SpaceX
NASA and SpaceX will determine fate of Crew Dragon launch debut this Friday
Although the chances of additional delays are high, the orbital launch debut of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft remains stoically targeted for 2:47 am EDT (07:47 UTC) on March 2nd, less than ten days from today.
Known as DM-1, the unproven SpaceX vehicle’s autonomous demonstration mission is a critical milestone along the road to assured US access to the International Space Station (ISS), without which NASA will be forced to continue procuring seats on Russian Soyuz missions with aggressively inflated price tags. If everything goes exactly as planned, a successful DM-1 could translate into the company’s first crewed launch as early as July 2019.
Targeting March 2 for Crew Dragon's first flight to the @Space_Station https://t.co/oJRtDhV3aL pic.twitter.com/lLw1FJHLvI
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) February 6, 2019
Following a nominal mission plan, the first spaceworthy Crew Dragon will dock with the ISS a little over 24 hours after launch (March 3rd) with around 180 kg (400 lb) of cargo for the station’s six-astronaut crew. Five days later (March 8th), Crew Dragon will depart from the ISS, detach its expendable trunk, and reenter Earth’s atmosphere for a soft landing in the Atlantic Ocean. Throughout these operations, ISS astronauts, NASA technicians and operators, and a range of SpaceX employees will conduct extensive observations and tests of the new spacecraft’s performance during all mission phases, ranging from on-orbit docking (a new technology for SpaceX) to Atlantic Ocean recovery operations.
-->Once the capsule has been extricated from the ocean, SpaceX’s spacecraft refurbishment technicians will be faced with an extraordinary challenge, upon which the date of Crew Dragon’s first crewed launch will directly hinge. Assuming splashdown ops are nominal and Dragon is returned safely to Florida, it’s safe to assume that SpaceX will transport the spacecraft to its Hawthorne factory, at which point its engineers and technicians will have roughly two months to prepare it for another launch. Known as an in-flight abort (IFA) test, SpaceX specifically opted to perform the spacecraft safety check despite the fact that NASA did not explicitly require its commercial providers (Boeing and SpaceX) to do so. SpaceX completed Crew Dragon’s pad abort test – required by NASA – almost four years ago, while Boeing will not perform an in-flight abort before launching astronauts and has its pad abort scheduled no earlier than (NET) May 2019.
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- Falcon 9 B1051 has spent several months testing at SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas facilities in preparation for DM-1. (SpaceX)
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- The first orbit-ready Crew Dragon spacecraft stands beside its human-rated Falcon 9, December 2018. (SpaceX)
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- Crew Dragon shows off its conformal (i.e. curved) solar array while connected to SpaceX’s sleek Crew Access Arm (CAA). (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX completed a successful static fire of the first Falcon 9 rated for human flight on January 24th. (SpaceX)
SpaceX’s IFA test is designed to verify that Crew Dragon is capable of safely extricating its astronaut passengers from a failing rocket at the point of peak aerodynamic (and thus mechanical) stress during launch, known as Max Q. Combined with a pad abort demonstration, where the above situation is replicated but with the rocket and spacecraft motionless on the launch pad, the engineering assumption is that successful aborts at both standstill and Max Q verify that a given spacecraft has proven that it can essentially abort and carry astronauts to safety at any point during launch.
“The launch scenario where an abort is initiated during the ascent trajectory at the maximum dynamic pressure (known as max Q) is a design driver for the launch abort system. It dictates the highest thrust and minimum relative acceleration required between Falcon 9 and the aborting Dragon … Dragon would separate from Falcon 9 at the interface between the trunk and the second stage… Under these conditions, the Falcon 9 vehicle would become uncontrollable and would break apart.” – SpaceX FAA permit, 2018
Aside from a boilerplate Merlin Vacuum engine on the second stage, SpaceX’s IFA test is set to fly on real Falcon 9 hardware that will almost certainly be consigned to total destruction at the point of abort, around 90 seconds after launch. SpaceX’s decision to expend an entirely flightworthy Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket – featuring a booster capable of supporting anywhere from 5-100 lifetime missions – is a tangible demonstration of the company’s commitment to crew safety above all else, although NASA will either partially or fully compensate SpaceX for the milestone. Set to occur no earlier than June 2019, the IFA schedule is explicitly constrained by the successful launch and recovery of Crew Dragon after DM-1 – any delays to that mission will likely translate into IFA delays, which will translate into delays for the first crewed mission (DM-2).
