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NASA and SpaceX will determine fate of Crew Dragon launch debut this Friday

Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 are ready for the spacecraft's orbital launch debut, NET March 2nd. (SpaceX)

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Although the chances of additional delays are high, the orbital launch debut of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft remains stoically targeted for 2:47 am EDT (07:47 UTC) on March 2nd, less than ten days from today.

Known as DM-1, the unproven SpaceX vehicle’s autonomous demonstration mission is a critical milestone along the road to assured US access to the International Space Station (ISS), without which NASA will be forced to continue procuring seats on Russian Soyuz missions with aggressively inflated price tags. If everything goes exactly as planned, a successful DM-1 could translate into the company’s first crewed launch as early as July 2019.

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Following a nominal mission plan, the first spaceworthy Crew Dragon will dock with the ISS a little over 24 hours after launch (March 3rd) with around 180 kg (400 lb) of cargo for the station’s six-astronaut crew. Five days later (March 8th), Crew Dragon will depart from the ISS, detach its expendable trunk, and reenter Earth’s atmosphere for a soft landing in the Atlantic Ocean. Throughout these operations, ISS astronauts, NASA technicians and operators, and a range of SpaceX employees will conduct extensive observations and tests of the new spacecraft’s performance during all mission phases, ranging from on-orbit docking (a new technology for SpaceX) to Atlantic Ocean recovery operations.

Once the capsule has been extricated from the ocean, SpaceX’s spacecraft refurbishment technicians will be faced with an extraordinary challenge, upon which the date of Crew Dragon’s first crewed launch will directly hinge. Assuming splashdown ops are nominal and Dragon is returned safely to Florida, it’s safe to assume that SpaceX will transport the spacecraft to its Hawthorne factory, at which point its engineers and technicians will have roughly two months to prepare it for another launch. Known as an in-flight abort (IFA) test, SpaceX specifically opted to perform the spacecraft safety check despite the fact that NASA did not explicitly require its commercial providers (Boeing and SpaceX) to do so. SpaceX completed Crew Dragon’s pad abort test – required by NASA – almost four years ago, while Boeing will not perform an in-flight abort before launching astronauts and has its pad abort scheduled no earlier than (NET) May 2019.

 

SpaceX’s IFA test is designed to verify that Crew Dragon is capable of safely extricating its astronaut passengers from a failing rocket at the point of peak aerodynamic (and thus mechanical) stress during launch, known as Max Q. Combined with a pad abort demonstration, where the above situation is replicated but with the rocket and spacecraft motionless on the launch pad, the engineering assumption is that successful aborts at both standstill and Max Q verify that a given spacecraft has proven that it can essentially abort and carry astronauts to safety at any point during launch.

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“The launch scenario where an abort is initiated during the ascent trajectory at the maximum dynamic pressure (known as max Q) is a design driver for the launch abort system. It dictates the highest thrust and minimum relative acceleration required between Falcon 9 and the aborting Dragon … Dragon would separate from Falcon 9 at the interface between the trunk and the second stage… Under these conditions, the Falcon 9 vehicle would become uncontrollable and would break apart.” – SpaceX FAA permit, 2018

Aside from a boilerplate Merlin Vacuum engine on the second stage, SpaceX’s IFA test is set to fly on real Falcon 9 hardware that will almost certainly be consigned to total destruction at the point of abort, around 90 seconds after launch. SpaceX’s decision to expend an entirely flightworthy Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket – featuring a booster capable of supporting anywhere from 5-100 lifetime missions – is a tangible demonstration of the company’s commitment to crew safety above all else, although NASA will either partially or fully compensate SpaceX for the milestone. Set to occur no earlier than June 2019, the IFA schedule is explicitly constrained by the successful launch and recovery of Crew Dragon after DM-1 – any delays to that mission will likely translate into IFA delays, which will translate into delays for the first crewed mission (DM-2).

An official SpaceX render showing Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon lifting off from Pad 39A. (SpaceX)

SpaceX’s Cargo Dragon engineers and technicians have a solid amount of experience refurbishing the spacecraft for cargo missions to the ISS, although the average turnaround for flight-proven capsules currently stands around 18-24 months, not exactly on the heels of the 2-3 months currently alotted for the first Crew Dragon. Thanks to the fact that the IFA Crew Dragon does not need to be refurbished to the standards of orbital flight for its second launch, it’s at least conceivable that that aspirational schedule is within reach. SpaceX’s first crewed demonstration mission (DM-2) could occur as early as one month after a successful IFA (July 2019), pending the completion of joint NASA-SpaceX readiness reviews.

Known as flight readiness reviews (FRRs), those joint reviews are no less significant for DM-1, even if they likely are underwhelmingly marked by a copious amount of slideshow presentations and sitting around tables in meeting rooms. The purpose of the reviews (at least nominally) is to essentially have SpaceX attempt to convince NASA (as empirically as possible) that they are ready to launch Crew Dragon. According to NASA, that review will end NET 6pm EDT (23:00 UTC) on February 22nd, followed one hour later by an official press conference featuring NASA and SpaceX officials.


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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing as company explores early index entry: report

The company is reportedly seeking early inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is reportedly leaning toward listing its shares on the Nasdaq for a potential initial public offering (IPO) that could become the largest in history. 

As per a recent report, the company is reportedly seeking early inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index. The update was reported by Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter.

