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NASA’s SLS Moon rocket almost aces vital prelaunch test on 7th try

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Following several incomplete attempts in April, June, August, and September, NASA’s first Space Launch System (SLS) Moon rocket has almost aced a vital prelaunch test on the seventh try.

NASA says that “all objectives were met” during the ten-hour test, which wrapped up around 4:30 pm EDT (20:30 UTC) on Wednesday, September 21st. Despite the rocket running into multiple additional issues, some old and others new, the agency was confident enough in the preliminary results of the wet dress rehearsal (WDR) – deemed a “cryogenic demonstration test” – to reaffirm that it’s still working towards a third launch attempt as early as September 27th.

That launch date is not set in stone, but NASA also hasn’t ruled out the window after the latest round of SLS testing. The agency will host a press conference on Friday, September 23rd, to provide its final decision and offer more details about the seventh wet dress rehearsal.

Despite NASA’s apparent confidence after the test, which was admittedly smoother than most previous SLS tests at the launch pad, it was far from smooth. The immediate story of the “cryogenic demonstration test” dates back to the SLS Artemis I rocket’s second so-called “launch attempt” on September 3rd. During that attempt, the launch was aborted well before SLS was ready when NASA detected a major hydrogen fuel leak around one of the quick-disconnect umbilical panels that fuels and drains the rocket. Remote troubleshooting was unable to solve the problem, forcing NASA to stand down.

Over the last few weeks, teams inspected, tested, and repaired the faulty Tail Service Mast Umbilical (TSMU), preparing for a cryogenic proof test meant to verify that the issue was fixed. During that September 21st test, the TSMU still leaked significantly for the whole duration, but it did so more predictably and – unlike prior leaks – never violated the limits that would trigger a launch abort.

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But near the end, a different umbilical panel developed a significant hydrogen leak that did violate those launch constraints, meaning that NASA would have likely had to stand down yet again if it had attempted to launch before completing additional testing. The test was completed successfully, but its goals and constraints were not the same as those facing a launch.

A NASA-developed rocket leaking hydrogen is unfortunately a tale as old as time. That the agency that struggled with hydrogen leaks throughout the 30-year career of the Space Shuttle appears to be just as flabbergasted by nearly identical problems on a new rocket – SLS – that has Shuttle ‘heritage’ on almost every square inch is not surprising, even if it is somewhat embarassing.

Liquid hydrogen fuel always has been and likely always will be a massive pain to manage in any rocket, but especially in a large rocket. As the smallest element in the universe, it is fundamentally leak-prone. Combined with the fact that it only remains liquid below the extraordinarily low temperature of -253°C (-423°F), generates ultra-flammable hydrogen gas as it continually attempts to warm to a more stable temperature, and naturally embrittles most metals, it’s an engineering nightmare by almost every measure.

For all that pain, hydrogen does provide rocket engineers exceptional efficiency when properly exploited, but even that positive aspect is often diminished by hydrogen’s ultra-low density. For rocket stages that have already reached orbit, hydrogen-oxygen propellant offers unbeatable efficiency. But for a rocket stage that will never be used in orbit, like the SLS core stage, hydrogen fuel is rarely worth the tradeoffs – a reality that SLS is unfortunately providing a strong reminder of.

Demonstrating the Groundhog Day-esque nature of NASA rockets and hydrogen leaks, the same leaky TSMU panel that aborted SLS’ September 3rd launch attempt (sixth WDR) and had to be fixed and retested on September 21st also caused a hydrogen leak that partially aborted the rocket’s third wet dress rehearsal attempt in April 2022. NASA then rolled the rocket back to the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB), where workers spent almost two months inspecting and reworking the fuel TSMU and fixing other issues. During its first test (WDR #4) after rolling back to the pad in June, the same fuel TSMU leaked and NASA had to return the rocket to the VAB again to fix the problem.

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The fuel TSMU then leaked on the SLS rocket’s first launch attempt (really WDR #5), but the problem was resolved and was not what caused NASA to stand down. It was, however, a primary reason behind NASA’s second aborted launch attempt (WDR #6). With any luck, the eighth time will be the charm.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Cybercab spotted testing on public roads for the first time

The car was spotted just minutes from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California. There are a few interesting tidbits we can gather from the photo and the information shared with it.

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Credit: Teslarati

The Tesla Cybercab has been spotted testing on public roads for the first time, marking a substantial step forward in the vehicle’s development.