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SpaceX’s Cargo Dragon engineers and technicians have a solid amount of experience refurbishing the spacecraft for cargo missions to the ISS, although the average turnaround for flight-proven capsules currently stands around 18-24 months, not exactly on the heels of the 2-3 months currently alotted for the first Crew Dragon. Thanks to the fact that the IFA Crew Dragon does not need to be refurbished to the standards of orbital flight for its second launch, it’s at least conceivable that that aspirational schedule is within reach. SpaceX’s first crewed demonstration mission (DM-2) could occur as early as one month after a successful IFA (July 2019), pending the completion of joint NASA-SpaceX readiness reviews.
Known as flight readiness reviews (FRRs), those joint reviews are no less significant for DM-1, even if they likely are underwhelmingly marked by a copious amount of slideshow presentations and sitting around tables in meeting rooms. The purpose of the reviews (at least nominally) is to essentially have SpaceX attempt to convince NASA (as empirically as possible) that they are ready to launch Crew Dragon. According to NASA, that review will end NET 6pm EDT (23:00 UTC) on February 22nd, followed one hour later by an official press conference featuring NASA and SpaceX officials.
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk gives nod to SpaceX’s massive, previously impossible feat
It was the booster’s 30th flight, a scenario that seemed impossible before SpaceX became a dominant force in spaceflight.
Elon Musk gave a nod to one of SpaceX’s most underrated feats today. Following the successful launch of the Transporter-15 mission, SpaceX seamlessly landed another Falcon 9 booster on a droneship in the middle of the ocean.
It was the booster’s 30th flight, a scenario that seemed impossible before SpaceX became a dominant force in spaceflight.
Elon Musk celebrates a veteran Falcon 9 booster’s feat
SpaceX completed another major milestone for its Smallsat Rideshare program on Friday, successfully launching and deploying 140 spacecraft aboard a Falcon 9 from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The mission, known as Transporter-15, lifted off two days later than planned after a scrub attributed to a ground systems issue, according to SpaceFlight Now. SpaceX confirmed that all payloads designed to separate from the rocket were deployed as planned.
The Falcon 9 used for this flight was booster B1071, one of SpaceX’s most heavily flown rockets. With its 30th mission completed, it becomes the second booster in SpaceX’s fleet to reach that milestone. B1071’s manifest includes five National Reconnaissance Office missions, NASA’s SWOT satellite, and several previous rideshare deployments, among others. Elon Musk celebrated the milestone on X, writing “30 flights of the same rocket!” in his post.
Skeptics once dismissed reusability as unfeasible
While rocket landings are routine for SpaceX today, that was not always the case. Industry veterans previously questioned whether reusable rockets could ever achieve meaningful cost savings or operational reliability, often citing the Space Shuttle’s partial reusability as evidence of failure.
-->In 2016, Orbital ATK’s Ben Goldberg argued during a panel that even if rockets could be reusable, they do not make a lot of sense. He took issue with Elon Musk’s claims at the time, Ars Technica reported, particularly when the SpaceX founder stated that fuel costs account for just a fraction of launch costs.
Goldberg noted that at most, studies showed only a 30% cost reduction for low-Earth orbit missions by using a reusable rocket. “You’re not going to get 100-fold. These numbers aren’t going to change by an order of magnitude. They’re just not. That’s the state of where we are today,” he said.
Former NASA official Dan Dumbacher, who oversaw the Space Launch System, expressed similar doubts in 2014, implying that if NASA couldn’t make full reusability viable, private firms like SpaceX faced steep odds.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s Starship program is already bouncing back from Booster 18 fiasco
Just over a week since Booster 18 met its untimely end, SpaceX is now busy stacking Booster 19, and at a very rapid pace, too.
SpaceX is already bouncing back from the fiasco that it experienced during Starship Booster 18’s initial tests earlier this month.
Just over a week since Booster 18 met its untimely end, SpaceX is now busy stacking Booster 19, and at a very rapid pace, too.
