In June 2020, I wrote a newsletter called “How Tesla’s Elon Musk dunks on the competition just as their momentum builds,” where I dissected Tesla’s strategies to derail competition in its footsteps. It seems that anytime a competing automaker is about to make a substantial step forward, Musk or Tesla releases an update that simply takes away any attention from anyone else. In this week’s newsletter, I want to talk about what Elon Musk and Tesla can do in 2021 to combat an expanding EV market, and take momentum away from the companies that claim they are “the next Tesla.”
Rivian
With Rivian coming to the market soon with its R1T pickup and R1S SUV later this year, Tesla has a unique opportunity to halt the oncoming automaker’s momentum. Rivian, headed by CEO RJ Scaringe, has an adventurous, outdoorsy appeal to its consumers and its reservation holders, a strategy that truly speaks to the EV drivers who choose electric powertrains because of their environmental impact. Rivian is likely the first electric car company that will see its products regularly used in offroad settings, just what they’re geared for.
Tesla has always had a relatively luxurious connotation with its name, as its cars are usually sporty, sleek, and perfect for open road driving where the accelerator can occasionally hit the floorboards (not suggested or recommended by me). However, Rivian’s R1T, which sports a traditional pickup truck design, isn’t as talked about or as popular as the Tesla Cybertruck. On frequent occasion, the Cybertruck seems to come out of nowhere with a newly-released modification or design update at the hands of Elon Musk. With Musk revealing that the Cybertruck has been modified and reduced in size by 3%, there is no reason that Tesla won’t show new pictures of the all-electric “Cyberpunk” inspired pickup when Rivian is about to gain momentum. The conversation will almost surely switch back to Tesla because of its name, the truck’s “polarizing” design, and Tesla’s notoriety in the segment.
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The R1S is a little bit tougher of a cookie to crack for Tesla because it doesn’t have anything that really matches the design of Rivian’s SUV. The only thing that could derail attention from the R1S are details about Tesla’s electric van. However, with the Cybertruck, Roadster, and $25k vehicle projects being talked about already and delays due to battery constraints, there isn’t much hope to hearing about the Tesla Van in the near future.
Even still, something simple as renders or Musk even mentioning the possibility of an electric van will drive media into a frenzy. It will likely be one of the only things talked about in the automotive world for several days. While Rivian will release its R1S, it will get coverage, but Musk and Tesla will take priority, I’d assume.
Lucid
Lucid is a company that seems to have the best chance of competing with Tesla in terms of electric car performance. The Lucid Air Dream Edition Limited is one of the premier electric vehicles in terms of performance, and it proved it by setting records at the Laguna Seca raceway in California. Arguably the most sporty electric car since the Model S, the Air has Tesla roots as Lucid’s CEO and CTO is Peter Rawlinson, a former Tesla employee who helped with the Model S project.
The problem for Lucid is that Tesla has the Roadster coming out within the near future. Lucid has already delayed production due to the pandemic, and it won’t come until later this year. Tesla has put the Roadster on hold several times, as it is still in development for a few meteoric features, like hovering, that Elon Musk seems hellbent on figuring out. While the Lucid Air has incredible performance and range that is impressive in its own right, it doesn’t hold a candle to the performance, range, or suspense that Tesla Roadster fans have felt. Updates to the Roadster are unbelievably sought after by enthusiasts, and any small detail is eaten up instantaneously by those who are interested in the vehicle. It is fair to assume that if Lucid announces its initial deliveries of the Air, Tesla could counter it with an update to the Roadster, big or small.
Not to mention, Tesla could singlehandedly take most of Lucid’s appeal away with a quick 10-second clip of the Model S Plaid+ doing a quarter-mile drag. Many people would be interested in the Air’s most robust performance package until they see the 1.7-second 0-60 MPH from Tesla’s new Model S powertrain.
Legacy Automakers and OEMs
There are a lot of advantages here, and one of the biggest could be Tesla’s introduction of Giga Texas later this year. More than a production plant, this facility is set to be an entire experience. A boardwalk, entertainment, tours, you name it. Giga Texas will be a production facility that puts much of its competition to bed simply because of its appeal. It will likely be the most immersive, personal “tour” experience that anyone ever has at a vehicle production plant. Who other than Tesla to make it happen?
Tesla doesn’t have to do much different than what it has done for the past few years to take momentum away from legacy automakers. Continuing to build highly-effective, revolutionary electric cars is all Tesla needs to do to convince people that it is ahead of legacy car companies in this front. Not much needs to change.
Tesla does have its work cut out for it in Europe, though. European EV sales figures are dominated by Volvo, Kia, Renault, BMW, and Volkswagen. Tesla doesn’t have a car in the Top 20 in Europe yet this year, according to the EV Sales Blog. With Giga Berlin coming later this year as well, this will surely change. My guess is the Model Y cracks the Top 5 no later than three months after Giga Berlin’s initial rollout, simply due to demand, the appeal of the crossover body style in Europe, and the distinct advantage Tesla has over legacy car companies in terms of software.
