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NASA’s SLS Moon rocket almost aces vital prelaunch test on 7th try
Following several incomplete attempts in April, June, August, and September, NASA’s first Space Launch System (SLS) Moon rocket has almost aced a vital prelaunch test on the seventh try.
NASA says that “all objectives were met” during the ten-hour test, which wrapped up around 4:30 pm EDT (20:30 UTC) on Wednesday, September 21st. Despite the rocket running into multiple additional issues, some old and others new, the agency was confident enough in the preliminary results of the wet dress rehearsal (WDR) – deemed a “cryogenic demonstration test” – to reaffirm that it’s still working towards a third launch attempt as early as September 27th.
That launch date is not set in stone, but NASA also hasn’t ruled out the window after the latest round of SLS testing. The agency will host a press conference on Friday, September 23rd, to provide its final decision and offer more details about the seventh wet dress rehearsal.
Despite NASA’s apparent confidence after the test, which was admittedly smoother than most previous SLS tests at the launch pad, it was far from smooth. The immediate story of the “cryogenic demonstration test” dates back to the SLS Artemis I rocket’s second so-called “launch attempt” on September 3rd. During that attempt, the launch was aborted well before SLS was ready when NASA detected a major hydrogen fuel leak around one of the quick-disconnect umbilical panels that fuels and drains the rocket. Remote troubleshooting was unable to solve the problem, forcing NASA to stand down.
Over the last few weeks, teams inspected, tested, and repaired the faulty Tail Service Mast Umbilical (TSMU), preparing for a cryogenic proof test meant to verify that the issue was fixed. During that September 21st test, the TSMU still leaked significantly for the whole duration, but it did so more predictably and – unlike prior leaks – never violated the limits that would trigger a launch abort.
But near the end, a different umbilical panel developed a significant hydrogen leak that did violate those launch constraints, meaning that NASA would have likely had to stand down yet again if it had attempted to launch before completing additional testing. The test was completed successfully, but its goals and constraints were not the same as those facing a launch.
A NASA-developed rocket leaking hydrogen is unfortunately a tale as old as time. That the agency that struggled with hydrogen leaks throughout the 30-year career of the Space Shuttle appears to be just as flabbergasted by nearly identical problems on a new rocket – SLS – that has Shuttle ‘heritage’ on almost every square inch is not surprising, even if it is somewhat embarassing.
Liquid hydrogen fuel always has been and likely always will be a massive pain to manage in any rocket, but especially in a large rocket. As the smallest element in the universe, it is fundamentally leak-prone. Combined with the fact that it only remains liquid below the extraordinarily low temperature of -253°C (-423°F), generates ultra-flammable hydrogen gas as it continually attempts to warm to a more stable temperature, and naturally embrittles most metals, it’s an engineering nightmare by almost every measure.
For all that pain, hydrogen does provide rocket engineers exceptional efficiency when properly exploited, but even that positive aspect is often diminished by hydrogen’s ultra-low density. For rocket stages that have already reached orbit, hydrogen-oxygen propellant offers unbeatable efficiency. But for a rocket stage that will never be used in orbit, like the SLS core stage, hydrogen fuel is rarely worth the tradeoffs – a reality that SLS is unfortunately providing a strong reminder of.
Demonstrating the Groundhog Day-esque nature of NASA rockets and hydrogen leaks, the same leaky TSMU panel that aborted SLS’ September 3rd launch attempt (sixth WDR) and had to be fixed and retested on September 21st also caused a hydrogen leak that partially aborted the rocket’s third wet dress rehearsal attempt in April 2022. NASA then rolled the rocket back to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB), where workers spent almost two months inspecting and reworking the fuel TSMU and fixing other issues. During its first test (WDR #4) after rolling back to the pad in June, the same fuel TSMU leaked and NASA had to return the rocket to the VAB again to fix the problem.
The fuel TSMU then leaked on the SLS rocket’s first launch attempt (really WDR #5), but the problem was resolved and was not what caused NASA to stand down. It was, however, a primary reason behind NASA’s second aborted launch attempt (WDR #6). With any luck, the eighth time will be the charm.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
