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SpaceX Falcon 9 nears NASA’s first flight-proven Block 5 launch after static fire delays
After multiple days of delays, many a finger is crossed that SpaceX will be able to perform a critical static fire test of Falcon 9 booster B1056.1 on Friday morning (July 19th).
Falcon 9 B1056 and a fresh upper stage are scheduled to launch Cargo Dragon mission CRS-18 no earlier than 7:35 pm EDT (23:35 UTC), July 21st. As always, SpaceX requires each Falcon 9 rocket to successfully perform a static fire ignition test prior to declaring launch readiness, and B1056 was originally planned to be loaded with propellant and fire its nine Merin 1D engines on Wednesday, July 16th.
After a solid handful of slips, the test has most recently been rescheduled on Friday morning, a delay of 48 hours. SpaceX has demonstrated a three-day turnaround between static fire and launch with Falcon 9 Block 5, but a static fire delay beyond Friday – perhaps even beyond early Friday afternoon – will almost certainly push CRS-18’s launch back a day or two. If not, SpaceX is certainly cutting it close to make the current July 21st date.
In support of Cargo Dragon Commercial Resupply Mission-17 (CRS-17), Falcon 9 B1056 launched for the first time on May 4th, roughly 11 weeks (76 days) ago and 78 days before its planned return to flight. For both SpaceX and NASA, CRS-18 will be a fairly significant launch for a variety of reasons
Falcon2
First and foremost, Falcon 9 B1056 previously supported a NASA Cargo Dragon mission, as described above. Even before the booster successfully landed and returned to port, plans were already in order to essentially keep the booster “in family”, reusing it for NASA launches only. Discussed on Teslarati immediately after the subject was broached during a post-launch press conference, NASA manager Kenny Todd didn’t split hairs.
“Quite frankly, [NASA] had a vested interest in this particular booster. We were gonna require it – the intent is to [reuse B1056 on SpaceX’s upcoming CRS-18 launch] and – potentially – CRS-19.”
Kenny Todd, ISS Operations and Integration Manager, NASA Johnson
Not only will NASA fly Cargo Dragon’s CRS-18 mission on B1056, but the agency is already actively considering reusing the same Falcon 9 booster – assuming a successful launch and landing next week – on CRS-19, SpaceX’s second-to-last Dragon 1 (i.e. Cargo Dragon) launch. If all goes well with CRS-18, CRS-19 could come as early as December 2019, while CRS-20 – likely Dragon 1’s last launch ever – is scheduled no earlier than March 2020 and could certainly make use of B1056.3 if NASA is interested.
Dragon3
Meanwhile, although neither SpaceX or NASA have confirmed it, the Cargo Dragon capsule flight-proven Falcon 9 B1056 will itself be flight-proven – although that’s nothing shocking after a full half-dozen successful launches of reused capsules. What will be exceptional, however, is the likely event that CRS-18 will mark the first time that SpaceX has launched the same Cargo Dragon capsule on its third orbital mission.
Speaking all the way back in summer 2017, now two years distant, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk revealed that Cargo Dragon (Dragon 1) was designed at the outset to be reused three times. Almost exactly 24 months later, SpaceX is likely to prove that that is the case. Based on a list of known Dragon 1 capsules and their serial numbers, SpaceX has already launch and reused all but one of the last seven capsules built and successfully recovered. Capsule 107 (C107) supported CRS-5 in January 2015 and was successfully recovered one month later.
Aside from CRS-7 capsule C109, destroyed in June 2015 during Falcon 9’s first and only in-flight failure, all other capsules (C108-C113) have been successfully launched, recovered, and relaunched. As such, it seems extremely improbable that CRS-5 capsule C107 will be supporting CRS-18. Instead, one of SpaceX’s six twice-flight-proven orbital spacecraft has likely been refurbished for the final time, preparing to become the first orbital-class commercial spacecraft to be reused twice.
Thy Holy Stripe
Finally, it also appears that CRS-18 will mark the debut some sort of on-orbit Falcon upper stage test, hinted at by a grey ring wrapping what looks like just a portion of its fuel (RP-1/kerosene) tank. The objective of this modification is unclear, although chances are good that either NASASpaceflight.com or SpaceX itself will provide at least a bit more information in the coming days.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