Starship V3 Booster 19 is rising
As per Starbase watchers on X, SpaceX rolled out the fourth aft section of Booster 19 to Starbase’s MegaBay this weekend, stacking it to reach 15 rings tall with just a few sections remaining. This marks the fastest booster assembly to date at four sections in five days. This is quite impressive, and it bodes well for SpaceX’s Starship V3 program, which is expected to be a notable step up from the V2 program, which was retired after a flawless Flight 11.
Starship watcher TankWatchers noted the tempo on X, stating, “During the night the A4 section of Booster 19 rolled out to the MegaBay. With 4 sections in just 5 days, this is shaping up to be the fastest booster stack ever.” Fellow Starbase watcher TestFlight echoed the same sentiments. “Booster 19 is now 15 rings tall, with 3 aft sections remaining!” the space enthusiast wrote.
Aggressive targets despite Booster 18 fiasco
SpaceX’s V3 program encountered a speed bump earlier this month when Booster 18, just one day after rolling out into the factory, experienced a major anomaly during gas system pressure testing at SpaceX’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas. While no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and no one was injured in the incident, the unexpected end of Booster 18 sparked speculation that the Starship V3 program could face delays.
-->Despite the Booster 18 fiasco, however, SpaceX announced that “Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.” Elon Musk shared a similar timeline on X earlier this year, with the CEO stating that “ V3 is a massive upgrade from the current V2 and should be through production and testing by end of year, with heavy flight activity next year.”
Considering that Booster 19 seems to be moving through its production phases quickly, perhaps SpaceX’s Q1 2026 target for Flight 12 might indeed be more than feasible.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk shares SpaceX’s directive that destroys a prevalent media narrative
Musk’s comments followed Starlink’s initiatives for people affected by severe flooding in Indonesia and Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka.
Elon Musk recently shared SpaceX’s standing policy to offer free Starlink service during natural disasters worldwide, highlighting the company’s commitment to pursue aid over profit during times of need.
Musk’s comments followed Starlink’s initiatives for people affected by severe flooding in Indonesia and Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka.
Starlink activates free service in Indonesia and Sri Lanka
Starlink recently announced free service for those impacted by severe flooding in Indonesia’s Sumatra region, partnering with the government to deploy terminals rapidly to the hardest-hit areas. The offer extends to new and existing customers through December, restoring connectivity in zones where traditional networks have failed due to infrastructure damage.
Musk quoted the post on X, writing, “SpaceX standard policy is to make Starlink free whenever there is a natural disaster somewhere in the world. It would not be right to profit from misfortune.”
Starlink extended the same relief to Sri Lanka amid Cyclone Ditwah, coordinating with local authorities for additional support. The cyclone battered the island nation with heavy rains and winds, disrupting communications for thousands. Free access also lasts until year-end, emphasizing Starlink’s role in bridging gaps during crises.
-->“For those affected by the severe flooding in Indonesia and Sri Lanka in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, Starlink is providing free service to new and existing customers through the end of December 2025. We’re also working with the Indonesian government to rapidly deploy terminals and restore connectivity to the hardest-hit areas on Sumatra, as well as with the Sri Lankan government to provide additional assistance,” Starlink wrote in a post on its official website.
Musk’s companies routinely provide aid
Musk’s firms have a track record of providing critical support in crises, often without fanfare, challenging portrayals of him as a comic book villain intent on enriching himself on the backs of a suffering populace. In January 2024 alone, Tesla opened Superchargers for free in Japan’s Hokuriku region after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake killed at least 55 and injured hundreds.
Similar efforts include Starlink deployments for the 2023 Maui wildfires, 2024 Hurricane Helene in North Carolina, and floods in Texas, where the service was used to help facilitate emergency coordination. These actions, which total millions in waived fees and logistics, demonstrate a proactive ethos among Musk’s companies, with Musk noting in past interviews that such aid stems from engineering solutions over optics.
The initiatives also provide a direct rebuttal of Musk’s characterization on mainstream media, which tends to lean negatively. This has become much more notable in recent years as Musk adopted more conservative policies. These negative sentiments came to a head earlier this year when Tesla stores, vehicles, and even some owners, were attacked during waves of anti-Tesla protests.
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