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Rocket Lab, Virgin Orbit lead a new class of small rockets with big ambitions for 2021

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SpaceX’s reign as the only privately funded American spaceflight company to reach and successfully deploy small satellite payloads into orbit ended on January 21, 2018, when Rocket Lab’s Electron rocket delivered three customer CubeSats to orbit for the first time.

SpaceX and Rocket Lab have since been the only private American companies to offer dedicated and rideshare delivery of small satellites to orbit. That is until Virgin Orbit joined the competition with the success of its Launch Demo 2 mission earlier this week.

Airdropping rockets

On Sunday, January 17, Virgin Orbit – one of two spaceflight companies backed by billionaire Richard Branson – joined SpaceX and Rocket Lab as the next private American rocket launcher sending small satellites to space. Virgin Orbit delivers its payload slightly differently than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. Virgin Orbit can uniquely offer its customers the flexibility of launch site because its liquid-fueled rocket is dropped mid-air from under the wing of a massive Boeing 747 before propelling itself to space.

https://twitter.com/Virgin_Orbit/status/1351265749562626050

In the Spring of 2020 Virgin Orbit conducted its first Launch Demo mission off of the coast of southern California. Prior to the rocket’s first stage ignition, the company achieved the majority of its intended test flight targets. Just after LauncherOne’s first stage ignition the rocket prematurely shut down resulting in the complete loss of the rocket and its payload as it fell to the ocean.

LauncherOne arrives on the runway at Long Beach Airport for a fit check with Cosmic Girl in October 2018. Credit: Virgin Orbit/Greg Robinson.

After months of investigation, Virgin Orbit attributed the prematurely terminated flight to a component failure that led to a breach of a high-pressure line starving the engine of Liquid Oxygen resulting in the immediate loss of propulsion. The issue was remedied quickly and Virgin Orbit aimed to fly and launch again in December 2020 for its Launch Demo 2 mission attempting to successfully achieve orbit by the close of the year. In mid-December, the launch date of Launch Demo 2 was postponed until January 2021 due to impacts to operation and scheduling caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Virgin Orbit’s 747, Cosmic Girl, piloted by Kelly Latimer took to the skies on Sunday, January 17 with a fully fueled LauncherOne rocket loaded with a payload of nine CubeSat missions made up of ten spacecraft for NASA’s Educational Launch of NanoSatellites (ELaNa XX) series contracted under NASA’s Venture Class Launch Services program.

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Cosmic Girl releases LauncherOne mid-air for the first time during a July 2019 drop test. Credit: Virgin Orbit/Greg Robinson.

The Launch Demo 2 mission went off without a hitch. Just as with the first Launch Demo, all pre-launch activities proceeded nominally with Cosmic Girl reaching an altitude of 30,000 feet prior to the release of LauncherOne over the Pacific Ocean. Once released into free flight, the rocket’s first stage engine ignited and carried it through the atmosphere until separation and second stage engine ignition beyond the Kármán line – the recognized point at which “space” is defined beyond Earth’s atmosphere. Eventually, all nine payloads were successfully deployed into orbit completing the first-ever successful mission of an orbital class, liquid-fueled, air-launched rocket to reach space.

Another One Leaves The Crust

SpaceX has set the pace for space in 2021 successfully achieving two orbital-class launches within the first twenty days of the year with a third mission scheduled to depart Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Base in Florida on Friday, January 22. Likewise, Rocket Lab looks to aggressively exceed its previous launch record of seven missions in one calendar year. The only way to demolish a previous record is to launch frequently from multiple spaceports. SpaceX currently has three active launchpads, two in Florida and one in California. Within 2021, Rocket Lab will also have three operational launchpads, two in New Zealand and one in Virginia.

On Wednesday, January 20, 2021 – its third anniversary of first making it to orbit – Rocket Lab successfully launched its first Electron mission of 2021 nicknamed “Another One Leaves The Crust.” After standing down from a previous launch attempt on January 16 due to an erroneous sensor, the eighteenth overall mission of the Electron rocket successfully launched and deployed a single communications microsatellite for the European space technology company, OHB Group. The mission took place from Launch Complex 1 in Mahia, New Zealand at 07:26 UTC. This mission brings the total satellites deployed by Rocket Lab to 97.

In a statement provided by Rocket Lab, founder and CEO, Peter Beck, states that “We’re proud to be delivering a speedy and streamlined path to orbit for OHB Group on this mission, with launch taking place within six months of contract signing. By flying as a dedicated mission on Electron, OHB and their mission partners have control over launch timing, orbit, integration schedule, and other mission parameters.”

2021 – The year of the small satellite launcher

Expect SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and Virgin Orbit to be joined by other small launchers looking to break into the market sooner rather than later. Another NASA Venture Class Launch Services provider, Astra – a California-based small satellite launcher that launches from Kodiak, Alaska – narrowly missed beating out Virgin Orbit for the third-place slot in the competition to deliver small satellites to orbit.

On December 15, 2020, Astra launched its small orbital-class vehicle, Rocket 3.2, for the second time from Pacific Spaceport Complex on Kodiak Island, Alaska. The vehicle soared past the Kármán line with the upper stage reaching its targeted altitude of 380 kilometers at 7.2 km/sec but falling just shy of achieving orbital velocity at 7.68 km/sec.

