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NASA says SpaceX astronaut launch debut is still on track despite pandemic, engine failure
Despite a global pandemic and Falcon 9’s first in-flight engine failure in almost eight years, NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine remains confident that SpaceX and the space agency are still on track for Crew Dragon’s astronaut launch debut.
For the third time in about a month, NASA has officially confirmed that SpaceX’s Crew Dragon ‘Demo-2’ mission – the company’s first astronaut launch ever – is still tracking towards a liftoff in May 2020. While there are several good reasons to expect further delays, Bridenstine acknowledged and discounted those pressing risks in an April 9th interview with Spaceflight Now, explicitly stating that “if [Demo-2 does] slip, it’ll probably be into June. It won’t be much.”
Excluding several minor to moderate technical risks that have popped up in recent weeks, this suggests that the NASA administrator is also confident that one of the biggest sources of imminent schedule uncertainty – closed-door paperwork completion and joint reviews – will actually be smooth sailing.
On March 2nd, 2019, Falcon 9 lifted off for the first time with SpaceX’s upgraded Crew Dragon spacecraft on its inaugural orbital launch. Known as Demo-1, the mission was ultimately a flawless success, with Dragon performing exactly as expected throughout launch, orbit-raising, space station rendezvous, docking, departure, deorbit, reentry, and splashdown operations.
As Crew Dragon’s only orbital launch and space station docking, it also serves as the best and only glimpse into how long the more nebulous review and paperwork aspects of launch preparation can take. For Demo-1, Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon rolled out to Launch Pad 39A and completed a successful static fire on January 24th, 2019. The mission was then scheduled for launch no earlier than (NET) February 23rd and wound up being pushed back another week to March 2nd. In almost every case, Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch less than a week after a successful preflight static fire and do not attempt a static fire until a given rocket and payload are both ready to go.
If there were technical challenges that lead to that six-week delay between Crew Dragon’s Demo-1 static fire and launch, they have never been broached publicly, making it more likely that NASA spent at least a month simply finishing up final paperwork and reviews. Hopefully, that substantial gap was mainly due to the fact that it was the first time NASA and SpaceX had to work together to launch Crew Dragon.
For Crew Dragon’s second Falcon 9 launch, successfully completed on January 19th, 2020, the rocket wrapped up its static fire test on January 11th — a major improvement compared to Demo-1. That suborbital In-Flight Abort (IFA) test isn’t directly comparable to Crew Dragon’s orbital launch debut, but it does encourage at least a little confidence that Demo-1’s six-week review period was an outlier.
Thankfully, Bridenstine says that all major Crew Dragon issues have been effectively closed out or are very close to closure as of April 2020. A SpaceX contractor was recently forced to prematurely drop a Crew Dragon parachute test vehicle on March 25th, destroying the mockup capsule before it could complete two final tests. The NASA administrator now says that all parties have agreed to complete those tests with a different mockup and will use a C-130 cargo plane instead of a helicopter.
Bridenstine is also confident that the coronavirus pandemic – hampering almost all forms of industry in every afflicted country – will also have little to no impact on Crew Dragon’s astronaut launch debut schedule. NASA and SpaceX have put in place strict new rules and changed a number of procedures to further mitigate risk, helped by the fact that astronaut launches to the International Space Station (ISS) already operate with cleanliness and disease prevention as a major priority.
Finally, the NASA administrator also stated that SpaceX’s March 18th in-flight engine failure was “not going to impact our commercial crew launch,” confirming that SpaceX already has “a really good understanding of” what went wrong. Most likely, this means that Falcon 9 B1048’s stumble was directly related to the fact that the booster was flying for the fifth time – a first for a SpaceX rocket and orbital-class rocket boosters in general. Crew Dragon Demo-2 will be Falcon 9 booster B1058’s first launch.
Ultimately, while there are certainly good reasons to remain skeptical of NASA’s increasingly frequent assurances that Crew Dragon’s astronaut launch debut remains on track for late-May or June 2020, there are at least as many good reasons to stay confident.
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Tesla Cybercab undergoes winter testing as Elon Musk reiterates production start date
CEO Elon Musk confirmed the timeline in a recent post on X, while Tesla’s official social media accounts separately revealed that Cybercab prototypes are now undergoing winter testing in Alaska.
Tesla has reiterated that production of its fully autonomous Cybercab is set to begin in April, even as the company continues expanding real-world testing of the vehicle.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed the timeline in a recent post on X, while Tesla’s official social media accounts separately revealed that Cybercab prototypes are now undergoing winter testing in Alaska.
Musk confirms April Cybercab initial production
In a post on X, Musk reiterated that Cybercab production is scheduled to begin in April, reiterating his guidance about the vehicle’s manufacturing timeline. Around the same time, Tesla shared images showing the Cybercab undergoing cold-weather testing in Alaska. Interestingly enough, the Cybercab prototypes being tested in Alaska seemed to be equipped with snow tires.
