Investor's Corner
Dissecting Tesla’s Q3 2022 delivery count, and why it missed expectations
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) released its Delivery and Production numbers for Q3 2022 on Sunday, and while the automaker delivered its most productive quarter as a company yet, it missed Wall Street’s expectations. But, there’s a lot more to take away from the figures than just a company record and a miss on analyst predictions.
For those who missed the press release, Tesla stated on Sunday morning that it had delivered 343,830 vehicles in Q3 2022, with 325,158 of them being Model 3 and Model Y, and the remaining 18,672 being Model S and Model X. Tesla reported that it produced over 22,100 vehicles more than it delivered, citing supply chain and logistics challenges as the culprit for the miss in deliveries. “As our production volumes continue to grow, it is becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks,” it said regarding the final few weeks of the quarter, which have historically been where the company makes more deliveries compared to other weeks due to its end-of-quarter sales push.
Tesla Q3 2022 vehicle delivery and production results: 344k delivered and 365k produced
There’s more to Q3, and here’s why:
Tesla still showed growth, rebounding from a miss in Q2
Tesla missed quarterly delivery growth for the first time in two-and-a-half years in Q2 2022. This was due to “ongoing supply chain challenges and factory shutdowns beyond our control,” Tesla said. As Gigafactory Shanghai battled shutdowns, Tesla clawed its way back to over 254,600 deliveries but did not sustain its streak of consecutive quarters with proven growth.
Nevertheless, Tesla beat Q2 handily and delivered more vehicles in Q3 than it ever has before, and it should. With two new production facilities launched this year in Austin and Germany, Tesla should be on the path to quarterly delivery and production growth for several years. This should not plateau for several years if things run ideally and Tesla, in a perfect world, would not experience any unforeseen interruptions in production. However, the world has weird plans, and the last two years are proof of that.
Tesla’s rebound to a new quarterly record is undoubtedly putting the company back on the right track. As Q4 begins, the final three months of 2022 will be Tesla’s final chance to not only establish another quarter of growth, but also a chance to beat analyst expectations, which it has done nearly every quarter since 2019.
Model S and Model X production reached its highest levels in three years
Tesla delivered 18,672 Model S and Model X vehicles last quarter, what Sawyer Merritt recognized as the most since Q4 2019.
This is interesting to note, as the vehicles have been in increased demand for the past year and a half since the release of the “Refreshed” and Plaid versions of the cars. Tesla has struggled to ramp and complete deliveries of the Model S and Model X since releasing the new trim levels, but the growth shows that, while they’re still “sentimental,” as CEO Elon Musk said, consumers are still interested in Tesla’s two flagship vehicles.
Tesla is not immune to supply chain issues. They are struggling like other automakers
Tesla put a paragraph in its press release explaining the “lighter” delivery figure it reported on Sunday:
“Historically, our delivery volumes have skewed towards the end of each quarter due to regional batch building of cars. As our production volumes continue to grow, it is becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks. In Q3, we began transitioning to a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter. These cars have been ordered and will be delivered to customers upon arrival at their destination.”
Tesla is not immune to supply chain issues, despite being incredibly vertically integrated. It seems as if the company did not necessarily get the timing right on some of the deliveries planned for the end of Q3, which bodes negatively for that quarter. However, it is a great way to start Q4, and investors can likely expect an extremely strong final quarter due to this, and the company’s notoriety of having the final three months of the year be its strongest.
Tesla is feeling the heat from the miss on Wall Street. At the time of writing, shares were down over 8 percent on the day.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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Elon Musk has firmly denied recent media reports suggesting that SpaceX has reduced its target valuation for an upcoming initial public offering.
The denial came directly from the SpaceX and Tesla frontman on his social media platform X, where he responded with a single word, “False,” to a post from ZeroHedge that cited Bloomberg sources.
This swift rebuttal underscores Musk’s ongoing effort to manage speculation surrounding one of the most anticipated market debuts in recent history.
False
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2026
According to the disputed reports, SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion from previous ambitions exceeding $2 trillion.
The claims emerged amid growing anticipation for the company’s confidential S-1 filing, which positions it for a potential public listing as early as June.
Some had pointed to strong revenue growth, particularly from the Starlink satellite internet service, which contributed heavily to the firm’s 2025 figures of $18.7 billion. Yet challenges persist in other areas, including substantial investments and losses tied to ambitious projects like Starship development and artificial intelligence initiatives, which plan to make life multiplanetary eventually.
Musk’s response highlights a pattern in which he actively counters what he views as inaccurate portrayals of his companies’ trajectories.
SpaceX, already valued privately at extraordinary levels, stands as a cornerstone of Musk’s empire alongside Tesla and xAI. The entrepreneur has long emphasized the transformative potential of reusable rockets and global broadband access, factors that fuel investor enthusiasm despite operational hurdles.
