SpaceX
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Block 5 ready for first Return-To-Launch-Site booster landing
Falcon 9 B1048.2 is vertical at SpaceX’s Vandenberg Space Launch Complex 4 (SLC-4) facilities ahead of the rocket’s second launch, targeted at 07:21 PM PDT, Oct. 7 (02:21 UTC, Oct. 8). A bit less than ten minutes after liftoff, B1048 will attempt a Return-To-Launch-Site (RTLS) landing just ~1400 feet from the launch pad.
Meanwhile, Mr. Steven is ready to depart Port of San Pedro in support of Falcon fairing recovery operations soon after liftoff, the vessel’s fifth attempted catch in ~12 months of active service with SpaceX.
Falcon 9 B1048 and SAOCOM-1A as of 10:50 PM PDT. Photo courtesy of @_TomCross_ ?? pic.twitter.com/vlaB1fkk5p
— Eric Ralph (@13ericralph31) October 7, 2018
A few hours after the vessel’s four arms and net were fully installed (the first time in more than six weeks), SpaceX technicians performed a series of last-minute tests with a Falcon fairing half placed on his net to verify that its mechanised rigging was working as intended, while also double-checking data connectivity between the fairing and its target (the net). Pre-launch checkouts largely completed, Mr. Steven now has to travel a short 200 miles to reach the region where SpaceX expects Falcon 9’s fairings to be recovered.
- On September 4th, SpaceX performed a mechanical test of a fairing’s separation mechanism, in this case used to hold a (detachable) lifting harness. (Pauline Acalin)
- Note the taut, yellow ropes connected to the fairing at its original serparation connector ports. (Pauline Acalin)
- After an audible “3..2..1”, a sharp noise much like compressed gas being released was followed by a clang as the harness dropped. (Pauline Acalin)
Of Falcons and fairings
It may feel quite different watching in real time, but SpaceX has made a huge amount of progress towards successful and routine fairing recoveries over the course of the last year and a half. Before the company became truly famous (and popular), more than two years (2013-2015) and a dozen distinct attempts were spent patiently learning how to recover Falcon 9 boosters, ranging from the first launch of Falcon 9 V1.1 (CASSIOPE, late 2013) to multiple instances where boosters exploded in spectacular fashions on drone ships Just Read The Instructions and Of Course I Still Love You after SpaceX began true landing attempts.
In fact, the first intact recovery didn’t even take place on a drone ship after years of extensive testing at sea – in December 2015, after separating from its Orbcomm-2 satellite constellation payload, Falcon 9 B1019 became the first booster recovered by SpaceX in one piece, landing almost flawlessly at the company’s just-finished Cape Canaveral landing zone, known as LZ-1. Several months later, SpaceX successfully recovered its first Falcon 9 at sea, landing a booster on OCISLY shortly after launching the CRS-8 Cargo Dragon mission, although several more failures or near-failures followed as recovery technicians and engineers worked through a diverse and unpredictable series of challenges as they arose.
Rocket recovery: it’s not easy
Even in 2018, SpaceX unintentionally expended Falcon Heavy’s center core, demonstrating that even three dozen successful Falcon 9 and Heavy booster recoveries are not necessarily enough to shine light on or predict all possible modes of failure. Around 7:21 PM (PDT) today, barring a scrubbed launch attempt, the already-flown Falcon 9 booster B1048 – refurbished from landing to launch in just ~74 days – will likely launch and land once more, and most of the world wont even blink and eye. In the eyes of those that don’t or haven’t followed SpaceX obsessively, rocket booster recovery and reuse is to some extent already perceived as routine, logical, and inevitable less than three years after the technology’s first true Kitty Hawk moment.
- One half of SpaceX’s Iridium-6/GRACE-FO just moments before touchdown on the Pacific Ocean. (SpaceX)
- Close. (SpaceX)
- Hans Koenigsmann was extremely excited about the condition of this particular fairing half, and included this photo in his IAC 2018 keynote. (SpaceX)
The point of this brief SpaceX history lesson is to emphasize that fairing recovery is an extremely young technology, even for SpaceX. Before Mr. Steven swooped into existence, SpaceX had begun attempting to softly land payload fairings in the ocean around the start of 2017, and Mr. Steven famously returned to Port of San Pedro with an intact (but unreusable) fairing half in March 2018 after successfully launching Earth-imaging satellite PAZ. Comparing historical apples to present-day oranges, it may be safe to assume that fairing recovery’s Orbcomm-2 moment – Mr. Steven’s first successful catch – is already on the horizon.
