Nine profitable quarters and counting. With its blockbuster Q3 2021 results, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has all but proven that is a sustainable business. An earnings per share (EPS) of $1.86 and a monster 30.5% automotive gross margin just proves that. Tesla was bold in its Q3 2021 Update Letter, and for good reason. In the third quarter, Tesla achieved its best-ever net income, operating profit, and gross profit — all while its ASP decreased by 6% year-over-year.
As discussed in the company’s Q3 2021 Update Letter, Tesla achieved some milestones in the third quarter. The Fremont Factory has produced more than 430,000 vehicles on its own in the last four quarters, and it’s still being improved. Giga Shanghai has settled into its role as the company’s export hub, Giga Texas is in the pre-production stage of the Model Y, and Giga Berlin is ready to hit the ground running. Tesla Energy also continues to ramp.
The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q3 2021 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real-time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story. The first entry starts at the bottom of the page.
15:33 PT: And that wraps up Tesla’s first Elon-less earnings call! Thanks so much for staying with us for today’s coverage. Until the next time then!
15:31 PT: Jonathan Dorsheimer from Cannacord. Kirkhorn noted that Tesla is aiming to produce its first vehicles in both Berlin and Texas by the end of the year. With this in mind, there is quite an execution journey ahead of the company. There should be no expectation that there will be cars delivered from Giga Berlin and Giga Texas this year, however, partly due to regulatory reasons. As for how this impacts margins, it’s difficult to predict. It’s tricky to really tell how ramping production will effect margins.
15:28 PT: Trip Chowdry asks about the differences about Giga Berlin and Giga Texas. He also asks about the supply for the Cybertruck’s exoskeleton.
Tesla notes that the Cybertruck is designed for durability. There are some early decisions that were made, but there’s progress being made. Suppliers are being tapped to ensure that the Cybertruck could be ramped fairly well. That being said, Tesla has already begun the casting of the Cybertruck’s initial exoskeleton.
As for the differences between Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, their differences are more unique to their respective regional locations.
15:24 PT: Brian Johnson from Barclays takes the floor. He thanks Tesla for not making the earnings call into a “one man show.” He asks about the progress on FSD and its timetable for Level 4 capability.
Kirkhorn noted that it’s difficult to be specific on FSD’s timelines. Tesla can only state that it’s working very hard on this, and the company has been very transparent on its development. “Tesla Autopilot is working extremely hard. “You can feel the progress,” Kirkhorn said. The team is moving quickly too, so improvements should be substantial.
Lars Moravy adds that Tesla always works with regulatory bodies, including the NHTSA. He noted that Tesla is providing the information as incidents occur, and it is one of the only companies that responded to these probes.
15:20 PT: Collin Rusch from Oppenheimer asks about battery anode materials. With regards to this inquiry, Tesla notes that the anode materials are not at the same place in terms of commodities. The company also reiterated the notion that its primary focus on the anode side is to reduce costs, at least without impeding the long-term recyclability.
As for the company’s vehicle pricing strategies, the CFO noted that there seems to be a profound awakening among consumers about electric vehicles. “There has been a profound awakening of desirability for EVs,” Kirkhorn said. It’s so notable that Tesla has practically been caught off guard. The company has installed capacity to produce products like its vehicles more, but the grind is real.
Addressing Tesla’s price volatility, the CFO noted that all car companies do this. Tesla just happens to be pretty transparent about it. These fluctuations are due to a variety of factors.
15:15 PT: Colin Langan from Wells Fargo takes the floor. He asks about any possible impact from the battery material price hikes. Kirkhorn noted that Tesla has indeed seen the impact of this, though the company is focused on nickel. The CFO notes that some of these costs have been passed on to the company. It’s also possible for Tesla to see some cost headwinds in the coming year, at least considering the volatility of the market right now. Kirkhorn noted that Tesla must lower the price of its products, and optimize its operations even further. “We have no choice but to continue on that path,” the CFO said.
15:11 PT: Joseph Spak from RBC takes the floor. He asks if Tesla has a aspirational gross margin target when in the long term? Kirkhorn notes that Tesla is implementing lots of efficiencies and production ramps in multiple sites. This would likely put downward pressure on the company’s gross margins in the near term. Cost increases on the commodity side are also present. “There are a number of unknown unknowns that we need to work through. We are seeing costs increase on the commodity side,” the CFO said.
Kirkhorn also noted that Tesla’s operating expenses are decreasing, and the company hopes to improve this in the next four to five quarters. Tesla, at least for now, is focused on lowering overhead expenses and operating expenses.
15:07 PT: Looks like Tesla’s Safety Score system is working so far. There are about 150,000 cars currently using the Safety Score system, and the company has so far noted that the probability of a collision for a customer using the safety score is about 30% lower. That’s not bad at all. “We’re off to a good start here,” Kirkhorn said.
