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Nio forecasts Q2 delivery slump as pandemic restrictions subdue manufacturing

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China’s Nio said this morning it is forecasting fewer deliveries of its electric vehicles this quarter due to anti-pandemic restrictions, which are weighing on manufacturing and sales.

Nio, a Chinese smart electric vehicle manufacturer, expects deliveries to drop by as much as 11 percent in the second quarter of this year as a result of anti-pandemic restrictions across the mainland.

The company stated on Thursday that deliveries between April and June would be between 23,000 and 25,000 units, which is a considerable drop of 3 to 11 percent from the previous quarter.

Nio is the second big Chinese electric car maker to foresee a drop in quarterly sales, according to the South China Morning Post, which initially reported the story.

Chen Jinzhu, CEO of consultancy Shanghai Mingliang Auto Service, said challenges in the second quarter were driven by lockdowns across China due to another spike in COVID-19 cases. “The second quarter is proving to be a difficult time for Chinese EV companies as both their production and sales are affected by lockdowns in the major vehicle manufacturing base like Shanghai and northwestern Jilin province,” Jinzhu said. “The good news is that their arch-rival Tesla was also severely affected by the virus control and prevention measures.”

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Shanghai and Jilin, a crucial car-making center in China, have been in at least partial lockdown for the last three months in order to limit the spread of a recent wave of COVID-19 cases. The strict regulations put a burden on automotive supply networks and discouraged EV enthusiasts from purchasing vehicles.

During a citywide lockdown that lasted from April 1 to May 31, according to Cui Dongshu, general secretary of the China Passenger Automobile Association (CPCA), more than 20,000 car component makers in Shanghai and neighboring provinces were compelled to either cease production or cut capacity.

The automotive supply chain was jammed by the lockdowns in Shanghai and Jilin provinces in mid-April. Nio briefly halted production at its factory in Hefei, East China’s Anhui province, for five days.

In the mainland Chinese market, Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto are considered Chinese competitors to Tesla, the unquestioned worldwide EV leader.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

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It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

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It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

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We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

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Elon Musk

Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

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tesla showroom
Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

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Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

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“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

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Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

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Tesla Model 3 hits quarter million miles with original battery and motor

The Model 3’s Battery Management System (BMS) shows a State of Health between 88% and 90%.

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(Credit: Tesla Asia/Twitter)

A Western Australian Tesla Model 3 has captured global attention after racking up an impressive 410,000 kilometers (254,000 miles) on its original battery and motor, while still retaining around 90% of its original battery health.

Long-term Model 3

The 2021 Model 3 Standard Plus, equipped with a 60 kWh lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, has been in constant use as an Uber rideshare vehicle. According to Port Kennedy EV specialist EV Workz, the car’s Battery Management System (BMS) shows a State of Health between 88% and 90%.

EV Workz owner Edi Gutmanis shared the findings on Facebook’s Electric Vehicles For Australia page on August 8, and the post quickly went viral. As per Gutmanis, the Model 3’s charging history shows 15,556 kWh delivered via DC fast charging (29% of the total) and 38,012 kWh via AC charging (71% of the total). 

Gutmanis also broke down the fuel savings for the Model 3. A petrol car covering the same 410,000 km at 7L/100km and $1.70 per liter would cost an estimated AU$50,000 in fuel. By comparison, charging the Tesla using average commercial rates would be about AU$20,737 and just AU$13,000 if using Western Australia’s EV tariff. That’s a potential refueling saving of roughly $37,000, not including the avoided maintenance costs of an internal combustion engine.

Simple fix

The car came into EV Workz for a driveline “judder” issue, as per a report form EV Central Australia. Gutmanis found the real cause was simply worn motor mount bushes. After seven hours of labor and $130 in parts, “the car drives just as good as the first day it left the dealership,” Gutmanis said.

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Gutmanis, whose business also performs EV conversions on classics and 4x4s, says the results aren’t surprising. “We expect this sort of longevity with EV batteries,” he explained, though this is the highest-mileage Model 3 he has encountered in Australia.

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