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EV tax credit rule adjustment provides short-term win, but long-term warning
There are broader implications of the credit’s new rules, which could be viewed as an “extension,” although, fundamentally, the credit could mask the true issue that many EV makers will face: generally speaking, electric cars are still too expensive.
The IRS adjusted the EV tax credit rule last week, which was a big win for consumers. It now allows car buyers to lock up an agreement to buy a vehicle instead of having to take delivery before the deadline of September 30.
This has tremendous advantages for both consumers and companies. For consumers, they are no longer rushed to take delivery of a car that might not be their exact pick just to qualify for the tax credit. Instead, they can build the car they want, make a marginal down payment on it, and still take delivery, even after September 30, and still get the $7,500 off.
For carmakers, they are no longer restricted by production capacity or supply bottlenecks, and can get a vehicle to a buyer after the deadline instead of delivering bad news. The consumer just needs to commit monetarily first.
However, there are broader implications of the credit’s new rules, which could be viewed as an “extension,” although, fundamentally, the credit could mask the true issue that many EV makers will face: generally speaking, electric cars are still too expensive.
Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics
Everyone is expecting EV makers’ Q3 sales to be slightly higher than normal, as this is the final quarter when the $7,500 EV credit will be available. Buyers are rushing to take advantage of the credit before it expires.
The urgency of car buyers to take advantage of the credit seems to be a positive in the short term. However, there are some indications that this could lead to a “boom-and-bust” cycle, and how EVs sell in subsequent quarters could be a very disappointing reality.
If EVs were at a price point where they were more affordable and people did not need $7,500 off to buy one, we would not be seeing this influx of orders. The fundamental issue with the tax credit is the fact that it is a bit of a crutch for automakers, and that crutch is about to be removed — abruptly.
Sustained incentives for EVs are something that was never going to be available under the Trump Administration. The true demand of EVs will be revealed in Q4, and likely over the first two quarters of 2026.
Policy Instability is a Barrier for Consumers…and Automakers
With the One Big Beautiful Bill that the Trump Administration rolled out, the tax credit’s sunset came abruptly.
Previously, the credit’s termination was set for 2032, but the change, which is absolutely justified in terms of the White House’s powers, sets a tough precedent moving forward: different administrations and different planning for how government funds are spent could dramatically alter plans.
For consumers, their confidence in the stability of these types of programs will be decreased. If a Democrat gets elected in 2028, will the credit return? It’s likely that the credit could become an “On for 4, Off for 4” type of arrangement, depending on the party in the White House, as well as the concentration of that party in the House and Senate.
For automakers, the long-term planning of their supply chains, including whether domestic manufacturing is prioritized and how much capital to allocate toward EVs, becomes a significant question.
If it needs volume to bring down EV prices, the absence of a credit will impact that drastically. Fewer people being able to afford EVs because of their premium prices could put companies in a very strange predicament.
Their roadmaps for their future lineups will be impacted, and they may have to go back to the drawing board for future plans.
Environmental and Economic Stakes
It is important to remember that the EV tax credit was not just a way to make cars more affordable. It was a tool to reduce emissions from passenger transportation. This is the largest source of greenhouse gases in the United States.
Ending the credit risks slowing progress toward climate goals and ceding ground to global competitors, especially China, a global tech hub that has a large population willing to embrace new tech.
Xiaomi CEO congratulates Tesla on first FSD delivery: “We have to continue learning!”
The U.S. needs a stable, long-term strategy to incentivize both consumers and manufacturers to reach climate goals. Short-term band-aids are not going to drive innovation or adoption forward.
Call to Action
To secure a thriving and equitable future for the EV industry, Congress could consider a variety of alternatives that benefit buyers who could use assistance. A tiered incentive program that prioritizes affordability and American innovation would benefit buyers who prefer an EV while making them accessible to lower and middle-income families and buyers.
Higher credits for EVs priced under $40,000 to reach these income levels would be ideal. Additionally, bonuses for vehicles and batteries that are domestically sourced would also encourage car companies to bring manufacturing to the United States, while also helping car buyers lean toward vehicles built here.