15:05 PT: And Pierre Ferragu is here! He asks about Tesla Insurance, especially since the company has launched the service in Texas. He asks how Tesla will distribute this service. Will there be a marketing push? What’s the expansion plan? How fast will it happen?
Kirkhorn noted that he is extremely passionate about Tesla Insurance. Tesla is doing a lot if work in its efforts to enter the insurance market. “We want as many people as possible to afford our products,” the CFO said, noting that this is key to the company’s mission. As such, lowering insurance costs helps Tesla and its customers at the same time.
The CFO noted that traditional insurance typically utilizes limited data. And this causes some insurance rates for Teslas to be quite unfair. “Low-risk customers end up paying more, essentially subsidizing high-risk customers,” Kirkhorn said. Tesla Insurance aims to change this. There’s the Safety Score system, as well as the immense amount of data that Tesla can access from its vehicles. With this data, insurance pricing becomes a lot fairer.
14:59 PT: Looks like some tech issues there. Tesla is now checking in to solve the analysts’ technical issues. To pass the time, more investor questions are taken. An inquiry about transferring FSD to another vehicle was asked. Kirkhorn noted that a premium is paid by the company when it buys back vehicles that are equipped with FSD. “We’re already actually doing the sentiment of this question,” he said.
14:57 PT: Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research is up. His mic is not working, however. Joseph Spak of RBC is called on to take Pierre’s spot temporarily. But his mic is also not working. Strange.
14:56 PT: Final question from investors is about FSD and its pricing. Kirkhorn declined to comment on any pricing strategies in the near term. However, he did state that Tesla is learning what it can from FSD subscriptions today. The CFO also noted that Tesla has observed how owners become curious about the company’s software offerings when they purchase vehicles.
14:53 PT: As for Supercharger wait ties, a dedicated team is monitoring congestions. Average congestion has decreased over the past 18 months, and the company is focused on accelerating the expansion of the rapid charging network. Tesla plans to double its Superchargers in the near future, potentially tripling the network later on. The company is also focused on lowering Supercharging time, and rolling out strategies like encouraging owners to charge their vehicles in off-peak hours.
14:51 PT: As for Tesla service issues and Supercharger wait times, Kirkhorn noted that these issues are not unique to Tesla. Returning to normalcy amidst a pandemic is no joke, after all. More people are driving now, and thus, the need for service has also increased. Logistics-wise, sourcing parts has also been challenging.
Tesla is so far focused on just expanding its service network, with the company’s service footprint growing by 35%. Mobile service footprint has grown by 40%. The company is adding staffing as fast as it can as well.
14:48 PT: As for NHTSA officials that seem engaged with TSLAQ and the potential tightening of regulations, Baglino noted that Tesla is also working with safety regulators in the United States. He did state that Tesla keeps safety as a key pillar in its vehicle development, so all I could really do is be as transparent as possible. “We expect and embrace this scrutiny. We take safety as a top priority. We will continue to be transparent on how our software is developing,” Baglino said.
“Safety is extremely important for Tesla. It’s the right thing to do,” Kirkhorn noted, adding that Tesla’s “goal is to go beyond what the software can provide.”
14:44 PT: As for the capacity of the company’s production facilities by 2024, Kirkhorn noted that Tesla’s goal is to grow about 50% every year. Estimates can be extrapolated from this goal. That being said, Tesla has pushed the boundaries in facilities like the Fremont Factory, which is still being optimized. “”Our goal is to grow on an average pace of 50% per year,” he said.
The CFO also mentioned Giga Shanghai, which is currently producing the Model Y. Kirkhorn noted that Austin and Berlin are both launching with the Model Y, but they were built in areas where massive expansions are possible. He quotes an estimate of 10,000 vehicles per week as a possible target.
14:41 PT: Next question is about FSD Beta. The CTO noted that it’s not a matter of how much data can be collected, but how quickly the data can be processed. Baglino noted that this is really where Dojo comes in.
14:40 PT: Retail investor questions begin. First up is are the 4680 cells. According to Drew Baglino, the testing of 4680 cells has gone well. The development of the $25K car is also progressing fairly, with estimates still poised for a potential 2023 release. For now, however, Baglino noted that Tesla is heavily focused on vehicles like the Cybertruck and Model Y.
14:38 PT: Giga Berlin and Texas are poised to start ramping. Echoing Elon’s typical comments, Zach noted that the two sites are nearing the built of their first production cars. The CFO noted, however, that the hardest work lies in ramping Austin and Berlin production lines. “Overall, I’m very proud of what the team has accomplished,” Kirkhorn said.
14:35 PT: Zach takes the floor, noting that Tesla is making great progress as a company. He states that Tesla has achieved an annualized production run rate of 1 million cars per year. He does note that Model S and Model X would take some time to get back to their previous volumes, but he is optimistic.
