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Goldman Sachs predicts price drop for key battery metals like cobalt, nickel, and lithium

(Credit: Tesla)

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Prices for key battery materials may have been rising as of late, but Goldman Sachs believes that some price drops are in order. The prediction was outlined by Goldman analysts Nicholas Snowdon and Aditi Rai in a note on Sunday. 

“Investors are fully aware that battery metals will play a crucial role in the 21st-century global economy. Yet despite this exponential demand profile, we see the battery metals bull market as over for now,” the analysts wrote. 

The analysts noted that important battery components such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel would likely drop over the next two years. While long-term prospects for battery metals are still strong due to the growing electric vehicle sector, the Goldman analysts noted that investor exuberance has led to an oversupply. 

The analysts noted that there has been a “surge in investor capital into supply investment tied to the long term EV demand story, essentially trading a spot driven commodity as a forward-looking equity.” This has resulted in a “fundamental mispricing” that has, in turn, “generated an outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend,” according to a BNN Bloomberg report.

The Goldman analysts predict that cobalt will likely drop to an average of $59,500 a ton about a year from now, down from about $80,000 today. Nickel is predicted to rise nearly 20% over the rest of this year to $36,500 a ton, but the analysts predict that “fundamental pressures” will be driving the price of the material lower after. 

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Lithium, on the other hand, is expected to see a “sharp correction,” with the metal averaging less than $54,000 per ton this year, down from a spot price of more than $60,000. The analysts expect lithium to fall to an average of just over $16,000 in 2023. Despite their predictions, however, the Goldman analysts believe that prices could soar again after 2024. 

“This phase of oversupply will ultimately sow the seeds of the battery materials super cycle over the second half of this decade.” After this, the “demand surge will more sustainably overcome current supply growth,” the analysts noted. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla is ramping up its hiring for the Cybercab production team

As can be seen on Tesla’s Careers website, three new Cybercab-related positions are currently available at Giga Texas.

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Credit: @serobinsonjr/X

Tesla appears to be ramping up its Cybercab team at Giga Texas. As per recent observations by the Tesla community, three new job listings on the automaker’s Careers site suggest that the company is starting to add more critical personnel for the autonomous two-seater’s production.

New Cybercab jobs

As can be seen on Tesla’s Careers website, three new Cybercab-related positions are currently available. Tesla is looking for a Metrology Technician, who will work on the Cybercab’s Quality team; an Equipment Engineer who will work on the Cybercab’s Plastics team; and a Tool & Die Supervisor, who will work in the Injection Molding team.  

All three positions are based in Austin, Texas, which is quite unsurprising as Giga Texas is the only facility today that has the capability to produce the vehicle. The Cybercab’s production is quite different compared to Tesla’s other vehicles, as it is the first car that would be produced using the company’s “Unboxed” process. 

Credit: Tesla

Unlike any car that’s produced before

Elon Musk has previously said the Cybercab will be Tesla’s highest-volume vehicle, targeting an annual rate of 2 million units. He also mentioned that the vehicle’s manufacturing line will not resemble an automotive production line at all. Instead, it would resemble a high-speed consumer electronics line, which should pave the way for one Cybercab to be produced every few seconds.

“If you’ve seen the design of the Cybercab line, it doesn’t look like a normal car manufacturing line. It looks like a really high-speed consumer electronics line. In fact, the line will move so fast that actually people can’t even get close to it. I think it’ll be able to produce a car ultimately in less than 5 seconds,” Musk stated during Tesla’s All-Hands meeting earlier this year.

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Elon Musk: Grok 5 now has a 10% chance of becoming world’s first AGI

If his prediction comes to pass, xAI could very well become yet another world-changing company from Elon Musk. 

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Credit: xAI/X

Elon Musk has shared his most optimistic forecast about Grok 5’s capabilities yet. In a recent post on X, Musk stated that he now believes that the upcoming update to xAI’s large language model has a 10% chance of achieving artificial general intelligence. 

If his prediction comes to pass, xAI could very well become yet another world-changing company from Elon Musk. 

Musk’s previous Grok 5 estimate 

Just last month, Elon Musk estimated that xAI might have a chance at achieving artificial general intelligence with Grok 5. Musk’s comments at the time already made headlines, considering that no company in the world today has achieved AGI yet, though numerous AI startups today are actively pursuing artificial general intelligence.

In a recent post on X, Musk noted that his “estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising.” In another post, he also noted that “Grok 5 will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI.” Grok 5 is yet to be released, though Musk’s comments about the update are definitely setting expectations.

AGI will be world changing

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to an AI system that is capable of matching or surpassing human-level intelligence across tasks such as thinking, reasoning, and other domains by a notable margin, as noted in a previous report from Benzinga. With AGI achieved, industries from robotics to manufacturing would likely see a notable boost.

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As per a report from the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development (CIRSD), AGI could eventually pave the way for artificial super intelligence (ASI), which would be more intelligent than AGI and likely more intelligent than all of humanity combined. 

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Tesla Model Y L becomes China’s 4th best-selling mid-to-large SUV in its first month of sales

Tesla Model Y L was able to sell 8,221 units domestically in September.

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Credit: Tesla China

The Tesla Model Y L has only started deliveries last month, but it is already making its presence known in China’s mid-to-large SUV segment. As per data aggregated by Tesla watchers in China, the Model Y L has quickly risen as one of the country’s best-selling large SUVs just weeks into its first deliveries.

The momentum of the Model Y L has been so notable that it ended up being China’s fourth best-selling mid-to-large SUV in September.

Tesla Model Y L September sales

As per data compiled by Yiche, the Tesla Model Y L was able to sell 8,221 units domestically in September. This places it in fourth place in China’s rankings for best-selling large SUVs, just below the Leapmotor C16, the Li Auto L6, and the Xiaomi YU7, which sold 8,312, 11,827, and 22,244 units in September, respectively.

A look at the prices of China’s top four mid-to-large SUVs would show that the Model Y L is one of the pricier vehicles among the four. The Xiaomi YU7’s inclusion in the list is also quite interesting as the all-electric crossover primarily competes with the five-seat Model Y, not the Model Y L. Needless to say, the price difference between the Model Y L and the Xiaomi YU7 is quite substantial.

Just getting started

The Tesla Model Y L only started deliveries sometime in September. Following its launch in August, the Model Y L received positive reviews from professional reviewers, with many praising the vehicle’s spacious cabin and its reasonable price. It did not take long before the Model Y L was sold out for October, and later, November as well. Considering that the Model Y L now has an estimated delivery date of December 2025 for new orders, it seems safe to assume that every unit built by Giga Shanghai this quarter will be sold to consumers.

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The Model Y L has the makings of a best-seller. With a spacious second row that features two captain seats with retractable armrests, as well as a third row that could accommodate regular-sized adults, the Model Y L is a true family hauler. Combined with its starting price of $47,566 before options, the extended wheelbase all-electric crossover SUV does seem to have the makings of a best-seller.

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