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Morgan Stanley posts optimistic Tesla FSD expectations after V12.3.6 experience

Credit: Tesla Tutorials/YouTube

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1 year ago

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Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently shared some thoughts after personally experiencing FSD (Supervised) V12.3.6. Jonas seemed quite impressed with the advanced driver-assist system, noting that it becomes cautious or assertive when it should be. He also noted that the improvements from FSD (Supervised) V12.3.4 to V12.3.6 are quite evident.

Jonas noted that the version of FSD that he recently experienced included minor tweaks, though a more substantial improvement to the system is expected with the FSD (Supervised) V12.4 release. With version V12.4, most training compute limitations have been eliminated, the analyst noted. 

The Morgan Stanley analyst described a situation where cars could learn by learning instead of labeling. 

“Imagine you tell your robot to: ‘Pick up the red pen on the floor and balance it on one end on the table.’ And the robot picks up the pen and balances it on the table. The command and resulting action is possible due to the robot understanding natural language, knowing what a red pen is, what a table is and what it was asked to do with it. 

“Even if it never did this precise combination of movements before, it understood what was asked of it by observing and imitating permutations of such behaviors many, many times before – perhaps millions of times in reality and trillions of times in simulation. Even if it was never explicitly ‘told’ what a red pen was. It just figured it out,” Jonas wrote. 

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Interestingly enough, the Morgan Stanley analyst provided a notable estimate of the data that Tesla is currently collecting from its fleet. As per the analyst, Tesla has about 5.5 million cars on the road today, and this number may grow to 25 million units by FY2030 and over 50 million units by 2035. 

Jonas also noted that Tesla’s vehicle fleet should be driving a collective 100 billion miles per year run rate by late 2025. Such a number translates to 11.6 million miles an hour or 3,200 miles per second, or almost 2 billion collective miles per week. Provided that FSD’s take rate does increase, a significant number of these miles could be driven without human input.

For context, Tesla noted during its Q1 2024 Update Letter that its FSD fleet has traveled a cumulative distance of 1.3 billion miles. Musk also noted in his Master Plan Part Deux in July 2016 that worldwide regulatory approval for autonomous cars may be possible with 6 billion cumulative miles. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion wasn’t a joke, it was a warning to competitors

Tesla might have made a joke with its first Robotaxi service area expansion, but it was truly a serious warning to its competitors.

Published

9 hours ago

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July 14, 2025

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Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion occurred for the first time on Monday, and while the shape of its new service area might be “cocky,” it surely is not a joke. It’s a warning to competitors.

Robotaxi skeptics and Tesla opponents are sitting around throwing hate toward the company’s expansion appearance. Some called it “unserious,” and others say it’s “immature.” The reality is that it has a real meaning that goes much further than the company’s lighthearted and comical attitude toward things.

For context, Tesla has routinely used the number 69 as a way to price things it sells. 420 is another, an ode to cannabis culture. A few years back, it actually priced its Model S flagship sedan at $69,420. The first rides of the Robotaxi fleet were priced at $4.20. They are now being increased to $6.90.

Some call it childish. Others call it fun. The truth is, nobody is doing it this way.

Tesla updates Robotaxi app with several big changes, including wider service area

But today’s expansion of the Robotaxi service area in Austin is different. Tesla did not expand its shape to different neighborhoods or areas of the City of Austin. It did not expand it by broadening the rectangle that was initially available. Instead, it chose a different strategy, simply because it could:

Tesla could have done anything. It could have expanded in any direction, in any way, but it chose this simply because it has gotten Robotaxi to the point that it can broaden its service area in any direction. It chose this shape because it could.

Other companies might not have the same ability. Of course, many companies probably would not do this even if it could, simply because of the optics. Tesla doesn’t have those concerns; it has been open about its ability to be funny, and yes, immature, at times.

But in reality, it was a stark warning to competitors. “We can go anywhere in Austin, at any time, and we’re confident enough to make a joke about it.”

Tesla’s Robotaxi geofence in Austin grows, and its shape is hard to ignore

As Tesla is already aiming to expand to new states and high-population areas, and with applications filed in Arizona and California, Robotaxi will be in new regions in the coming weeks or months.