He adds that while Tesla has practically doubled its deliveries, the company is still heavily challenged by the supply chain shortage. Factories are still not at full capacity. Tesla is just making things work by sheer hard work. Backlog is also increasing. As for energy storage, Powerwall and Megapack production is getting better. The production of 4680 cells is also making some headway. Model S is back to positive gross margins too.
14:32 PT: It begins! NO ELON on today’s call. Just Zach and Drew. Martin Viecha is doing the preliminaries.
14:30 PT: As we wait for the start of the Q3 2021 earnings call, a particularly interesting question that would be answered in a few minutes is if Tesla CEO Elon Musk would be on the call itself. He did say that he’d probably stop attending these things last quarter, but there’s a ton of stuff that Elon would probably like to address today. If the Q3 2021 Update Letter is any indication, Tesla achieved a ton this quarter, and much of those milestones deserve some in-depth insights.
14:25 PT: Good day, everyone, and welcome to another live blog of Tesla’s earnings call! Well, look what we have here. Nine profitable quarters. Something like this would have gotten a Tesla bull beaten up on Twitter just a couple years ago, but here we are. Now we wait.
Disclaimer: I am long TSLA.
Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s Anthropic deal has a catch, and Elon Musk just addressed it
Elon Musk says SpaceX’s Anthropic compute deal cuts both ways after Chamath floats higher prices.
Elon Musk pushed back on Sunday against the idea that SpaceX’s compute contract with Anthropic is a one way bet, after venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya argued the company could use a termination clause to charge the AI lab far more.
“It works both ways, of course. If compute becomes plentiful and cheap, SpaceX revenue will drop. No crying in the casino for either party,” Musk wrote on X Sunday evening, replying to a clip of Palihapitiya’s comments shared by AI commentator Rohan Paul.
On the All-In podcast released Sunday, Palihapitiya said either side can walk away from the agreement on 90 days’ notice. If data center supply tightens, he argued, SpaceX could exercise that option and bring the contract back at two to three times the current price, and Anthropic would have little choice but to accept. He called it “the kingmaking move,” according to BigGo Finance.
The clause itself is not new. SpaceX disclosed in its IPO filings in May that Anthropic would pay $1.25 billion per month for dedicated capacity at its Colossus clusters through May 2029, nearly $45 billion in total, with both companies able to terminate on 90 days’ notice, as Teslarati reported at the time. SpaceX’s later compute deals with Google and Reflection AI carry similar exit terms.
What has changed is the political backdrop. Palihapitiya’s thesis rests on incoming Democratic governors pulling tax incentives for data centers and slowing new construction. In Texas, Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned on a moratorium on new data center approvals, and Deutsche Bank analysts warned last week that SpaceX’s Texas compute capacity could face delays. SpaceX and Tesla shares both fell after the midterm results.
A slowdown would favor companies that already own capacity. SpaceX acquired xAI in February and has been renting data centers to outside AI labs before the space is needed for Grok. At the Baron Investment Conference on Friday, Musk said SpaceX was “getting 50 billion a year for 35 billion dollar investments” and that it can bring a data center online in eight or nine months, compared to two and a half years for competitors. He also said SpaceX is tracking toward an annualized revenue rate above $100 billion in December, with a “best guess” of $500 billion by December 2027.
Musk’s reply points to the other side of the clause. Anthropic has signed large compute agreements with Amazon, Google and Microsoft, and if that capacity comes online faster than new construction slows, the AI lab would have its own leverage to renegotiate or leave. Musk has called Anthropic “obviously currently the leader in AI,” and it remains one of SpaceX’s largest compute customers.
SpaceX shares rose more than 2 percent in overnight trading late Sunday after closing Friday at $134.27, according to Stocktwits.
Tesla and SpaceX shares fell on Wednesday after Democrats swept both chambers of Congress. The decline stood out as broader market securities recovered and turned positive, while both of Musk’s publicly traded companies lagged.
CEO Elon Musk already joked about the unsuccessful campaigning for the Republicans, but now the new party will make pretty drastic changes to how it handles Tesla and SpaceX, and those companies will adjust their outlook.
Let’s take a deeper look.
Tesla ($TSLA)
Tesla shares traded lower during the regular session after Democrats secured both the House and Senate. The stock was down 2.32 percent at around 1:45 p.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $389.30.
The pressure is tied to more than the raw scale of Musk’s political spending, estimated at $450–474 million this cycle with roughly $224 million directed at Texas. In that state, Tesla now faces a Democratic governor and a Democratic senator after Gina Hinojosa unseated Greg Abbott and James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton.
