Investor's Corner
Manufacturing Expansion Provides 2015 Narrative for Tesla
Tesla’s supercharging buildout receives its share of publicity these days as the company builds out an electric highway for multiple countries. However, Tesla’s massive manufacturing expansion resonates as the underlying narrative for Tesla in 2015 for investors, along with a very important Model X release.
Part of investors’ fascination with Tesla is the lack of legacy costs and perceived future advantage in electric car production over traditional automakers at scale. Another big advantage for Tesla over traditional automakers is the evolution of manufacturing technology and software, and the lack of legacy control or operation architectures as an obstacle. Sophisticated industrial networking at the factory floor can communicate with SAP level enterprise business layers and drive efficiencies now. Things have changed.
Over the last ten years, factory manufacturing has integrated higher processing speeds for machinery equipment and added a lot of sensors. Everybody has read or heard about the the Internet of Things, but in the factory space it’s known as the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT). This sensor explosion has been evolving quickly for manufacturers since the 2008 downturn.
However, it’s been a struggle for legacy manufacturers and automakers. That’s why the Fremont plant expansion for the Model X and Model 3 is really advantageous for Tesla. They have a clean manufacturing slate.
So what’s happening in Fremont? Just four months ago, German-based Durr AG announced that it had shipped its 9,000 robot to the Fremont plant. In the release, Durr said that as many as 100 paint, 48 handling and 26 sealing robots went to Tesla’s recently finished paint center, as Musk refers to it.
The paint center has two sealing, primer and top coat lines, which can paint as much as 500,000 bodies per year. That’s the key number.
“This is quite a huge capital cost for us and the new paint center is actually set up to be able to do 10,000 cars a week,” says Musk at a recent shareholder meeting. “So, this paint center is intended to be able to match the 2020 production level (500,000/annually) that includes the Model 3.”
Musk also mentioned that the new Lathrop, Calif. castings and machining center for the Model S will allow Tesla “to expand our vehicle capacity and allocate more space for vehicle final assembly.”
Tesla recently carved out more room at its Fremont plant for its SX body production line. The SX line will be able to switch to the either the Model X or S vehicle, depending on demand. “The new line will have more automation and greater flexibility and we should be able to do three times more than we’re able to do in the current body line,” says Musk.
Of course, this is just the car side. The Tesla Gigafactory is another component to meet future demand for its car and energy side of the business. Just last week around 8 pm eastern time on Friday, Tesla quietly announced that it took out a credit line of “$500M, five-year, credit facility via five banks and it has the option to increase the credit facility’s size to $750M.”
Most investors would admit there’s a good deal of risk in this strategy. However, Elon Musk and his talented team know this is the only strategy to enable high-volume manufacturing for a mass-market electric car. So the rest now comes down to execution.
*Below is an interesting car assembly application via ABB robotics, see video below. Love to see a Tesla video like this, enjoy!
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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