Despite the tumble on Wall Street, Tesla still has plenty of time to turn 2021 around. With the EV sector growing this year as new manufacturers release their first products, Tesla has an opportunity to show that they’re still able to compete with the young guns of the EV industry. Tesla is sure to remain the top dog, and it could take some simple derailing of competition, just like it has done for years.
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Elon Musk
Tesla’s Q1 delivery figures show Elon Musk was right
On the surface, the numbers reflect a mature EV market facing competition, softening demand, and the loss of certain incentives. Yet they also quietly validate a prediction Elon Musk has repeated for years: Tesla’s traditional auto business is becoming far less central to the company’s future.
Tesla reported its Q1 delivery figures on Thursday, and the figures — solid but unspectacular — show that CEO Elon Musk was right about what the company’s most important production and division would be.
We are seeing that shift occur in real time.
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, according to the company’s official report released April 2.
The figure represents modest year-over-year growth of roughly 6 percent from Q1 2025’s 336,681 deliveries but a sharp sequential drop from Q4 2025’s 418,227. Production reached 408,386 vehicles, while energy storage deployments hit 8.8 GWh.
On the surface, the numbers reflect a mature EV market facing competition, softening demand, and the loss of certain incentives. Yet they also quietly validate a prediction Elon Musk has repeated for years: Tesla’s traditional auto business is becoming far less central to the company’s future.
Musk has long argued that vehicles alone will not define Tesla’s value.
Optimus Will Be Tesla’s Big Thing
In September 2025, Musk stated bluntly on X that “~80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus,” the company’s humanoid robot.
He has described Optimus as potentially “more significant than the vehicle business over time.” Those comments were not abstract futurism. In January 2026, during the Q4 2025 earnings call, Musk announced the end of Model S and X production, framing it as an “honorable discharge,” he called it.
Those are the biggest factors.
~80% of Tesla’s value will be Optimus.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 1, 2025
The Fremont factory space, once dedicated to those flagship sedans, is being converted into an Optimus manufacturing line, with a long-term target of one million robots per year from that single facility alone.
The Q1 2026 numbers arrive at precisely the moment this strategic pivot is accelerating. Model 3 and Y deliveries totaled 341,893 units, while “other models” (including Cybertruck, Semi, and the final wave of S/X) added 16,130.
Growth is no longer explosive because Tesla is no longer chasing volume at all costs. Instead, the company is reallocating capital and factory floor space toward autonomy, energy storage, and robotics, businesses Musk believes will command far higher margins and enterprise value than incremental car sales.
Delivery Hits and Misses are Becoming Less Important
Wall Street’s pre-release consensus had pegged deliveries near 365,000. Coming in below that estimate might have rattled investors focused solely on automotive metrics. Yet Musk’s thesis has never been about maximizing quarterly vehicle shipments.
Tesla, he has insisted, “has never been valued strictly as a car company.”
The modest Q1 auto performance, paired with the deliberate wind-down of legacy programs and the ramp of Optimus, underscores that point. While EV demand stabilizes, Tesla is building the infrastructure for Robotaxis and humanoid robots that could dwarf today’s car business.
The future is here, and it is happening. It’s funny to think about how quickly Tesla was able to disrupt the traditional automotive business and force many car companies to show their hand. But just as fast as Tesla disrupted that, it is now moving to disrupt its own operation.
Cars, once the only recognizable and widely-known division of Tesla, is now becoming a background effort, slowly being overtaken by the company’s ambitions to dominate AI, autonomy, and robotics for years to come.
Critics may still view the shift as risky or premature. But the Q1 figures, solid but unspectacular in the auto segment, illustrate exactly what Musk has been signaling: the era when Tesla’s valuation rose and fell with every Model Y delivery is ending.
The company’s long-term bet is on AI-driven products that turn vehicles into high-margin robotaxis and factories into robot foundries. Thursday’s delivery report did not just meet the market’s tempered expectations; it proved Elon Musk was right all along.
The car business, once everything, is quietly becoming an important piece of a much larger puzzle.
Investor's Corner
Tesla reports Q1 deliveries, missing expectations slightly
The figure, however, fell short of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 365,645 units, reflecting ongoing headwinds in the global EV market.
Tesla reported deliveries for the first quarter of 2026 today, missing expectations set by Wall Street analysts slightly as the company aims to have a massive year in terms of sales, along with other projects.
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 6.3 percent increase from 336,681 vehicles in Q1 2025.
The figure, however, fell short of Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 365,645 units, reflecting ongoing headwinds in the global EV market. Production reached approximately 362,000 vehicles, with Model 3 and Model Y accounting for the vast majority. The results come as Tesla navigates softening demand, intensifying competition in China and Europe, and the expiration of key U.S. federal tax incentives.
