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Musk defends SolarCity merger: $500M cash to Tesla, strength of $1B raised
Tesla presented more financial information related to its pending acquisition of SolarCity to investors late Tuesday after the closing bell. Details were revealed through a comprehensive blog post published on the company’s site. Here are some of the the important points covered.
- SolarCity is expected to add more than a $500 million in cash to Tesla’s balance sheet over the next 3 years.
- SolarCity has transitioned to a cash or purchase finance model instead of a leasing model. This allows the company to bring more money in the door upfront rather than waiting for lease payments to come in over 20 years.
- SolarCity has arranged for nearly $1 billion in financing for its business in 2016 alone.
- Solar City currently does business in less than half of all states. Tesla is a global company with a much greater marketing territory.
- Combining the companies will create efficiencies that create cost savings of nearly $150 million a year.
During the question and answer session with analysts Tuesday afternoon, Elon has several interesting things to say. He prodded the doubters by saying that those who have been predicting a bad outcome for Tesla Motors have been wrong 100% of the time so far. He said their “batting average is zero” and asked why anyone would pay attention to people with such a dismal track record.
Referring to the fact that SolarCity already has a customer base of 300,000 installed solar systems, Musk asked people to consider the significant upsell opportunities that base represents. He joked that what people often see as counterintuitive turns out to be perfectly logical once they fully understand the concept. How is it possible that the same people can be against something one moment and then claim it to be the obvious solution the next, he mused?
For instance, he pointed out that there are more than 150 million roofs in the North American market alone. That means there is an enormous business opportunity for the solar roof products unveiled last week. Musk seemed baffled that more people don’t grasp the size of the market and the profit potential it offers.
Talking further about the solar roof, Elon downplayed its cost, saying the glass for the solar tiles cost next to nothing to manufacture. “Glass is basically sand,” he said. Even the micro-louvers that give the tiles their distinctive appearance when viewed from below are made of plastic. Very tough plastic, to be sure, but only slightly more expensive than glass.
To him, it seems obvious that people will clamor for the solar roof product. Others have tried to make a solar roof before, but Elon asked coyly if anyone had ever seen one that was attractive. He said none of them were appealing enough to go on his own house and wondered aloud why no one had come with a solar roof product before that is as attractive as the Tesla offering.
Finally, Musk was asked, if the SolarCity merger was not approved, would Tesla offer solar products from other companies in its stores? He scoffed at the idea. Would Apple offer cell phones from Samsung and other manufacturers in its stores? He seemed to think the idea was preposterous.
Elon is clearly committed to the merger with SolarCity. He even considers it pretty much a no brainer. Despite that, Tesla stock has dropped considerably this week after a temporary pop in the stock following the solar roof reveal. The company stock is trading -1.31% after hours following today’s announcement.
If you’re considering solar for your home or business, we encourage you to get a solar cost estimate first, based on your monthly utility bill and location. The service is being provided by an affiliate partner and fan to Teslarati.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