In the meantime, it never hurts to remind oneself that – vicarious frustrations aside – observers are likely watching history unfold in real-time once again. SpaceX’s SAOCOM-1A launch webcast will begin around 7PM PDT – 15 or 20 minutes prior to launch – and can be found at the link below.
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
News
SpaceX confirms Starship 15 launch window with massive ambitions
SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:
SpaceX has released a new Starship tower catch animation for the upcoming Flight 15! https://t.co/kStn01Da8u
— Truthful🛰️ (@Truthful_ast) October 20, 2026
This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”
Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.
The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.
The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.
As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.
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Investor's Corner
SpaceX stock gets a slew of price target boosts after bullish earnings call
Wall Street analysts rapidly raised price targets on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported a bullish third quarter for 2026 following the market close on October 20. Shares were sent sharply higher in after-hours and premarket trading.
SpaceX posted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that comfortably topped consensus estimates, which fell near $12.7 billion. The company also posted a net profit of $4.4 billion from a prior-year loss, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion.
More price target movement:
🚀 Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
🚀 Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
🚀 Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
🚀 UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy)
🚀TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
🚀Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
🚀Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Its Super Intelligence (AI) division generated roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest revenue contributor, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year, while the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion on strong subscriber additions that lifted the consumer base to 13.6 million for Starlink.
The Earnings Call proved especially catalytic, as CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, which was far above the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, alongside fourth-quarter capital-expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites including Memphis and Southaven.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end and discussed pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk described relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, with compute pricing supporting payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months.
Additional highlights included Starship’s recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, Starlink pricing and enterprise momentum, rapid Grok Bot adoption, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.
These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases:
- JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
- Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
- Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
- Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
- UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy), and
- TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
- Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
- Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.
Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets.
The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.
Elon Musk
SpaceX showcases exactly how it plans to catch Starship next month
SpaceX played a new Starship Flight 15 simulation showing the ship caught by tower chopsticks.
SpaceX gave its clearest look yet at how it plans to catch a Starship upper stage, playing a roughly 80 second animation of the maneuver during its third quarter earnings webcast on Tuesday. The clip ran under an “Up Next: Ship Catch” banner moments after Elon Musk confirmed that Flight 15, expected next month, will try to catch both the Super Heavy booster and the ship with the launch tower.
The animation opens at ground level, looking up through the launch mount at a tower with its chopstick arms spread wide. It then cuts to the ship gliding back through the atmosphere in its horizontal belly flop position, with its forward and aft flaps steering the descent. A wide shot from the Starbase shoreline follows, where the ship is a small dot in the sky before it swings vertical and drops toward the launch towers. The final shots show the ship sliding down past the top of the tower, a close view of the hardware along its side meeting the arms, and the vehicle hanging in the chopsticks.
SpaceX has released a new Starship tower catch animation for the upcoming Flight 15! https://t.co/kStn01Da8u — Truthful🛰️ (@Truthful_ast) October 20, 2026
Musk called the catch the step that closes Starship’s reuse loop. “If we succeed, it will be the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” he said. He put the odds of success on the first attempt at “more likely than not,” and said SpaceX has “a steady stream of Starship flight attempts through the end of this year” if Flight 15 falls short.
The sequence mirrors work SpaceX has already done with real hardware. In September, Ship 42, the vehicle assigned to Flight 15, was lifted by the Pad 2 chopsticks into a simulated catch position, where crews cycled the arms and connected the ship quick disconnect arm while it hung from the tower. NASASpaceflight has since reported that SpaceX removed Ship 42’s engines before its static fire and sent it back for another cryogenic test.
Gwynne Shotwell covered the regulatory side on the same call. After what she called “significant constructive engagement with the FAA,” SpaceX expects the Flight 15 license “to include return to launch site and tower catch for both stages.” Bringing the ship home means reentering toward land instead of the open ocean, which Musk said in February would only happen once the chance of the ship breaking up over land was very low, after two perfect soft landings at sea.
SpaceX has caught Super Heavy with the tower three times, on Flights 5, 7 and 8, but the ship returns from orbit at far higher speed and has never been caught. Flight 14 on September 28 was the first Starship to reach orbit, and it deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites before splashing down, a mission SpaceX counted as its first revenue flight in the Q3 results it reported Tuesday.
The timing lines up with what Musk told the crowd at Giga Texas earlier this month, when he said Flight 15 would probably launch a little before Thanksgiving and that Flight 16 could refly both stages. On Tuesday’s call he went further, saying Starship should fly weekly at some point in the first half of 2027 and twice weekly or more by the end of next year as SpaceX works toward landing a rocket and launching it again with no refurbishment.





