Connect with us

News

DeepSpace: Europe reveals Mars sample return spacecraft as SpaceX builds Starships

Published

6 years ago

on

The European Space Agency (ESA) revealed a concept for a spacecraft that would work alongside NASA to return samples of Martian soil to Earth. (ESA)

Eric Ralph · May 28th, 2019

Welcome to the latest edition of DeepSpace! Each week, Teslarati space reporter Eric Ralph hand-crafts this newsletter to give you a breakdown of what’s happening in the space industry and what you need to know. To receive this newsletter (and others) directly and join our member-only Slack group, give us a 3-month trial for just $5.

On May 27th, the European Space Agency (ESA) published updated renders of a proposed spacecraft, called the Earth Return Orbiter (ERO). ERO would be the last of four critical elements of a joint NASA-ESA Mars sample return mission, meant to return perhaps 1-5 kg (2-11 lb) of Martian samples to scientists on Earth. In a best-case scenario, such a sample return is unlikely to happen before the tail-end of the 2020s and will probably slip well into the 2030s, barring any unexpected windfalls of funding or political support.

Enter SpaceX, a private American company developing Starship/Super Heavy – a massive, next-generation launch vehicle – with the goal of landing dozens of tons of cargo and just as many humans on Mars as few as 5-10 years from now. The radically different approaches of SpaceX and NASA/ESA are bound to produce equally different results, while both are expected to cost no less than $5B-$10B to be fully realized. What gives?

The high price of guaranteed success

  • As proposed, the Mars sample return mission will be an extraordinary technical challenge.
    • At a minimum, the current approach involves sending a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) rocket from Earth to Mars, landing the SSTO with extreme accuracy on the back of a new Mars lander, deploying a small rover to gather the sample container, loading that container onto the tiny rocket, launching said rocket into Mars orbit, grabbing the sample with large orbiter launched from Earth, and returning said sample to Earth where it will reenter the atmosphere and be safely recovered.
  • This downright Rube Golberg machine-esque architecture is nevertheless the best currently available with current mindsets and hardware. It’s also likely the only way NASA or ESA will independently acquire samples of Mars within the next few decades, barring radical changes to both the mindsets and technologies familiar and available to the deeply bureaucratic spaceflight agencies.
  • However, this is by no means an attempt to downplay the demonstrated expertise and capabilities of the space agencies and their go-to contractors. Both ESA and NASA have a decades-long heritage of spectacular achievements in robotic space exploration, reaching – however briefly, in some cases – almost every major planet and moon in the solar system.
    • The NASA-supported Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) remains a world-leading expert of both designing, building, and landing large, capable, and long-lived rovers/landers on the surface of Mars. JPL also has a track record of incredible success with space-based orbiters, including Cassini (Saturn), Magellan (Venus), Galileo (Jupiter), Voyager (most planets, now in interstellar space), Stardust (comet sample return), Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO, Mars orbiter) and more.
  • This success, however, can often come with extreme costs. NASA’s next Mars rover – essentially a modified copy of the Curiosity rover currently operating on Mars and a critical component of the proposed sample return – is likely to cost more than $2B, while Curiosity cost ~$2.5B. The Cassini Saturn orbiter cost around ~$3.5B for 15 years of scientific productivity. ESA’s Rosetta/Philae comet rendezvous cost at least $2B total. In the scheme of things, it would be hard to think of a more inspiring way to spend that money, but the fact remains that these missions are extremely expensive.

