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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that BFR could cost less to build than Falcon 9

SpaceX continues to build the first Starship prototype in South Texas. (NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal - 01/27/19)

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk believes that there may be a path for the company to ultimately build the massive Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster (formerly BFR) for less than Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy, a rocket 3-9 times smaller than BFR.

While it certainly ranks high on the list of wild and wacky things the CEO has said over the years, there may be a few ways – albeit with healthy qualifications – that Starship/Super Heavy production costs could ultimately compare favorably with SpaceX’s Falcon family of launch vehicles. Nevertheless, there are at least as many ways in which the next-gen rocket can (or should) never be able to beat the production cost of what is effectively a far simpler rocket.

Dirty boosters done dirt cheap

On the one hand, Musk might not necessarily be wrong, especially if one throws the CEO several bones in the interpretation of his brief tweet. BFR at its simplest is going to require a full 38 main rocket engines to achieve its nominal performance goals, 7 on Starship and 31 on Super Heavy. As a dramatically more advanced, larger, and far more complex engine, Raptor will (with very little doubt) cost far more per engine than the relatively simple Merlin 1D. BFR avionics (flight computers, electronics, wiring, harnesses) are likely to be more of a known quantity, meaning that costs will probably be comparable or even lower than Falcon 9’s when measured as a proportion of overall vehicle cost. Assuming that BFR can use the exact same cold gas thruster assemblies currently flying on Falcon 9, that cost should only grow proportionally with vehicle size. Finally, Starship will not require a deployable payload fairing (~10% of Falcon 9’s production cost).

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All of those things mean that Starship/Super Heavy will probably be starting off with far better cost efficiency than Falcon 9 was able to, thanks to almost a decade of interim experience both building, flying, and refurbishing the rocket since its 2010 debut. Still, BFR will have to account for entirely new structures like six large tripod fins/wings and their actuators, wholly new thrust structures (akin to Falcon 9’s octaweb) for both stages, and more. Considering Starship on its own, the production of a human-rated spacecraft capable of safely housing dozens of people in space for weeks or months will almost without a doubt rival the cost of airliner production, where a 737 – with almost half a century of production and flight heritage – still holds a price tag of $100-130+ million.

 

Adding one more assumption, the most lenient interpretation of Musk’s tweet assumes that he is really only subjecting the overall structure (sans engines and any crew-relevant hardware) of BFR relative to Falcon 9. In other words, could a ~300-ton stainless steel rocket structure (BFR) cost the same amount or less to fabricate than a ~30-ton aluminum-lithium alloy rocket structure (Falcon 9/Heavy)? From the very roughest of numerical comparisons, Musk estimated the cost of the stainless steel alloys (300-series) to be used for BFR at around $3 per pound ($6.60/kg), while aluminum-lithium alloys used in aerospace (and on Falcon 9) are sold for around $20/lb ($44/kg)*. As such, simply buying the materials to build the basic structures of BFR and Falcon 9 would cost around and $7.5M and $5M, respectively.

Assuming that the process of assembling, welding, and integrating Starship and Super Heavy structures is somehow 5-10 times cheaper, easier, and less labor-intensive, it’s actually not inconceivable that the cost of building BFR’s structure could ultimately compete with Falcon 9 after production has stabilized after the new rocket’s prototyping phase is over and manufacturing processes are mature.

*Very rough estimate, difficult to find a public cost per unit mass from modern Al-Li suppliers

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A rough visualization of the size of Starhopper, Starship, and Super Heavy. (Austin Barnard, Teslarati)

Costs vs. benefits

On the opposite hand, stainless steel rockets do not have a history of being uniquely cost-effective relative to vehicles using alternative materials. The only orbital-class launch vehicles to use stainless steel (and balloon) tanks are the Atlas booster and the Centaur upper stage, with Atlas dating back to the late 1950s and Centaur beginning launches in the early ’60s. Stainless steel Atlas launches ended in 2005 with the final Atlas III mission, while multiple forms of Centaur continue to fly regularly on ULA’s Atlas V and Delta IV.

