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Investor's Corner

Rivian stock outlook remains bullish despite narrow 2022 production miss

Credit: Jer Granucci

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Despite a near miss on its production goal for 2022, institutional investors are maintaining their buy ratings for Rivian stock.

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) went public only 14 months ago, and since then, it has not exactly had a great time of it. From its IPO peak, Rivian stock has fallen by over 80%, and the poor macroeconomic conditions of the past year have not aided that situation. Nonetheless, large institutional investors see the electric truck maker as an opportunity and have maintained high price targets and “buy” ratings.

Rivian reported its production numbers yesterday, and while the company was kissing its 25,000 vehicle production target for 2022, a goal many worried the company would never come close to, it missed the goal narrowly by just a couple hundred vehicles. Luckily, this near miss has been taken well by investors who have not exactly rushed to sell the stock. Rivian is only down today by less than a percent. This has been reflected by major investors maintaining high price targets and “buy” ratings.


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Morgan Stanley is one such investor who remains bullish on Rivian. The prominent investor only lowered its price target by $5 to $55, still a 220% increase from its current share price.

Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley explains the decision by pointing out Rivian’s relative production strength. “For a year that started tough with a cut to IPO production and delivery estimates, RIVN managed to increase both production and deliveries Q/Q throughout the year, with 4Q deliveries over 550% higher than that of 1Q,” says Mr. Jonas. “We expect to see RIVN continue to scale production next year and maintain our FY23 delivery estimate of 50k vehicles.”

Other large investors have echoed Morgan Stanley’s optimism, and some have even gone further. At the end of last year, Wells Fargo increased its price target from $32 to $35 and maintained its buy rating. As did Deutsche Bank, which increased its price target from $43 to $44 and maintained its buy rating. Overall, one would be hard-pressed to find an institutional investor bearish on the stock.

Perhaps the best synopsis of how investors are feeling regarding the truck maker was stated by an analyst at Motley Fool today. Regarding Rivian’s production report, Beth McKenna says that “investors should be satisfied.”

But that brings us to the question if so many are so optimistic about the Rivian stock, why has it continued to fall, and why has it not recovered to its IPO price? A couple of hurdles come to mind. Foremost, as the Federal Reserve has continued to increase interest rates to battle inflation in the United States, many anticipate some sort of recession in the coming months or year. And if this were to occur, it could easily damage high price products such as automotive sales.

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But more specifically, regarding Rivian, the company still has a steep hill to climb before it can be considered a major player in the automotive market. While it has done wonders to take production from the single digits to the thousands they are producing now, other automakers, especially those in the truck space, produce by the millions annually. Frankly, catching up is still a daunting task.

Rivian has seen amazing growth over the past year, and there is no doubt that it is becoming an ever-more prominent player in the automotive market. And if institutional investors are to be believed, it may be the next major disruptor in an industry that legacy players primarily dominate.

William is not an investor in Rivian.

What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!

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Will is an auto enthusiast, a gear head, and an EV enthusiast above all. From racing, to industry data, to the most advanced EV tech on earth, he now covers it at Teslarati.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed

The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer/X

Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives. 

Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars

Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.

Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.

TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target

TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects. 

Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake

The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker. 

Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.

Institutional investors and TSLA

Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.

The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.

Recent insider sales

Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.

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Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.

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Investor's Corner

Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments

Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

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Credit: @TeslaLarry/X

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

Baron doubles down on Tesla

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.

“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.

A lifelong investment

Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.

“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”

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Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.

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