Minister Phillippe Tabarot, after he publicly rejected the technology in its current form.

Tabarot outlines several concerns with Tesla Full Self-Driving in a detailed video statement, where he said, “The safety trade-offs are not yet sufficient to authorize it as it currently stands,” he said. He emphasized that FSD is not a true self-driving system and that the driver remains fully responsible.

Key issues Tabarot also brought up included allowing speeding when surrounding traffic exceeds limits and what he believes are insufficient guarantees of driver attention during complex urban maneuvers such as lane changes, intersections, and roundabouts.

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While acknowledging technological progress and France’s support for autonomous innovation, Tabarot stressed that deployment must prioritize road safety. He noted ongoing technical discussions with Tesla, the Netherlands, and other European partners, with further ecosystem meetings planned for the fall.

Musk’s rebuke highlights the human cost of regulatory caution. Tesla’s latest safety reports provide compelling data supporting accelerated adoption. In the most recent 12-month period, vehicles using FSD (Supervised) recorded one major collision per approximately 5.1 million miles driven, dramatically better than the U.S. national average of one crash per 698,000 miles.

Even Tesla vehicles driven manually with active safety features outperform the average by a wide margin. These figures come from billions of real-world miles of telemetry, showing FSD vehicles involved in far fewer incidents than both manual Teslas and the broader U.S. fleet.

Critics argue Tesla’s comparisons require careful scrutiny regarding reporting thresholds and fleet demographics, yet the data consistently positions FSD as a potential lifesaver. With road fatalities remaining a leading cause of death worldwide, Musk contends that proven safer technology should not face prolonged bureaucratic hurdles.

France’s measured approach reflects the broader European regulatory caution, which many, especially Musk, have been critical of in the past. However, as autonomous systems from Tesla and competitors like Waymo demonstrate superior safety in independent studies, pressure is mounting for harmonized approvals.

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Musk’s warning carries the belief that every month of delay may equate to avoidable tragedies on European roads.

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Investor's Corner

Google’s massive stake in SpaceX will shock you

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Credit: SpaceX

In a striking revelation that underscores the lucrative crossover between Big Tech and space exploration, Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, disclosed a massive $94.1 billion equity stake in SpaceX following the rocket company’s blockbuster initial public offering earlier this year.

The disclosure came in Alphabet’s quarterly filing, marking the first time the long-held private investment has been publicly valued at market prices. Google was an early backer, investing alongside Fidelity in 2015 with roughly $500-900 million at a time when SpaceX was valued around $12 billion.

That bet has delivered extraordinary returns, roughly a hundredfold, transforming a strategic play on satellite internet and launch capabilities into one of Alphabet’s largest assets.

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Of the total holding, approximately $80 billion remains subject to short-term post-IPO lockup restrictions, preventing near-term sales. An additional $14.1 billion faces longer-term restrictions, extending into the third quarter of 2027. This structure limits immediate liquidity but protects against market volatility as SpaceX transitions into public trading.

The SpaceX position contributed significantly to gains in Alphabet’s broader investment portfolio, which also includes a major stake in AI leader Anthropic. Combined, these holdings helped drive nearly $100 billion in investment gains during the second quarter, providing a substantial boost to net income amid ongoing AI spending pressures.

Elon Musk sends first warning to SpaceX short sellers

Analysts view the disclosure as validation of Alphabet’s venture strategy beyond its core search and cloud businesses. The investment aligns with deeper ties, including reported multi-billion-dollar deals for AI computing capacity on SpaceX infrastructure. As SpaceX advances Starship flights, Starlink expansion, and ambitious Mars goals under Elon Musk, Google’s stake positions it to benefit from the commercialization of space.

For Alphabet, the windfall highlights how patient, forward-looking bets in transformative sectors can yield outsized rewards. While lockups temper short-term impact, the holding cements SpaceX as a cornerstone of Alphabet’s diversified portfolio in an era where aerospace, AI, and connectivity increasingly intersect. Investors will watch closely as restrictions lift and SpaceX’s public performance unfolds.

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Tesla’s switch-up on selling Full Self-Driving has paid off big time

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In early 2026, Tesla made a bold strategic pivot: it largely eliminated the option to purchase Full Self-Driving (FSD) software outright and shifted to a subscription-only model. The change, effective around mid-February, ended the one-time fee that had previously ranged as high as $15,000 and later dropped to $8,000. Instead, customers would access FSD (Supervised) for $99 per month in the U.S.

At the time, skeptics questioned whether locking customers into recurring payments would hurt adoption or alienate buyers who preferred ownership of the feature. Tesla bet that a lower barrier to entry, seamless integration at purchase, and the ability to cancel at any time would drive higher uptake.

The results from Q2 2026 speak for themselves: the decision has been a resounding success, delivering the largest quarterly growth in FSD subscriptions in the company’s history.

According to Tesla’s Q2 shareholder update, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48 million globally by the end of June 2026. That represents a 56 percent increase year-over-year and a 15.6 percent jump from the prior quarter. Tesla added roughly 200,000 new subscriptions in the period alone—the biggest single-quarter gain on record.

North America led the charge, with more than 55 percent of new vehicle deliveries including an FSD subscription at the time of purchase, a record attach rate for the region.

Tesla explicitly noted that “more customers [are] opting for subscription at the time of vehicle purchase,” crediting the model shift and prominent placement of the option in the ordering process. Subscriptions now contribute meaningfully to ancillary revenue, helping offset pressure elsewhere in the business.

The financial upside is substantial: At $99 per month, 1.48 million active subscriptions generate approximately $146.5 million in monthly recurring revenue. Over a full year, that equates to roughly $1.76 billion in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) from FSD subscriptions alone, assuming steady retention and no major pricing changes.

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These figures represent pure, high-margin software revenue. Unlike vehicle sales, which carry production costs, warranty obligations, and supply-chain risks, FSD subscriptions flow largely to the bottom line once the software is developed and deployed over-the-air.

Tesla does not break out exact FSD subscription revenue in its filings (it sits within “Services and Other”), but the category grew 50 percent year-over-year in Q2, with executives highlighting subscriptions as a key driver.

The subscription model offers several structural advantages. It lowers the upfront cost of a new Tesla, potentially broadening the buyer pool and supporting vehicle demand, especially important amid fluctuating EV market conditions. It creates a predictable revenue stream that compounds as the fleet grows and more owners try (and stick with) the software.

Legacy one-time purchasers still exist, but new growth is overwhelmingly subscription-based following the February cutoff.

Early data also suggests improving retention and satisfaction, as well. Tesla has rolled out iterative FSD updates, including v14 features, and expanded availability to additional markets. Recent regulatory approvals in parts of Europe have further boosted interest, with owners in newly enabled countries eager to activate the software they had been waiting for.

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FSD is still supervised; regulatory hurdles for true unsupervised autonomy persist in many regions, including the United States, and competition in advanced driver-assistance systems is intensifying. Yet the Q2 numbers validate Tesla’s bet: by removing the large upfront commitment and making FSD accessible via subscription, the company has accelerated adoption faster than many anticipated.

What began as a controversial switch-up has become a clear win. With nearly 1.5 million subscribers, record attach rates, and nearly $1.8 billion in potential annual recurring revenue already in view, Tesla’s FSD business is transitioning from a promised future to a tangible, fast-growing profit engine.

If the momentum continues, and especially if unsupervised capabilities unlock robotaxi opportunities, the subscription flywheel could become one of the most valuable assets in Tesla’s portfolio.

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