Connect with us

News

DeepSpace: Europe reveals Mars sample return spacecraft as SpaceX builds Starships

Published

on

The European Space Agency (ESA) revealed a concept for a spacecraft that would work alongside NASA to return samples of Martian soil to Earth. (ESA)

Eric Ralph · May 28th, 2019

Welcome to the latest edition of DeepSpace! Each week, Teslarati space reporter Eric Ralph hand-crafts this newsletter to give you a breakdown of what’s happening in the space industry and what you need to know. To receive this newsletter (and others) directly and join our member-only Slack group, give us a 3-month trial for just $5.


On May 27th, the European Space Agency (ESA) published updated renders of a proposed spacecraft, called the Earth Return Orbiter (ERO). ERO would be the last of four critical elements of a joint NASA-ESA Mars sample return mission, meant to return perhaps 1-5 kg (2-11 lb) of Martian samples to scientists on Earth. In a best-case scenario, such a sample return is unlikely to happen before the tail-end of the 2020s and will probably slip well into the 2030s, barring any unexpected windfalls of funding or political support.

Enter SpaceX, a private American company developing Starship/Super Heavy – a massive, next-generation launch vehicle – with the goal of landing dozens of tons of cargo and just as many humans on Mars as few as 5-10 years from now. The radically different approaches of SpaceX and NASA/ESA are bound to produce equally different results, while both are expected to cost no less than $5B-$10B to be fully realized. What gives?




The high price of guaranteed success

  • As proposed, the Mars sample return mission will be an extraordinary technical challenge.
    • At a minimum, the current approach involves sending a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) rocket from Earth to Mars, landing the SSTO with extreme accuracy on the back of a new Mars lander, deploying a small rover to gather the sample container, loading that container onto the tiny rocket, launching said rocket into Mars orbit, grabbing the sample with large orbiter launched from Earth, and returning said sample to Earth where it will reenter the atmosphere and be safely recovered.
  • This downright Rube Golberg machine-esque architecture is nevertheless the best currently available with current mindsets and hardware. It’s also likely the only way NASA or ESA will independently acquire samples of Mars within the next few decades, barring radical changes to both the mindsets and technologies familiar and available to the deeply bureaucratic spaceflight agencies.
  • However, this is by no means an attempt to downplay the demonstrated expertise and capabilities of the space agencies and their go-to contractors. Both ESA and NASA have a decades-long heritage of spectacular achievements in robotic space exploration, reaching – however briefly, in some cases – almost every major planet and moon in the solar system.
    • The NASA-supported Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) remains a world-leading expert of both designing, building, and landing large, capable, and long-lived rovers/landers on the surface of Mars. JPL also has a track record of incredible success with space-based orbiters, including Cassini (Saturn), Magellan (Venus), Galileo (Jupiter), Voyager (most planets, now in interstellar space), Stardust (comet sample return), Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO, Mars orbiter) and more.
  • This success, however, can often come with extreme costs. NASA’s next Mars rover – essentially a modified copy of the Curiosity rover currently operating on Mars and a critical component of the proposed sample return – is likely to cost more than $2B, while Curiosity cost ~$2.5B. The Cassini Saturn orbiter cost around ~$3.5B for 15 years of scientific productivity. ESA’s Rosetta/Philae comet rendezvous cost at least $2B total. In the scheme of things, it would be hard to think of a more inspiring way to spend that money, but the fact remains that these missions are extremely expensive.



High risk, high reward

  • The price of missions like those above may, in fact, be close to their practical minimum, at least relative to the expectations of those footing the bill. However, it’s highly likely that similar results could be achieved on far tighter budgets, another way to say that far more returns could potentially be derived from the same investment.
    • The easiest way to explain this lies in the fact that the governments sponsoring and funding ESA and NASA have grown almost dysfunctionally risk-averse, to the extent that failure really isn’t an option in the modern era. Stakeholders – often elected representatives – expect success and often demand a guaranteed return on their support before choosing to fight for a given program’s funding.
    • As it turns out, an unwillingness to accept more than a minute amount of risk is not particularly compatible with affordably attempting to do things that are technically challenging and have often never been done before. That happens to be a great summary of spaceflight.
    • As risk aversion and the need for guaranteed success grew hand-in-hand, a sort of paradox formed. As politicians strove to ensure that space agency funding was efficiently used, space agencies became far more conservative (minimizing results and the potential for leaps forward) and the cost of complex, capable spacecraft grew dramatically.
    • The end result: spacecraft that are consistently reliable, high-performance, derivative, and terrifyingly expensive.