By rejecting the valuation downgrade narrative, Musk signals confidence in SpaceX’s fundamentals and its readiness for public markets on terms favorable to its long-term vision. People have been waiting a very long time to invest in SpaceX, and the valuation, as well as the introductory share price, is not going to need adjusting.
They’ll have plenty of suitors.
This episode reflects broader dynamics in the technology sector, where rumors often swirl around high-profile entities. Musk’s direct engagement with media narratives serves to maintain transparency and control the narrative around his ventures.
As SpaceX prepares for greater scrutiny in public markets, the founder’s denial reinforces optimism about its prospects. Supporters argue that the company’s innovative edge positions it for enduring success, far beyond short-term valuation debates. With the denial now public, attention turns to forthcoming regulatory filings that could provide clearer insights into SpaceX’s strategy and financial health.
The coming weeks promise to reveal more about how SpaceX will transition into a publicly traded powerhouse.
Elon Musk
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Tesla and SpaceX may be closer to merging than Wall Street or either company is admitting.
Elon Musk has reportedly discussed merging Tesla and SpaceX with people close to him, according to CNBC, which cited sources familiar with the conversation. Tesla employees have long expected such a transaction and the topic is openly discussed internally, according to internal sources. With SpaceX is days away from kicking off its Wall Street roadshow for what could be the largest IPO in market history, this would be the first time the company will have public market currency to execute a stock-for-stock deal with Tesla.
The financial logic for a merger would make sense. A combined SpaceX and Tesla would create a conglomerate spanning rockets, satellites, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and energy storage valued at roughly $3.35 trillion to $3.6 trillion based on SpaceX’s IPO target range and Tesla’s current market capitalization. The two companies are already more intertwined than most people realize. SpaceX bought $697 million worth of Tesla Megapack systems for xAI data centers and $131 million worth of Cybertrucks. Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI, which subsequently merged with SpaceX. Past transactions also include Tesla selling solar equipment and parts to SpaceX, and SpaceX helping with Cybertruck materials.
Will Tesla join the fold? Predicting a triple merger with SpaceX and xAI
Musk himself signaled where this was heading in November 2025 when he posted on X, “My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence.” Tesla and SpaceX announced a joint semiconductor fabrication facility in Austin called Terafab on the Gigafactory Texas campus, covering two advanced chip factories, with one serving Tesla’s AI needs for vehicles and Optimus robots, the other targeting space-based data centers under SpaceX’s infrastructure vision.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives places the probability of a merger at 80% to 90% with a target completion in the first half of 2027. The mechanics of a deal became possible the moment SpaceX filed its S-1. Legal experts said a merger likely would not spark antitrust issues but would raise concerns among shareholders in each company, with questions around which company would be the parent, how a stock swap would take place, and who determines the appropriate price. Musk holds about 20% of Tesla’s equity but controls 85.1% of SpaceX’s voting power through a super-voting share class, meaning he would largely be negotiating the terms with himself.
Not everyone is convinced the timing is imminent. Traders on Kalshi place only 33% odds that a merger will happen before May 2027. The more immediate concern for Tesla shareholders is whether the SpaceX IPO pulls capital and Musk’s attention away from Tesla before any merger consolidates the upside for both.
What is clear is that the structural groundwork is already being laid. The Terafab announcement, the xAI merger, the shared supply chain, the cross-company balance sheet transactions, and now the IPO all point in the same direction. Whether the merger follows in 2027 or later, the two companies are already operating more like divisions of a single entity than independent competitors.
Elon Musk
SpaceX just filed for the IPO everyone was waiting for
SpaceX filed its public S-1, revealing $18.7 billion in revenue and billions in losses.
SpaceX publicly filed its S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 20, 2026, making its financial details available to the public for the first time ahead of what could be the largest IPO in history.
An S-1 is the formal document a company must submit to the SEC before going public. It includes audited financials, risk factors, business descriptions, and how the company plans to use the money it raises. Companies are required to file one before selling shares to the public, and it must be published at least 15 days before the investor roadshow begins. SpaceX had already submitted a confidential draft to the SEC in April, which allowed regulators to review the filing privately before it went public.
The S-1 reveals that SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in consolidated revenue in 2025, driven largely by its Starlink satellite internet division, which posted $11.4 billion in revenue, growing nearly 50% year over year. Despite that growth, the company lost about $4.9 billion in 2025 and has burned through more than $37 billion since its founding.
SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history
A significant portion of those losses trace back to xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, which was recently merged into SpaceX. SpaceX directed roughly 60% of its capital spending in 2025 to its AI division, totaling around $20 billion, yet that division lost billions and grew revenue by only about 22%.
SpaceX plans to list its Class A common stock on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America leading the offering. The dual-class share structure means going public will not meaningfully reduce Musk’s control, as Class B shares he holds carry 10 votes per share compared to one vote for public Class A shares.
The company is targeting a raise of around $75 billion at a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO ever. The investor roadshow is reportedly planned for June 5.
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