Based on a 1966 contract between NASA and General Dynamics placed shortly after Centaur’s tortured development had largely been completed, Centaur upper stages were priced around $25M apiece (2018 USD). In 1980, the hardware for a dedicated Atlas-Centaur launch of a ~1500 kg Comstar I satellite to GTO cost the US the 2018 equivalent of a bit less than $40M ($71M including miscellaneous administrative costs) – $22.4M for Centaur and $17.6M for Atlas. For Atlas, the rocket’s airframe (tanks and general structure) was purchased for around $8.5M. That version of Atlas-Centaur (Atlas-SLV3D Centaur-D1A) was capable of lifting around 5100 kg (11,250 lb) into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and 1800 kg (~4000 lb) to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), while it stood around 40m (130 ft) tall, had a tank diameter of 3.05m (10 ft), and weighed ~150t (330,000 lb) fully fueled.

 

In a very loose sense, that particular stainless steel Atlas variant was about half as large and half as capable as the first flight-worthy version of Falcon 9 at roughly the same price at launch ($60-70M). What does this jaunt through the history books tell us about the prospects of a stainless steel Starship and Super Heavy? Well, not much. The problem with trying to understand and pick apart official claims about SpaceX’s next-generation launch architecture is quite simple: only one family of rockets in the history of the industry (Atlas) regularly flew with stainless steel propellant tanks, a half-century lineage that completed its final launch in 2005.

Generally speaking, an industrial sample size of more or less one makes it far from easy to come to any particular conclusions about a given technology or practice, and SpaceX – according to CEO Elon Musk – fully intends to push past the state of the art of stainless steel rocket tankage with BFR. Ultimately, American Marietta/Martin Marietta/Lockheed Martin was never able to produce launch vehicle variants of the stainless steel Atlas family at a cost more than marginally competitive with Falcon 9, despite the latter rocket’s use of a far more expensive metal alloy throughout its primary tanks and structure.

At some point, it’s even worth asking whether the per-unit cost of Starship and Super Heavy should be relevant at all to their design and construction, at least within reason. If the goal of BFR is to drastically lower the cost of launch by radically improving the ease of reuse, it would be truly bizarre (and utterly unintuitive) if those goals could somehow be achieved without dramatically raising the cost of initial hardware procurement. Perhaps the best close comparison to BFR’s goals, modern airliners are eyewateringly expensive ($100-500M apiece) as a consequence of the extraordinary reliability, performance, efficiency, and longevity customers and regulatory agencies demand from them, although those costs are admittedly not the absolute lowest they could be in a perfect manufacturing scenario.

At the end of the day, it appears that Musk is increasingly of the opinion that the pivot to stainless steel could ultimately make BFR simultaneously “better, faster, [&] cheaper”. However improbable that may be, if it does turn out to be the case, Starship and Super Heavy could be an unfathomable leap ahead for reliable and affordable access to space. It could also be another case of Musk’s excitement and optimism getting the better of him and hyping a given product well beyond what it ultimately is able to achieve. Time will tell!


Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes!

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX to debut new Dragon capsule in Axiom Space launch

Ax-4’s launch marks the debut of SpaceX’s latest Crew Dragon and pushes Axiom closer to building its own space station.

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(Credit: SpaceX)

Axiom Space’s Ax-4 mission targets the International Space Station (ISS) with a new SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule.

The Axiom team will launch a new SpaceX Dragon capsule atop a Falcon 9 rocket from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Wednesday at 8:00 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT). The Ax-4 mission launch was initially set for Tuesday, June 10, but was delayed by one day due to expected high winds.

As Axiom Space’s fourth crewed mission to the ISS, Ax-4 marks the debut of an updated SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule. “This is the first flight for this Dragon capsule, and it’s carrying an international crew—a perfect debut. We’ve upgraded storage, propulsion components, and the seat lash design for improved reliability and reuse,” said William Gerstenmaier, SpaceX’s vice president of build and flight reliability.

Axiom Space is a Houston-based private space infrastructure company. It has been launching private astronauts to the ISS for research and training since 2022, building expertise for its future station. With NASA planning to decommission the ISS by 2030, Axiom has laid the groundwork for the Axiom Station, the world’s first commercial space station. The company has already begun construction on its ISS replacement.

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The Ax-4 mission’s research, spanning biological, life, and material sciences and Earth observation, will support this ambitious goal. Contributions from 31 countries underscore the mission’s global scope. The four-person crew will launch from Launch Complex 39A, embarking on a 14-day mission to conduct approximately 60 scientific studies.

“The AX-4 crew represents the very best of international collaboration, dedication, and human potential. Over the past 10 months, these astronauts have trained with focus and determination, each of them exceeding the required thresholds to ensure mission safety, scientific rigor, and operational excellence,” said Allen Flynt, Axiom Space’s chief of mission services.