According to the publication, SpaceX is considering Nasdaq as the venue for its eventual IPO, though the New York Stock Exchange is also competing for the listing. Neither exchange has reportedly been informed of a final decision.

Reuters has previously reported that SpaceX could pursue an IPO as early as June, though the company’s plans could still change.

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One of the publication’s sources also suggested that SpaceX is targeting a valuation of about $1.75 trillion for its IPO. At that level, the company would rank among the largest publicly traded firms in the United States by market capitalization.

Nasdaq has proposed a rule change that could accelerate the inclusion of newly listed megacap companies into the Nasdaq-100 index.

Under the proposed “Fast Entry” rule, a newly listed company could qualify for the index in less than a month if its market capitalization ranks among the top 40 companies already included in the Nasdaq-100.

If SpaceX is successful in achieving its target valuation of $1.75 trillion, it would become the sixth-largest company by market value in the United States, at least based on recent share prices. 

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Newly listed companies typically have to wait up to a year before becoming eligible for major indexes such as the Nasdaq-100 or S&P 500.

Inclusion in a major index can significantly broaden a company’s shareholder base because many institutional investors purchase shares through index-tracking funds.

According to Reuters, Nasdaq’s proposed fast-track rule is partly intended to attract highly valued private companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic to list on the exchange.

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Starbase after dark: Musk’s latest photo captures a Spaceport on the brink of history

SpaceX’s Starbase city in Boca Chica, Texas is rapidly transforming the southern tip of the Lone Star State into one of the most ambitious launch complexes in history.

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Elon Musk shares nighttime view of latest Starbase in Texas

A striking nighttime photograph of SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas, shared recently by Elon Musk on X, offers a dramatic glimpse of an operation that is rapidly transforming the southern tip of the Lone Star State into one of the most ambitious launch complexes in history.

The most immediately visible change in the photo is the presence of two fully erected Starship launch towers dominating the coastal skyline. The second orbital launch pad, known as Pad B, now features its fully erected tower, OLIT-3, which stands approximately 474 feet tall and incorporates an integrated water-cooled flame trench designed to minimize damage and reduce turnaround time between launches. The dual-tower silhouette against the night sky signals a decisive shift from experimental testing facility to high-cadence launch operations.

Grok Image concept of Elon Musk’s latest Starbase photo via X

Back at Starbase, Pad 2 is approaching hardware completion, with upgraded chopstick arms, a new chilldown vent system, and all 20 hold-down arms now fitted with protective doors to shield them from the intense exhaust of up to 33 Raptor 3 engines, according to a deeper dive by NASASpaceFlight.

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SpaceX has also received approval to nearly double the footprint of the Starbase launch site, with groundwork already underway to add LNG liquefaction plants, expanded propellant storage, and additional ground support infrastructure.

The photo also carries a milestone civic dimension. Starbase officially became a Texas city in May 2025 after a community vote, with SpaceX employees elected as mayor and commissioners of the newly incorporated municipality. That legal status streamlines launch approvals and gives SpaceX direct control over local infrastructure decisions.

The FAA has approved an increase in launches from Starbase in Texas from five to twenty-five per year, clearing the runway for the kind of flight frequency needed to fulfill Starship’s ultimate mission of ferrying cargo and crew to the Moon, servicing the Department of Defense, deploying next-generation Starlink satellites, and eventually establishing Elon Musk’s long sought after goal of a self-sustaining human presence on Mars.

Seen from above in the dark, Starbase looks less like a test site and more like a spaceport.

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Elon Musk shares updated Starship V3 maiden launch target date

The comment was posted on Musk’s official account on social media platform X.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk shared a brief Starship V3 update in a post on social media platform X, stating the next launch attempt of the spacecraft could take place in about four weeks.

The comment was posted on Musk’s official account on social media platform X.

Musk’s update suggests that Starship Flight 12 could target a launch around early April, though the schedule will depend on several remaining milestones at SpaceX’s Starbase launch facility in Texas.

Among the key steps is testing and certification of the site’s new launch tower, launch mount, and tank farm systems. These upgrades will support the next generation of Starship vehicles.

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Booster 19 is expected to roll to the launch site and be placed on the launch mount before returning to the production facility to receive its 33 Raptor engines. The booster would then return for a static fire test, which could mark the first time a Super Heavy booster equipped with Raptor V3 engines is fired on the pad.

Ship 39 is expected to undergo a similar preparation process. The vehicle will likely return to the production site to receive its six engines before heading to Massey’s test site for static fire testing.

Once both stages are prepared, the booster and ship will roll out to the launch site for the first full stack of a V3 Super Heavy and V3 Starship. A full wet dress rehearsal is expected to follow before any launch attempt.

Elon Musk has previously shared how SpaceX plans to eventually recover Starship’s upper stage using the launch tower’s robotic arms. Musk noted that the company will only attempt to catch the Starship spacecraft after two successful soft landings in the ocean. The approach is intended to reduce risk before attempting a recovery over land.

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“Should note that SpaceX will only try to catch the ship with the tower after two perfect soft landings in the ocean. The risk of the ship breaking up over land needs to be very low,” Musk wrote in a post on X.

Such a milestone would represent a major step toward the full reuse of the Starship system, which remains a central goal for SpaceX’s long-term launch strategy.

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