High risk, high reward

  • The price of missions like those above may, in fact, be close to their practical minimum, at least relative to the expectations of those footing the bill. However, it’s highly likely that similar results could be achieved on far tighter budgets, another way to say that far more returns could potentially be derived from the same investment.
    • The easiest way to explain this lies in the fact that the governments sponsoring and funding ESA and NASA have grown almost dysfunctionally risk-averse, to the extent that failure really isn’t an option in the modern era. Stakeholders – often elected representatives – expect success and often demand a guaranteed return on their support before choosing to fight for a given program’s funding.
    • As it turns out, an unwillingness to accept more than a minute amount of risk is not particularly compatible with affordably attempting to do things that are technically challenging and have often never been done before. That happens to be a great summary of spaceflight.
    • As risk aversion and the need for guaranteed success grew hand-in-hand, a sort of paradox formed. As politicians strove to ensure that space agency funding was efficiently used, space agencies became far more conservative (minimizing results and the potential for leaps forward) and the cost of complex, capable spacecraft grew dramatically.
    • The end result: spacecraft that are consistently reliable, high-performance, derivative, and terrifyingly expensive.
  • SpaceX is in many ways an anathema of the low-risk, medium-reward, high-cost approach that government space agencies and their dependent contractors have gravitated towards over the last 40-50 years. Instead, SpaceX accepts medium to high risk to attain great rewards at a cost that space agencies like NASA and ESA are often unable to accept as possible after decades of conservatism.
    • This is the main reason that it’s possible that NASA/ESA and SpaceX will both succeed in accomplishing goals at a dramatically disproportionate scale with roughly the same amount of funding.
    • If NASA/ESA bite the bullet and begin to seriously fund their triple-launch Mars Sample Return program, the missions will take a decade or longer and cost something like $5 million per gram of soil returned to Earth, but success will be all but guaranteed.
    • Both SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy and Mars colonization development programs run significant risks of hitting major obstacles, suffering catastrophic failures, and could even result in the death of crew members aboard the first attempted missions to Mars.
    • For that accepted risk, the rewards could be unfathomable and the costs revolutionary. SpaceX could very well beat the combined might of ESA and NASA to return large samples of Martian soil, rock, and water to Earth, all while launching ~100,000 kg into Martian orbit instead of the sample return’s ~10 kg.
    • In a best-case scenario, SpaceX could land the first uncrewed Starship on Mars as early as 2022 or 2024. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe or the company’s outright collapse, that first uncrewed Mars landing might happen as late as the early 2030s, around the same time as NASA and ESA’s ~10kg of Mars samples will likely be reentering Earth’s atmosphere.
  • Regardless of which approach succeeds first, space exploration fans and space scientists will have a spectacular amount of activity to be excited about over the next 10-20 years.
Thanks for being a Teslarati Reader! Become a member today to receive an issue of DeepSpace each week!

– Eric
Advertisement
Related Topics:

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Advertisement
Comments

Elon Musk

Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI6 chip is Project Dojo’s successor

Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips are expected to be rolled out to the company’s consumer products.

Published

2 days ago

on

August 9, 2025

By

tesla-supercomputer-pre-dojo
Credit: Tim Zaman/Twitter

Earlier this week, reports emerged stating that Tesla has stepped back from its Project Dojo initiative. While the reports were initially framed as a negative development for the electric vehicle maker’s autonomous driving efforts, CEO Elon Musk later noted on X that Tesla was indeed halting its Dojo initiative.

Elon Musk’s Confirmation

As per Musk, Tesla was shuttering Project Dojo because it does not make sense for the company to divide its resources and scale two different AI chip designs. Dojo, after all, is designed to train the company’s autonomous driving program, and thus, it would not be rolled out to Tesla’s consumer products.

In a series of posts on X, Musk stated that it would make sense to just use Tesla’s AI5/AI6 to train its FSD and Autopilot systems. “In a supercomputer cluster, it would make sense to put many AI5/AI6 chips on a board, whether for inference or training, simply to reduce network cabling complexity & cost by a few orders of magnitude,” Musk said.

Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips are expected to be rolled out to the company’s consumer products, from Optimus to the Cybercab to the next-generation Roadster.

AI6 is Dojo’s Successor

What was particularly interesting about Musk’s comment was his mention of using AI5/AI6 chips for training. As per Musk, this strategy could be seen as “Dojo 3” in a way, since the performance of Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips is already notable. Musk’s comment about using AI6 chips for training caught the eye of many, including Apple and Rivian alumnus Phil Beisel, who noted that “AI6 is now Dojo.”

Advertisement

“Dojo is Tesla’s AI training supercomputer, built around a custom chip known as the D1. The D1 and AI5/AI6 share many core design elements, particularly the math operations used in neural networks (e.g., matrix multiplication) and highly parallel processing.

“Dojo had a unique feature: chips arranged in a 5×5 grid using a system-on-wafer design, with etched interconnects enabling high-speed data transfer. In a sense, Dojo will live on as the generalized AI6. Going forward, all efforts will focus on AI6,” the tech veteran wrote in a post on X.

