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What’s next for SpaceX’s Falcon 9 now that it can land on its own?

SpaceX has a busy month ahead of it! When Elon Musk tweeted that he was going to need a bigger rocket hangar, he wasn’t kidding. Three are already back home from their successful missions to orbit and back, and now there are four more Falcon 9 rockets ready to take to the skies before the end of June. Mission control, we are go for launch!

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SpaceX has a busy month ahead of it! When Elon Musk tweeted that he was going to need a bigger rocket hangar, he wasn’t kidding. Three are already back home from their successful missions to orbit and back, and now there are four more Falcon 9 rockets ready to take to the skies before the end of June. Mission Control, we are go for launch!

But first, let’s relive those prior landings for just a moment, shall we?


 

May 6, 2016

April 8, 2016

December 21, 2015

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Launch Details

Next up for SpaceX is the 25th Falcon 9 launch from Cape Canaveral, Florida scheduled for May 26th at 5:40 pm.

The payload for this launch will be the Thaicom 8 satellite, a commercial communications satellite built by Orbital ATK, and its mission is to provide Ku-band communications coverage for Thailand, India, and Africa. SpaceX previously launched another satellite in this series on January 6, 2014 called Thaicom 6. Want a little trivia on the Thaicom 6 mission? It was the final qualification launch that enabled SpaceX to be able to compete for U.S. Air Force launch contracts.

What is Ku-band?

The radio spectrum portion of the satellite Falcon 9 will launch on May 26, 2016.

Ku-band frequency (highlighted) Credit: U.S. Department of Commerce

Ku-band is a radio frequency used mostly for satellite communications, a certain section of which is designated for broadcasting services. To put things into perspective of other “bands”, it has the same purpose as the Ka-band (higher frequency) or C-band (lower frequency), but is more susceptible to weather conditions. For reference, DirecTV satellites use both Ka and Ku-band frequencies, their HDTV being broadcast almost entirely on the Ka-band.

If all goes well, this will be another Falcon 9 mission to Geostationary Transfer Orbit (GTO), just like the mission that launched and landed on May 6, 2016. GTO launches fly to 35,790 km above the Earth, pretty high in comparison to the maximum 528 km orbit of the space shuttle program. This means that when Falcon 9 returns, it will be coming in hot and fast again, needing a lot of counter thrust to stick the landing on Of Course I Still Love You, one of SpaceX’s floating autonomous spaceport drone ships (ASDS). Both successful water landings have been on this same ASDS.

One of SpaceX's drone ships for first stage landing after launch.

“Of Course I Still Love You” ASDS – Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX’s last landing was not actually expected to be successful, making the moment it happened so great, “Woohoo!!” was Elon’s first reaction on Twitter. One wonders what the expected outcome is for this landing given the new notch on their belt…

What else is coming up for Falcon 9?

Admittedly, other than the challenging aspects of the landing, the May 26th Falcon 9 mission is pretty routine and not very unique to SpaceX. Most other commercial space companies provide similar launch services for these types of satellites. However, over the next month or so we will see SpaceX resupply the International Space Station, carry one of only two existing satellites with an all-electric propulsion system, and deliver 87 small payloads and CubeSats into orbit via a specialized satellite deployer only three U.S. space companies are certified to carry.

This is gonna be good. Stay tuned!

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Author’s note: I have to assert bragging rights on the May 26th launch because yours truly will get to see it after attending the 44th Annual Space Congress. I’m very excited!

Accidental computer geek, fascinated by most history and the multiplanetary future on its way. Quite keen on the democratization of space. | It's pronounced day-sha, but I answer to almost any variation thereof.

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Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk reminds everyone about Roadster’s true meaning

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Elon Musk addresses the crowd next to the new Tesla Roadster, which Tesla offers in Performance, Thrust and Rocket versions. (Image: Tesla/X)
Elon Musk addresses the crowd next to the new Tesla Roadster, which Tesla offers in Performance, Thrust and Rocket versions. (Image: Tesla/X)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to his social media platform X on Sunday to remind everyone that the Roadster’s true meaning is not about company growth or adding dollars to shareholders’ pockets. Sometimes, you just do things because you can.

Following the Roadster’s epic unveiling event last Thursday, skeptics and critics of the company or the project itself came out to say that the vehicle is a pointless project because it is not geared toward growing the company, delivering supreme margins for profitability, nor does it contribute to the big picture of Artificial/Super Intelligence.

But that’s just the thing: Roadster is not meant to be some shareholder dream; it’s meant to be a vehicle that people buy just because it is something awesome, unique, and the first of its kind.

Tesla Roadster: Three configs, one can fly, 0-60 in 0.8 seconds

Musk had to remind those who are skeptical about the Roadster’s importance to the company mission that while it is not a major contributor to Tesla’s long-term goals, it is something that is being built just because it can be:

“Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value. The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power, and mass to space. And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow. But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.”

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Musk has said on many occasions that Optimus would be the project that would make up the vast majority of Tesla’s value in the coming years.

Robotics will be a major focus of Tesla over the coming years, especially as Musk believes Optimus will enable work to be optional for humans and will enable what he calls “High Universal Income.”

Cybercab will be a passive income opportunity for owners, Musk and Tesla have said for a very long time, as a fleet of self-driving vehicles will operate within a ride-hailing Robotaxi service that won’t require a human driver to be present.

Tesla investors are more than enthusiastic about the company’s future projects, at least from a general consensus perspective. However, it is important to note that the Roadster is a fun and cool project that pushes the boundaries of what people thought was possible for an automobile.

What we saw last week was the first true example of a flying car, and despite the backlash about how it might not contribute to Tesla’s grand ambitions, it’s okay to have fun sometimes, too.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching

SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger

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SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.

The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures

All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.

If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.

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SpaceX’s Gwynne Shotwell just made a quiet gesture toward Tesla

SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell quietly followed Tesla on X, and merger watchers noticed right away.

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SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell has started following Tesla’s official account on X, a small change that landed in the middle of a very loud merger conversation. Whole Mars Catalog joked about it on Sunday.

A follow is not an announcement, and neither company has said anything about a deal. What gives the moment weight is the timing. Barclays analyst Dan Levy has told clients that an agreement could come before Tesla’s annual meeting, which must be held by December 6, with SpaceX as the buyer in an all stock deal, as we reported after the Roadster unveiling. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has stuck with a 2027 timeline.

Shotwell is the executive most worth watching if the two companies do move closer. When Musk was asked at the All In Summit why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate, Shotwell sat next to him and said SpaceX personnel had already moved into xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps. The businesses were integrating “faster than I thought,” she said, though “not fully integrated yet.” Her responsibilities have also grown since SpaceX absorbed xAI, and she now oversees operations that include Grok and the company’s AI compute buildout.

The financial links are already there. Tesla’s $2 billion xAI investment turned into a stake of less than one percent in SpaceX, the two share the Terafab chip project in Austin, and Musk exercised his 2018 Tesla options a week after SpaceX began trading, a sequence analysts flagged as giving SpaceX public shares to use in a deal. Musk holds about 20 percent of Tesla and controls 85.1 percent of SpaceX’s voting power, according to our earlier breakdown.

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The next test is close at hand. SpaceX reports its second earnings as a public company on Tuesday after the close, and Tesla follows on Wednesday. Musk told analysts in July that “we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call,” so a direct answer is unlikely from either stage. Tesla shareholders can still submit and vote on questions through the Say portal until 4 p.m. EDT on Monday, and the merger is a recurring theme in the queue.

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