🚨 BREAKING: Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026
Tesla also reported record energy deployments of 8.8 GWh
Wall Street had delivery consensus estimates of 365,645 pic.twitter.com/EVNAu5L3UT
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 2, 2026
Energy storage deployments provided a bright spot, hitting a record 8.8 GWh in Q1. This underscores the accelerating momentum in Tesla’s energy segment, which has become a critical growth driver even as automotive volumes stabilize.
Year-over-year, the energy business continues to outpace vehicle sales, with analysts noting strong backlog demand for Megapack systems amid rising grid-scale needs for renewables and AI data centers.
Looking ahead, analysts project full-year 2026 vehicle deliveries in the range of 1.69 million units—a modest 3-5% rise from roughly 1.64 million in 2025.
Growth is expected to accelerate in the second half as production ramps and new incentives emerge in select markets. However, risks remain: persistent high interest rates, price competition from legacy automakers and Chinese EV makers, and potential margin pressure could cap upside.
Tesla has not issued official full-year guidance, but executives have signaled confidence in sequential quarterly improvements driven by cost reductions and refreshed lineups.
By the end of 2026, Tesla plans several major product launches to reignite momentum. The refreshed Model Y, including a new 7-seater variant already rolling out in select markets, is expected to boost family-oriented sales with updated styling, efficiency gains, and interior enhancements.
Autonomous ambitions remain central to Tesla’s mission, and that’s where the vast majority of the attention has been put. Volume production of the Cybercab (Robotaxi) is targeted to begin ramping in 2026, potentially unlocking new revenue streams through unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) deployment.
A next-generation affordable EV platform, possibly under $30,000, is also in advanced planning stages for 2026 or 2027 introduction. On the energy front, the Megapack 3 and larger Megablock systems will drive further deployment scale.
While Q1 highlights transitional challenges in autos, Tesla’s diversified roadmap, spanning refreshed consumer vehicles, commercial trucks, Robotaxis, and explosive energy growth, positions the company for a stronger second half and beyond. Investors will watch Q2 closely for signs of sustained recovery, especially with new vehicles potentially on the horizon.
Elon Musk
NASA sends humans to the Moon for the first time since 1972 – Here’s what’s next
NASA’s Artemis II launched four astronauts toward the Moon on the first crewed lunar mission since 1972.
NASA’s Space Launch System rocket launches carrying the Orion spacecraft with NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, commander; Victor Glover, pilot; Christina Koch, mission specialist; and CSA (Canadian Space Agency) astronaut Jeremy Hansen, mission specialist on NASA’s Artemis II mission, Wednesday, April 1, 2026, from Operations and Support Building II at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. NASA’s Artemis II mission will take Wiseman, Glover, Koch, and Hansen on a 10-day journey around the Moon and back aboard SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft launched at 6:35pm EDT from Launch Complex 39B. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)
NASA launched four astronauts toward the Moon on April 1, 2026, marking the first crewed lunar mission since Apollo 17 in December 1972. The Artemis II mission lifted off from Kennedy Space Center aboard the Space Launch System rocket at 6:35 p.m. EDT, sending commander Reid Wiseman, pilot Victor Glover, mission specialist Christina Koch, and Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen on a 10-day journey around the far side of the Moon and back.
The mission does not include a lunar landing. It is a test flight designed to validate the Orion spacecraft’s life support systems, navigation, and communications in deep space with a crew aboard for the first time. If the crew reaches the planned distance of 252,000 miles from Earth, they will set a new record for the farthest any human has ever traveled, surpassing even the Apollo 13 distance record.
As Teslarati reported, SpaceX holds a central role in what comes next. The Starship Human Landing System is under contract to carry astronauts to the lunar surface for Artemis IV, now targeting 2028, after NASA restructured its mission sequence due to delays in Starship’s orbital refueling demonstration. Before any Moon landing happens, SpaceX must prove it can transfer propellant between two Starships in orbit, something no rocket program has done at this scale.
The last time humans left Earth’s orbit was 53 years ago. Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt of Apollo 17 were the final people to walk on the Moon, a record that stands to this day. Elon Musk has long argued that returning is not optional. “It’s been now almost half a century since humans were last on the Moon,” Musk said. “That’s too long, we need to get back there and have a permanent base on the Moon.”
The Artemis program involves 60 countries signed onto the Artemis Accords, and this mission sets several firsts beyond distance. Glover becomes the first person of color to travel beyond low Earth orbit, Koch the first woman, and Hansen the first non-American astronaut to reach the Moon’s vicinity. According to NASA’s live mission updates, the spacecraft’s solar arrays deployed successfully after liftoff and the crew completed a proximity operations demonstration within the first hours of flight.
Artemis II is step one. The Moon landing and the permanent lunar base come later. But after more than five decades, humans are heading back.
Tesla’s Q1 delivery figures show Elon Musk was right
Tesla reports Q1 deliveries, missing expectations slightly
NASA sends humans to the Moon for the first time since 1972 – Here’s what’s next
Elon Musk says Tesla is developing a new vehicle: ‘Way cooler than a minivan’
Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry