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Astra is not the only small private spaceflight company looking to join the ranks of SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and now Virgin Orbit. Texas-based Firefly Aerospace is also expected to join the elite group of privately funded spacefaring companies this year.

In October 2020, Firefly successfully completed acceptance testing of the first stage of its small class Alpha rocket. The stage completed a 35-second static fire demonstrating a full range of thrust vector control maneuvers. The first stage of the Alpha rocket has since been shipped to Firefly’s launch complex at Space Launch Complex 2 West (SLC-2W) at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. In Novemeber 2020 Firelfy began the integration process of the payloads for the maiden Alpha launch.

In December 2020, Astra and Firefly were awarded Venture Class Launch Services Demonstration 2 firm fixed-priced contracts by NASA’s Launch Services Program along with a third small class launcher, California based Relativity Space. Astra received $3.9 million in funding while Firefly was awarded $9.8 million and Relativity received $3 million to place CubeSats in Low Earth Orbit.

SmallSats and CubeSats are quickly becoming the preferred method of operating in orbit because it is technology and opportunity that is attainable for many smaller companies and other parties interested in reaching space such as universities. As SmallSats continue to rise in popularity so too will the demand to launch them. 2021 is already shaping up to become the year that produces the highest amount of private commercialized spaceflight, ever.

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BREAKING: Tesla launches public Robotaxi rides in Austin with no Safety Monitor

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Tesla has officially launched public Robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas, without a Safety Monitor in the vehicle, marking the first time the company has removed anyone from the vehicle other than the rider.

The Safety Monitor has been present in Tesla Robotaxis in Austin since its launch last June, maintaining safety for passengers and other vehicles, and was placed in the passenger’s seat.

Tesla planned to remove the Safety Monitor at the end of 2025, but it was not quite ready to do so. Now, in January, riders are officially reporting that they are able to hail a ride from a Model Y Robotaxi without anyone in the vehicle:

Tesla started testing this internally late last year and had several employees show that they were riding in the vehicle without anyone else there to intervene in case of an emergency.

Tesla has now expanded that program to the public. It is not active in the entire fleet, but there are a “few unsupervised vehicles mixed in with the broader robotaxi fleet with safety monitors,” Ashok Elluswamy said:

Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing

The Robotaxi program also operates in the California Bay Area, where the fleet is much larger, but Safety Monitors are placed in the driver’s seat and utilize Full Self-Driving, so it is essentially the same as an Uber driver using a Tesla with FSD.

In Austin, the removal of Safety Monitors marks a substantial achievement for Tesla moving forward. Now that it has enough confidence to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis altogether, there are nearly unlimited options for the company in terms of expansion.

While it is hoping to launch the ride-hailing service in more cities across the U.S. this year, this is a much larger development than expansion, at least for now, as it is the first time it is performing driverless rides in Robotaxi anywhere in the world for the public to enjoy.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Earnings Call: Top 5 questions investors are asking

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.

The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.

Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.

There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:

SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms

  1. You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
    1. Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
  2. When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
    1. Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
  3. What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
    1. Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
  4. Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
    1. Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
  5. Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
    1. Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.

Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk shares incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab efficiency

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(Credit: Tesla North America | X)

Elon Musk shared an incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab’s potential efficiency, as the company has hinted in the past that it could be one of the most affordable vehicles to operate from a per-mile basis.

ARK Invest released a report recently that shed some light on the potential incremental cost per mile of various Robotaxis that will be available on the market in the coming years.

The Cybercab, which is detailed for the year 2030, has an exceptionally low cost of operation, which is something Tesla revealed when it unveiled the vehicle a year and a half ago at the “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles.

Musk said on numerous occasions that Tesla plans to hit the $0.20 cents per mile mark with the Cybercab, describing a “clear path” to achieving that figure and emphasizing it is the “full considered” cost, which would include energy, maintenance, cleaning, depreciation, and insurance.

ARK’s report showed that the Cybercab would be roughly half the cost of the Waymo 6th Gen Robotaxi in 2030, as that would come in at around $0.40 per mile all in. Cybercab, at scale, would be at $0.20.

Credit: ARK Invest

This would be a dramatic decrease in the cost of operation for Tesla, and the savings would then be passed on to customers who choose to utilize the ride-sharing service for their own transportation needs.

The U.S. average cost of new vehicle ownership is about $0.77 per mile, according to AAA. Meanwhile, Uber and Lyft rideshares often cost between $1 and $4 per mile, while Waymo can cost between $0.60 and $1 or more per mile, according to some estimates.

Tesla’s engineering has been the true driver of these cost efficiencies, and its focus on creating a vehicle that is as cost-effective to operate as possible is truly going to pay off as the vehicle begins to scale. Tesla wants to get the Cybercab to about 5.5-6 miles per kWh, which has been discussed with prototypes.

Additionally, fewer parts due to the umboxed manufacturing process, a lower initial cost, and eliminating the need to pay humans for their labor would also contribute to a cheaper operational cost overall. While aspirational, all of the ingredients for this to be a real goal are there.

It may take some time as Tesla needs to hammer the manufacturing processes, and Musk has said there will be growing pains early. This week, he said regarding the early production efforts:

“…initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast.”

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