The car was spotted just minutes from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California. There are a few interesting tidbits we can gather from the photo and the information shared with it:

The vehicle had a driver and side view mirrors equipped on it, which seems to be pretty expected, especially at this stage.

Tesla might have been using its Full Self-Driving software with the vehicle as it enters this new stage of testing on public roads. This seems most likely, especially as the car, which has long been developed to be void of a steering wheel and pedals, will totally rely on autonomous tech to transport one or two passengers to their destination.

Additionally, side view mirrors are required by law at delivery, and Tesla was likely looking to keep things as safe and elementary as possible, especially with this early stage of testing.

As this is the first time the vehicle has been spotted on public roads and the first time it was likely testing on them, Tesla was being cautious.

There have been a lot of developments with Cybercab over the past few weeks, as the car has been spotted testing on the Fremont Factory’s test track, units have been seen outside of Gigafactory Texas’s crash testing facility, and there has been some additional speculation about what the vehicle’s standard equipment will be.

There have also been quite a few job postings by Tesla for manufacturing and production roles related to Cybercab over the past few weeks.

Yesterday, Tesla’s Board Chair, Robyn Denholm, revealed that the company could end up building Cybercab with a steering wheel and pedals, contrary to what Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have wanted to do.

Tesla Cybercab might be getting a huge change

The vehicle has yet to reach that stage of regulatory testing, but Tesla wants to start volume production in Q2. If it wants to release the vehicle without any manual controls, that means that Full Self-Driving will need to be completed within the next eight months.

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Tesla hints it could see ‘a few more vehicles’ released soon

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

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Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm hinted the company could see “a few more vehicles” coming out and being released soon, although there is no indication of what could be on the way based on her comments.

However, Tesla has hinted toward several potential releases in the coming years, as other executives, including Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, have talked briefly about what could be on the way.

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

It was a vague and almost cryptic sentence, as, in all honesty, it was not completely clear whether she was talking about recent releases that are just making their way to market, like the Model 3 and Model Y “Standard,” or new vehicles altogether.

Nevertheless, it’s worth dissecting.

Tesla “Standard” Models

On October 7, Tesla launched the Standard Model 3 and Model Y, stripped-down versions of their now “Premium” siblings. The Standard trims lack premium features like leather seats, a rear touchscreen, and a glass roof, among other features.

Tesla begins deliveries of its affordable Model Y Standard

These cars are just starting to be delivered for the first time, so it is possible that Denholm was referring to these cars.

Potential Model 2 Hint?

There has always been a looming vehicle model that many Tesla fans and owners have been intrigued by: the Model 2.

This car was hinted at being the $25,000 model that Tesla was rumored to be developing, and many thought that was the vehicle that would be released earlier this month, not the Standard Model 3 and Model Y.

Instead, the Model 2 could be something that would enable Tesla to reach an entirely new consumer base, including those who are not able to swing the payment for the company’s more premium offerings.

It seems Tesla will have to launch some sort of extremely affordable model in the future, and with the Cybercab being slotted at that rough price point, it would not be out of the question for it to be in the realm of possibility for future releases.

It’s worth noting, however, that it is probably unlikely this will happen. Tesla is so deadset focused on autonomy, it seems Cybercab would take extreme precedence over the unconfirmed “Model 2.”

Cybertruck-inspired SUV

Tesla fans have been begging the company to develop a full-size SUV that would compete with the Ford Expedition or Chevrolet Tahoe, but the company has not given any indication that this would be something it would build.

Nevertheless, there was a very subtle hint in a recent promotional clip that showed a Cyber SUV mock-up placed strategically next to a clay model of a Model 3:

Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design

The Model X is simply not what people want when it comes to an SUV, as it does not have the seating capacity and cargo space that many need with a full-sized SUV.

This issue, in particular, has been one that has been extremely relevant to the company’s future lineup as consumers have shown they would be interested in a Tesla vehicle that fit this description.

Additionally, von Holzhausen said in September that a Cyber SUV or a smaller electric pickup with a more traditional design is “definitely things we’ve considered…We’re working on so many innovative and fun things.”

Tesla gives big hint that it will build Cyber SUV, smaller Cybertruck

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Investor's Corner

Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.

The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.

They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.

Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.

Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.

Ives said in a note on October 2:

“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”

Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.

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