  • SpaceX is in many ways an anathema of the low-risk, medium-reward, high-cost approach that government space agencies and their dependent contractors have gravitated towards over the last 40-50 years. Instead, SpaceX accepts medium to high risk to attain great rewards at a cost that space agencies like NASA and ESA are often unable to accept as possible after decades of conservatism.
    • This is the main reason that it’s possible that NASA/ESA and SpaceX will both succeed in accomplishing goals at a dramatically disproportionate scale with roughly the same amount of funding.
    • If NASA/ESA bite the bullet and begin to seriously fund their triple-launch Mars Sample Return program, the missions will take a decade or longer and cost something like $5 million per gram of soil returned to Earth, but success will be all but guaranteed.
    • Both SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy and Mars colonization development programs run significant risks of hitting major obstacles, suffering catastrophic failures, and could even result in the death of crew members aboard the first attempted missions to Mars.
    • For that accepted risk, the rewards could be unfathomable and the costs revolutionary. SpaceX could very well beat the combined might of ESA and NASA to return large samples of Martian soil, rock, and water to Earth, all while launching ~100,000 kg into Martian orbit instead of the sample return’s ~10 kg.
    • In a best-case scenario, SpaceX could land the first uncrewed Starship on Mars as early as 2022 or 2024. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe or the company’s outright collapse, that first uncrewed Mars landing might happen as late as the early 2030s, around the same time as NASA and ESA’s ~10kg of Mars samples will likely be reentering Earth’s atmosphere.
  • Regardless of which approach succeeds first, space exploration fans and space scientists will have a spectacular amount of activity to be excited about over the next 10-20 years.
Thanks for being a Teslarati Reader! Become a member today to receive an issue of DeepSpace each week!

– Eric

Advertisement

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Advertisement
Comments

News

Tesla Cybertruck gets Full Self-Driving v14 release date, sort of

Published

on

Tesla Cybertruck owners are wondering when they will get access to the company’s Full Self-Driving version 14.1 that rolled out to other owners today for the first time.

Cybertruck owners typically receive Full Self-Driving updates slightly later than other drivers, as the process for the all-electric pickup is different. It is a larger vehicle that requires some additional attention from Tesla before FSD versions are rolled out, so they will be slightly delayed. CEO Elon Musk said the all-wheel steering technically requires a bit more attention before rollout as well.

After some owners got access to the v14.1 Full Self-Driving suite this morning, Cybertruck owners sought out a potential timeframe for when they would be able to experience things for themselves.

Advertisement

Tesla owners show off improvements with new Full Self-Driving v14 rollout

They were able to get an answer from Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, who said:

“We got you. Coming soon.”

Advertisement

The release of FSD v14.1 for Cybertruck will not be tempered, either. Elluswamy then confirmed that Tesla would be rolling out the full-featured FSD v14 for the pickup, meaning it would be able to reverse and park itself, among other features.

Elluswamy said it would be capable of these features, which were void in other FSD releases for Cybertruck in the past.

Tesla’s rollout of FSD v14.1 brings several extremely notable changes and improvements to the suite, including more refined operation in parking garages, a new ability to choose parking preferences upon arriving at your destination, a new driving mode called “Sloth,” which is even more reserved than “Chill,” and general operational improvements.

Those who were lucky enough to receive the suite have already started showing off the improvements, and they definitely seem to be a step up from what v13’s more recent versions were capable of.

CEO Elon Musk called v14 “sentient” a few weeks back, and it seems that it is moving toward that. However, he did state that additional releases with more capabilities would be available in the coming weeks, but many owners are still waiting for this first version.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

It is the first time Tesla has revealed any details about what it planned to launch in terms of its new, lower-cost vehicles, which are mainly aimed at countering the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit.

Published

on

Credit: Tesla

Tesla has officially launched its affordable models with the new Model 3 and Model Y ‘Standard’ versions hitting the company’s Online Design Studio on Tuesday.

It is the first time Tesla has revealed any details about what it planned to launch in terms of its new, lower-cost vehicles, which are mainly aimed at countering the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit.

Here’s what Tesla went with for its release of the new affordable models.

Tesla Model Y ‘Standard’

The Model Y Standard is a stripped-down version of the all-electric crossover and starts at $39,990.

Deliveries are slated for November and December, the company says if you plan to order one, and it comes with a few major changes to improve efficiency and bring down cost for owners.

Advertisement
  • New athletically tuned exterior and new alloy wheels to improve aerodynamics
  • 15.4″ touchscreen in the front, the same as the other trims
  • Available in three colors: Stealth Grey (free), White ($1,oo0 extra), Diamond Black ($1,500 extra)
  • Textile and vegan leather interior
  • Range sits at 321 miles
  • New front fascia
  • Covered glass roof (textile on inside)
  • Windows are not acoustically laminated for a quieter cabin
  • Manual mirrors and seats
  • Smaller frunk
  • No rear infotainment screen
  • No basic Autopilot
  • 69 kWh battery
  • New 19″ Aperture wheels
  • 0-60 MPH in 6.8 seconds
  • 7 speaker stereo, down from 15 speakers in premium models

Tesla Model 3 ‘Standard’

The Model 3 Standard was a surprise offering from Tesla, as many had only anticipated the company to refine and offer a more affordable version of the Model Y.

Coming in at $36,990, it features many of the same changes Tesla made with the Model Y “Standard,” all ways to improve price and make it less flashy than the more premium offerings.

Advertisement

Deliveries are also slated for November for this vehicle, and it features relatively the same stripped-down offerings as the Model Y Standard.

  • Available in three colors: Stealth Grey (free), White ($1,oo0 extra), Diamond Black ($1,500 extra)
  • Textile and vegan leather interior
  • Range sits at 321 miles
  • Covered glass roof (textile on inside)
  • Manual mirrors and seats
  • No rear infotainment screen
  • No basic Autopilot
  • 69 kWh battery
  • New 19″ Aperture wheels
  • 0-60 MPH in 6.8 seconds
  • 7 speaker stereo, down from 15 speakers in premium models
@teslarati 🚨 Tesla’s Affordable Models are here! Let’s talk about them! #tesla #fyp #viral #teslaev #elonmusk ♬ Natural Emotions – Muspace Lofi

Continue Reading

Elon Musk

Tesla owners show off improvements with new Full Self-Driving v14 rollout

Some of the big things that Tesla faced head-on with the development and release of v14 were navigating in parking garages and handling parking after arriving at a destination.

Published

on

Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East/X

Tesla owners with access to the company’s Full Self-Driving new version, v14, which rolled out on Tuesday morning, are showcasing some of the very impressive improvements that have arrived.

CEO Elon Musk called v14 “sentient” a few weeks ahead of its rollout, claiming the newest iteration of the company’s Full Self-Driving platform would be the most accurate to date.

Tesla FSD (Supervised) V14.1 with Robotaxi-style dropoffs is here

It was obvious this narrative had Tesla owners keeping their expectations high, as there were very evidently things that needed to be improved upon that were present in v13. I wrote about several improvements I was hoping to see, and based on the release notes for v14, Tesla did have these things in the works already.

Some of the big things that Tesla faced head-on with the development and release of v14 were navigating in parking garages and handling parking after arriving at a destination.

Advertisement

Tesla said it was working to increase the capabilities of Summon within parking garages, as many owners believe that is where it would be the most beneficial.

While that does not appear to be part of this initial v14 rollout, it does seem Tesla is focused on improving the suite’s ability to navigate through these garages, including stopping for a ticket to enter the facility, finding a spot, and parking in an appropriate space.

It was evident this was a huge improvement based on one example from an owner who received v14:

If you look closely, you will even see the car shift slightly to the right when it arrives at the ticketing station, making it easier for the driver to hand over their ticket and payment. It then moves back out to the right when leaving to return to the center of the lane. It’s very intuitive.

Additionally, it appears to be more accurate when parking, thanks to improvements that enable owners to select the type of parking upon arrival at a destination.

In the v14.1 release notes, Tesla said that it has added “Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.”

One owner chose to navigate home and chose a garage to park in. Full Self-Driving performed it without any issues:

Advertisement

These are just two evident improvements so far, and there are likely many more on the way. The changes and fixes will be tracked by anyone with access to FSD v14 in the coming weeks.

Continue Reading

Trending