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SpaceX Falcon 9 nears NASA’s first flight-proven Block 5 launch after static fire delays
After multiple days of delays, many a finger is crossed that SpaceX will be able to perform a critical static fire test of Falcon 9 booster B1056.1 on Friday morning (July 19th).
Falcon 9 B1056 and a fresh upper stage are scheduled to launch Cargo Dragon mission CRS-18 no earlier than 7:35 pm EDT (23:35 UTC), July 21st. As always, SpaceX requires each Falcon 9 rocket to successfully perform a static fire ignition test prior to declaring launch readiness, and B1056 was originally planned to be loaded with propellant and fire its nine Merin 1D engines on Wednesday, July 16th.
After a solid handful of slips, the test has most recently been rescheduled on Friday morning, a delay of 48 hours. SpaceX has demonstrated a three-day turnaround between static fire and launch with Falcon 9 Block 5, but a static fire delay beyond Friday – perhaps even beyond early Friday afternoon – will almost certainly push CRS-18’s launch back a day or two. If not, SpaceX is certainly cutting it close to make the current July 21st date.
In support of Cargo Dragon Commercial Resupply Mission-17 (CRS-17), Falcon 9 B1056 launched for the first time on May 4th, roughly 11 weeks (76 days) ago and 78 days before its planned return to flight. For both SpaceX and NASA, CRS-18 will be a fairly significant launch for a variety of reasons
Falcon2
First and foremost, Falcon 9 B1056 previously supported a NASA Cargo Dragon mission, as described above. Even before the booster successfully landed and returned to port, plans were already in order to essentially keep the booster “in family”, reusing it for NASA launches only. Discussed on Teslarati immediately after the subject was broached during a post-launch press conference, NASA manager Kenny Todd didn’t split hairs.
“Quite frankly, [NASA] had a vested interest in this particular booster. We were gonna require it – the intent is to [reuse B1056 on SpaceX’s upcoming CRS-18 launch] and – potentially – CRS-19.”
Kenny Todd, ISS Operations and Integration Manager, NASA Johnson
Not only will NASA fly Cargo Dragon’s CRS-18 mission on B1056, but the agency is already actively considering reusing the same Falcon 9 booster – assuming a successful launch and landing next week – on CRS-19, SpaceX’s second-to-last Dragon 1 (i.e. Cargo Dragon) launch. If all goes well with CRS-18, CRS-19 could come as early as December 2019, while CRS-20 – likely Dragon 1’s last launch ever – is scheduled no earlier than March 2020 and could certainly make use of B1056.3 if NASA is interested.
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Meanwhile, although neither SpaceX or NASA have confirmed it, the Cargo Dragon capsule flight-proven Falcon 9 B1056 will itself be flight-proven – although that’s nothing shocking after a full half-dozen successful launches of reused capsules. What will be exceptional, however, is the likely event that CRS-18 will mark the first time that SpaceX has launched the same Cargo Dragon capsule on its third orbital mission.
Speaking all the way back in summer 2017, now two years distant, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk revealed that Cargo Dragon (Dragon 1) was designed at the outset to be reused three times. Almost exactly 24 months later, SpaceX is likely to prove that that is the case. Based on a list of known Dragon 1 capsules and their serial numbers, SpaceX has already launch and reused all but one of the last seven capsules built and successfully recovered. Capsule 107 (C107) supported CRS-5 in January 2015 and was successfully recovered one month later.
Aside from CRS-7 capsule C109, destroyed in June 2015 during Falcon 9’s first and only in-flight failure, all other capsules (C108-C113) have been successfully launched, recovered, and relaunched. As such, it seems extremely improbable that CRS-5 capsule C107 will be supporting CRS-18. Instead, one of SpaceX’s six twice-flight-proven orbital spacecraft has likely been refurbished for the final time, preparing to become the first orbital-class commercial spacecraft to be reused twice.
Thy Holy Stripe
Finally, it also appears that CRS-18 will mark the debut some sort of on-orbit Falcon upper stage test, hinted at by a grey ring wrapping what looks like just a portion of its fuel (RP-1/kerosene) tank. The objective of this modification is unclear, although chances are good that either NASASpaceflight.com or SpaceX itself will provide at least a bit more information in the coming days.
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Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
A look at Tesla China’s order page shows that new Model 3 LR RWD orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026.
Another Tesla Model 3 variant in China appears to have sold out for January 2026, with the vehicle now showing an estimated delivery date of February 2026 for new orders. This bodes well for the all-electric sedan, which has maintained notable sales despite more affordable rivals like the Xiaomi SU7 and its crossover sibling, the Model Y.
Model 3 LR RWD joins February 2026 queue
A look at Tesla China’s order page for the all-electric sedan shows that new Model 3 Long Range Rear Wheel Drive orders now have an estimated delivery date of February 2026. Priced from RMB 259,500 ($36,810), the LR RWD sits as the second-lowest-priced trim in Tesla China’s four-variant Model 3 lineup. The move follows a similar delivery timeframe for the Model 3 Performance, which remains the most expensive option for the vehicle, as noted in a CNEV Post report.
The estimated delivery dates of the two remaining Model 3 variants remain unchanged for now. The base RWD version, starting at RMB 235,500, and the LR AWD variant, priced from RMB 285,500, both continue to list estimated delivery times of 4-6 weeks. Tesla China, for its part, has continued to list in-stock Model 3 vehicles and is actively encouraging buyers to select inventory units for delivery before the end of the year.
Model Y delays and policy shifts
Delivery timelines for the Model Y in China are also stretching into 2026. All customized Model Y variants now show February 2026 as their estimated delivery date, except for the entry-level version, which still lists January 2026. Tesla has been urging customers since November to prioritize purchasing inventory vehicles, a push aimed at maximizing year-end deliveries.
Timing matters for Chinese buyers due to upcoming changes in government incentives. China’s new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption will be scaled back in 2026, which means customers who take delivery next year could face higher tax costs compared to those who are able to receive vehicles before the end of the year.
As per data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla recorded retail sales of 73,145 vehicles in November, down 0.47% year over year. From January through November, Tesla’s retail sales in China totaled 531,855 units, a 7.37% year-over-year drop.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
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Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Another Tesla Model 3 variant sold out for January 2026 in China
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
