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Investor's Corner

Rivian stock outlook remains bullish despite narrow 2022 production miss

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Despite a near miss on its production goal for 2022, institutional investors are maintaining their buy ratings for Rivian stock.

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) went public only 14 months ago, and since then, it has not exactly had a great time of it. From its IPO peak, Rivian stock has fallen by over 80%, and the poor macroeconomic conditions of the past year have not aided that situation. Nonetheless, large institutional investors see the electric truck maker as an opportunity and have maintained high price targets and “buy” ratings.

Rivian reported its production numbers yesterday, and while the company was kissing its 25,000 vehicle production target for 2022, a goal many worried the company would never come close to, it missed the goal narrowly by just a couple hundred vehicles. Luckily, this near miss has been taken well by investors who have not exactly rushed to sell the stock. Rivian is only down today by less than a percent. This has been reflected by major investors maintaining high price targets and “buy” ratings.


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Morgan Stanley is one such investor who remains bullish on Rivian. The prominent investor only lowered its price target by $5 to $55, still a 220% increase from its current share price.

Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley explains the decision by pointing out Rivian’s relative production strength. “For a year that started tough with a cut to IPO production and delivery estimates, RIVN managed to increase both production and deliveries Q/Q throughout the year, with 4Q deliveries over 550% higher than that of 1Q,” says Mr. Jonas. “We expect to see RIVN continue to scale production next year and maintain our FY23 delivery estimate of 50k vehicles.”

Other large investors have echoed Morgan Stanley’s optimism, and some have even gone further. At the end of last year, Wells Fargo increased its price target from $32 to $35 and maintained its buy rating. As did Deutsche Bank, which increased its price target from $43 to $44 and maintained its buy rating. Overall, one would be hard-pressed to find an institutional investor bearish on the stock.

Perhaps the best synopsis of how investors are feeling regarding the truck maker was stated by an analyst at Motley Fool today. Regarding Rivian’s production report, Beth McKenna says that “investors should be satisfied.”

But that brings us to the question if so many are so optimistic about the Rivian stock, why has it continued to fall, and why has it not recovered to its IPO price? A couple of hurdles come to mind. Foremost, as the Federal Reserve has continued to increase interest rates to battle inflation in the United States, many anticipate some sort of recession in the coming months or year. And if this were to occur, it could easily damage high price products such as automotive sales.

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But more specifically, regarding Rivian, the company still has a steep hill to climb before it can be considered a major player in the automotive market. While it has done wonders to take production from the single digits to the thousands they are producing now, other automakers, especially those in the truck space, produce by the millions annually. Frankly, catching up is still a daunting task.

Rivian has seen amazing growth over the past year, and there is no doubt that it is becoming an ever-more prominent player in the automotive market. And if institutional investors are to be believed, it may be the next major disruptor in an industry that legacy players primarily dominate.

William is not an investor in Rivian.

What do you think of the article? Do you have any comments, questions, or concerns? Shoot me an email at william@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @WilliamWritin. If you have news tips, email us at tips@teslarati.com!

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Will is an auto enthusiast, a gear head, and an EV enthusiast above all. From racing, to industry data, to the most advanced EV tech on earth, he now covers it at Teslarati.

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Investor's Corner

Goldman Sachs reduces Tesla price target to $285

Despite Goldman Sach’s NASDAQ: TSLA price cut to $285, Tesla boasts $95.7B in revenue & nearly $1T market cap.

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Goldman Sachs analysts cut Tesla’s price target to $285 from $295, maintaining a Neutral rating.

The adjustment reflects weaker sales performance across key markets, with Tesla shares trading at $284.70, down nearly 18% in the past week. The analysts pointed to declining sales data in the United States, Europe, and China as the primary driver for the revised outlook. In the U.S., Tesla’s quarter-to-date deliveries through May fell mid-teens year-over-year, according to Wards and Motor Intelligence.

In Europe, April registrations plummeted 50% year-over-year, with May showing a mid-20% decline, per industry data. Meanwhile, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported a 20% year-over-year drop in May, despite a 5.5% sequential increase from April. Consumer surveys from HundredX and Morning Consult also shaped Goldman Sachs’ lowered delivery and EPS forecasts.

Goldman Sachs now projects Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries to range between 335,000 and 395,000 vehicles, with a base case of 365,000, down from a prior estimate of 410,000 and below the Visible Alpha Consensus of 417,000. Despite these headwinds, Tesla’s financials remain strong, with $95.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a $917 billion market capitalization.

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Regionally, Tesla’s challenges are stark. In Germany, the German road traffic agency KBA reported Tesla’s May sales dropped 36.2% year-over-year, despite a 44.9% surge in overall electric vehicle registrations. Tesla’s sales fell 29% last month in Spain, according to the ANFAC industry group. These declines highlight shifting consumer preferences amid growing competition.

On a positive note, Tesla is making strategic moves. The Model 3 and Model Y are part of a Chinese government campaign to boost rural sales, potentially mitigating losses. Piper Sandler analysts reiterated an Overweight rating, emphasizing Tesla’s supply chain strategy.