The Ax-4 mission highlights Axiom’s commitment to advancing commercial space exploration. By leveraging SpaceX’s Dragon capsule and conducting diverse scientific experiments, Axiom is paving the way for its Axiom Station. This mission not only strengthens international collaborations but also positions Axiom as a leader in the evolving landscape of private space infrastructure.

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SpaceX

SpaceX Dragon to carry Axiom’s Ax-4 crew for ISS research

On June 10, Axiom’s Ax-4 mission heads to the ISS on a SpaceX Dragon capsule. It’s a historic return to space for India, Poland & Hungary.

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(Credit: SpaceX)

Axiom Space’s Ax-4 mission, launched on a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, will carry a historic international crew to the International Space Station (ISS) next Tuesday, June 10, from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

SpaceX’s Dragon capsule was recently photographed preparing for the Ax-4 launch. The Dragon will dock at the ISS on June 11 at approximately 12:30 p.m. ET for a 14-day mission focused on groundbreaking microgravity research.

The Ax-4 crew will be led by Commander Peggy Whitson from the United States. It includes Pilot Shubhanshu Shukla from India and mission specialists Sławosz Uznański-Wiśniewski from Poland and the European Space Agency and Tibor Kapu from Hungary. This mission marks a historic return to human spaceflight for India, Poland, and Hungary as each nation sends its first government-sponsored astronauts in over 40 years.

“With a culturally diverse crew, we are not only advancing scientific knowledge but also fostering international collaboration. Our previous missions set the stage, and with Ax-4, we ascend even higher, bringing more nations to low-Earth orbit and expanding humanity’s reach among the stars,” Whitson noted.

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The Ax-4 mission’s research portfolio will be Axiom’s most extensive. It includes 60 scientific studies from 31 countries, including the U.S., India, Poland, Hungary, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Nigeria, the UAE, and Europe. These studies will advance knowledge in human research, Earth observation, life, and biological and material sciences. Key investigations include supporting astronauts with insulin-dependent diabetes, examining microgravity’s impact on the brain, and studying cancer growth, particularly triple-negative breast cancer. Additional research will explore blood stem cells, joint health, blood flow, and astronaut readiness using wearable devices, iPhone software, and AWS Snowcone analytics.

Axiom Space’s partnerships with research organizations and academic institutions aim to deepen understanding of spaceflight’s effects on the human body, with potential applications for Earth-based healthcare. The Ax-4 mission underscores Axiom’s role in redefining access to low-Earth orbit, fostering global collaboration, and advancing microgravity research. As SpaceX’s Dragon enables this historic mission, it reinforces the company’s pivotal role in commercial spaceflight and scientific discovery.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX to decommission Dragon spacecraft in response to Pres. Trump war of words with Elon Musk

Elon Musk says SpaceX will decommission Dragon as a result of President Trump’s threat to end his subsidies and government contracts.

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SpaceX will decommission its Dragon spacecraft in response to the intense war of words that President Trump and CEO Elon Musk have entered on various social media platforms today.

President Trump and Musk, who was once considered a right-hand man to Trump, have entered a vicious war of words on Thursday. The issues stem from Musk’s disagreement with the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which will increase the U.S. federal deficit, the Tesla and SpaceX frontman says.

How Tesla could benefit from the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ that axes EV subsidies

The insults and threats have been brutal, as Trump has said he doesn’t know if he’ll respect Musk again, and Musk has even stated that the President would not have won the election in November if it were not for him.

President Trump then said later in the day that:

“The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Government Subsidies and Contracts. I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!”

Musk’s response was simple: he will decommission the SpaceX capsule responsible for transporting crew and cargo to the International Space Station (ISS): Dragon.

Dragon has completed 51 missions, 46 of which have been to the ISS. It is capable of carrying up to 7 passengers to and from Earth’s orbit. It is the only spacecraft that is capable of returning vast amounts of cargo to Earth. It is also the first private spacecraft to take humans to the ISS.

The most notable mission Dragon completed is one of its most recent, as SpaceX brought NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth after being stranded at the ISS by a Boeing Starliner capsule.

SpaceX’s reluctance to participate in federally funded projects may put the government in a strange position. It will look to bring Boeing back in to take a majority of these projects, but there might be some reluctance based on the Starliner mishap with Wilmore and Williams.

SpaceX bails out Boeing and employees are reportedly ‘humiliated’

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