Elon Musk confirmed the Apple alumnus’ musings, with the CEO responding with a “bullseye” emoji. Musk is evidently excited for Tesla’s AI6 chip, which is expected to produced by Samsung’s upcoming Texas fabrication facility. In a post on X, Musk stated that he would personally be walking Samsung’s line to accelerate the output of Tesla’s AI6 computers.

Continue Reading

Cybertruck

Tesla’s new upgrade makes the Cybertruck extra-terrestrial

The upgrade was announced by the electric vehicle maker on social media platform X.

Published

2 days ago

on

August 9, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla

It took a while, but the Tesla Cybertruck’s rock sliders and battery armor upgrades have finally arrived. The upgrade was announced by the electric vehicle maker on social media platform X, to much appreciation from Cybertruck owners.

Tesla Releases Cybertruck Armor Package

As could be seen in Tesla’s official Shop, the Cybertruck Terrestrial Armor Package is available only for Foundation Series units for now, though non-Foundation Series vehicles should have access to the upgrade around September 2025. Price-wise, the armor package is quite reasonable at $3,500.

For that price, Cybertruck owners would be able to acquire enhanced rock sliders and an underbody battery shield that should allow the all-electric pickup truck to go through harsh terrain without any issues. Each purchase of the Terrestrial Armor Package includes 1 Underbody shield, 1 Left side structural rocker, and 1 Right side structural rocker.

Most importantly, the Armor Package’s price includes shipment to the customer’s preferred Tesla Service Center and installation.

Extra-Terrestrial

Tesla describes its Cybertruck Armor Package as follows: “Get extra-terrestrial. The Cybertruck Terrestrial Armor Package includes enhanced rock sliders and an underbody battery shield to provide greater protection from rocks and debris when off-roading on tough terrain. The rock sliders are constructed from coated steel and the underbody battery shield is constructed from aluminum for greater protection against scraping.”

Advertisement

Initial impressions from a Cybertruck owner who was fortunate enough to test the Armor Package in real-world off-road conditions have been positive. The item’s pricing also seems to be quite appreciated by Cybertruck owners in forums such as the Cybertruck Owners Club, with some members stating that they would be acquiring the package for their own all-electric pickup trucks.

Continue Reading

News

Tesla Model Y L reportedly entered mass production in Giga Shanghai

The vehicle is expected to be a larger version of the best-selling Model Y crossover.

Published

2 days ago

on

August 9, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Reports from industry watchers in China have suggested that the Tesla Model Y L has started mass production at Gigafactory Shanghai. The vehicle is expected to be a larger version of the best-selling Model Y crossover, offering three rows and six seats thanks to a longer wheelbase.

Tesla Model Y L Production Rumors

Reports about the new Model Y variant’s alleged milestone were initially shared on Weibo, with some industry watchers stating that the vehicle has already started mass production. Tesla China is reportedly surveying which of its domestic stores would have the first display units of the six-seat Model Y. 

The Model Y L’s steady march towards production was evident this past week, with recent reports indicating that the vehicle’s key specs have already been listed in the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (MIIT) latest batch of new energy vehicle models that are eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions.

As per the MIIT’s list, the Model Y L will be a dual motor vehicle that is equipped with an 82.0-kWh lithium-ion battery from LG Energy Solution. The vehicle will feature six seats with two captain seats on the second row, as well as a CLTC range of 751 km. 

Tesla Model Y L Potential

The potential of the Model Y L is vast, considering that it is produced in the existing Model Y lines of Tesla’s factories. This should slash new vehicle tooling costs and potential ramp-up issues. Three-row SUVs also command a pretty notable market that has mostly only been accessed by the more expensive Model X. With the Model Y L’s lower price, Tesla could become more competitive in the three-row SUV segment.

Advertisement

As noted by longtime Tesla owner and investor @_SFTahoe, the Model Y L could also become a more premium option for the company’s Robotaxi business, thanks to its second row captain seats and spacious interior. The expansion of Model Y L Robotaxis should also be impressive considering Tesla’s mastery of mass manufacturing techniques. 

Continue Reading

Trending