Alexander Potter stated, “Thanks to vertical integration, Tesla is the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China.”

As Tesla navigates these delivery challenges, its focus on innovation and supply chain resilience could help it maintain its edge in the electric vehicle market despite short-term hurdles.

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Elon Musk explains Tesla’s domestic battery strategy

Elon Musk responded to a new note from an analyst that highlighted Tesla’s battery strategy.

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Elon Musk giving YouTube tech reviewer Marques Brownlee a tour of the Fremont factory. (Credit: MKBHD/YouTube)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk explained the automaker’s strategy for building batteries from top to bottom in a domestic setting as the company continues to alleviate its reliance on Chinese materials, something other companies are too dependent on.

With the Trump Administration, it is no secret that the prioritization of U.S.-built products, including sourcing most of the materials from American companies, is at the forefront of its strategy.

The goal is to become less dependent on foreign products, which would, in theory, bolster the U.S. economy by creating more jobs and having less reliance on foreign markets, especially China, to manufacture the key parts of things like cars and tech.

In a note from Alexander Potter, an analyst for the firm Piper Sandler, Tesla’s strategy regarding batteries specifically is broken down.

Potter says Tesla is “the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China.”

He continues:

“Eventually, Tesla will be making its own cathode active materials, refining its own lithium, building its own anodes, coating its own electrodes, assembling its own cells, and selling its own cars; No other US company can make similar claims.”

Musk, who spent time within the Trump White House through his work with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), said that Tesla is doing the “important” work of localizing supply chains as the risks that come with being too dependent on foreign entities could be detrimental to a company, especially one that utilizes many parts and supplies that are manufactured mostly in China.

Tesla has done a lot of work to source and even manufacture its own batteries within the United States, a project that has been in progress for several years but will pay dividends in the end.

According to a 2023 Nikkei analysis, Tesla’s battery material suppliers were dominated by Chinese companies. At the time, a whopping 39 percent of the company’s cell materials came from Chinese companies.

This number is decreasing as it operates its own in-house cell and material production projects, like its lithium refinery in Texas.

It also wants to utilize battery manufacturers that have plans to build cells in the U.S.

Panasonic, for example, is building a facility in Kansas that will help Tesla utilize domestically-manufactured cells for its cars.

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Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

Could Tesla dive into the eVTOL market? Morgan Stanley takes a look.

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Daniel Oberhaus, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla shares are up nearly 20 percent in the past month, but that is not stopping the only trillion-dollar automaker from attracting all types of new potential sectors to disrupt, at least from an investor and analyst perspective.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is not one to shy away from some ideas that many investors would consider far-fetched. In a recent note, Jonas brought up some interesting discussion regarding Tesla’s potential in the eVTOL industry, and how he believes CEO Elon Musk’s answer was not convincing enough to put it off altogether.

Tesla’s Elon Musk says electric planes would be ‘fun problem to work on’

Musk said that Tesla was “stretched pretty thin” when a question regarding a plane being developed came up. Jonas said:

“In our opinion, that’s a decidedly different type of answer. Is Tesla an aviation/defense-tech company in auto/consumer clothing?”

Musk has been pretty clear about things that Tesla won’t do. Although he has not unequivocally denied aviation equipment, including planes and drones, as he has with things like motorcycles, it does not seem like something that is on Musk’s mind.

Instead, he has focused the vast majority of his time at Tesla on vehicle autonomy, AI, and robotics, things he sees as the future.

Tesla and China, Robotics, Pricing

Morgan Stanley’s note also discussed Tesla’s prowess in its various areas of expertise, how it will keep up with Chinese competitors, as there are several, and the race for affordable EVs in the country.

Tesla is the U.S.’s key to keeping up with China

“In our view, Tesla’s expertise in manufacturing, data collection, robotics/ physical AI, energy, supply chain, and infrastructure are more critical than ever before to put the US on an even footing with China in embodied AI,” Jonas writes.

It is no secret that Tesla is the leader in revolutionizing things. To generalize, the company has truly dipped its finger in all the various pies, but it is also looked at as a leader in tech, which is where Chinese companies truly have an advantage.

Robotics and the ‘Humanoid Olympics’

Jonas mentioned China’s recent showcasing of robots running half marathons and competing in combat sports as “gamification of robotic innovation.”

Tesla could be at the forefront of the effort to launch something similar, as the analyst predicts the U.S. version could be called “Humanoid Ninja Warrior.”

Pricing

Tesla is set to launch affordable models before the end of Q2, leaving this month for the company to release some details.

While the pricing of those models remains in limbo with the $7,500 tax credit likely disappearing at the end of 2024, companies in China have been able to tap incredibly aggressive pricing models. Jonas, for example, brings up the BYD Seagull, which is priced at just about $8,000.

Tesla can tap into an incredibly broader market if it can manage to bring pricing to even below $30,000, which is where many hope the affordable models end up.

During the Q3 2024 Earnings Call, Musk said that $30,000 is where it would be with the tax credit:

“Yeah. It will be like with incentive. So, 30K, which is kind of a key threshold.”

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