Investor's Corner
What You Need to Know about Tesla’s Battery Storage Solution
A new tweet from Elon Musk this week promises a new product line debut on April 30 and most, including me, have our guesses that it will be Tesla’s battery storage solution as mentioned in the last quarterly earnings call.
Major new Tesla product line — not a car — will be unveiled at our Hawthorne Design Studio on Thurs 8pm, April 30
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 30, 2015
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From Dana Hull's article last June in the San Jose Mercury, the battery storage product offers:
- A lithium-ion battery storage system, called the home energy Storage system, from Solar City
- Contained in a 4-foot-tall metal box mounted on the wall of a garage
- Made by Tesla but offered by San Mateo-based SolarCity to its California solar customers as part of a small pilot project.
- Goes for $1,500 down and $15 a month over a 10-year lease period.
SolarCity + Tesla battery pack for storing solar energy. Source: Forum member myI55 via CleanTechnica
Hull received feedback from a battery storage user that's undergoing the pilot program. But more recently, Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry via Benzinga pulled in some real-world data from two additional people testing Tesla's battery storage solution.
Here are some of the highlights from this article:
- The Battery has to be installed 1.5 feet above the ground, and should have an open space of 1 ft on all sides
- The battery does not make any noise, does not need any maintenance, has no drippings
- The Battery also has an inverter
- The installer offered a choice between 10KWH and 15KWH;
Chowdry's article reported a similar price as to what was reported in the San Jose Mercury article and mentioned that a "10kWh battery could be priced at $13,000 with a 50 percent rebate from PG&E Corporation." That's a hefty rebate and a big incentive.
The Chowdry article also stated that there are battery storage owners in other states, about 100. So it's not limited to California. However, the April 30 announcement could be limited to just current Solar City sales territories.
The Benzinga article mentioned that one owner "charges the battery at night at $0.11 and then sells it back to the grid at 3PM for $0.43, and makes $10 to 12 month doing this."
This revenue opportunity may not exist in all states. In Illinois, solar customers receive a monthly credit based on the number of solar kWh it pushes back to the grid.
This sell-back opportunity for the resident is a point Jigar Shah, solar financier, has emphasized. Shah argues that utilities need to have real-time analytics and a communication infrastructure to provide energy pricing signals quickly to customers. Shah feels the onus is on utilities to modernize and provide residents these tools or else residential battery solutions could be "dead assets."
From the most recent earnings conference call in February, Musk says that Tesla could be producing these battery packs in six months. JB Straubel, Tesla's point person for its energy storage strategy (& gigafactory), reiterated this point last year at an energy industry conference.
Struaubel said, "We see the California mandate for stationary energy storage by 2020 and we're (Tesla) quite a lot more bullish. We think that mandate will be met and far exceeded before the timeframe expires. We all should be thinking bigger."
So are you considering a battery storage solution?
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
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