Winter testing in Alaska suggests Tesla is preparing the Cybercab for deployment across a wide range of climates in the United States. Cold temperatures, snow, ice, and reduced traction present some of the most demanding scenarios for autonomous systems, making Alaska a logical proving ground for a vehicle designed to operate without a human driver.
Taken together, Musk’s production update and Tesla’s testing post indicate that while the Cybercab is nearing the start of manufacturing, validation efforts are still actively ramping to ensure reliability in real-world environments.
What early Cybercab production might look like
Musk has previously cautioned that the start of Cybercab manufacturing will be slow, reflecting the challenges of launching an all-new vehicle platform. In a recent comment, Musk said initial production typically follows an S-curve, with early output constrained by how many new parts and processes are involved.
According to Musk, both Cybercab and Optimus fall into this category, as “almost everything is new.” As a result, early production rates are expected to be very deliberate before eventually accelerating rapidly as manufacturing processes mature.
“Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Tesla will increase its Full Self-Driving subscription price, meaning it will eventually be more than the current $99 per month price tag it has right now.
Already stating that the ability to purchase the suite outright will be removed, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said earlier this week that the Full Self-Driving subscription price would increase when its capabilities improve:
“I should also mention that the $99/month for supervised FSD will rise as FSD’s capabilities improve. The massive value jump is when you can be on your phone or sleeping for the entire ride (unsupervised FSD).”
This was an expected change, especially as Tesla has been hinting for some time that it is approaching a feature-complete version of Full Self-Driving that will no longer require driver supervision. However, with the increase, some are concerned that they may be priced out.
$99 per month is already a tough ask for some. While Full Self-Driving is definitely worth it just due to the capabilities, not every driver is ready to add potentially 50 percent to their car payment each month to have it.
While Tesla has not revealed any target price for FSD, it does seem that it will go up to at least $150.
I should also mention that the $99/month for supervised FSD will rise as FSD’s capabilities improve.
The massive value jump is when you can be on your phone or sleeping for the entire ride (unsupervised FSD). https://t.co/YDKhXN3aaG
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 23, 2026
Additionally, the ability to purchase the suite outright is also being eliminated on February 14, which gives owners another reason to be slightly concerned about whether they will be able to afford to continue paying for Full Self-Driving in any capacity.
Some owners have requested a tiered program, which would allow people to pay for the capabilities they want at a discounted price.
Unsupervised FSD would be the most expensive, and although the company started removing Autopilot from some vehicles, it seems a Supervised FSD suite would still attract people to pay between $49 and $99 per month, as it is very useful.
Tesla will likely release pricing for the Unsupervised suite when it is available, but price increases could still come to the Supervised version as things improve.
This is not the first time Musk has hinted that the price would change with capability improvements, either. He’s been saying it for some time. In 2020, he even said the value of FSD would “probably be somewhere in excess of $100,000.”
The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. It that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 18, 2020
Tesla has chosen to axe the ability to purchase Full Self-Driving outright from a select group of cars just days after CEO Elon Musk announced the company had plans to eliminate that option in February.
The company is making a clear-cut stand that it will fully transition away from the ability to purchase the Full Self-Driving suite outright, a move that has brought differing opinions throughout the Tesla community.
Earlier this week, the company also announced that it will no longer allow buyers to purchase Full Self-Driving outright when ordering a pre-owned vehicle from inventory. Instead, that will be available for $99 per month, the same price that it costs for everyone else.
The ability to buy the suite for $8,000 for a one-time fee at the time of order has been removed:
NEWS: Tesla no longer allows buyers to purchase FSD outright in the U.S. when ordering a pre-owned vehicle directly from inventory. Tesla now gives you the option to either subscribe for $99/month, or purchase FSD outright after taking delivery (available until February 14th). pic.twitter.com/1xZ0BVG4JB
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) January 23, 2026
This is a major move because it is the first time Tesla is eliminating the ability to purchase FSD outright for one flat fee to any of its vehicles, at least at the time of purchase.
It is trying to phase out the outright purchase option as much as it can, preparing people for the subscription-based service it will exclusively offer starting on February 14.
In less than a month, it won’t be available on any vehicle, which has truly driven some serious conversation from Tesla owners throughout the community.
There’s a conflict, because many believe that they will now lose the ability to buy FSD and not pay for it monthly, which is an attractive offer. However, others believe, despite paying $8,000 for FSD, that they will have to pay more money on top of that cost to get the unsupervised suite.
Additionally, CEO Elon Musk said that the FSD suite’s subscription price would increase over time as capabilities increase, which is understandable, but is also quite a conflict for those who spent thousands to have what was once promised to them, and now they may have to pay even more money.
Tesla Cybercab undergoes winter testing as Elon Musk reiterates production start date
Tesla to increase Full Self-Driving subscription price: here’s when