For now, it remains in Austin, and Tesla is sending a message to other companies that it is ready to go in any direction. The driverless Robotaxi fleet, bolstered by billions of miles of data, is ready to roam without anyone at the wheel.

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Tesla Robotaxi has already surpassed Waymo in this key metric

Tesla Robotaxi has already overtaken Waymo in Austin in one key metric, but there’s still more work to do.

Published

14 hours ago

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July 14, 2025

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Credit: @HanChulYong/X

Tesla Robotaxi has already surpassed Waymo in one extremely important key metric: size of service area.

Tesla just expanded its service area in Austin on Monday morning, pushing the boundaries of its Robotaxi fleet in an interesting fashion with new capabilities to the north. Yes, we know what it looks like:

The expansion doubled Tesla Robotaxi’s potential travel locations, which now include the University of Texas at Austin, a school with over 53,000 students.

The doubling of the service area by Tesla has already made its travel area larger than Waymo’s, which launched driverless rides in October 2024. It became available to the public in March 2025.

According to Grok, the AI agent on X, Tesla Robotaxi’s current service area spans 42 square miles, which is five square miles larger than Waymo’s service area of 37 square miles.

The service area is one of the most important metrics in determining how much progress a self-driving ride-hailing service is making. Safety is the priority of any company operating a ride-hailing network, especially ones that are making it a point to use autonomy to deploy it.

However, these companies are essentially racing for a larger piece of the city or cities they are in. Waymo has expanded to several different regions around the United States, including Arizona and Los Angeles.

Tesla is attempting to do the same in the coming months as it has already filed paperwork in both California and Arizona to deploy its Robotaxi fleet in states across the U.S.

As the platform continues to show more prowess and accuracy in its operation, Tesla will begin to expand to new areas, eventually aiming for a global rollout of its self-driving service.

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Tesla Megapacks arrive for massive battery replacing coal plant

Tesla Megapacks have started arriving on-site to the Stanwell Battery Project, just as Queensland prepares to wind down the Stanwell coal plant.

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15 hours ago

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July 14, 2025

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Credit: Tesla

The first of over 300 Tesla Megapacks have arrived to the site of a massive battery energy storage system (BESS) being built in Australia, dubbed the Stanwell Battery Project after a coal plant it’s set to replace.

In a press release last week, the Stanwell Battery Project announced that the first Tesla Megapack 2XL units had arrived to the site, which is located outside of Rockhampton in Queensland, Australia. The project will eventually feature 324 Megapack units, set to arrive in the coming months, in order to support the 300MW/1,200MWh battery project.

“The Stanwell Battery is part of the diversification of our portfolio, to include cleaner and more flexible energy solutions,” said Angie Zahra, Stanwell Central Generation General Manager. “It is just one part of the 800 MW of battery energy storage capacity we have in our pipeline.

“Capable of discharging 300 MW of energy for up to four hours (1,200 MWh), our mega battery will be one of the largest in Queensland.”

Credit: Stanwell

READ MORE ON TESLA MEGAPACKS: Tesla Lathrop Megafactory celebrates massive Megapack battery milestone

The state is working with government-owned company Yurika to facilitate construction, and the process is expected to create roughly 80 jobs. The project is expected to come fully online in May 2027, with initial commissioning of the Megapacks aiming for November 2025.

The Stanwell Battery is set to replace the nearby Stanwell coal generation plant, which the government is planning to wind down starting in 2026 as part of efforts to reach an 80 percent renewable energy generation ratio by 2035. Meanwhile, the government is also set to begin winding down the Tarong and Callide coal plants, while several other Megapack projects are being built or coming online. o ya

Tesla currently has two Megapack production facilities, located in Lathrop, California, in the U.S. and another that came online earlier this year in Shanghai, China. The Shanghai Megafactory shipped its first units to Australia in March, while both factories are expected to be capable of producing 10,000 Megapack units per year upon reaching volume production.

xAI receives more Tesla Megapacks for Colossus 2

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