The Austin Gigafactory, Robotaxi pilot programs in multiple Texas cities, and any related AI compute expansion sit under a new state executive who campaigned against certain corporate subsidies and floated a moratorium on new data-center construction.
Federally, Democratic control of key committees opens the door to deeper examination of Tesla’s autonomous-driving safety record, federal energy-storage and manufacturing incentives, and the national-security implications of any combination with SpaceX.
Investors are also weighing whether the company’s historically close alignment with the prior Republican leadership will invite slower permitting, additional hearings, or tighter rules on Full Self-Driving deployment.
For Tesla, the political shift adds near-term friction around state permitting and federal regulatory approvals for autonomy and energy storage. A potential merger with SpaceX may face slower review even if it proceeds.
Core growth drivers such as vehicle deliveries, energy deployments, and robotaxi rollout remain intact, yet the stock now carries a higher political-risk premium that could weigh on valuation until the company demonstrates workable relationships with the new Texas leadership and congressional majorities.
SpaceX ($SPCX)
SpaceX shares also declined in live trading on November 4 following the Democratic midterm sweep. The stock traded at $134.97, down 4.49 percent. The drop occurred even as broader indexes stabilized, highlighting a company-specific reaction to the election outcome.
Musk’s large contributions, concentrated in Texas races that both companies lost, place SpaceX’s Starbase launch facility and headquarters under a new Democratic governor.
At the federal level, Democratic control of Congress enables greater scrutiny of NASA, the Department of Defense, and other contracts that support a meaningful share of revenue, along with reviews of Starlink national-security uses and any Tesla merger. Analysts have noted that empowered committees can hold hearings and request documents on these relationships.
For SpaceX, the results raise the risk of delayed contract awards, higher compliance costs, and tighter constraints on AI and satellite infrastructure expansion, particularly in Texas where a data-center moratorium has been discussed.
A merger with Tesla could encounter political friction that slows integration of launch, connectivity, and autonomy capabilities.
While Starlink growth and launch cadence continue as primary drivers, the company faces a more contested path for federal funding and state-level operations, requiring management to rebuild ties with the new congressional majorities and Texas leadership to limit the overhang.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk calls Earth’s data centers “peanuts” next to what SpaceX is planning in orbit
Elon Musk says SpaceX capex efficiency is underestimated as orbital data centers loom by 2028.
Elon Musk is pushing back on one of the biggest worries hanging over SpaceX stock. In a reply on X on Sunday, Musk said the company’s capital expenditure efficiency is severely underestimated. He was responding to a Milk Road Stocks post citing analyst Kyle Reidhead, who estimates SpaceX will need to spend roughly $470 billion over the next five quarters.
Reidhead built that figure around the target SpaceX set on its third quarter earnings call: 13 gigawatts or more of compute by the end of 2027. In his breakdown, Nvidia captures 83 to 89 percent of the spending. SpaceX ended the quarter with 1.7 GW of nameplate compute and guided to $35 billion to $40 billion in fourth quarter capex, as Teslarati reported.
Musk did not attach a number to his claim, but the earnings call shows the argument. CFO Bret Johnsen said new compute currently pays for itself in under a year at today’s pricing, and Musk said that window could shrink to six months next year. Using that pace, Reidhead argues about $230 billion of the $470 billion could come from operating cash flow and about $60 billion from SpaceX’s roughly $90 billion cash pile, leaving around $180 billion to borrow. Musk confirmed last week that SpaceX had already closed a new $40 billion debt raise to buy GPUs.
The ground buildout is not the end goal. It is what is meant to pay for the move to orbit. Replying on Friday to charts built from Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s SpaceX model, Musk wrote that “Terrestrial compute will be peanuts compared to orbital compute,” adding that orbital compute deployed per month “probably exceeds terrestrial around the end of 2028 and then far exceeds it in 2029.”
Maguire’s model shows how steep that path is. It has capex climbing from $88 billion this year to $290 billion in 2027 and $369 billion in 2028, with SpaceX burning $77.8 billion in cash this year and $122.6 billion next year before turning $114.9 billion cash positive in 2028. Musk’s response to the model was, “I think we can do better.”
The orbital half runs through Starmind. SpaceX plans to operate up to 1 million AI satellites flying in clusters of about 10, linked by roughly 10 terabits of bandwidth, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027 out of its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, according to SpaceX’s space safety page. Musk has said each Starmind spacecraft will carry more than 250 kW of solar power.
Getting there depends on launch volume. Maguire’s model assumes 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from two this year and 38 next year. The nearer test is financial: SpaceX guided to $33 billion to $37 billion in first quarter 2027 revenue, more than double the $14.58 billion it booked in Q3, and Musk reposted that guidance again on Sunday morning.
Starlink Mini 2 arrives with one feature for true off-grid connectivity
SpaceX’s $24B Starbase supercomputer plan slipped past a key roadblock