The rush to secure credits by consumers proves that incentives work. The United States should be working toward a long-lasting framework that makes EVs accessible to all, while giving the country a competitive edge to compete against powerhouses like China.
News
SpaceX readies Starship Flight 14 for a historic journey into uncharted territory
SpaceX finished Starship’s Flight 14 rehearsal, clearing the way for its first orbital flight Monday.
SpaceX has cleared one of the last hurdles before Starship’s first trip to orbit. The company posted on X Thursday afternoon that its launch rehearsal for Flight 14 was complete, keeping the mission on track for Monday, September 28. The launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. CT at Starbase, Texas, and runs for 75 minutes.
A wet dress rehearsal is essentially launch day without the launch. Crews fill Booster 21 and Ship 41 with thousands of tons of extremely cold propellant, run the countdown nearly to ignition, then drain everything back out. It lets engineers catch leaks or equipment problems before anything leaves the pad. SpaceX still needs a launch license from the FAA before the stack, which stands 407 feet tall, can fly.
Flight 14 matters because of where it is going. All 13 previous Starship flights followed a suborbital path, which works like throwing a ball extremely high and far: the vehicle reaches space, but it is always on a course that brings it back down within about an hour. This time, Ship 41 will perform a short engine firing called an orbital insertion burn roughly 25 minutes after liftoff, giving it enough speed to keep falling around Earth instead of back into it. SpaceX plans about six laps at an altitude near 275 kilometers (171 miles) over nearly 10 hours, as Teslarati detailed when the mission was first announced.
Launch rehearsal complete ahead of Starship Flight 14 pic.twitter.com/h5LBYyBqi4
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) September 24, 2026
Getting into orbit also means Starship has to prove it can get back out. The ship must relight a single Raptor engine in space to slow down for reentry. SpaceX says it will only attempt the orbital insertion burn after flight controllers confirm the hardware needed for that return burn has enough backup, and its flight plan includes health checks that could shorten the mission to two or five orbits.
Flight 14 is also the first to put working satellites into service. Flight 13 carried 20 Starlink V3 satellites in July, but they came back down with the ship because that mission never reached orbit. This time, 26 V3 satellites are meant to stay up and join the constellation within a few weeks. Together they add about 26 terabits per second of network capacity, which SpaceX says is roughly 10 times what a single Falcon 9 launch of older V2 Mini satellites adds. Three of them carry cameras that will photograph Starship’s heat shield in orbit to check for tile damage before reentry.
The hardware has changed too. Ship 41 flies with extra fasteners on tiles in the most vulnerable areas, fixes for gaps where superheated plasma slipped behind tiles, and curved tiles designed to reduce heating between them. Two tiles recovered from Ship 40 will fly again, the first reuse of any part of a Starship heat shield. Booster 21 carries better engine filtering and new relight software after ice clogged three center engines on the previous booster, leaving only eight of 13 engines to restart for its landing burn.
Ship 41 is targeting a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile, a new recovery zone after several Indian Ocean landings, while Booster 21 aims for the Gulf. Neither will be caught by the tower on this flight. Elon Musk said in August that a ship catch was likely “in a few months.”
Elon Musk
Google just picked SpaceX for its first step into orbital AI
Google will launch its first Project Suncatcher AI satellite on SpaceX’s Transporter-18 rideshare next week.
Google is about to put its own AI chips into orbit for the first time, and it is paying SpaceX to get them there.
The company said Thursday that the first in-orbit test of Project Suncatcher, its research effort to find out whether space can host large-scale AI computing, will fly next week on SpaceX’s Transporter-18 rideshare mission.
The satellite, called MVP, is about the size of a refrigerator and carries four of Google’s Tensor Processing Units, the same chips Google runs in its ground data centers. Google originally planned to launch two custom satellites in 2027, but chose to move faster by integrating its chips into a satellite.
MVP’s solar panels supply about one kilowatt of power, and Google will run Gemini models on the TPUs only in bursts of roughly 15 minutes before the chips shut down so the radiators can shed heat. In a blog post, Google said its Trillium TPUs survived vibration testing that mimicked sustained launch loads of up to 10g, with individual components seeing 50 to 100g, and handled a radiation dose greater than a five year mission would deliver.
SpaceX and Google mull massive partnership on Musk’s orbital data dream: report
Next week’s flight, slated for October 1, follows a relationship that became public in May, when Teslarati reported that Google was in talks with SpaceX for a launch deal tied to orbital data centers. Google also holds a stake of roughly 6% in SpaceX.
The two companies are chasing the same idea from very different starting points. SpaceX’s own orbital compute program is built around the AI1 satellite, a roughly 70 meter structure derived from Starlink V3 hardware that is designed for 150 kW of peak compute, about 150 times the power MVP will draw. Elon Musk has brushed off concerns about crowding orbit with those satellites, and SpaceX is building its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, to produce them, targeting an annualized rate of about 1 GW of space compute by the end of 2027.
Musk also posted on X on Thursday that “the amount of compute in space will obviously round up to 100% of all compute.”
Google has been more cautious in public. Its research estimates that launch prices need to fall below about $200 per kilogram before an orbital data center can compete with a ground facility on energy cost, a threshold the company believes could be reached around the mid 2030s. The Suncatcher team has said it expects the effort to remain a project rather than a product for years, which leaves the first real test of its hardware riding on a rocket from the company with the most aggressive timeline in the field.
Tesla has taken another concrete step toward owning its battery supply chain, and it’s doing so with what is perhaps the most important vehicle in its short-but-storied history.
On September 23, Tesla announced that it has officially built the first Cybercab with cathode material produced in-house at the company’s first cathode plant in the U.S., and the first in the U.S. overall.
First Cybercab made using our in-house cathode material – from the first cathode plant in the Americas pic.twitter.com/X95aVXsT9H
— Robotaxi (@robotaxi) September 23, 2026
Active cathode material is the most expensive piece of a lithium-ion battery cell, and it often accounts for more than a third of cell cost. For years, the industry sourced a majority of it from Asia, but Tesla’s decision to make it in the United States bodes well for the Cybercab project. This is the latest chapter in Tesla’s vertical integration strategy, which began in public at Battery Day in 2020.
At the Battery Day Event, Elon Musk said the company would build a North American cathode plant and overhaul the process to cut costs and waste, while also making some of the most powerful and long-lasting cells in the industry.
The Austin facility took years to appear. Tesla filed permits for “Project Cathode” in 2022 on land near Giga Texas. By mid-2022, the building frame was up and Tesla later invested hundreds of millions of dollars as part of a larger expansion of the Giga Texas plant. The company stated it was operating the first large-scale cathode production facility in North America to supplement 4680 cell production.
One month later, that material reached a finished Cybercab.
Made with nickel cathode manufactured locally at Gigafactory Texas! https://t.co/DqMm5fZV3n
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 24, 2026
The timing of this breakthrough is monumental for the Cybercab program. As Tesla officially launched the first Cybercab rides to the public earlier this month, production of the ride-hailing-geared vehicle is moving forward on the planned S-curve that CEO Elon Musk told everyone to expect.
Nevertheless, packs of Cybercab units have been spotted throughout the United States, in an effort to potentially activate the fleet as soon as the company gains regulatory approval in various geographic areas.
On top of that, Tesla owning the cathode step and pairing it with its own in-house lithium from the Gulf Coast refinery shortens the supply chain that once stretched thousands of miles and subjects every pack to fewer external price shocks and geopolitical risks.
Tesla is not yet independent of all of its foreign suppliers, as some precursor metals come from mines and chemical plants. But the first in-house cathode Cybercab shows the company is closing the most expensive and most concentrated gap in its battery production efforts. For a vehicle like Cybercab to operate at a high utilization within the Robotaxi network, that control over cost is so crucial.
It is arguably as important as the software that drives it.
SpaceX readies Starship Flight 14 for a historic journey into uncharted territory
Google just picked SpaceX for its first step into orbital AI
